Previsioni e quote delle elezioni di metà mandato 2026

Quote elezioni di metà mandato 2026 — Quote live del mercato predittivo
Mercato	Favorito e candidati	Quote live del mercato
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	95%
	Steve Hilton	4%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Troy Jackson (D)	69%
	Susan Collins (R)	33%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Bernadette Wilson	27%
	Tom Begich	26%
	Treg Taylor	16%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	13%
	Click Bishop	9%
	David Bronson	7%
	Bill Walker	4%
	Shelley Hughes	2%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Mary Peltola	1%
	Matt Claman	1%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Ken Paxton (R)	52%
	James Talarico (D)	50%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	53%
	Dan Sullivan	49%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Abdul El-Sayed (D)	62%
	Mike Rogers (R)	39%
Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrat	84%
	Republican	16%
	Independent	2%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Ashley Hinson (R)	57%
	Josh Turek (D)	45%
TN-05 Republican Primary Winner	Charlie Hatcher	100%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Republican	60%
	Democrat	41%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Republican	91%
	Democrat	10%
TN-06 Republican Primary Winner	Johnny Garrett	100%
MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Matt Little	73%
	Matt Klein	14%
	Kaela Berg	9%
Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrat	84%
	Republican	17%
MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Dan Koh	69%
	Tram Nguyen	26%
	John Beccia	1%
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner	Lois Frankel	95%
	Victoria Doyle	5%
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner	James Martin	61%
	Bernard Taylor	42%
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner	Jim Schwartzel	50%
	Catalina Lauf	16%
	Jim Oberweis	16%
	Madison Cawthorn	3%
	Bob Rommel	2%
	Spencer Roach	1%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrat	85%
	Republican	16%
Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republican	83%
	Democrat	18%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	80%
	Elijah Manley	23%
TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner	Justin Pearson	100%
WI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Fred Clark	98%
	Chris Armstrong	1%
	Ginger Murray	1%
Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?	Mary Peltola	81%
	Sen. Dan S. Sullivan	15%
CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Luke Bronin	72%
	John Larson	28%
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner	Jared Moskowitz	95%
	Oliver Larkin	6%
MN-05 Republican Primary Winner	Dalia Al-Aqidi	74%
	John Nagel	28%
FL-25 Republican Primary Winner	Scott Singer	71%
	Dan Franzese	14%
	George Moraitis	11%
WI-03 Democratic Primary Winner	Rebecca Cooke	93%
	Emily Berge	5%
HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Ed Case	81%
	Jarrett Keohokalole	17%
FL-24 Democratic Primary Winner	Shevrin Jones	76%
	Oliver Gilbert	18%
	Roderick Vereen	1%
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner	Steve Friess	52%
	Chuck Gray	37%
	Reid Rasner	5%
	Jillian Balow	4%
	David Giralt	3%
	John Romero-Martinez	3%
	Bo Biteman	1%
	Frank Chapman	1%
	Kevin Christensen	1%
	Keith Goodenough	1%
FL-11 Republican Primary Winner	Joe Strada	67%
	Carey Baker	31%
	Tim Wilkins	6%
FL-07 Republican Primary Winner	Ryan Elijah	56%
	Cory Mills	43%
	Mike Johnson	1%
	Sarah Ulrich	1%
FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Yen Bailey	37%
	Amanda Green	27%
	Nic Zateslo	19%
	Brice Barnes	7%
WI-07 Republican Primary Winner	Michael Alfonso	94%
	Kevin Hermening	5%
	Niina Baum	3%
	Jessi Ebben	2%
	Don Raihala	1%
FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bale Dalton	92%
	Marialana Kinter	8%
	Alan Grayson	1%
TN-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Chaz Molder	99%
Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 3-6%	31%
	Democrat 21%+	24%
	Democrat 9-12%	15%
	Democrat 15-18%	13%
	Democrat 0-3%	10%
	Democrat 6-9%	10%
	Democrat 18-21%	10%
	Republican 3%+	8%
	Democrat 12-15%	7%
	Republican 0-3%	4%
Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 20-25%	29%
	Republican 5-10%	26%
	Republican 25-30%	21%
	Republican 35-40%	16%
	Republican 40%+	15%
	Republican 10-15%	14%
	Republican 30-35%	11%
	Republican 15-20%	9%
	Republican 0-5%	5%
	Democrat Wins	4%
Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 0-5%	43%
	Democrat 30-35%	43%
	Democrat 15-20%	42%
	Democrat 20-25%	42%
	Democrat 5-10%	41%
	Democrat 25-30%	40%
	Democrat 10-15%	31%
	Democrat 35%+	19%
	Republican Wins	17%
Illinois Senate Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 30-35%	43%
	Democrat 5-10%	34%
	Democrat 35%+	31%
	Democrat 25-30%	23%
	Democrat 10-15%	22%
	Democrat 15-20%	19%
	Democrat 0-5%	18%
	Democrat 20-25%	18%
	Republican Wins	11%
Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 35-40%	43%
	Democrat 10-15%	42%
	Democrat 20-25%	41%
	Democrat 25-30%	40%
	Democrat 40-45%	40%
	Democrat 45%+	40%
	Democrat 15-20%	39%
	Democrat 30-35%	34%
	Republican Wins	33%
	Democrat 0-10%	22%
Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 30-35%	42%
	Republican 10-15%	42%
	Republican 0-5%	41%
	Republican 25-30%	38%
	Republican 15-20%	38%
	Republican 5-10%	38%
	Republican 35%+	29%
	Republican 20-25%	23%
	Democrat Wins	18%
Tennessee Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 40%+	44%
	Republican 10-15%	35%
	Republican 35-40%	26%
	Republican 5-10%	18%
	Republican 20-25%	13%
	Republican 30-35%	12%
	Republican 25-30%	12%
	Republican 0-5%	11%
	Democrat Wins	7%
	Republican 15-20%	6%
Tennessee Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 25-30%	44%
	Republican 35-40%	41%

Quote e previsioni delle elezioni di metà mandato 2026

55% probabilità Repubblicani mantengono il Senato

88% probabilità Democratici conquista il Camera

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Quote metà mandato 2026

55% probabilità Repubblicani
mantengono il Senato

88% probabilità Democratici
conquista il Camera