Signal

Steel's slowing down. Everything that goes into it isn't. Bulk steel flows dipped this quarter as Chinese exports lost ground in the Gulf. But manganese, chrome and nickel ore all pushed higher, feeding growing demand from Asia's alloy and stainless steel producers. Same chain, opposite directions. Full breakdown in our latest Commodity Radar here: https://lnkd.in/eNh7hAeq #Steel #Commodities #DryBulk #Shipping #SupplyChain

🌍 Earlier this month, Hugo Rousse took the stage at the International Fertilizers Association (IFA) Global Markets Conference 2026 in London to present on drybulk freight trends.   ⚓ His session covered the full picture: how supply and demand set fleet utilization rates impacting freight rates, where fertilizers sit within the broader drybulk market, and why Guinea's grip on bauxite exports and chinese iron ore local extraction are among the biggest swing factors shaping Capesize demand in 2026.   📊 High vs low demand scenarios: the data painted a clear picture with outcomes ranging from +1% to +4.6% Capesize & VLOC demand growth.   💡 The drybulk market is data-driven, and the ability to bundle commodity tradeflows, orderbook, fleet utilization, and short-term disruptions in real time can feed real-time supply and demand models.   🤝 A great event - thanks to the IFA team for their organization and the quality of the exchanges held during the conference.   #IFAConference #Drybulk #FreightMarkets #MaritimeIntelligence #CommodityTradeflow #Fertilizers

Port Hedland's queue just got longer. Vessel waiting times at the port have climbed to their highest level in over a year, and the timing isn't a coincidence. On 16 July, workers at BHP's Port Hedland operations staged their first major industrial action there in more than two decades, an eight-hour stoppage over wages and conditions. BHP says operations continued and cargo kept moving, so the immediate hit was limited. But the market noticed. Capesize rates on the West Australia-Qingdao route eased over the week, and congestion at the world's largest iron ore export terminal is now the clearest read on how this dispute is rippling through freight. Talks between BHP and the unions continue, with further discussions later this month. Further stoppages haven't been ruled out. Full breakdown of this week's dry bulk market, including Panamax, Supramax and Handysize, in our Weekly Dry Market Monitor: https://lnkd.in/ecMRkwAB #DryBulk #Shipping #IronOre #Capesize #FreightMarket #PortHedland

📢 More than 700 tankers are now concentrated on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz as regional tensions intensify again. 👩🏫 The latest Weekly Tanker Market Monitor from Signal features AXSMarine’s live fleet tracker, which recorded 728 tankers across the Arabian Gulf and waters east of the Strait at the end of last week. 🛰️ Of these, 246 vessels were not transmitting an AIS position, while Crude Oil Tankers accounted for 179 vessels, including 123 VLCCs. 🔎 The analysis also shows: 🔹 Ballast vessels outnumbered laden vessels by 394 to 334, with the largest imbalance recorded east of Hormuz 🔹 The AG–China VLCC freight premium over USG–China stood at approximately $260,000/day, compared with a negative differential at the start of 2026 🔹 Since the renewed escalation on 6 July, the share of Hormuz crossings linked to transparent named owners has fallen from 67% to 45% 🔹 Half of the 104 tanker crossings recorded since 6 July took place with AIS switched off, while 63 used the Iranian side of the Strait 📰 Read Signal's full weekly tanker market report at https://lnkd.in/daAnEZGj

728 tankers are now tracked on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, and the number everyone should be watching isn't the count. It's the ownership. Under the MoU's safe-passage window, transparent named ownership on Hormuz crossings rose to 67% as mainstream operators came back. Since Iran resumed attacks on July 6, that's collapsed to 45%, and 103 of the last 104 crossings carried at least one risk marker: opaque or sanctioned ownership, a dark transit, or routing off the standard traffic lane. The freight market is pricing it accordingly. The AG-China VLCC premium over USG-China has swung from -$24,423/day in January to +$260,369/day now, down from March's peak but still firmly positive. Atlantic cargoes are getting more competitive for China-bound trade precisely because Gulf risk hasn't gone away. The catch is that vessel availability doesn't support a risk premium this size on its own. Net VLCC spot/relet supply in the AG has nearly doubled year-on-year. Ships are there. Owners just aren't sure who else is out there with them. Full read in this week's Tanker Market Monitor at https://lnkd.in/d5_e7rWH #Tankers #Shipping #VLCC #Hormuz #Maritime

