Federal Open Market Committee: Live coverage

Published July 28, 2026 2:43 PM

Updated July 29, 2026 4:07 PM

1 Min Read

Key insight: The Federal Open Market Committee is holding its fifth meeting of the year, its second under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Expert quote: "If the committee or Chair Warsh offer even an inkling of guidance, they likely will indicate that the decision between holding rates steady or hiking in September will be data dependent." —Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.
Forward look: The FOMC will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Follow our live blog for real time updates about the group's decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's post meeting press conference.

The data is in. The Federal Open Market Committee just needs to figure out what to do with it.

The Fed's monetary policy group meets this week for the fifth time this year. Its task: Make sense of a messy economic environment, one in which longer term trend lines have been moving in the right direction while real-time data warns of resurgent inflation.

What the FOMC does and what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says about it could have a profound impact on financial markets and bank balance sheets.

Specifically, inflation as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index fell from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June while the unemployment rate dropped 10 basis points to 4.2%. At the same time, oil prices have risen on the back of renewed tensions in the Middle East and market rates are already pricing in more inflation.

This is Warsh's second meeting as Fed chair. After spending much of his first post-FOMC press conference discussing his reform plans for the central bank — and little else — Warsh could be pressured to explain not only what the committee is doing with monetary policy, but also why.

Then again, he could continue to opt for a less-is-more approach to communications, in which case the onus will be on banks to evaluate the economic outlook and adjust their business lines and holdings accordingly.

"If the committee or Chair Warsh offer even an inkling of guidance, they likely will indicate that the decision between holding rates steady or hiking in September will be data dependent," said Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.

The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, with Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Watch the American Banker homepage for live coverage and analysis.

9 Posts

1d ago

Warsh: Task forces will 'inform' rather than make decisions

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said that the members of the five task forces he has convened to examine various aspects of the central bank's operations and practices will inform but not instruct the Fed's next moves.

Warsh was asked about some of the selections to serve on the task forces, specifically for Marc Andreesen, cofounder of venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and substantial contributor to President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign. Andreesen has also been a vocal supporter of and investor in artificial intelligence, and is tasked with co-chairing the task force on "productivity, jobs and artificial intelligence."

Warsh said the Fed board will be the ones making any final decisions, and that he selected the members of the task forces in order to elicit varying views on important topics.

"I selected 15 incredible subject matter experts to tackle five of the most important questions that, if we can get the answers right, we're going to do a far better job of delivering, and if we get the answers wrong, we have a problem. The comfort that I can give you … is that we're the decision makers. We will be the consumers of the outputs from five different committees. The judgments we're making will be informed by but not at all determined by these outside groups."

1d ago

Warsh's inflation considerations 'broader' than PCE

By Kyle Campbell

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

When evaluating the inflation picture, Warsh is looking at more than just the Fed's preferred measure of price growth.

During his post-FOMC press conference, Warsh said he considers the Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal consumption expenditure index — the data series to which the FOMC's 2% target is tied — but it is not the only important metric.

"I'm looking at a broader set of inflation data than PCE," Warsh said. "Without sort of fully revealing my cards, I'm trying to understand, like my colleagues, what's the underlying generalized change in prices that are happening in the economy."

The Fed chair noted that tracking inflation is "not a perfect science" and noted that the Fed has an ongoing "data project" to better "separate the noise from the signal."

Data and inflation are subjects of exploration for the Fed's ongoing independent task force reviews of its policies.

For now, Warsh said he would adhere to the current policy goal of 2% PCE inflation.

"Yes, I care about what the PCE prints are," he said. "I care about what the contributions are from CPI and everything else, but my lens is broader than that. Even though the remit is quite narrow."

1d ago

Warsh: 'We will deliver' on 2% inflation target

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said that while markets may have gotten the impression that the central bank has become somewhat more tolerant of above-target inflation in recent years, the Fed is committed to getting inflation below 2%.

"I think there was a misimpression … that central bankers like me, we set a 2% inflation target, but maybe we were more tolerable of a somewhat higher inflation target — in economics, that's called a 'revealed inflation preference,'" Warsh said. "What I've heard over the last two days [and] over the last eight-and-a-half weeks is, 'No.' We will deliver the 2% inflation target. That is the committee's definition of price stability."

Warsh's remarks strike a more hawkish tone on inflation than what had been coming from the Fed in recent months. Warsh added that the committee has been working since he rejoined the Fed to understand how much of the inflation the public is experiencing is due to durable increases in prices versus more idiosyncratic market shocks that may diminish with time.

"A lot of our focus was on trying to understand and identify underlying inflation dynamics amid shocks. We take these shocks seriously," Warsh said. "There have been a series of them that have been hitting this economy, we're not looking through them and saying 'Oh they don't matter.' [What] we're trying to understand is, to what extent are these shocks broadening their effects, broadening their impact on prices that are quite far removed from it."

1d ago

Warsh says decision to hold based on more than CPI

By Kyle Campbell

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged came down to more than just a positive inflation report from June.

When asked how much it factored into the ultimate decision, Warsh said "not much."

"We are not relying on any one individual piece of data as cover or as an excuse or as validation," Warsh said. "What I care about, and what I think the committee cares about, is trends on the data."

