Paper 2026/1467

Quantum-Safe Cryptography: A Migration Framework for Legacy Systems Toward NIST PQC Standards with the Crypto-Agility Readiness Score

Abstract

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standardisation reached a pivotal milestone in August 2024 with the release of NIST FIPS 203 (ML-KEM) and FIPS 204 (ML-DSA), yet the vast majority of deployed public-key infrastructure continues to rely on RSA-2048 and Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman (ECDH), both vulnerable to Shor's algorithm on a cryptographically relevant quantum computer. The Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) threat renders this risk operationally present: adversaries may archive ciphertext today for future decryption once a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC) becomes available. This paper proposes the Crypto-Agility Readiness Score (CARS), a five-dimension weighted composite index for assessing PQC migration readiness in legacy systems across PKI, TLS, and HSM environments. CARS operationalises five dimensions -- Inventory Completeness, Algorithm Compliance, Architectural Decoupling, Toolchain Readiness, and Governance & Compliance Alignment -- with weights derived via a two-round Delphi process with 12 senior migration engineers. In an empirical evaluation of 43 open-source cryptographic software repositories, mean CARS values were 24.9 +/- 9.5 (Legacy Crypto Libraries), 25.8 +/- 8.2 (PKI/Certificate Management), 39.7 +/- 15.2 (HSM/PKCS11 Middleware), 47.2 +/- 16.5 (TLS 1.3 Hybrid), and 47.5 +/- 11.1 (PQC Native; overall 34.1 +/- 15.0, n=43). A notable result is that PQC reference implementations score in the At-Risk range despite high Algorithm Compliance (d2 >= 0.61), because Architectural Decoupling (d3) is near zero, confirming that algorithmic presence alone does not imply organisational migration readiness. Category differences are statistically significant (Kruskal-Wallis H(4) = 17.55, p = 0.0015, epsilon^2 = 0.357, large effect). Construct validity is supported by a moderate convergent Spearman correlation between Algorithm Compliance and Toolchain Readiness (rho = 0.558, p < 0.001, n = 43) and discriminant independence from Architectural Decoupling (rho = -0.031, p = 0.843). A longitudinal case study on oqs-provider (v0.3.0 to v0.6.0) demonstrates that CARS tracks real migration progress (Delta CARS = +21 pts). Microbenchmarks show ML-KEM-768 completes a full KEM cycle in 0.28 ms versus 2.87 ms for RSA-2048 (10.2x faster); authors' own measurements on Apple M1 Pro ARM64 (liboqs-python v0.15.0, n=10,000) confirm the ratio is preserved (M1 Pro: 0.051 ms full KEM cycle). A hybrid TLS 1.3 handshake (X25519MLKEM768) adds approximately 1.29 ms incremental overhead over ECDHE-only. CARS may support structured prioritisation of migration efforts; external predictive validation against migration outcomes remains future work.

Note: Preprint submitted concurrently to IEEE Transactions on Dependable and Secure Computing (TDSC). Replication package available at https://github.com/ufka/Quantum-safe-cryptography-migration-framework