Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first f... more Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first few elections. Recent research has shown that elections that do not stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a 'footprint' of low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a high turnout footprint. So a country's turnout history provides a baseline for current turnout that is largely set, except for young adults. This realization requires us to take a new approach to understanding the mainsprings of turnout changeand hence of turnout decline. In this paper, we theorize about the longitudinal effects on turnout of changes in the character of elections, and test this theory using data from every one of the 22 countries that have held elections continuously since 1945: 356 elections in all.
Positive effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes have been found in several comparativ... more Positive effects of campaign spending on electoral outcomes have been found in several comparative, multiparty contexts (e.g. Britain, France, Japan, and Australia) but very few of these systems use proportional representation (PR). If positive effects from spending are robust, however, then we would also expect to find that they generalize to systems using more proportional rules. Our study examines the link between spending and electoral success under the "semi-proportional" Single-Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system. Using spending and electoral data from the Irish general elections of 2002, we estimate the effects of candidate spending in both absolute and relative terms. Testing both inter-and intra-party spending effects we find a positive and statistically significant relationship between spending and electoral success. Increased spending on behalf of a candidate brings more votes for that candidate, not only in competition against all candidates but also against own-party competitors. Furthermore, outspending rival candidates, whether in general or within one's own party, improves a candidate's vote share. Spending more also directly increases a candidate's chance of winning a seat. Finally, and consistent with findings in numerous other contexts, but contrary to previous results from preferential elections using PR (e.g. Brazil, Flanders) we find that incumbent spending is only about three-fifths as effective in winning additional votes as challenger spending.
The Irish national election study: Puzzles and priorities
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 07907180108406637, Oct 19, 2007
Ireland has a substantial corpus of research on elections and electoral behaviour. In terms of st... more Ireland has a substantial corpus of research on elections and electoral behaviour. In terms of studies based on survey research, this started with Whyte's (1974) seminal contribution, the one that coined the phrase" politics without social bases". Research on Irish electoral behaviour continued in the chapters on voting behaviour in various books on specific Irish elections since 1977 (Sinnott, 1978; Sinnott, 1987; Laver, Sinnott and Marsh, 1987; Marsh and Sinnott, 1993; Marsh and Sinnott, 1999). It has also been developed by thematic ...
Political Effects of Low Turnout in the 2002 Irish General Election
This paper focuses on replication in the sense of Herrnson (1995). It reexamines the only study o... more This paper focuses on replication in the sense of Herrnson (1995). It reexamines the only study of an Irish popularity function (Borooah and Borooah, 1990) in the light of recent developments in econometric methodology and in Irish politics. Using error correction models the analysis provides an alternative account of the relationship between economics and government popularity to that provided by Borooah and Borooah. The findings indicate that the short-term impact of the economy is weaker than, and different from, that suggested by them. Economic influences at most set the general level of government approval rather than determine the quarter-by-quarter fluctuations.
Against a background of the Irish government's concerns with Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) an... more Against a background of the Irish government's concerns with Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and the British government's wishes for a more quantitative Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), our study conducts a relative impact assessment of the study of politics, government, political science, and international relations in Ireland. Impact is measured as citations from the publications of permanent staff in eight Irish politics departments, based on data compiled in April 2008 from two leading academic indexes-ISI's Web of Science and Scopus-as well as the now popular Google Scholar. We discuss some of the criticisms that naturally arise in a study of this nature. Then, following similar exercises in other disciplines (e.g. economics), we use the impact measures to compare and rank individual scholars as well as departments. We also explore the extent to which the choice of different indexes, and different measures, influences the results that we obtain. While there are differences, in particular between indexes based purely on articles and those that access books and other material, the results from the different indexes are strongly correlated. I OVERVIEW M easuring the impact of academic research has attracted heightened interest as governments in Europe and elsewhere formulate policies to allocate resources to this increasingly competitive area. While formal 269
Electing Women to the D�il: Gender Cues and the Irish Voter
Irish Political Studies, 2011
Consequences of low turnout: Introduction
Electoral Studies an International Journal, 2007
Party identification and party choice in Ireland
Aggregate Data for Established Democracies, 1945–1999
Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945, 2004
Irish political data 1994
Irish Political Studies, 1995
Moss replaced Tim Smith in October 1994, the latter resigning from the Government over a&... more Moss replaced Tim Smith in October 1994, the latter resigning from the Government over a'cash for questions' scandal. Smith had been appointed to the ministerial team in January 1994 following the sideways move of Robert Atkins to a post in the UK Environment Dept. Denton replaced Lord Arran, also in January 1994.
What People Think or Changing What They Think About?1
Irish political data 1995
Irish Political Studies, 1996
1. MINISTERS AND SECRETARIES (AMENDMENT) ACT. An Act to amend section I of the Ministers and Secr... more 1. MINISTERS AND SECRETARIES (AMENDMENT) ACT. An Act to amend section I of the Ministers and Secretaries (Amendment)(2) Act, 1977 [27 Jan]. 2. ADOPTIVE LEAVE ACT. An Act to entitle female employees and in certain circumstances male employees, to employment leave for the purpose of child adoption, to extend to them the protection against unfair dismissal conferred by the Unfair Dismissals Act, 1977, and to provide for connected matters [15 March]. 3. SOCIAL WELFARE ACT. An Act to amend and extend the Social ...
Irish political data 1993
Irish Political Studies, 1994
1 Government members, ministers of state, opposition front bench spokespersons (a) Republic of Ir... more 1 Government members, ministers of state, opposition front bench spokespersons (a) Republic of Ireland (b) Northern Ireland 2 State of the parties in parliament (a) Republic of Ireland: D&l Eireann (b) Northern Ireland: UK House of Commons 3 Parliamentary committees (a) Republic of Ireland (b) Northern Ireland MPs in the House of Commons 4 Legislation (a) Republic of Ireland: Private Acts: Public Acts (b) Northern Ireland: Public Acts: Orders in Council 5 Election results (a) Northern Ireland: Local elections 6 Opinion polls:(a ...
Irish political data 1992
Irish Political Studies, 1993
Reynolds took over Energy from Bobby Molloy (PD) and Flynn took over Industry and Commerce from D... more Reynolds took over Energy from Bobby Molloy (PD) and Flynn took over Industry and Commerce from Desmond O'Malley (PD) when the PDs left the government on 4 November. Mary Harney (PD) left her post of Minister of State for the Environment on the same day. From the time that the Dall was dissolved on 5 November, the government listed above served as a caretaker administration.
Irish political data 1991
Irish Political Studies, 1992
1 EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT ACT. An act to approve of the terms of the agr... more 1 EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT ACT. An act to approve of the terms of the agreement establishing the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development done at Paris on the 29th day of May, 1990, and to provide for connected matters (including payments)[27th February]. 2 MARINE INSTITUTE ACT. An act to make provision for the carrying out of marine research and development and related services, to secure the coordination of the resources of the State used for marine research and for ...
Irish political data 1990
Irish Political Studies, 1991
AH Ministers Fianna Fail unless otherwise stated. Brian Lenihan was dismissed as Tanaiste and Min... more AH Ministers Fianna Fail unless otherwise stated. Brian Lenihan was dismissed as Tanaiste and Minister for Defence on 31 October. John Wilson took over as Tanaiste on 13 November and the Taoiseach took responsibility for Defence, pending a reshuffle which eventually took place on 5 February 1991. Alan Dukes resigned as FG leader on 13 November and was replaced by John Bruton on 20 November. FG's new front bench team was not announced until 14 January 1991.
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