Rotterdam Commodity Trading BV

🌍 El Niño risk is rising again, and should we be worried about “Super El Niño”? Official agencies now broadly expect El Niño to develop in 2026. NOAA’s latest outlook places the chance of El Niño at 82% for May–July 2026 and 96% for December 2026–February 2027. But the strength of the event remains uncertain. For the cashew market, that distinction matters. The key risk is not a guaranteed global supply shock, but a tighter margin for error across several important origins at the same time. Vietnam and Cambodia face the clearest dryness and heat risk. India’s monsoon will be an important signal for domestic supply and import demand. West Africa remains more nuanced: drier conditions can hurt flowering, but may also support drying and quality during harvest. Tanzania, Mozambique and Brazil add further late-season variables. In other words, El Niño could make the cashew market more weather-sensitive, especially around raw cashew nut availability, processing margins, moisture, outturn and shipment timing. The right response is not panic buying. It is closer monitoring, more conservative quality assumptions and better origin diversification. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/e6fuVGpg #Cashews #ElNino #CommodityTrading #Agriculture #RawCashewNuts #Vietnam #WestAfrica #India #ClimateRisk

📊 Vietnam’s cashew sector pushed further ahead in April — but the margin story remains complicated. The latest VINACAS figures show Vietnam exported 77,136 tons of cashew kernels in April, the strongest monthly volume of 2026 so far. But while export volumes accelerated, WW320 FOB Vietnam softened again to USD 3.42/lb, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Key signals from April: 🇻🇳 Kernel exports: 77,136 tons, up 3.2% YoY 🇨🇳 China returns: China became the largest April destination with 19,540 tons 🇰🇭 Cambodia dominates RCN imports: 469,733 tons, equal to 86.4% of Vietnam’s April raw nut imports 💰 Cost pressure remains: Cambodian RCN averaged USD 1,738/ton, far above Ivory Coast at USD 1,262/ton 📉 Pricing pressure: WW320 FOB Vietnam declined from USD 3.67/lb in January to USD 3.42/lb in April The key takeaway: Vietnam has supply, export momentum and demand across multiple destinations. What it still needs is a stronger margin signal. For now, the sector is winning on volume. Whether it can win on profitability will be the key question for Q2. 📖 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ezYrgzJm #Cashew #CashewMarket #Vietnam #Cambodia #CommodityTrading #MarketInsights #RCN #RotterdamCommodityTrading

📊 Vietnam Cashew Update: March 2026 is now live! Vietnam’s cashew sector reaccelerated sharply in March. Kernel exports rebounded to 57,581 tons (+0.8% YoY), while raw cashew nut imports surged to 475,684 tons (+44.6% YoY). Cambodia alone supplied 304,436 tons, equal to 64.0% of March’s total RCN import volume. 🌍 This month’s key signals: - WW320 FOB softened again to USD 3.47/lb in March, down from USD 3.67/lb in January. - The U.S. remained Vietnam’s strongest export market, taking 12,261 tons in March and 26,745 tons in Q1. - China recovered from February’s Lunar New Year slowdown, but Q1 volumes still trailed last year. - Cambodia has moved from near-absence in January to outright dominance in March, reshaping Vietnam’s sourcing mix and lifting average import costs. For Q2, the market will be watching three things closely: whether Cambodia can sustain this pace, whether U.S. demand stays firm, and whether kernel FOB prices can stabilise after three straight monthly declines. 📖 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eyvp7nXC #Cashew #Vietnam #CashewMarket #RCN #KernelMarket #AgriTrade #CommodityMarkets #RotterdamCommodityTrading

📊 Vietnam Cashew Market: February After January’s surge, February shows a clear market reset, not a slowdown. 🌍 Key highlights: • Kernel exports: 25,909 tons (–8.7% YoY), still +21% YTD • RCN imports: 170,434 tons (+16%) at lower prices ($1,570/ton) • Cambodia returns: 56,240 tons (33% share) after near-zero in January 👉 Demand normalized: 🇺🇸 U.S. strong (+30% YTD) 🇨🇳 China drops sharply post-Lunar New Year 👉 What matters now: • Q2 will be supply-driven (Cambodia + West Africa) • Prices depend on weather vs. supply 🌧 Vietnam rains + Ivory Coast humidity are already creating risk → RCN prices ~$2,090–2,100/PMT 🛰 The setup is simple: • Strong harvest → prices down • Weather issues → prices up 📖 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ejmzymgh #Cashew #CashewMarket #MarketInsights #RotterdamCommodityTrading

