Mass grave complexity effects on the
minimum number of individuals
estimation
Igor Vaduvesković & Marija Djuric
Forensic Science, Medicine and
Pathology
ISSN 1547-769X
Forensic Sci Med Pathol
DOI 10.1007/s12024-019-00186-3
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s12024-019-00186-3
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Mass grave complexity effects on the minimum number
of individuals estimation
Igor Vaduvesković 1
&
Marija Djuric 1
Accepted: 11 September 2019
# Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract
This study analyses the accuracy of the minimum number of individuals (MNI) estimation in the context of commingled human
remains recovered from secondary mass graves related to the war in Bosnia in 1995. It is based on data from five secondary mass
grave sites of different sizes and different numbers of unassociated body parts. The study is centered on a comparison of MNI
estimation from original excavations with the actual number of individuals buried in particular graves, obtained via DNA
identification of excavated remains. The aim was to investigate how the complexity of a mass grave reflects on MNI estimation
accuracy. In order to quantify mass grave complexity (level of commingling), a ratio between complete bodies and isolated body
parts from the same context was introduced. Results show that, in the secondary mass graves involved in the study, MNI
estimation inaccuracy varies in the range from 54% to 513% depending on the size of the grave itself and the amount of “loose
elements” distributed in it. Correlation between MNI inaccuracy and body to body parts ratio shows a strong relationship
indicating that MNI (in)accuracy is largely dependent on the number of loose elements related to complete bodies from the same
context.
Keywords Forensic science . Forensic anthropology . Minimum number of individuals . Secondary mass graves . Commingled
human remains
Introduction
The minimum number of individuals (MNI) technique, by
definition, shows what the minimal number of specimens represented in assemblages is, not the real number or necessarily
the closest value to the real number, but the smallest number.
However, if we want to use MNI as a bench mark for further
forensic investigation, large discrepancies between MNI and
the real number of individuals in the assemblage make MNI
calculation less useful and inaccurate.
Minimum number of individuals estimate, as a quantitative technique that involves determining the most commonly
occurring skeletal element of a taxon in an assemblage, was
* Marija Djuric
[email protected]
Igor Vaduvesković
[email protected]
1
Laboratory for Anthropology, Institute of Anatomy, Faculty of
Medicine, University of Belgrade, Dr Subotica 4/2, Belgrade 11000,
Serbia
first applied in paleontology by Stock and Howard [1, 2].
Later, MNI was used in zoological and zooarchaeological
studies from the middle of the last century [3, 4]. The technique has constantly evolved, particularly adding a probability calculation to account for the variations in bone recovery
[4, 5]. Further developments in the MNI estimation included
the use of osteometry for bone elements matching in order to
separate individuals from commingled deposits [6].
Commingled skeletal remains refer to the mixing of whole
or fragmented skeletal elements of two or more individuals in
a single context [7].
Establishing MNI is the most important venture in any
commingled assemblage [8, 9] and is often the first task of
an investigation [10]. An accurate estimate is important for
scientific, legal and ethical reasons [5–7, 11, 12]. In forensic
practice MNI is important because it estimates the size of the
population represented in the grave which may indicate the
identity of the group of victims and have an impact on an
ongoing investigation process. For example, if there is information that different group of people containing various numbers of individuals were killed and buried in mass graves, the
field MNI estimation should immediately imply what group of
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killed individuals is in question. Also, accurate MNI prior to
the end of fieldwork serves to correctly assess the amount of
additional forensic work needed, facilities required and associated expenses in further investigation.
Although MNI has been used in routine work for decades,
according to our knowledge there are no papers published on
the topic of MNI estimation inaccuracy in secondary mass
graves. Even in the commingled contexts, not necessarily
from secondary deposits, there are no assemblages for which
the original number of individuals is known prior to
commingling [13]. This issue makes assessing an MNI estimation inaccuracy impossible prior to the application of the
DNA identification techniques that have been used in this
research for determining the real number of individuals
buried.
While primary inhumation sites can produce commingling
mostly due to taphonomic factors, secondary inhumation sites
present a real challenge because commingling is more severe
due to the relocation of bodies. According to Jesse and
Skinner, a primary inhumation site or the primary deposition
is the site at which remains were originally buried [14].
Primary sites have lower rates of commingling. Secondary
inhumation sites are sites containing remains that were exhumed from the primary grave and then relocated to a different grave [14]. During the process of redepositing to the secondary grave, remains become severely commingled and
disarticulated while smaller bone fragments are often lost.
