Papers by Caesar Cororaton
Asian Development Review
Average total factor productivity growth (TFPG) for the Philippine economy is negative, indicatin... more Average total factor productivity growth (TFPG) for the Philippine economy is negative, indicating that it has not been the source of growth in the Philippines. However, TFPG estimates showed an increasing trend in the 1990s when major economic reforms were implemented. The educational level of the labor force has improved consistently since the 1960s. However, based on the decomposition analysis the paper finds that its contribution to TFPG has declined.
Who benefits from the tariff reforms launched by the Philippine government from 1994-2000? On the... more Who benefits from the tariff reforms launched by the Philippine government from 1994-2000? On the basis of the results of his simulation runs, the author of this Policy Notes suggests that tariff reduction is generally pro-poor as shown by the drop in poverty incidence as a whole due to the increase in factor prices and decline in consumer prices. However, the simulation results also indicate that there is a bias in favor of factors employed in the manufacturing sector as industry expanded while agriculture contracted. More details are shown in this Policy Notes.unemployment, income distribution, computable general equilibrium (CGE), poverty, tariff reform
What may happen if the quantitative restriction (QR) on rice, which puts a limit to the volume of... more What may happen if the quantitative restriction (QR) on rice, which puts a limit to the volume of rice imports entering the country, is removed by the end of this year? What are the effects on the local rice industry? How about on the poverty situation in the Philippines? On income distribution and on prices? The author presents the results of his simulation runs in looking at these effects.computable general equilibrium (CGE), agriculture sector, poverty, rice sector, Philippines
Philippines: A computable general-equilibrium (CGE) analysis1
constitutes studies that are preliminary and subject to further revisions. They are be-ing circul... more constitutes studies that are preliminary and subject to further revisions. They are be-ing circulated in a limited number of cop-ies only for purposes of soliciting com-ments and suggestions for further refine-ments. The studies under the Series are unedited and unreviewed. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not neces-sarily reflect those of the Institute. Not for quotation without permission from the author(s) and the Institute.
Dlsu Business & Economics Review, 2015
Over the years, deforestation in the Philippines resulted in significant reduction in forest cove... more Over the years, deforestation in the Philippines resulted in significant reduction in forest cover. Between 1990 and 2013, the Philippines has lost 3.8 million hectares of its forest. This study carries out a quantitative assessment of the potential economic and poverty impacts of the NGP using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. In the assessment, a CGE model is specified, calibrated and used to simulate three scenarios: (i) a baseline or a business-as-usual scenario that incorporates the current forest deterioration in the Philippines; (ii) a full NGP scenario which implements a reforestation program that halts and reverses the reduction in the country’s forest cover; and (iii) a partial NGP scenario where only half of the 1.5 million hectare target reforestation is achieved. The assessment indicates that the NGP will result in an improvement in the overall output of the economy. The production of agricultural crops (palay, coconut, sugar, and other agriculture) improves...
Ifpri Discussion Papers, 2008
Notices 1 Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Direct... more Notices 1 Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Director General's Office of IFPRI were merged into one IFPRI-wide Discussion Paper series. The new series begins with number 00689, reflecting the prior publication of 688 discussion papers within the dispersed series. The earlier series are available on IFPRI's website at www.ifpri.org/pubs/otherpubs.htm#dp. 2 IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results. They have not been subject to formal external reviews managed by IFPRI's Publications Review Committee but have been reviewed by at least one internal and/or external reviewer. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment.
In the past one and a half decades, the Philippine government pursued major economic policy refor... more In the past one and a half decades, the Philippine government pursued major economic policy reforms. One of the key focused areas is the trade sector. Policy reforms included tariff reduction, simplification of tariff structure, and tariffication of quantitative restrictions. While some of the reforms were pursued unilaterally, others were done under various multilateral agreements such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), and regional agreements under the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) such as the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFT A). This paper aims to analyze the effects of the trade reforms, particularly tariff policies, on income distribution and welfare. The paper employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to Philippine data in the analysis. vii
This paper discusses the structure of the Philippine computable general equilibrium model (PCGEM)... more This paper discusses the structure of the Philippine computable general equilibrium model (PCGEM). The model is a medium-sized CGE model of the Philippine economy. It disaggregates the production sector into 34 sectors. It incorporates 3 types of factor inputs: labor, variable capital and capital. The household sector is grouped in decile. Production differentiation is introduced in imports and exports. PCGEM is a neoclassical CGE model, with price clearing mechanisms. Furthermore, it is a full employment model. At its present state, the model is closed with fixed current account balance, fixed exchange rate (the numeriare), and endogenous PINDEX, which is the weighted value added price (or the GDP deflator). Also, savings go back into the system in the form of investments. The model is static and calibrated using the 1990 social accounting matrix and the 1990 sectoral tariff revenue. PCGEM is coded in a software called General Algebriac Modelling System (GAMS).
The paper reviews some of the economic models available in the Philippines used for ex-ante analy... more The paper reviews some of the economic models available in the Philippines used for ex-ante analysis on the poverty effects of adjustment policies. There are macroeconometric models, CGE-poverty microsimulation models, household models, partial/single equations models used by various analysts in private and public institutions and in the government planning agencies to conduct policy simulation exercises to analyze the distributional and poverty effects of adjustment policies. While the results guide the policy discussions on the poverty effects and provide policy framework for the medium-term development plan of the country, the ultimate impact on poverty would largely depend upon the specific government poverty programs, the targeting mechanisms, and the institutional arrangement that facilitate the implementation of such programs. The discussion in the paper indicates that there are large gaps in the poverty programs of the government and in the institutional arrangements. 9. Insights References Tables and Figures 1.
