Papers by Christian Martin
Number of Parties, Endogenous Partisan Preferences and Electoral Turnout Rates: A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis
Social Science Research Network, 2004
ABSTRACT
Social Science Research Network, 2006
Stammwähler und die opportunistische Wahl parteipolitischer Programme
Swiss Political Science Review, Jul 1, 2004
ZusammenfassungThis article explains political radicalism by the number of voters who are biased ... more ZusammenfassungThis article explains political radicalism by the number of voters who are biased towards a party. With little voters biased in favor of a party, this party has to rely more heavily on its programmatic distance to other parties. Because large parties – i.e.: parties with a high number of biased voters – gain votes when they move to the center of the political spectrum, parties with a lower number of voters that are biased in their favor are forced to the edges of the policy space. We draw on a computational model of political competition between four parties in a two‐dimensional policy space to investigate this relationship. We use panel corrected OLS estimates to analyze the data generated by the computer simulation. Our results substantiate the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the number of biased voters and the inclination of a party to adopt a more extreme policy stance.
Regimetyp und Wirtschaftswachstum; ein Kommentar (nicht nur) zu Herbert Obinger
Swiss Political Science Review, Sep 1, 2001
ABSTRACT
Multi-party competition: A computational model with abstention and memory
Electoral Studies, Sep 1, 2008
ABSTRACT
Kommunalpolitik in Schleswig-Holstein
Dieser Beitrag untersucht Aspekte kommunaler Politik in Schleswig-Holstein und stellt kommunale P... more Dieser Beitrag untersucht Aspekte kommunaler Politik in Schleswig-Holstein und stellt kommunale Politik im Kontext ihrer verfassungsrechtlichen Rahmung dar. Analytisch gehen wir der Frage nach, wie politisiert die Politik in den Kommunen des Landes ist und argumentieren, dass eine Ent-Politisierung des Kommunalen stattgefunden hat. Unsere Befunde auf der Grundlage von Wahl- und Strukturdaten fur den Zeitraum von 1962 bis 2018 weisen uniform in diese Richtung. Wir stellen damit fest, dass in Schleswig-Holstein nicht die Parteiideologie, sondern Funktionserfordernisse im Vordergrund der Kommunalpolitik stehen.
Kommunalpolitik in Schleswig-Holstein
Politik und Regieren in Schleswig-Holstein, 2019
Dieser Beitrag untersucht Aspekte kommunaler Politik in Schleswig-Holstein und stellt kommunale P... more Dieser Beitrag untersucht Aspekte kommunaler Politik in Schleswig-Holstein und stellt kommunale Politik im Kontext ihrer verfassungsrechtlichen Rahmung dar. Analytisch gehen wir der Frage nach, wie politisiert die Politik in den Kommunen des Landes ist und argumentieren, dass eine Ent-Politisierung des Kommunalen stattgefunden hat. Unsere Befunde auf der Grundlage von Wahl- und Strukturdaten fur den Zeitraum von 1962 bis 2018 weisen uniform in diese Richtung. Wir stellen damit fest, dass in Schleswig-Holstein nicht die Parteiideologie, sondern Funktionserfordernisse im Vordergrund der Kommunalpolitik stehen.
Number of Parties, Endogenous Partisan Preferences, and Electoral Turnout Rates
Social Science Computer Review, 2005
This article analyzes the impact of the number of parties on turnout rates within an endogenous p... more This article analyzes the impact of the number of parties on turnout rates within an endogenous partisan preference framework. Our results show that the turnout increases in the number of parties under various levels of individual propensity to abstain. We find strong interactions effects between both motives for abstention—alienation and indifference—and the abstention propensity. The results are based on an agent-based computer simulation of multiparty electoral competition in a two-dimensional policy space.
Multi-party competition: A computational model with abstention and memory
Electoral Studies, 2008
ABSTRACT
Government Spending and Taxation in Democracies and Autocracies
Constitutional Political Economy, 2004
The paper develops a theoretical rationale for a non-linear relationship between the level of dem... more The paper develops a theoretical rationale for a non-linear relationship between the level of democracy and government spending. A model is presented showing why and how political participation influences the spending behavior of opportunistic governments that can choose an optimal combination of rents and public goods to attract political support. If the level of democracy remains low, governments rationally prefer
Demokratie, Autokratie und die regulative Gestaltung der Außenwirtschaftsbeziehungen in Entwicklungsländern
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 2004
ABSTRACT
The analysis of multi-dimensional partisan competition in multi-party systems has been hampered b... more The analysis of multi-dimensional partisan competition in multi-party systems has been hampered by the notorious problem of disequilibria. This paper offers a solution for the ʹproblem" of disequilibria in spatial voting models which is based on 'condensed' Markov equilibria: By eliminating the time-dimension from a Markov chain of partisan platforms we are able to identify probability zones dubbed 'stochastic equilibria'. We then impose controlled parameter variations in computational models to allow for the use of statistical tools with which we derive hypotheses from a spatial model of multiparty competition. The usefulness of this method is illustrated by three examples dealing with the impact of voters' memory, abstention and the number of parties on endogenous partisan preferences.
