Papers by Elisabeth A Lloyd
Climatic Change, Aug 1, 2021
In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenbe... more In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and will affect extreme events in their regions to such an extent that the plaintiffs already had been or will be harmed. The storyline approach to attribution is deterministic rather than probabilistic, taking certain factors as contingent and assessing the role of climate change conditional on those factors. The US Government's opposing expert witness argued that Trenberth had failed to make his case because "all his conclusions of the injuries to Plaintiffs suffer from the same failure to connect his conditional approach to Plaintiffs' local circumstances." The issue is whether it is possible to make statements about individual events based on general knowledge. A similar question is sometimes debated within the climate science community. We argue here that proceeding from the general to the specific is a process of deduction and is an entirely legitimate form of scientific reasoning. We further argue that it is well aligned with the concept of legal evidence, much more so than the more usual inductive form of scientific reasoning, which proceeds from the specific to the general. This has implications for how attribution science can be used to support climate change litigation. "The question is", said Alice, "whether you can make words mean different things." "The question is", said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be masterthat's all." (Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland).
Climatic Change, Nov 1, 2021
Within the climate science community, useable climate science has been understood as quantitative... more Within the climate science community, useable climate science has been understood as quantitative, usually as a best estimate together with a quantified uncertainty. Physical scientists are trained to produce numbers and to draw general, abstract conclusions. In general, however, people relate much better to stories and to events they have experienced, which are inevitably contingent and particular. Sheila Jasanoff has argued elsewhere that the process of abstraction in climate science "detaches knowledge from meaning". Perhaps useable climate science is, then, meaningful climate science. We argue here that the development of meaningful climate science can be achieved by adopting a storyline approach to climate variability and change. By 'storyline' we mean a physically selfconsistent unfolding of past events or of plausible future events or pathways. Storylines represent a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, where the qualitative element represents a packaging or contextualization of the quantitative aspects, which ensures that data can be meaningfully interpreted. Viewed from this perspective, we show that physical climate storylines can be aligned with several well-established vehicles for translation of knowledge between diverse communities: narratives, boundary objects, and data journeys. They can therefore be used as a 'pidgin language' to enrich the set of tools available to climate scientists to bring meaning to climate knowledge. "And what is the use of a book", thought Alice, "without pictures or conversations?" (Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland). This article is part of the topical collection "Critical and historical perspectives on usable climate science", edited by Deborah R. Coen and Adam H. Sobel
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Feb 11, 2020
In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extrem... more In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine-grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine-grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic "risk-based" approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail.
Cambridge University Press eBooks, Mar 31, 2008
In this paper I distinguish various ways in which empirical claims about evolutionary and ecologi... more In this paper I distinguish various ways in which empirical claims about evolutionary and ecological models can be supported by data. I describe three basic factors bearing on confirmation of empirical claims: fit of the model to data; independent testing of various aspects of the model, and variety of evident. A brief description of the kinds of confirmation is followed by examples of each kind, drawn from a range of evolutionary and ecological theories. I conclude that the greater complexity and precision of my approach, as compared to, for instance, a Popperian approach, can facilitate detailed analysis and comparison of empirical claims.
Twin Research and Human Genetics, Aug 1, 2006
Synthese, Sep 19, 2016
Science strives for coherence. For example, the findings from climate science form a highly coher... more Science strives for coherence. For example, the findings from climate science form a highly coherent body of knowledge that is supported by many independent lines of evidence: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human economic activities are causing the global climate to warm and unless GHG emissions are drastically reduced in the near future, the risks from climate change will continue to grow and major adverse consequences will become unavoidable. People who oppose this scientific body of knowledge because the implications of cutting GHG emissions-such as regulation or increased taxation-threaten their worldview or livelihood cannot provide an alternative view that is coherent by the standards of conventional scientific thinking. Instead, we suggest that people who reject the fact that the Earth's climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emissions (or any other body of well-established scientific knowledge) oppose whatever inconvenient finding they are confronting in piecemeal fashion, rather than systematically, and without considering the implications of this rejection to the rest of the relevant scientific theory and findings. Hence, claims that the globe "is cooling" can coexist with claims that the "observed warming is natural" and that "the human influence does not matter because warming is good for us." Coherence between these mutually contradictory opinions can only be achieved at a highly abstract level, namely that "something must be wrong" with the scientific evidence in order to justify a political position against climate change mitigation.