Some sites may contain both primary and secondary inhumations, and are referred to as a multiple deposit interment site these sites are even more commingled due to the disturbance
of the original gravesite [14].
Site formation process, especially manner of mass grave
deposition such as using heavy machinery (mostly front end
loader) for removing bodies from execution site to the primary mass grave, leads to disarticulations of the bodies that
cause commingling and possibly deposition of one single
individual to different graves. Disarticulation of the bodies
can also occur before deposition as a result of the sanitation
of the battlefield after combat or because of death incurred by
heavy weapons such as mortar, grenades, anti-aircraft gun,
tank or minefield in which case even primary graves can
show heavy commingling. Furthermore, looting of graves
i.e. removing deposited bodies from primary graves to different locations, leads to heavy disarticulations and comingling
of the bodies and to situations where body parts of one single
individual end up in one or several secondary mass grave
locations. Also, various taphonomic processes can lead to
disarticulation and dislocation from the original position
[15, 16]. All of these factors make MNI estimation harder
and leads to inaccurate MNI estimations, particularly in cases
of secondary mass graves in which most of the issues mentioned above are commonly observed and proper excavation
is particularly challenging.
In the context of heavily commingled secondary mass
graves from Srebrenica-related cases in Bosnia osteometric
matching would not work because of the sheer size of the
assemblage and the fact that corresponding bone elements
often happen to be located in a different burial location.
Even if the above mentioned problem is overcome,
osteometry and morphological matching of sides or joints
are rendered much less reliable in the case of Srebrenica and
similar sites due to the extraordinary homogeneity of the victims (mostly adult males) [17]. To overcome this reassociation issue and achieve identification of individuals
scattered between mass graves, DNA samples were taken
from excavated cases in order to match bone elements
scattered between graves with reference blood samples provided by genetically related family members [18].
Data from this forensic process enabled us to compare MNI
estimations from various sites with the results of DNA identification from corresponding sites in order to calculate MNI
estimation reliability. Furthermore, discrepancies between
MNI and DNA data (MNI inaccuracy) in relation to the
amount of disarticulated and isolated body parts will help us
to understand how the complexity of a mass grave affects
estimation of MNI. In order to quantify the complexity of the
mass grave we introduced the ratio between disarticulated/
isolated bones and (mostly) complete bodies.
The aim of this paper is to measure the result of factors
impacting the size of MNI inaccuracy when dealing with
commingled remains in order to determine the basis for an
MNI estimation improvement.
Materials and methods
Human skeletal remains for this study were derived from five
secondary Srebrenica related mass grave sites. Sites involved in
this study represent secondary mass graves from the exYugoslavia civil war, and were deposited in mid-1995 in
Bosnia, at the territory of the present day Republica Srpska.
The downfall of former Yugoslavia started in 1991 with the
secession of the former Republic of Slovenia and the most severe hostilities took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina lasting
from 1992 to 1995 [19]. Shortly after the armed conflict in
Bosnia the International Criminal Tribunal for the former
Yugoslavia (ICTY) started to excavate mass grave sites, and
after 2000 the International Commission on Missing Persons
(ICMP) took over the forensic process and the implementation
of DNA identifications. Numerous mass graves containing
Bosnian Muslim male victims were excavated in the region of
Srebrenica. For this study we used five mass graves (Map 1)
with available anthropological data and with known secondary
site formation processes (bodies relocated from primary locations to other mass graves) [20]. According to the data presented
during ICTY prosecutions, the relocation was conducted with
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Map 1 Small portion of the south-east part of Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) with marked mass grave sites. Embedded map represents the position of
BiH within former Yugoslavia (mass graves marked with red rectangle) and position of former Yugoslavia within Europe.
heavy machinery (front end loader) several months after primary deposition. A similar situation, but characterized by less body
dismemberment and mixing of body parts, was recorded from
Batajnica sites in Serbia, which were also created as secondary
mass graves using heavy machinery [21].
The excavation of the sites included in this study was conducted between 2006 and 2008 by the Bosnian Federal
Commission for Missing Persons aided by the ICMP. The sites
were classified as small, medium or large secondary mass
graves, the size refering to the quantity of case numbers assigned
during excavation, not to the dimensions of the grave pits.
