The inland tanker sector in the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA)-Rhine region has the newest and... more The inland tanker sector in the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA)-Rhine region has the newest and most modern inland tankers in the world of shipping sector. The sector is characterized by a dynamic and a volatile market, on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, the market is dynamic with many new and large tank barges that are added to the fleet. Moreover, the total tank barge market is characterized by high volatility on the supply side (due to fluctuating water levels on the river Rhine). On the demand side, the demand is derived from two main sub-sectors. The first one is the mineral sector (crude oil, fuels and fuel derivatives), and the second one is the chemical sector. Hence, the volatility in demand arises from the fuel trade trends and the crude oil price. The main objective of this paper is to provide an insight into the inland tank barge sector and to identify the factors that are impacting the transport volume of the tank barge sector by means of an error correction model (ECM). Moreover, a forecast for the potential demand is made based on 3 scenarios.
Transportation Research Part A-policy and Practice, Nov 1, 2018
The decision to provide new or additional capacities in the ports is challenging since it should ... more The decision to provide new or additional capacities in the ports is challenging since it should be supported by a growing demand, which require modelling and forecasting the demand of container throughput. This paper develops an instrument which assists the ports' infrastructure investment-decision-making. A three-step approach is developed by combining the autoregressive distributed lag model with economic scenarios to capture the potential impact of specific risks. The empirical analysis is based on an annual time series (1995-2017) for the total container throughput measured in twenty-foot equivalent units for the main ports within the Hamburg-Le Havre (H-LH) range and a number of economic indices. The study shows that there exists a longrun relationship between the trade indices of EU19 and the total container throughput. The empirical model estimates that the elasticity of the container throughput in the H-LH range to trade indices is about 1.4 on average, and it shows that the moment at which congestion emerges depends strongly on the specific scenario considered.
The relation between transportation and economic activity is complex and interrelated. From this ... more The relation between transportation and economic activity is complex and interrelated. From this complexity arises the difficulty of forecasting the port throughput, which plays an essential part in planning the port operations, not only for the port stakeholders but also for the development of hinterland activities and connectivity network. The aim of the univariate method used in this paper is to estimate short-term forecasting and to provide initial insight of the stochastic process for further research in the multiple regression analyses. The SARIMA model is found to be quite appropriate for the container throughput since seasonality exists in the time series. The advantage of the univariate method is that it is independent of other variables, provide a generic and a simple model that can be updated frequently and the model can be applied to other ports.
European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
River Information Services (RIS) are harmonized digital services that support safety, transport a... more River Information Services (RIS) are harmonized digital services that support safety, transport and traffic management in the inland navigation. RIS refer mainly to four key technologies such as Vessel Tracking and Tracing (VTT) with onboard Inland Automatic Identification System transponders (Inland AIS), Electronic Reporting International (ERI), Notices to Skipper (NtS) and Inland Electronic Chart Display and Information System (Inland ECDIS). These key technologies were developed during the nineties and received in Europe a regulatory framework through the Directive EC/2005/44 (the RIS-Directive). In 2009, most EU Member States had implemented the Directive. One of the claimed benefits of the implementation of RIS relates to a growing performance of inland navigation. In this paper, the impact of RIS on the performance of inland navigation is analyzed via a structural break cointegration approach, followed by an Error Correction Model (ECM) estimation. The empirical analysis show...
Port policy makers rely on demand traffic forecasts to support the decisions related to operation... more Port policy makers rely on demand traffic forecasts to support the decisions related to operation and future port infrastructure investments. It is a challenge to match capacity to demand. On the one hand, they face the risk of costly excess capacity, and on the other hand, under-capacity causes loss of market share. In addition, the volatility and uncertainty of the global economy, and, consequently, of the maritime trade and port sector impose a challenge to modelling and forecasting container throughput. The main research question of this thesis is which model to use to forecast the container throughput at the port level? The aim of the thesis is to provide an instrument to support stakeholders in making short-term operational decisions and long-term planning and investment decisions. This is achieved by developing quantitative models using a time series approach that analyses, identifies and quantifies the relationship between economic activity and container throughput at the po...
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Papers by Yasmine Rashed