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index report showed prices rose 3.5% in June, a marked improvement from the May reading of 4.2%.

While a key economic indicator, the CPI report is a backward looking metric, one that could be out of step with real-time data — namely increases in oil prices — impacting pricing today.

"I'll be checking back in within the next couple of weeks, but I wouldn't say we overly relied on any one piece of data, including that data, which surprised some a couple weeks ago," he said of CPI.

Warsh: Limited guidance may have led to bond yield spikes

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said scaled-back guidance from the central bank might have been a factor in record bond yield spikes during the past six weeks.

Warsh described the movement in market rates as a welcome development.

"Market attention centered on real data and real economic developments, prices reacted in real time to incoming information, and the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor," Warsh said. "Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee, and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit. This is, in my view, a change for the better, and we're just getting started."

During his prepared remarks at the beginning of his post-FOMC press conference, Warsh noted that Treasury yields were up "materially" across the maturity spectrum. He noted that the rate increases are not just nominal, but real — meaning they are outpacing inflation.

Warsh has advocated less specific communication from the Fed so that financial markets make their own assessments of the economic outlook, rather than simply reacting to the messaging from the central bank.

"We're trying not to interfere with that market signal," Warsh said. "It's part of the reason why we've been somewhat spare in our words, or we pulled back from forward guidance. So they're reacting to events, I would say, much more directly over the 42 days since we last met. This is a good thing."

Markets regain lost ground on Fed news

Bloomberg News

Market indices, which had been depressed earlier in the day amid gloomy trade news and in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, rebounded somewhat upon learning that the central bank would keep interest rates steady.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been down more than 300 points from its opening high, regained about half of those losses upon the Fed's interest rate news, only to see the index slide again in the minutes following the announcement.

The S&P 500 followed a similar trajectory; the KBW Banking index slid 2 points on the day and hardly moved on the Fed news. Treasury yields, which had declined ahead of the announcement, regained lost ground on the news, with the 10-year Treasury settling at around 4.643% ahead of the Fed press conference.

Fed holds rates steady; three votes for a hike

Bloomberg News

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, a move that was largely expected and reflects the economic uncertainty of the current moment.

Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas, respectively, voted against the move. They all said they would have preferred the committee raise the target range of the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point.

All three reserve bank presidents have raised concerns about sustained high inflation in recent remarks. This is the first time three FOMC members have voted together against a committee decision since September 2016.

The split decision tracks closely with market expectations coming into the meeting, with roughly 70% of federal funds futures contracts pricing in no change and the balance anticipating a hike.

The FOMC's official statement on the decision provided little context about the rationale for the decision. It cited "elevated uncertainty" related to the war with Iran, "strong" productivity growth and capital investment, and an unemployment rate that "changed little."

The statement was almost identical to what the committee released in June, save the description of the dissenting votes and a single word about its balance sheet — after "reaffirming" its ample reserves policy last month, the committee is "continuing" its policy.

Warsh marks the return of the 'live' FOMC meeting

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has said for months that one of his goals as chair is to pare back the Fed's forward guidance to markets, preferring to have the Fed respond to market signals rather than the other way around.

Today, ahead of only his second meeting as chair, markets are showing some of the widest spreads of possible outcomes in years. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, some two-thirds of the market has priced in no change to the Federal Funds Rate; the remaining third of the market is pricing in a 25 basis point increase. By contrast, markets in prior meetings typically show upwards of 99% of market participants pricing in the Fed's next steps.

That volatility marks something of a return to the "live" FOMC meeting, a dynamic that existed between when the post-Federal Open Market Committee press conference was introduced in 2011 and when it was adopted following each FOMC meeting when former Chair Jerome Powell took over in 2018.

Under former chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, the press conferences were only held after every other meeting; the implication for markets was that the committee would not move on interest rates during a meeting without a scheduled press conference. That made FOMC meetings without a press conference more of a formality, while those with press conferences were "live," meaning that the committee might actually move on rates.

Banks, markets expect the Fed to be quiet or ‘hawkish’

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh during his swearing-in ceremony in May 2026.

Bloomberg News

Heading into this week's FOMC meeting, markets are favoring no change to the federal funds rate over a quarter-point hike at a rate of nearly two-to-one.

Just shy of two-thirds of federal funds rate futures contracts have priced in no change to the Fed's benchmark range, which is currently set at 3.5% to 3.75%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The rest of the market expects a 25 basis point increase.

Beyond this week, more than 80% of market participants anticipate higher rates after the next FOMC meeting in September. Bankers and analysts will be reading and listening closely to the committee's post-meeting communication for confirmation of a hawkish — meaning inclined to raise rates — posture going forward.

In a note issued Tuesday, Bank of America's rates and currency research team projected that the FOMC would vote 10-2 to keep rates unchanged, with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike.

"Both policymakers were clear that they want to raise rates in their most recent comments," the group wrote. "One can reasonably ask why Hammack and Logan were so hawkish after not having dissented in June, given that the data flow in the inter-meeting period has been dovish. In our view, they didn't dissent in June because they were willing to accept the removal of the easing bias at that meeting. They might also have decided to extend Warsh a courtesy by not dissenting at his first meeting."

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