In the ICMP protocol case numbers for human remains get
designated as B (body) if they represent a complete body (or at
least 75% of the body), BP (body part) for body parts
representing upper body parts, lower body parts and other
articulated remains of one individual, or GBP (general body
part) for isolated bones that did not articulate with any remains
in the immediate vicinity. The total cases of human remains
are all case numbers (B + BP + GBP) that are assigned to human remains in a particular mass grave. Artifacts were not
considered in this study.
DNA identification was carried out by the ICMP and the
general data about reassociations and identification numbers,
arranged by the excavation location names, are publicly available on the ICMP web site [22]. The identification process is
based on the comparison of blood samples from family members
of the missing and DNA profiles from bone samples recovered
from the mass graves. DNA identifications of new identities
represent cases of missing individuals identified for the first time
in the particular mass grave. DNA reassociation represents cases
of individuals whose other body parts, usually designated as BP
or GBP, had already been found in other graves.
Sites involved in the study are as follows.
&
&
&
&
Snagovo 04 (SNA04ZVO) had 156 cases of human remains: 92 B, 64 BP, and 0 GBP. MNI is 104 based on the
presence of the distal third of right tibia. DNA profiling
obtained 88 new identities and 72 re-associations, yielding
a total of 160 different individuals (i.e. number of individuals represented in the grave with at least one body part).
Cancari Road 08 (KAM08ZVO) contained 340 cases of
human remains: 22 B, 318 BP, and 0 GBP. MNI for this
site is 84 based on left tibia. 50 new identities were obtained by DNA and 273 re-associations, a total of 323
different individuals (i.e. number of individuals represented in the grave with at least one body part).
Cancari Road 04 (KAM04ZVO) contained 393 cases of
human remains: 145 B, 218 BP, and 30 GBP. MNI for this
site is 189 based on complete right femora. DNA identification obtained 183 new identities and 236 reassociations.
Therefore, the number of different individuals represented
in the grave with at least one body part is 419.
Cancari Road 06 (KAM06ZVO) (Table 1) had 1133 cases
of human remains assigned: 29 B, 854 BP and 250 GBP.
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Table 1
Summary table of secondary mass graves cases, DNA identifications, and MNI
Site
Snagovo 04
C. Road 08
C. Road 04
C.Road 06
C.Road 10
Total cases of human remains
B (Bodies)
BP (Body Parts)
GBP (General BP)
DNA new identities
DNA reassociations
Total DNA-based identifications (new ident+reassociation)
MNI
156
92
64
0
88
72
160
104
340
22
318
0
50
273
323
84
393
145
218
30
183
236
419
189
1133
29
854
250
182
1063
1245
203
1344
146
1012
186
378
774
1152
368
&
MNI is 203, based on the presence of right tibia. DNA
profiling obtained 182 new identities and 1063
reassociations, making a total of 1245 different individuals
(i.e. number of individuals represented in the grave with at
least one body part).
Cancari Road 10 (KAM10ZVO) was represented by a
total of 1344 cases of human remains: 146 B, 1012 BP
and 186 GBP. MNI for the site is 368 based on two thirds
or more of right femur while the number of individuals
represented in the grave with at least one body part is 1152
(378 new identities +774 reassociations). New DNA
identities usually correspond to largely complete bodies excavated in a particular grave. DNA
reassociations are mostly related to small body parts
(e.g. lower arm or foot) that are buried in a different
grave(s) than the majority of the skeleton. So, the sum
of reassociations from all the graves above does not
mean that it is the sum of people buried because one
person may be represented with many reassociated
body parts from different mass graves. Total DNAbased identifications are the sum of new identities
and reassociations. Total DNA-based identifications
shows us how many cases of different individuals
are represented in a particular grave. DNA data are
provided from the International Commission on
Missing Persons (ICMP) public database [22] and
MNI data were obtained during the mass graves excavation process conducted by the ICMP (including, at
the time, the first author of this study) in the period
2006 to 2008 (reports available at the Republic of
Srpska Center for the Research of War, War Crimes
and the Search for Missing Persons).
The level of complexity within mass graves may be represented by the amount of unassociated body parts within the
Table 2
grave compared to the number of complete bodies in that
particular grave. In this study, we introduced a specific proportion: a body to body parts ratio (index of commingling),
which represents the quantitative relationship between largely
complete bodies and unassociated body parts within a particular burial. The body to body parts ratio is calculated by dividing the number of complete bodies by the sum of
disarticulated and isolated elements (B/BP + GBP) from the
same context. A smaller ratio value indicates more
disarticulated elements in the grave, greater complexity of
the site, and possible sites of secondary or tertiary origin.
