Details about Carlos A. Medel

E-mail:
Postal address:	Agustinas 1180, Santiago 8340454
Workplace:	Instituto de Economía (Institute of Economics), Facultad de Ciencia Económicas y Administrativas (School of Economics and Business Administration), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (Pontifical Catholic University of Chile), (more information at EDIRC) Banco Central de Chile (Central Bank of Chile), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Carlos A. Medel.

Last updated 2026-04-29. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pme357

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Working Papers

2026

1. Un sistema de proyección de demanda por efectivo en Chile: Actualización y propuesta
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile

2025

2. Exogenous Influences on Long-term Inflation Expectation Deviations: Evidence from Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
   See also Journal Article Exogenous influences on long-term inflation expectation deviations: Evidence from Chile, Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2025) (2025)
3. This Time is Global: Synchronisation in Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile

2021

4. Forecasting Brazilian Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Predictive Role of Trading Partners
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
5. Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within a Consumer Perceptions Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile

2020

6. Does the Exposure to the Business Cycle Improve Consumer Perceptions for Forecasting? Microdata Evidence from Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)

2018

7. Can Economic Perception Surveys Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile?
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?, Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2019) View citations (1) (2019)
8. Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile, Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2017

9. Determinantes de la Inflación de Servicios en Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
10. FinTech y el Futuro de la Banca Central Central de Chile
    Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
11. Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2016)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy, Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2017) View citations (4) (2017)
12. Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015)
    See also Journal Article Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2020) View citations (4) (2020)

2016

13. An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    See also Journal Article An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies*, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2017) (2017)
14. Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach, International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
15. Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-Based Modelling After the Financial Crisis
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015) View citations (2)
16. Un Análisis de la Capacidad Predictiva del Precio del Cobre sobre la Inflación Global
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Un análisis de la capacidad predictiva del precio del cobre sobre la inflación global, Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2016) View citations (2) (2016)

2015

17. A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
18. Fuelling Future Prices: Oil Price and Global Inflation
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (5)
19. Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (8)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015) View citations (6)
20. Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
21. The Out-of-Sample Performance of An Exact Median-Unbiased Estimator for the Near-Unity Ar(1)Model
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (8)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article The out-of-sample performance of an exact median-unbiased estimator for the near-unity AR(1) model, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals (2016) View citations (1) (2016)

2014

22. A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA, Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer (2018) View citations (1) (2018)
23. Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas
    (Classical Probability of Overfitting with Information Criteria: Estimations with Chilean Macroeconomic Series)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2014)
    See also Journal Article Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2015) View citations (5) (2015)
24. The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2016) View citations (19) (2016)
25. The Typical Spectral Shape of An Economic Variable: A Visual Guide with 100 Examples
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2014) View citations (2)

2012

26. Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)
    See also Journal Article Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2013) View citations (8) (2013)
27. Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (13)
28. Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
29. How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (5)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP, Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. (2013) View citations (5) (2013)
30. ¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)

2011

31. Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur
    Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
32. Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena, Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
33. Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: a Case for Chile
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
34. The Effects of Global Warming on Fisheries
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)

2010

35. Proyección Agregada y Desagregada del PIB Chileno con Procedimientos Automatizados de Series de Tiempo
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)

2009

36. Efectos del Calentamiento Global sobre la Industria Pesquera
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile

2007

37. Guía de Ejercicios: Introducción a la Macroeconomía
    (Exercises Guide: Principles of Macroeconomics)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

Journal Articles

2025

1. Exogenous influences on long-term inflation expectation deviations: Evidence from Chile
   Central Bank Review, 2025, 25, (supplement)
   See also Working Paper Exogenous Influences on Long-term Inflation Expectation Deviations: Evidence from Chile, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2025) (2025)

2022

2. Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within an EmploymentSurvey: Microdata Evidence from Chile
   Revista Economía, 2022, 45, (89), 184-216

2020

3. Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis
   Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, 2020, 35, (2), 57-90 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2017) (2017)

2019

4. Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?
   Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2019, 22, (3), 034-097 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Can Economic Perception Surveys Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile?, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2018

5. A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA
   Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2018, 14, (1), 47-87 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA, MPRA Paper (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
6. An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile
   Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2018, 21, (2), 128-152 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2018) View citations (3) (2018)
7. Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach
   International Economic Journal, 2018, 32, (3), 331-371