Cambridge University Press eBooks, Mar 31, 2008
When natural selection theory was presented, much active philosophical debate, in which Darwin hi... more When natural selection theory was presented, much active philosophical debate, in which Darwin himself participated, centered on its hypothetical nature, its explanatory power, and Darwin's methodology. Upon first examination, Darwin's support of his theory seems to consist of a set of claims pertaining to various aspects of explanatory success. I analyze the support of his method and theory given in the Origin of Species and private correspondence, and conclude that an interpretation focusing on the explanatory strengths of natural selection theory accurately reflects neither Darwin's own self-consciously held views, nor the nature of his support. Darwin's methodological and philosophical arguments were at once consistently empiricist and more sophisticated than such interpretations credit to him. 1. Darwin's Views. William Whewell and Sir John F. W. Herschel, the most influential writers in philosophy of science in the mid-nineteenth century, both held Newtonian physics aloft as the model form for a scientific theory. In order to demonstrate Darwin's sophistication concerning contemporary philosophical and methodological issues, I shall quote him extensively, in this section, from his private correspondence. One crucial aspect of the laws of motion insisted on by philosophers and scientists alike was that they could be directly tested or proved. Darwin was well aware of the example provided by Newtonian physics, and was equally well aware that the theory of natural selection could not be tested by direct inference from the evidence. When we descend to details, we can prove that no one species has changed [i.e. we cannot prove that a single species has changed]; nor can we prove that the supposed changes are beneficial, which is the groundwork of the theory. Nor can we explain why some species have changed and others have not (Darwin 1919, 2:210). He is one of the very few who see that the change of species cannot *
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Biology and Philosophy, Jun 1, 2002
Response to Sloep and Van der Steen
Biology and Philosophy, 1987
The Structure and Confirmation of Evolutionary Theory
... Dick Jeffrey's intellectual compan-ionship and interest in the philosoph... more ... Dick Jeffrey's intellectual compan-ionship and interest in the philosophy of biology was a source of encourage-ment to me early in ... Even terrestrial populations do not segregate quite in accordance with [Mendelian segregation], for a multitude of reasons, of which the chief is ...
Biology and Philosophy, Jun 1, 2000
David Hull's analysis of conceptual change in science, as presented in his book, Science as a Pro... more David Hull's analysis of conceptual change in science, as presented in his book, Science as a Process (1988), provides a useful framework for understanding one of the scientific controversies in which he actively and constructively intervened, the units of selection debates in evolutionary biology. What follows is a brief overview of those debates and some reflections on them.
Archives of Sexual Behavior, 2017
Most women report reliably experiencing orgasm from masturbation, but a smaller proportion of wom... more Most women report reliably experiencing orgasm from masturbation, but a smaller proportion of women report regularly experiencing orgasm from intercourse. Research suggests that concurrent clitoral stimulation during intercourse increases the likelihood of orgasm, yet most surveys of orgasm during intercourse leave unspecified whether vaginal intercourse does or does not include concurrent clitoral stimulation (assisted intercourse or unassisted intercourse, respectively). Using an online sample of 1569 men and 1478 women, we tested whether phrasing of questions about the occurrence of orgasm in intercourse modulates women's reported frequency and men's estimates of women's frequency of orgasm in intercourse. Participants provided estimatesof orgasm when asked explicitly about intercourse with stimulation unspecified, assisted intercourse, and unassisted intercourse. Women's reports of orgasm occurrence were highest in response to assisted intercourse (51-60%), second highest in response to intercourse with clitoral stimulation unspecified (31-40%), and lowest in response to unassisted intercourse (21-30%). Men's estimates of women's orgasms were highest in response to assisted intercourse (61-70%), and lowest in response to unassisted intercourse (41-50%); in both conditions, men's estimates were significantly higher than women's reports. When clitoral stimulation was unspecified, women interpreted''orgasm in intercourse''in three ways: as from intercourse alone, as including concurrent clitoral stimulation though it was unspecified, or as an average of assisted and unassisted intercourse. Taken together, these results demonstrate that the phrasing of questions about women's orgasm produces markedly different orgasm estimates, and suggest that concurrent clitoral stimulation increases the likelihood of women experiencing orgasm in intercourse. Keywords Female orgasm Á Intercourse Á Clitoral stimulation Á Masturbation Á Sex difference The name of coauthor Kaytlin J. Renfro has been corrected since this article was originally published.
Springer eBooks, 2018
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The Evolution of Female Orgasm: New Evidence and Response to Feminist Critiques
Pickering & Chatto, Dec 1, 2014
Species: Historical Perspectives
Keywords in Evolutionary Biology, 1992
Models
<jats:p>Of the many kinds of things that serve as 'models', all function fundamenta... more <jats:p>Of the many kinds of things that serve as 'models', all function fundamentally as representations of what we wish to understand or to be or to do. Model aeroplanes and other scale models share selected structural properties with their originals, while differing in other properties, such as construction materials and size. Analogue models, which resemble their originals in some aspect of structure or internal relations, are important in the sciences, because they can facilitate inferences about complicated or obscure natural systems. A collection of billiard balls in random motion is an analogue model of an ideal gas; the interactions and motions of the billiard balls are taken to represent – to be analogous to – the interactions and motions of molecules in the gas.</jats:p> <jats:p>In mathematical logic, a model is a structure – an arrangement of objects – which represents a theory expressed as a set of sentences. The various terms of the sentences of the theory are mapped onto objects and their relations in the structure; a model is a structure that makes all of the sentences in the theory true. This specialized notion of model has been adopted by philosophers of science; on a 'structuralist' or 'semantic' conception, scientific theories are understood as structures which are used to represent real systems in nature. Philosophical debates have arisen regarding the precise extent of the resemblances between scientific models and the natural systems they represent.</jats:p>
Uploads
Papers by Elisabeth A Lloyd