Adri Wanto

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Papers by Adri Wanto

Policy Study on the Strategic Feasibility of Small Modular Reactors as a Clean Energy Alternative for Indonesia

ACRC Working Paper , 2026

Indonesia's energy demand will certainly increase due to economic growth, industrialization, urba... more Indonesia's energy demand will certainly increase due to economic growth, industrialization, urbanization, digitalization, electrification, and the creation of new industrial areas. In this regard, the energy transition should be viewed not just as a transition from fossil energy sources to highly variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Instead, it should be seen as an effort to construct a system of energy generation that is not just clean but also stable, safe, reliable, and affordable for long-term industrial growth. Among different technologies that have been getting more attention in energy policy discourse recently, there is one called the small modular reactor (SMR). Small modular reactor-based power generation implies the creation of small or medium-size nuclear reactors that can be constructed in modules. Compared with conventional nuclear power stations, small modular reactors are built at lower capacities, require fewer land areas, can be built in phases, and integrated into the regional energy grids or industrial areas' needs. This paper will analyze whether SMRs can be considered as an alternative to conventional power sources by Indonesian public policymakers. The paper is not intended to recommend nuclear energy as a primary energy source. Instead, it suggests a more balanced policy assessment framework for Indonesia in relation to SMRs. With a qualitative research design, policy study, and comparative analysis methodology, this paper explores the relevancy of SMRs as a technology for Indonesia through analyzing a few significant aspects. They include national energy demand, archipelagic character of Indonesia, electricity generation needs other than Java, fuel chain and fuel resources, nuclear waste management, regulatory frameworks, safety, nuclear security, financing issues, public acceptance, and Indonesia's geopolitical role. The thesis of the paper is that SMRs should be taken into consideration when building Indonesia's future energy balance, especially regarding stable low-carbon energy for industrial estates, regions outside Java, mineral downstreaming, data centers, and regional energy systems. An idea of constructing SMR-based power is feasible only if Indonesia strengthens its institutional capacity, develops a licensing agency, and engages in transparent communication with public.

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Prabowo’s Transactional Foreign Policy and the Future of Indonesia’s Bargaining Position: Between Strategic Sovereignty and the Risk of Policy Inconsistency

ACRC Working Paper, 2026

This article examines the potential implications of President Prabowo Subianto’s foreign policy f... more This article examines the potential implications of President Prabowo Subianto’s foreign policy for Indonesia’s bargaining power in an international environment marked by global fragmentation and the growing prevalence of transactional diplomacy. As the era of liberal globalization increasingly gives way to strategic rivalry, major powers have begun to integrate trade, investment, technology transfer, security cooperation, energy access, mineral resources, and diplomatic support into broader negotiating frameworks. For Indonesia, this changing landscape presents significant opportunities, given its large domestic market, abundant natural resources, strategic maritime location, and established identity as part of the Global South. At the same time, it also generates important risks, including strategic ambiguity, weak inter-agency coordination, investor uncertainty, and domestic as well as international criticism concerning sovereignty, the continuity of Indonesia’s free and active foreign policy tradition, and its diplomatic position on Palestine. The paper argues that President Prabowo Subianto’s foreign policy embodies two competing tendencies. It seeks to position Indonesia as a more assertive Global South power, yet simultaneous engagement across multiple diplomatic and economic arenas may generate policy inconsistency. BRICS membership may reinforce Indonesia’s Global South identity, while OECD accession requires alignment with advanced-economy standards. Cooperation with China supports investment, but South China Sea tensions demand firm sovereignty-based positions. Relations with the West remain vital for technology and markets, while the Gaza issue tests Indonesia’s diplomatic consistency. The paper concludes that transactional diplomacy can enhance Indonesia’s bargaining power only when embedded within a coherent national strategy. Indonesia’s independent and active foreign policy remains relevant, but it requires institutional discipline, inter-agency coordination, clear sovereignty red lines, and consistent diplomatic communication. Without these, flexibility may become ambiguity, pragmatism may appear opportunistic, and global ambition may produce policy inconsistency.

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Indonesia’s Nickel Downstreaming: Economic Sovereignty or New Geopolitical Dependence?

