Papers by Gunnar Lindberg
European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
The external cost of transport has been discussed in the European transport policy since the 60s.... more The external cost of transport has been discussed in the European transport policy since the 60s. However, it was not until the mid-90s that the European Commission decided on a pricing policy for the transport sector. This policy has stimulated a wide array of new research on the external cost of transport. A survey of some of the most recent studies in the area displays a clear picture; the latest studies are clearly focused on the marginal external cost and based on detailed bottom-up methods. The paper summarise the methods used to estimate some of the components of the marginal cost of transport - marginal infrastructure cost, congestion and scarcity cost, accident and environmental cost. The survey displays the huge variation in the estimates that follows from the use of more detailed databases. While this may be perceived as a problem for blunt pricing policies the paper suggests that it highlights the need for a more refined pricing policy in the transport sector.
Stated preference (SP) surveys attempt to obtain monetary values for non-market goods that reflec... more Stated preference (SP) surveys attempt to obtain monetary values for non-market goods that reflect individuals' "true" preferences. Numerous empirical studies suggest that monetary values from SP studies are sensitive to survey design and so may not reflect respondents' true preferences. This study examines the effect of time framing on respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for car safety. We explore how WTP per unit risk reduction depends on the time period over which respondents pay and face reduced risk in a theoretical model and by using data from a Swedish contingent valuation survey. We find that WTP is sensitive to time framing; the theoretical model predicts that the effect is likely to be nontrivial, and empirical estimates from an annual scenario are about 70 percent higher than estimates from a monthly scenario.
High speed trains in Sweden. Demand modelling tools. A review of transport- and cost-benefit analysis
TØI Report, Dec 1, 2016
Transportsektorn är ett av de områden där den offentliga sektorn till stora delar utformar infras... more Transportsektorn är ett av de områden där den offentliga sektorn till stora delar utformar infrastrukturen. Staten påverkar också genom olika styrmedel funktionen hos transportsystemet. För att beslutsfattare ska kunna ta ställning till om investeringar i olika typer av transportinfrastruktur bör genomföras eller inte, och hur systemet ska utformas, krävs ett tillfredsställande beslutsunderlag. Genom att så långt som möjligt genomföra åtgärder som är samhällsekonomiskt effektiva, där nyttorna för samhället överstiger kostnaderna, desto mer troligt är det att beslut fattas som i det långa loppet gynnar hela samhällets välfärd. En metodik som utvecklats för att ta fram denna typ av beslutsunderlag är samhällsekonomisk analys där nyttor och kostnader på ett systematiskt sätt jämförs.
Road Pricing: Policy and Options for the Future
Transportation research, economics and policy, 1995
Simple road pricing mechanisms have been used for centuries; the ferryman was paid for taking tra... more Simple road pricing mechanisms have been used for centuries; the ferryman was paid for taking travellers and their horses over the river and the country boy was paid a small fee for opening the gate. In many countries turnpikes and toll bars remain as means of forcing road users to contribute to the costs of roads according to their level of use. Even the most common system with a yearly vehicle tax and a fuel excise duty can be seen as a kind of road pricing. The discussion about road pricing in all its forms is not new but it is experiencing a renaissance now that the welfare state is having problems financing new infrastructure and increasing congestion and environmental damage are on the political agenda.
The marginal cost of road/rail level crossing accidents on Swedish railways
This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In t... more This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In the first essay a theory of the external marginal cost of accidents is presented. The external cost is dependent on the value of statistical life, the proportion internal cost and the so called risk elasticity, i.e. the relationship between traffic flow and accident risk. The two following essays present CV-studies on value of statistical life. Both CV-studies are based on the community approach built on the Swedish Vision Zero and ask respondents about their willingness-to-pay for absolute safety from fatal and severe accidents in one city. The first study focuses on the problem of scope and hypothetical bias and shows that ex post calibration based on respondents’ certainty in answering the WTP question reduces the willingness-to-pay with up to 30% for a public good. Based on these certain responses a lower bound VSL value is presented of SEK 53 million for a private good and 20 million for a public good. The second essay discusses the topic of nonselfish preferences and willingness-to-pay for children’s safety as well as for relatives and friends. The essay suggests that WTP for children safety is higher than private safety and that a WTP for the safety of relatives and friends is prevailing. Also this essay shows a big difference between the WTP for a private good and for a public good. The two following essays estimate the risk elasticity for railway level crossing accidents as well as for heavy goods vehicles in Sweden. Both essays find that the risk decreases with increased traffic i.e. negative risk elasticity. The last essay presents the result from a field experiment with speed related charges and bonuses. The experiment shows that internalisation of the external accident cost through speed related economic incentives strongly will affect drivers choice of speed. It is proposed that this can be achieved on a voluntary basis.