The PIDS Discussion Paper Series constitutes studies that are preliminary and subject to further ... more The PIDS Discussion Paper Series constitutes studies that are preliminary and subject to further revisions. They are being circulated in a limited number of copies only for purposes of soliciting comments and suggestions for further refinements. The studies under the Series are unedited and unreviewed. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. Not for quotation without permission from the author(s) and the Institute.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
This paper uses a CGE mircosimulation approach to analyze the effects of tariff reduction on pove... more This paper uses a CGE mircosimulation approach to analyze the effects of tariff reduction on poverty and income inequality. The approach relaxes the representative household assumption in the traditional CGE modeling by replacing household groups with individual households. As such the approach allows one to model the link between trade reforms and individual households and their feedback to the general equilibrium of the economy. The present paper incorporates the whole 24,797 households of the 1994 Family Income and Expenditure Survey and simulates the tariff reduction from 1994 to 2000. Tariff reduction leads to higher imports and exports. Although domestic production for the local market declines, the overall production improves. These are due to substitution and scale effects of tariff reduction. Resource reallocation and factor movements favor the nonfood manufacturing sector. Agriculture wages, as well the rate of return to capital in agriculture, decline as a result of the d...
Tariff reform, particularly tariff reduction, is one of the major economic reforms implemented in... more Tariff reform, particularly tariff reduction, is one of the major economic reforms implemented in the last one and half decades in the Philippines. The paper attempts to analyze the effects of the tariff reduction from 1994 to 2000 on household income and welfare using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the 1994 social accounting matrix (SAM). Insights that can be drawn from the tariff reduction experiments include: (a) significant drop in domestic prices; (b) improvement in export competitiveness through the effective depreciation in the real exchange rate; (c) reallocation of production and resources towards the non-food manufacturing sector, which is a dominant sector both in trade and production; (d) drop in agriculture wages and increase in production wages; and (f) factor substitution favoring skilled production workers. The effects on nominal income are biased against rural households. This is largely because of the decline in agriculture wages and the...
This paper examines the effects of the reduction in tariff rates in the Philippines from 1994 to ... more This paper examines the effects of the reduction in tariff rates in the Philippines from 1994 to 2000 on unemployment, distribution and poverty using a CGE-microsimulation approach wherein the representative household assumption in the traditional CGE modeling is replaced with individual households. The approach allows one to model the link between trade reforms and individual household responses, and their feedback to the general equilibrium of the economy. The present paper incorporates the entire 24,797 households of the 1994 Family Income and Expenditure Survey.
The paper analyzes the possible effects of tariff reduction in the 1990s on unemployment, househo... more The paper analyzes the possible effects of tariff reduction in the 1990s on unemployment, household income and household welfare using a computable general equilibrium model calibrated to the 1994 social accounting matrix. The series of simulation experiments indicate that tariff reduction is welfare improving. The transmission channel is not so much through the improvement in household income, but through the reduction in domestic and consumer prices. In terms of resource reallocation effects and factor movements, the nonfood manufacturing sector benefits the most. As a result, unemployment in production labor declines while its wages improve. However, agriculture sector contracts which results in higher unemployment in the sector and lower agriculture wages.
The members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed and implemented in 2010... more The members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed and implemented in 2010 the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) that aims at establishing the region as a single market by 2015. In the agreement, the original six ASEAN nations (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) placed zero-duty on 99 percent of all their products in an inclusion list. However, they also put up a list of sensitive/highly sensitive products in which certain tariffs can be maintained. In the case of the Philippines, tariffs on rice and sugar were initially maintained at 40 percent and 38 percent. But in the ATIGA, the Philippines has committed to reduce its rice tariffs to 35 percent and its tariffs on sugar to 5 percent in 2015. In particular, through the Executive Order (EO) 892 signed by the Philippine president in 2010, the Philippines committed to reduce tariffs on sugar imports from the area from 38
This paper reviews the general structure of the following general computable general equilibrium ... more This paper reviews the general structure of the following general computable general equilibrium (CGE): the APEX model, Habito’s second version of the PhilCGE model, Cororaton’s CGE model and Bautista’s first CGE model. These models are chosen as they represent the range of recently constructed CGE models of the Philippine economy. They also represent two schools of thought in CGE modeling:
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006
This paper analyzes the impact of trade reform on welfare and poverty in the Philippines in the 1... more This paper analyzes the impact of trade reform on welfare and poverty in the Philippines in the 1990s using a CGE model. The results indicate that while welfare rises and poverty falls for all household groups except the poorest (those with rural unskilled private employees as household head), urban households gain more than rural households. Policy experiments involving full tariff reduction and uniform five percent tariff rate indicate generally the same pattern of effects, except that the magnitude of change is relatively larger in the former while all household groups, including the poorest, experience a reduction in poverty in the latter. Since poverty remains high and the disparity between rural and urban poverty is still wide, other poverty-reducing measures have to be designed and implemented to target those households that do not benefit much from this type of market reform.
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Papers by Caesar Cororaton