⚠️ Weather Risks Emerging Across the Global Cashew Belt Unseasonal weather in Vietnam and Ivory Coast is starting to raise concerns for the 2026 cashew crop, with potential impacts on both yield and quality. 🌍 Early market signals: 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Heavy rains during flowering are increasing disease pressure and causing flower drop, limiting fruit set. 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: Unusual humidity during harvest is slowing drying, raising risks of mold and lower kernel quality. 🇰🇭 Cambodia: As a key supplier of RCN to Vietnamese processors, any regional crop stress could tighten supply further. 💰 Market reaction already visible: RCN prices in the Vietnam–Cambodia corridor are around VND 55,000/kg (~$2,100 PMT), reflecting growing concerns about crop size. 📉 If weather disruptions persist, global kernel availability could tighten later in 2026. 📖 Full analysis: https://lnkd.in/eb3dGwDC #Cashew #CashewMarket #MarketInsights #CommodityTrading #RotterdamCommodityTrading

🇻🇳 Vietnam just shipped +42% more kernels, without earning more per ton. Jan 2026: • Kernel exports 56,375 MT (+42.2% YoY) • Avg export price USD 6,850/MT (flat YoY) • RCN imports 163,966 MT (+36.1%) at USD 1,541/MT (–11.7%) So the question isn’t “how strong is demand?” It’s where the margin comes from when prices don’t move. 👉 Full breakdown + destination & origin split: https://lnkd.in/d56ZJ-xk #Cashew #Vietnam #CommodityMarkets #RCN #AgriTrade

⚖️ U.S. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Emergency Tariffs A 6–3 ruling has declared the IEEPA-based “emergency” tariffs illegal. But the real story for nut traders? The immediate policy pivot. - Cashews: Explicitly exempt under the new Section 122 surcharge. - Hazelnuts: Now facing up to 15% surcharge (~$1.35/kg impact). - Almonds & Pistachios: Specialty import channels see direct cost pressure. Meanwhile, over $130 billion in previously collected tariffs remains unresolved. Volume flows may not change overnight. Cost structures just did. What does this mean for U.S. cashew importers and global suppliers? 👉 Read the full breakdown here: https://lnkd.in/eafWeVZ6 #Cashew #NutTrade #CommodityMarkets #Tariffs #RCN #GlobalTrade #MarketInsights

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast: From Drought Risk to Humidity Pressure Two weeks ago, dryness during flowering raised concerns for the 2025/26 cashew crop. Now the risk has shifted. Unusual rainfall during the dry season is increasing humidity levels in key growing regions, right as nuts are maturing and early harvest begins. What this could mean: - Higher mold exposure - Delays in early shipments - Lower share of premium RCN lots Volume may remain stable. Quality is the real question. 👉 Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/emmXdaKv #Cashew #RCN #CashewMarket #IvoryCoast #MarketInsights #RotterdamCommodityTrading

🌍 Cashew harvests are approaching and early weather signals are diverging by origin. As the 2026 season nears, Ivory Coast is emerging as a watch point, following weaker-than-expected pre-harvest conditions during a critical flowering and nut-setting window. Other major origins across Asia and West Africa currently show more stable signals, but uncertainty is rising as the season opens. 📊 We’ve published a short News update outlining what’s known so far and what the market should be watching next. 👉 Read the full update here: https://lnkd.in/esTTiwhf #Cashew #AgriMarkets #CommodityTrading #CropRisk #WestAfrica #MarketSignals

🇹🇿 Tanzania’s cashew numbers look strong. - Production is rising. - Export earnings are up. - Farm-gate prices have improved since the introduction of auctions. On paper, this should be a clean growth story. But here’s the uncomfortable question: If volumes keep increasing, where does the pressure actually go? - Into prices? - Into processing margins? - Into quality dispersion? - Or into the auction system itself? Our latest long-form analysis looks at why Tanzania’s cashew boom is real, and why managing it may be harder than growing it. 👉 Read the full analysis on our website: https://lnkd.in/eFCdHuCj #CashewMarket #Tanzania #RCN #AgriCommodities #MarketInsights #RotterdamCommodityTrading