ACRC Working Paper, 2026

Indonesia has become one of the most important players in the geopolitics of critical minerals wo... more Indonesia has become one of the most important players in the geopolitics of critical minerals worldwide. Thanks to its large deposits of nickel, growing mineral processing capacity, and plans to emerge as a production hub for batteries powering electric vehicles, Indonesia has been at the forefront of the world’s energy transition. As a result of implementing its nickel ore export ban and intensifying mineral processing activities domestically, Indonesia has managed to change its role from being an exporter of unprocessed mineral resources to a major global center of nickel refining and intermediate production. However, such success brings about its own dilemma. While nickel downstreaming has helped Indonesia strengthen its bargaining power, boost value creation domestically, attract foreign investment, and advance the country’s historical dream of breaking away from the curse of raw material exports, the emerging industrial structure relies heavily on Chinese capital, technologies, equipment, engineering services, finance, and market presence. This dependency has acquired new geopolitical dimensions as advanced industrial countries, including the US and the EU, try to reduce China’s influence on their critical mineral supplies. By imposing additional restrictions on China through legislation, the US has made it harder for Indonesia to export processed nickel in electric vehicle supply chains because of Inflation Reduction Act and rules regulating the Foreign Entity of Concern. This paper addresses a question of whether Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming policy increases economic sovereignty or results in new geopolitical dependence. Using a political economy approach, it concludes that Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming policy has resulted in enhanced economic sovereignty on the levels of state strategy, resource governance, and industrial development, but has yet to create structural sovereignty. Failure to diversify investment, transfer technologies, develop domestic industries, upgrade environmental practices, and open new markets will lead to replacement of old with new forms of geopolitical dependence.

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U.S. Military Aircraft Access to Indonesian Airspace and the Future of Indonesia’s Free and Active Foreign Policy: Strategic Autonomy, Limited Alignment, and the Geopolitics of Overflight in the Indo-Pacific

ACRC Working Paper, 2026

The controversy surrounding Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin’s statement about a letter of in... more The controversy surrounding Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin’s statement about a letter of intent with the United States on possible access for U.S. military aircraft to Indonesian airspace raises important questions about the direction of Indonesia’s foreign and defense policy. Although the government has emphasized that the document is non-binding and that any future arrangement must respect Indonesian sovereignty and national law, the issue remains politically sensitive. Airspace access is not simply a technical matter. In the context of U.S.-China rivalry, it can be interpreted as a geopolitical signal by Washington, Beijing, ASEAN partners, domestic political actors, and the Indonesian public. This article examines whether Indonesia-U.S. defense cooperation, particularly the possible use of Indonesian airspace by U.S. military aircraft, remains consistent with Indonesia’s bebas aktif foreign policy or whether it reflects a gradual move toward limited alignment with the United States. It argues that cooperation with Washington does not automatically undermine Indonesia’s strategic autonomy. However, airspace access is different from ordinary defense exercises because it may offer operational mobility, intelligence value, logistical advantages, and symbolic association with U.S. regional strategy. If access is clearly defined, approved on a case-by-case basis, limited to non-combat or humanitarian purposes, and placed under civilian oversight, it can remain compatible with bebas aktif. However, if access becomes broad, routine, automatic, linked to South China Sea operations, or supportive of U.S. surveillance and contingency planning, Indonesia may gradually move toward limited alignment without formally declaring an alliance. The long-term risks include tensions with China, pressure on ASEAN centrality, domestic debate over foreign military presence, and a weakening of Indonesia’s credibility as a country committed to a free and active foreign policy.

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The Strait of Malacca, the Malacca Dilemma, and the Strategic Possibility of a Hormuz Crisis Spilling Over to Indonesia

ACRC Working Paper, 2026

This article discusses the strategic possibility of the pressure created by a crisis involving th... more This article discusses the strategic possibility of the pressure created by a crisis involving the Strait of Hormuz being transferred to the Strait of Malacca and the region of the Indonesian archipelago. It starts with the concept of China's "Malacca Dilemma" and analyzes how China's heavy reliance on the strategic location and geopolitical exposure of Malacca create conditions for its vulnerability in a crisis situation, particularly related to a conflict in the Persian Gulf region. The article does not discuss the existence of an official strategy of the United States aimed at blockading the Strait of Malacca in case of any crisis in Asia or the Middle East or in connection with the situation in Taiwan or the South China Sea. The article also does not assume that a complete blockade of the waterway would be legally, economically, and politically feasible. However, the article discusses the scenario in which a crisis in the Hormuz region might cause the United States and its allies to adopt measures of indirect maritime pressure against China and make Malacca a key strategic location for such pressure. The core elements of these actions are likely to involve measures in the form of maritime surveillance, sanctions, insurance and financing restrictions, port-state measures, and coalition-based monitoring and maritime cooperation. For Indonesia, the primary concern is not an actual blockade of the Strait of Malacca. Instead, Indonesia faces the prospect of gradually transforming its sea lanes, ports, tankers, and maritime digital infrastructure into grey zones of great-power competition.