In order to investigate how mass grave complexity affects the minimum number of individuals estimation we
calculated MNI inaccuracy by comparing MNI estimation
for a particular site derived at the time of excavation with
the total number of DNA profiles obtained at a later date
for the same site. DNA profiles serve as a reference point
representing the real number of individuals buried. In order
to get percentages we used the following formula: MNI
i n a c c u r a c y = ( ( To t a l D N A - M N I ) / M N I ) ) * 1 0 0 .
Discrepancies between the minimum number of individual
estimation and the real number of individuals buried (MNI
inaccuracy) and the body to body parts ratio were tested for
correlation by Pearson product-moment correlation.
Results
Calculated MNI inaccuracy and the body to body parts ratio of
the investigated sites are shown in Table 2 and the correlation
between them is presented in Fig. 1. Data shows that more
disarticulated body parts and isolated bones compared to complete bodies found in the grave indicate greater MNI estimation inaccuracy.
Summary table of MNI inaccuracy and body to body parts ratio calculations
Site
Snagovo 04
C. Road 08
C. Road 04
C.Road 06
C.Road 10
MNI inaccuracy
Body to body parts ratio(B/(BP + GBP))
54%
1.438
385%
0.069
222%
0.584
513%
0.026
313%
0.122
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Fig. 1 Linear function of B/BP ratio and MNI inaccuracy. Linear
equation: y = a + bx
Calculated MNI inaccuracies for different sites varied from
54% to 513%. In order to assess the cause of inaccuracy in
MNI estimation we correlated MNI inaccuracies for each site
(variable 1 = 54%, 385%, 222%, 513%, 313%) with Body to
body parts ratio for each site (variable 2 = 1.438, 0.069, 0.584,
0.026, 0.122) using Pearson’s correlation. Correlation is calculated with EZR (Easy R) software and verified with Origin.
Results show strong negative correlation with a correlation
coefficient = − 0.922 and a 95% confidence interval. The confidence interval (CI) is −0.995 to −0.214 and the p value is =
0.02575, indicating a significant correlation. Negative correlation, in this case, means that MNI inaccuracy increases as
the body to body parts ratio decreases. It is worth noting that
Fig. 2 Non-Linear function of B/BP ratio and MNI inaccuracy. Nonðx−xc Þ2
w2
A ffi −2
linear equation: y ¼ y0 þ p
e
π
w
2
Fig. 3 Exponential function of B/BP ratio and MNI inaccuracy.
Exponential equation: y ¼ y0 þ AeR0 x
Spearman’s rank correlation, which is also able to be used in
this case, gives even more impressive results with a p value =
0.01667.
Three types of relationships between the variables were tested; linear, non-linear and exponential function (Figs. 1, 2 and 3).
Discussion
Although a linear equation is the simplest to interpret it does
not describe accurately the relationship between B/BP ratio
and MNI error. The extrapolated line of linear correlation in
Fig. 1 intersects the B/BP ratio axis at around 1.35 at the same
time indicating 0% of MNI error on the other axis. This is not
an accurate prediction because the calculation for the highest
dot on the graph (Snagovo 04) shows a higher ratio (1.438) at
54% of MNI error. At the other end, the line of correlation
intersects the MNI error axis around 440%, which is less than
513% (Cancari Road 06), also indicating a low prediction
accuracy.
As shown in Fig. 2, a non-linear relationship describes the
low end distribution of the B/BP ratio accurately where MNI
errors are highest. The line of correlation passes through the
highest MNI error (513% for Cancari Road 06) point but does
not intersect the horizontal axis afterwards. Rather, the line
flattens and becomes parallel to the MNI error axis, leaving
space for extrapolations even within lower ratios and higher
errors than used in this data set. On the other end, where the
ratios are the highest and the errors lowest, the extrapolated
line of correlation seems to be even less accurate than with a
linear fit, achieving 0% error at a ratio around 1.2 B/BP.
Figure 3 shows that an exponential equation dose not describe accurately the low end of the distribution. The line of
correlation intersects the horizontal axis at 475% (somewhat
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better than linear function) which is less than the highest 513%
from the data set. On the other hand, with further extrapolation,
the line of correlation would intersect the vertical axis at value
of 2 showing 0% of error on the other axis. A value of 2 on the
B/BP axis would correspond, for example, with 100 complete
bodies and 50 body parts found in the grave and according to
the exponential function of this data set that is a threshold for
accurate MNI assessment. Any value below 2 can count with
particular error in estimation.
