Spreads in International Natural Gas Prices – Explanations and Analysis of Intertemporal Market Equilibrium under (Political) Uncertainty
Energy & the Economy,37th IAEE International Conference,June 15-18, 2014, Jun 15, 2014
• The recent dynamics of natural gas markets are characterized by large spreads in liquefied natu... more • The recent dynamics of natural gas markets are characterized by large spreads in liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices across locations in particular the low prices in the United States (Henry hub) compared with Europe or Japan. • Moreover these differences are forecasted to persist (at a lower level) against the law of one price. • This paper investigates how arbitrageurs will invest accounting for the rational expectation that this arbitrage will be eroded over time by competitive agents’ investments. • These investments face a second kind of risk because governments may intervene and destroy this opportunity in order to protect the interest of local (i.e. U.S.) firms and consumers. • The paper analyzes a corresponding stochastic and dynamic equilibrium that implies a persistence of price differences in spite of an apparent arbitrage opportunity. Wirl & Yegorov Spreads in Gas Price 2
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