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Post-MEF Defense Modernization in Indonesia: From Platform Acquisition to Capability Integration

ACRC Working Paper, 2026

Indonesia’s defense sector has entered a post-Minimum Essential Force (MEF) phase in which the ce... more Indonesia’s defense sector has entered a post-Minimum Essential Force (MEF) phase in which the central policy problem is no longer merely the acquisition of modern weapon platforms, but the conversion of acquisition into integrated, sustainable, and strategically relevant military capability. It argues that the formal conclusion of MEF in 2024 should not be interpreted as the completion of defense modernization. Instead, it should be treated as the beginning of a more difficult institutional phase: capability integration. The article develops three claims. First, platform-centered modernization can produce an illusion of progress when procurement is not linked to readiness, sustainment, doctrine, munitions, logistics, command-and-control architecture, and lifecycle affordability. Second, supplier diversification and domestic defense-industrial ambition are strategically necessary for Indonesia, but both require stronger integration standards and more realistic industrial prioritization. Third, post-MEF modernization should be understood as a state-capacity project that connects strategic assessment, force design, budget discipline, industrial development, civil-military governance, and defense diplomacy. Drawing on Indonesia’s MEF experience, recent inventory data, defense budget developments, legal frameworks, and broader academic literature on military effectiveness and defense planning, the article proposes a capability-governance cycle for the Ministry of Defense (Kemhan): threat assessment, mission definition, capability-gap analysis, procurement prioritization, lifecycle-cost assessment, industrial participation planning, readiness measurement, and periodic review.

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Cyber-Physical Systems Indonesia: Kerentanan Strategis dan Desain Instrumen Kebijakan Pertahanan

ACRC Working Paper, 2026

Ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap cyber-physical systems (CPS), sistem yang menghubungkan komputa... more Ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap cyber-physical systems (CPS), sistem yang menghubungkan komputasi, jaringan, sensor, dan aktuator untuk memonitor serta mengendalikan proses fisik, meningkat pesat seiring program digitalisasi infrastruktur dan layanan publik yang digalakan oleh pemerintahan Joko Widodo selama sepuluh tahun berkuasa. Konsekuensinya, keamanan CPS tidak lagi dapat dipahami sebagai sekadar isu teknis, melainkan sebagai isu strategi nasional dan kebijakan publik yang harus diurus oleh pemerintahan Prabowo saat ini. Ketahanan CPS dari berbagai serangan perlu dikaji dari perspektif public policy dengan fokus pada persoalan desain instrumen, koordinasi lintas-sektor, kapasitas implementasi, serta insentif kepatuhan. Dengan metode kajian kualitatif berbasis studi kasus komparatif dan analisis dokumen kebijakan, artikel ini mencoba mengekstraksi pelajaran dari insiden global pada infrastruktur kritis. Kajian ini mengambil contoh kasus penangkapan Presiden Venezuela, pemadaman listrik di Ukraina, dan kasus Oldsmar (Florida). Kasus-kasus tersebut kemudian ditautkan ke dalam konteks Indonesia melalui kasus gangguan Pusat Data Nasional/PDNS 2024 dan kerangka regulasi pelindungan Infrastruktur Informasi Vital (IIV) dan Infrastruktur Informasi Fisik Vital (IIFV). Hasil analisis menunjukkan tiga sumber utama kerentanan: (1) strategic underestimation atas peran serangan CPS; (2) kesenjangan desain kebijakan dari norma umum menuju baseline operational technology (OT) and protects industrial control systems (ICS) yang dapat diaudit; dan (3) kesenjangan implementasi berupa fragmentasi kewenangan, kapasitas SDM yang terbatas, serta lemahnya tata kelola pemulihan pasca serangan.

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Jurnal-al-jamiah adri wanto

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