Over the past centuries, numerous examples of what we now call multifunctional flood defenses (MF... more Over the past centuries, numerous examples of what we now call multifunctional flood defenses (MFFDs) have emerged in the Netherlands, ranging from houses or even entire villages built on polder dikes, to large scale developments in urban areas like Rotterdam, Dordrecht and Scheveningen. These developments were not planned as such, but emerged as a consequence of often-unforeseen events.
In order for policy makers to effectively manage the process of the diffusion of renewable energy... more In order for policy makers to effectively manage the process of the diffusion of renewable energy technologies, it is important to understand the mechanisms behind the diffusion process of such technologies. Most of the literature on innovation diffusion focuses on static or relatively simple dynamic models of diffusion. Recently, researchers have argued that analyzing innovation diffusion needs new methods, allowing for a more comprehensive dynamic analysis. With this aim in view, this research used system dynamics modelling as a dynamic tool for modelling wind turbine diffusion. To be able to see to what extent system dynamics is able to capture the underlying mechanisms of diffusion processes, a known case of wind turbine diffusion in California and Denmark was chosen as a comparative case study. The results showed that Denmark was more successful due to various reasons: high oil prices, strong networks enabling knowledge sharing, and determination of the government. This researc...
Dit rapport is geschreven in het kader van het Nationaal Onderzoekprogramma Kennis voor Klimaat (... more Dit rapport is geschreven in het kader van het Nationaal Onderzoekprogramma Kennis voor Klimaat (www.kennisvoorklimaat.nl). Dit onderzoeksprogramma wordt medegefinancierd door het Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu.
International series in management science/operations research, 2013
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein.
An application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to risk analysis of multifunctional flood defences in the Netherlands
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Feb 1, 2017
Abstract Multifunctional use of flood defences is seen as a promising solution for improving the ... more Abstract Multifunctional use of flood defences is seen as a promising solution for improving the synergy between flood protection and urban development. Combining the functions can, however, create unintended dependencies, which can influence the desired performance of the system in unexpected ways. Recognising the risks associated with these dependencies early during the conceptual design phase can help to improve the system capability to mitigate the resulting threats and to take advantage of the opportunities created. This paper examines the use of the ‘Functional Resonance Analysis Method’ (FRAM) for qualitative risk analysis of multifunctional flood defences. The method is customised and applied to a case study of a multifunctional flood defence in the Netherlands. The analysis results are used to identify the threats and opportunities that need attention during the design of a multifunctional flood defence and to propose recommendations for how to address them. It is concluded that FRAM can serve as a useful complement to the reliability analysis methods for enriching the risk analysis of multifunctional flood defences.
Adaptive delta management: development, acculturation, and dissemination in Bangladesh and Indonesia
Public policy analysis : new developments
Springer eBooks, 2013
Introduction.- A Policy Sciences View on Policy Analysis.- Perspectives on Policy Analysis: A Fra... more Introduction.- A Policy Sciences View on Policy Analysis.- Perspectives on Policy Analysis: A Framework for Understanding and Design.- Diagnosing Policy Problems and Situations.- Designing the Policy Analysis Process.- Organizing the Policy Analysis Process.- System Models for Policy Analysis.- Actor Models for Policy Analysis.- Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis.
A modelling approach
Experimental work in a controlled setting: a simulation/gaming approach
Modeling of farmers’ livelihood decision making to understand their adaptation response to changing conditions in southwest coastal Bangladesh in the Ganges delta
International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 2019
Delta communities worldwide are facing a multitude of challenges in their life and livelihood. In... more Delta communities worldwide are facing a multitude of challenges in their life and livelihood. In many developing countries, improving the quality of life and livelihood is a key challenge. While development is a central goal of delta planning in such countries, the effectiveness of planning is challenged by uncertain changes in climate and socio-economy. Bangladesh (one of the countries) is moving towards the adaptive delta management approach to deal with such uncertainties. Historical examples illustrate that Community Livelihood Adaptation (CLA) can critically influence the effectiveness of a policy strategy. Therefore, there is a clear need to explore CLA under uncertainty. For that purpose, this paper develops and applies a conceptual model-based approach combining the mental model and scenarios techniques. Our approach starts by using a participatory process to elicit mental models a farmers' community uses when considering adaptation decisions; we capture these in the form of a cognitive map, and this map can serve as a conceptual model for analyzing livelihood adaptation decision-making in a future-oriented scenario analysis. To illustrate the approach, a case study of cropping decision-making of farmers community at a polder location under the saline condition in the southwest of Bangladesh has been elaborated. Results show that the approach is useful in structuring the cognitive and qualitative nature of complex decisionmaking process, and helps in understanding the dynamic interactions of farmers' adaptation decisions with other actors, their environmental attributes, and market traits. It can help policymakers anticipate the adaptation direction of policy strategies.
Flexibility is often proposed as a valuable capability to cope with uncertainty and change. Howev... more Flexibility is often proposed as a valuable capability to cope with uncertainty and change. However, there is no consensus about what constitutes flexibility across the literature. A review of publications on flood management, real options and manufacturing reveals remarkable commonalities along with substantial inconsistencies in the use of flexibility. These observations are used for structuring the discussion of flexibility in this paper. A framework is proposed in the form of four self-consistent and step-wise questions: (Q1) why is flexibility needed; (Q2) what is it that flexibility is required for; (Q3) what are the dimensions of flexibility; (Q4) what needs to change or be adapted? In order to answer the questions in the context of multifunctional flood defences (MFFDs), eight characteristic features of flexibility in connection with the four questions are distilled from the synthesized publications. Subsequently, a working definition of flexibility is developed. An illustra...
While adaptation to changing circumstances is a phenomenon of all times, climate change has fuell... more While adaptation to changing circumstances is a phenomenon of all times, climate change has fuelled an interest in approaches and methods to anticipate longer-term change and uncertainty. Actors are looking for ways to navigate between ignoring uncertainties, for example by basing decisions on a single future scenario, and inaction, overwhelmed by uncertainty about the future. An opening is offered by shifting attention from investing in reducing future uncertainties (better knowing the future) to the question: 'What can we best do now to achieve our goals, knowing that the future is uncertain?' This shift will require adjustment of regular planning approaches. Notably, problem analysis will have to include exploring the performance of current management approaches under a range of possible futures. Furthermore, the design and evaluation of options and strategies will have to explicitly account for future uncertainties. A new approach for adaptation planning, adaptive delta management (ADM), was introduced in the context of the socalled Delta Programme in the Netherlands (van Rhee ; Delta Programme Commissioner ; Bloemen ). Key elements are: to explicitly take future uncertainties into account; to identify adaptation tipping points (Kwadijk et al. ; Jeuken & te Linde ); to develop adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al. ; Ranger et al. ); to include and value flexibility; and to avoid 'lock-in' (Delta Programme Commissioner ).
Uploads
Papers by Wil Thissen