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 2019
The 2017 federal elections in Germany propelled the far-right party "Alternative für Deutschland"... more The 2017 federal elections in Germany propelled the far-right party "Alternative für Deutschland" ("Alternative for Germany"-AfD) to become the third largest party in the federal parliament. I argue that this electoral success can be explained by the party's ability to mobilize a large part of the electorate that had abstained in previous elections. Theoretically, I argue that the AfD was able to asymmetrically mobilize voters because of its unique position in the German party system and because of a perceived centrist move of the CDU/CSU. Drawing on data from the Federal Returning Office, I show that the AfD was able to mobilize the electorate more successfully than other parties and that the party's electoral success was in large part due to this mobilization success with the change in turnout the second strongest predictor of AfD vote shares. Furthermore, employing individual level data, I show that a) a plurality of those voters who did not participate in the 2013 elections but participated in the 2017 elections voted for the AfD; and b) that the centrist move of the CDU is perceived much more pronouncedly among AfD voters than among non-AfD voters.
International Studies Quarterly, 2017
Most studies of policy interdependence try to observe international policy networks by focusing o... more Most studies of policy interdependence try to observe international policy networks by focusing on the diffusion of a specific policy across countries. Thus, if that policy is not adopted from one country to the next, researchers usually treat that as a sign of weak interdependence and the lack of diffusion. In this article, we challenge the notion that diffusion processes and interdependence entail the same policy diffusing. National governments usually engage in a bundle of diffusing policies at the same time. We argue that they are often pressed to implement the policy adopted in neighboring countries. But, at the same time, their incentive to implement this policy depends, at least in part, on how much they rely on foreign resources. The greater their dependence, the more likely they are to adopt the policy preferences of foreign constituents. Thus, conditional on a neighbor's pressure to adopt a policy, states may engage in policy alteration-the adoption of an alternative instrument to an internationally diffusing policy. We claim that such policy substitution is especially likely in countries that are less dependent on economic flows, as their governments enjoy more political leeway to turn policy diffusion processes to their advantage. We trace this mechanism using two studies of the diffusion of alternative environmental policies across space and time.
Transfer, Diffusion und Konvergenz von Politiken, 2007
Public Spending and Trade Liberalization: The Compensation Hypothesis Revisited
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013
ABSTRACT
Economic Integration, Party Polarisation and Electoral Turnout
West European Politics, 2012
Recent research provides evidence that economic integration has a negative effect on electoral tu... more Recent research provides evidence that economic integration has a negative effect on electoral turnout. Taking up these recent findings, this article explores the causal chain in more detail. Specifically, it argues that one way by which economic integration affects the calculus of voting is through the positioning of political parties. The expectation is that the polarisation between parties on an
Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 2009
Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Interdependenz der Besteuerung von Zigaretten durch die US... more Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Interdependenz der Besteuerung von Zigaretten durch die US-amerikanischen Bundesstaaten von 1971 bis 2006. Es wird argumentiert, dass der Diffusionseinfluss der Steuerpolitik anderer Staaten konditional in Abhängigkeit von der Regierungsideologie in jenem Staat wirkt, auf den der Einfluss trifft. Genauer wird gezeigt, dass lediglich Regierungen, die nicht dem rechten ideologischen Spektrum zuzurechnen sind, ein Umfeld hoher Zigarettensteuern als Gelegenheit zur Durchsetzung gesundheitspolitischer und fiskalischer Ziele benutzen. Umgekehrt kann sich eine stärker staatsinterventionistisch geprägte Regierungsideologie nur dann entfalten, wenn sie ein geeignetes Umfeld hoch besteuernder Nachbarstaaten vorfindet. Ich argumentiere, dass die konditionale Fassung des Diffusionseinflusses die Möglichkeit zu einer empirisch genaueren und theoretisch reicheren Modellierung eröffnet.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
World integration levels influence opportunity costs of maintaining restrictive national trade po... more World integration levels influence opportunity costs of maintaining restrictive national trade policies. In an integrated world, restrictive trade policies are more costly than in a context of low overall levels of world market integration. We argue that policy makers can be expected to react to these varying incentives to liberalize the trade regimes of their countries, yet do so not in a uniform fashion across countries. Rather, the responsiveness to changes in levels of world trade integration is conditional upon the electoral system the country in question employs. This is due to the fact that opportunity cost considerations increase in importance with a) the degree to which policy makers are isolated from the influence of protectionist interest groups; and b) the credibility with which losers of integration can be promised compensation. Both aspects weigh more strongly in countries that employ proportional representation as opposed to majority voting. We test this hypothesis using a model of conditional trade policy diffusion where world levels of integration are treated as diffusion influence that is interacted with a measure of the proportionality of a country's electoral system. Empirical results support the hypothesis. Moreover, it is shown that it is district magnitude as a measure of proportionality rather than the higher number of parties associated with more proportional voting rules that drives the results.
Economic Integration and Electoral Turnout–Searching for a Causal Link via Party Positions
ABSTRACT
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Papers by Christian Martin