What if you could just ask the shipping market a question, and get the answer in seconds? That's Signal Skipper, an AI-powered shipping expert on call, backed by our maritime data. For anyone who's worked a commercial desk, you know the drill: the answer is in the data, but getting to it means hopping between screens and exports while the market moves on. So we built something that just answers. Ask it the way you'd ask a colleague: Where are the open Aframaxes in the Med? What's the Capesize C5 trend over the last 90 days? Compare Capesize and Panamax earnings this year. It routes your question, pulls from Signal Ocean's datasets, and comes back with clear tables and charts. Plain language in, real analysis out. It's an early Preview, and it's already impressive. Signal Ocean users can open it in the platform right now and put it to work. If you're not a user yet, this is a good reason to take a look. Watch it in action below. Click here if you’d like a demo: https://lnkd.in/dGCMpxsH #Maritime #Shipping #AI #DryBulk #Tankers #FreightMarkets

How the shock in the Gulf reshaped the aluminium chain. Q2 2026 tells three different stories depending on where you look in the chain: - Bauxite barely moved. Global seaborne flows rose 2% to 68.4mt, with Guinea's gains offsetting Australia's losses. - Alumina felt the disruption directly. Flows slipped roughly 4% as Strait of Hormuz closures cut off key importing nations. The UAE, in particular, lost port access altogether. - Aluminium did the opposite. Seaborne flows jumped 17%, with Australia and Canada stepping up exports even as the UAE pulled back. And despite a US tariff hike from 24% to 50% back in June 2025, American import volumes held roughly flat year-on-year. The read for the rest of 2026: the chain's near-term path depends heavily on whether the US-Iran conflict re-escalates. Further out, Indonesia's expanding smelting capacity looks set to reshape regional alumina demand regardless of how the Gulf situation resolves. Check out our full analysis at https://lnkd.in/ddG8saQU #Aluminium #Bauxite #Alumina #DryBulk #CommodityMarkets #SupplyChain

Pacific Panamax earnings are pulling away from the wider market. P2A_82 closed the week near $32,000/day, maintaining a premium of around $12,000/day over both the P5TC average and P6_82. That gap has widened significantly since the January lows and shows that the Pacific round remains the strongest part of the Panamax market, even as broader earnings have eased from their May highs. Elsewhere in dry bulk: → Capesize remained the main driver of the BDI, with the BCI rising 555 points week-on-week to 4,655. However, Capesize and VLOC tonne-mile indices remained in the low-90% range, suggesting that spot earnings are strengthening faster than underlying demand. → Supramax extended its recovery, with the BSI rising to 1,706 and moving back toward its 52-week high. → Handysize softened again, with the BHSI falling 27 points over the week. The full Week 28 Dry Bulk Market Monitor examines freight rates, forward vessel supply and demand, ballaster positioning, and tonne-mile trends across all four segments. Read our full analysis at https://lnkd.in/dDhkP_p8

The crude tanker orderbook just did something it hasn't done since 2008. In a single half-year, contracting has passed its all-time record, and this time it's a VLCC story. The last great wave spread evenly across the big three sizes; this one is overwhelmingly the largest ships, overwhelmingly built in China. Why now? Owners are paying up. Five-year-old VLCCs change hands above the price of a newbuild, so ordering steel looks cheap by comparison. A year of Hormuz risk keeping freight elevated has done the rest. The catch sits in 2028, when most of these ships hit the water. A record order wave today is tomorrow's supply question. Full read in this week's Tanker Market Monitor here: https://lnkd.in/eBdDSiCe #Tankers #Shipping #VLCC #Newbuilding #Maritime

This week the dry bulk market went up. Sort of. Look closer and it was one segment doing all the lifting. Capesize ran hard and dragged the index up with it. Everything else was flat to softer. A rally carried by a single size is not the same as a broad one, and it rarely lasts as long as the headline suggests. The more interesting move was the quiet one. Underneath the rally, forward vessel supply built across every class, fastest exactly where spot has already stopped climbing. When the ships gather while only one size is bid, the tape and the fundamentals start telling slightly different stories. Watch the breadth, not the print. Full Week 27 Dry Bulk Monitor here: https://lnkd.in/eQAusBUX #DryBulk #Shipping #Capesize #FreightMarket #Maritime