In situations where values of B/BP are large an exponential
equation works best and when they are small a non-linear
relationship has a better fit. To describe both ends of the spectrum with single equation, the data set needs to include a larger
input with less comingled samples. This is important for prediction of MNI error because if function is not adequate prediction will not be accurate.
In general, the results of the study indicate that the complexity of a mass grave has significant effects on the accuracy
of the minimum number of individuals estimation.
Ideally, one case number represents one individual. This is
a common occurrence within primary burials but with secondary burial sites, one case number might represent just a small
body part, e.g. right foot or left ulna and radius. These secondary sites also generate a large number of unassociated
single bones that cannot be designated as body parts because
of their lack of articulation so they are usually recorded as
general body parts. Complexity rises considerably with tertiary mass graves or multiple deposit interment sites [14].
The majority of individuals in the secondary mass graves
considered in this study are represented with just a body part or
even with a single bone while the remaining body parts are
scattered in different mass grave locations. These disarticulated
cases, which are often the only evidence of a person in particular grave, prove elusive for MNI because they are typically
not represented with long bones, which are most frequently
used in MNI estimation (Fig. 4).
Generally, there are several problems with establishing accurate MNI in comingled mass graves. Often, the basic problem is
a lack of a proper archaeological methodology involved in the
excavation of mass graves. Application of a strict stratigraphic,
unit-based methodology, among other things, strongly reduces
the level of body disarticulation during recovery [21]. It has been
shown from two Batajnica mass grave sites that the stratigraphic
excavation method compared to the so-called pedestal method
gives better results [23]. Optimal results are obtained via a combination of the spatial analysis of mass grave mapping data, and
the stratigraphic approach to the excavations [24].
The disparity that can occur in calculating numbers of individuals using osteological methods of assessment could be
substantial [13]. Also, the use of different techniques can produce disparities in estimation [25], but in essence, MNI estimation validity depends on the percentage of the individuals
represented by the excavated body elements [26–28].
Fig. 4 Commingled bones from Cancari Road 10
The results of the present study demonstrate that a body to
body parts ratio (B/BP + GBP) when compared to MNI inaccuracy shows a significant correlation i.e. the smallest body to
body parts ratio correlates to the largest MNI inaccuracy,
meaning that more disarticulated bones in relation to complete
bodies (more complex site) means larger inaccuracy in MNI
estimation. This is logical but needed quantification to numerically determine what proportion of disarticulated elements
compared to complete bodies gives a particular level of inaccuracy so that we could use this correction in complex sites in
the future and increase the MNI estimation accuracy.
All the sites used in this paper for analysis are of the same
type (secondary ramp mass graves) and were excavated/
analyzed by the same crew in similar conditions, limiting the
number of variables that may have an impact on our research.
Nevertheless, the study is limited by the relatively small sample and could be expanded with more comingled sites from
different contexts in order to improve the accuracy of the
presented method. With more samples calculated from less
comingled sites and from primary sites it would be possible
to safely interpolate both ends of the data with single function.
Currently, a non-linear function is better with low values of
B/BP and an exponential function works well with higher
B/BP ratio values. The function predicts what the inaccuracy
of the MNI would be for different values of the B/BP index.
So, based on data from the B/BP ratio calculation, a researcher
could calibrate MNI accordingly and improve the estimation.
Calculating the ratio of body parts to bodies could also be
useful for the excavation process itself. If, during excavation, the index value indicates that a mass grave is complex,
subsequent excavation should proceed slowly and carefully,
with as many items as possible recorded “in-situ” and perhaps more importantly, the collection of samples for DNA
based identifications should be expanded even to general
body parts.
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Key points
1. We investigated the MNI accuracy of five secondary mass
graves using anthropological data and DNA identifications.
2. A body to body part ratio was introduced to assist in
quantifying the complexity of the mass grave.
3. Quantification of the complexity of a mass grave allows
determination of how the complexity influences the accuracy of MNI.
4. There was a significant correlation between the body to
body parts ratio and the MNI (in)accuracy.
5. This correlation could be used to improve the accuracy of
MNI and thus improve the methodology of excavations.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Acknowledgements This study was supported by ministry of science of
republic of Serbia, grant no. 45005.
Compliance with ethical standards
15.
16.
Conflict of interest There are no conflicts of interest.
Human participants and/or animals Living human participants and/or
animals were not subjects of the conducted research.
17.
Informed consent Informed consent was not applicable to this study,
only osteological material involved.
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