Chapter 11. Road Pricing: Policy and Options for the Future
Transportstyrelsens arbete med konsekvensutredningar metodik för samhällsekonomisk analys med beräkningshandledning i bilaga
VTI Rapport, 2013
Transport is an area where the public sector plays an important role for the design and the funct... more Transport is an area where the public sector plays an important role for the design and the functioning of the system. In Sweden the overriding goal for transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and businesses throughout the country. When making changes to the system there is a need for information on the advantages and disadvantages of different policy options so that the decisions are based on balanced evidence. To meet these ends, the methodology of cost-benefit analysis is applied as a decision support tool, especially regarding decision related to infrastructure investment. The Swedish Transport Administration and the Swedish Transport Agency have the main responsibility for the design and functioning of the transport system in Sweden. The former is responsible for the infrastructure while the latter is more concerned with the management of traffic and the design of rules and regulations. The Swedish Transport Agency also exercises supervision. In 2012 the Swedish Transport Agency commissioned VTI to develop a first version of a calculation handbook to be used in the impact assessments performed by the Agency, together with a plan for education on how to perform this type of assessment. Our proposition is presented in this report. Based on a number of case studies of impact assessment recently performed at the Agency we have assessed what kind of information that needs to be included in their impact assessments. We have also investigated which methods are used internationally, and by the Swedish Transport Administration, to perform this type of analysis. Using this information we present a draft for a calculation handbook based on the experience and material used at the Swedish Transport Administration. We also present an education plan. However, since there is a difference between issues related to investments in infrastructure and management issues, we also suggest a plan for development of the calculation handbook and its use within the Agency.
Valuation and pricing of traffic safety
This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In t... more This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In the first essay a theory of the external marginal cost of accidents is presented. The external cost i ...
The Marginal Cost of Road- and Rail-Infrastructure Use in Europe – Latest Estimates and European Legislation
This paper summarizes the result from studies on the external marginal cost for road and rail tra... more This paper summarizes the result from studies on the external marginal cost for road and rail transport made in the European GRACE project. The project includes studies on the marginal infrastructure cost, cost of congestion and scarcity, accident, air pollution, greenhouse gases and marginal noise cost. This paper focuses on the estimates of the marginal infrastructure cost and is based on 8 original studies made across Europe. The paper reveals a structure on the cost elasticity that depends on cost category and mode of transport. The paper presents result on the marginal renewal cost from both econometric studies and studies based on a lifetime approach. The elasticity is highest for renewal measures on road infrastructure and lowest for operation of road infrastructure with a number of elasticity’s in the rail sector in between. The result suggests that the marginal infrastructure cost at average is below the average cost for both rail and road infrastructure.
The role of economic analysis for investment priorities in Sweden’s transport sector
Beginning as a planning tool within the national road administration in the early 1970s, benefit-... more Beginning as a planning tool within the national road administration in the early 1970s, benefit-cost analysis (BCA) became a pillar of national transport policy because of strategic choices made by the national parliament. The Transport Policy Act of 1979 established marginal instead of average cost as the overarching principle for pricing of transport. The subsequent 1988 Act separated rail infrastructure from train-service provision. Both policy updates made it necessary to widen the analysis of costs to include also externalities and a foregone conclusion was that efficient investment priorities should be made based on BCA. But no one asked whether the political decision makers or the BCA models were apt to that task. This paper reviews the current state of BCA for transport infrastructure investment and considers design issues that have been and still are debated, also providing a benchmark description of how these issues have been addressed elsewhere. Moreover, the role of BCA...
Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2018
Beginning as a planning tool within Sweden’s national road administration some 50 years ago, bene... more Beginning as a planning tool within Sweden’s national road administration some 50 years ago, benefit-cost analysis (BCA) has come to be a pillar of the national transport policy because of subsequent strategic choices made by the national parliament. These choices made it necessary to widen the analysis of costs to include also externalities and a foregone conclusion was that efficient investment priorities should be made based on BCA. But no one asked whether the political decision makers or the BCA models were up to that task. This paper reviews the institutional framework and practice of BCA in Sweden for transport infrastructure investment, and considers design issues that have been and still are debated, such as whether the discount rate should include a risk term and how to account for the marginal cost of public funds. A main concern with BCA results is the underestimation of construction costs, making transport sector projects look better than they are. Several ex post analy...
Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2019
Stated preference (SP) methods are often used to elicit an affected population's preferences for,... more Stated preference (SP) methods are often used to elicit an affected population's preferences for, e.g., increased safety or better environmental quality. SP methods are based on hypothetical market scenarios which have advantages, since decision alternatives are known to the analysis, but also necessitate thorough validity tests of the results, since decisions are hypothetical. This study suggests a validity test based on theoretical predictions and empirical findings for private and public safety measures. According to the test, willingness to pay (WTP) for a public safety measure should exceed or be equal to the private one. Based on a rich data set eliciting both private and public WTP the results show that private WTP exceeds public WTP. Hence, the findings in this study highlight the importance of validity tests of preference estimates for safety, and suggest that WTP also for a private safety measure should be elicited in studies eliciting WTP for public safety measures, to allow for the validity test.
The marginal cost of road/rail level crossing accidents on Swedish railways
This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In t... more This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In the first essay a theory of the external marginal cost of accidents is presented. The external cost is dependent on the value of statistical life, the proportion internal cost and the so called risk elasticity, i.e. the relationship between traffic flow and accident risk. The two following essays present CV-studies on value of statistical life. Both CV-studies are based on the community approach built on the Swedish Vision Zero and ask respondents about their willingness-to-pay for absolute safety from fatal and severe accidents in one city. The first study focuses on the problem of scope and hypothetical bias and shows that ex post calibration based on respondents’ certainty in answering the WTP question reduces the willingness-to-pay with up to 30% for a public good. Based on these certain responses a lower bound VSL value is presented of SEK 53 million for a private good and 20 million for a public good. The second essay discusses the topic of nonselfish preferences and willingness-to-pay for children’s safety as well as for relatives and friends. The essay suggests that WTP for children safety is higher than private safety and that a WTP for the safety of relatives and friends is prevailing. Also this essay shows a big difference between the WTP for a private good and for a public good. The two following essays estimate the risk elasticity for railway level crossing accidents as well as for heavy goods vehicles in Sweden. Both essays find that the risk decreases with increased traffic i.e. negative risk elasticity. The last essay presents the result from a field experiment with speed related charges and bonuses. The experiment shows that internalisation of the external accident cost through speed related economic incentives strongly will affect drivers choice of speed. It is proposed that this can be achieved on a voluntary basis.
Valuation and pricing of traffic safety
This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In t... more This thesis consists of six essays covering the topic of valuation and pricing of accidents. In the first essay a theory of the external marginal cost of accidents is presented. The external cost i ...
Transportstyrelsens arbete med konsekvensutredningar :metodik för samhällsekonomisk analys med beräkningshandledning i bilaga
Transport is an area where the public sector plays an important role for the design and the funct... more Transport is an area where the public sector plays an important role for the design and the functioning of the system. In Sweden the overriding goal for transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and businesses throughout the country. When making changes to the system there is a need for information on the advantages and disadvantages of different policy options so that the decisions are based on balanced evidence. To meet these ends, the methodology of cost-benefit analysis is applied as a decision support tool, especially regarding decision related to infrastructure investment. The Swedish Transport Administration and the Swedish Transport Agency have the main responsibility for the design and functioning of the transport system in Sweden. The former is responsible for the infrastructure while the latter is more concerned with the management of traffic and the design of rules and regulations. The Swedish Transport Agency also exercises supervision. In 2012 the Swedish Transport Agency commissioned VTI to develop a first version of a calculation handbook to be used in the impact assessments performed by the Agency, together with a plan for education on how to perform this type of assessment. Our proposition is presented in this report. Based on a number of case studies of impact assessment recently performed at the Agency we have assessed what kind of information that needs to be included in their impact assessments. We have also investigated which methods are used internationally, and by the Swedish Transport Administration, to perform this type of analysis. Using this information we present a draft for a calculation handbook based on the experience and material used at the Swedish Transport Administration. We also present an education plan. However, since there is a difference between issues related to investments in infrastructure and management issues, we also suggest a plan for development of the calculation handbook and its use within the Agency.
We report a vehicle-fleet experiment with an economic incentive given to car drivers for keeping ... more We report a vehicle-fleet experiment with an economic incentive given to car drivers for keeping within speed limits. A pay-as-you-speed traffic insurance scheme was simulated with a monthly participation bonus that was reduced by a non-linear speeding penalty. Actual speed was monitored by a GPS in-vehicle device. Participating drivers were randomly assigned into two-by two treatment groups, with different participation-bonus and penalty levels, and two control groups (high and low participation bonus, but no penalty). A third control group consists of drivers with the same technical equipment who did not participate but whose driving could be monitored. We evaluate changes in behaviour from twelve-month differences in proportion of driving time per month that the car was exceeding the maximum allowed speed on the road. We find that the participating drivers significantly reduced severe speeding violations during the first experiment month, while in the second experiment month, aft...
Road Pricing: Policy and Options for the Future
Transportation Research, Economics and Policy, 1995
Simple road pricing mechanisms have been used for centuries; the ferryman was paid for taking tra... more Simple road pricing mechanisms have been used for centuries; the ferryman was paid for taking travellers and their horses over the river and the country boy was paid a small fee for opening the gate. In many countries turnpikes and toll bars remain as means of forcing road users to contribute to the costs of roads according to their level of use. Even the most common system with a yearly vehicle tax and a fuel excise duty can be seen as a kind of road pricing. The discussion about road pricing in all its forms is not new but it is experiencing a renaissance now that the welfare state is having problems financing new infrastructure and increasing congestion and environmental damage are on the political agenda.
Stated preference (SP) surveys attempt to obtain monetary values for non-market goods that reflec... 
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Papers by Gunnar Lindberg