Timothy Rich

Western Kentucky University, Political Science, Faculty Member

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Address: Bowling Green, Kentucky, United States

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Papers by Timothy Rich

Integrating Microstates into Cross-National Research: An Exploratory Analysis

Journal of international & global studies, Nov 1, 2014

How do microstates potentially challenge our understanding of international and comparative polit... more How do microstates potentially challenge our understanding of international and comparative politics? Microstates comprise as many as one-fifth of all sovereign states yet are rarely incorporated into cross-national research. Cursory analysis suggests that microstates challenge the conventional wisdom in several ways. This paper highlights some of these challenges and presents preliminary quantitative evidence suggestive of a microstate divergence. Ultimately the evidence here makes the case for increased consideration of the theoretical and empirical leverage attained by analysis of microstates.

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Voter Perceptions and Behavior in East Asian Mixed Systems

Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia, May 31, 2013

How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis... more How do mixed legislative systems shape voter behavior and public perceptions? Through an analysis of the electoral systems in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, this paper evaluates the extent to which the public in these three countries understand their mixed systems and whether claims of voter ignorance translate into irrational voting behavior based on the institutional effects of mixed systems. Through a multi-method approach including data from outside of East Asia, this analysis seeks to determine whether these three cases exhibit patterns consistent with other mixed systems. Empirical analysis affirms levels of strategic voting consistent with comprehension of electoral rules. Furthermore, this analysis suggests a disconnect between practical knowledge and electoral expectations.

format_quote58.88% of respondents in East Asia do not understand their mixed electoral system, rising to 69.48% among non-voters in 2008.format_quote

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Understanding Sino-African Relations: Neocolonialism or a New Era?

The Journal of International and Area Studies, Jun 1, 2013

What motivates increased relations between China and African countries? While Chinese interests i... more What motivates increased relations between China and African countries? While Chinese interests in natural resources throughout Africa is well known, less attention is given to whether these interests are short-term or long-term in nature. We challenge the assumption of Chinese neocolonialism without portraying growing relations as void of problems for African development. Instead of viewing these relations from one of two polarized positions, we suggest that reality is somewhere in the middle, with the potential for deeper mutually beneficial relationships coexisting with some level of exploitation.

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All Are Not Equal: Taiwanese Public Opinion on Southeast Asian Immigration

International Journal of Taiwan Studies

What influences Taiwanese public opinion on immigration? Taiwan faces the same immigration challe... more What influences Taiwanese public opinion on immigration? Taiwan faces the same immigration challenges as many other developed nations, where the demand for immigrant workers produces a domestic backlash. Our study addresses to what extent public opinions on immigration are influenced by two factors: the skills of immigrants and their place of origin. Our results show, besides the preference for skilled labour, that public opinion on the three Southeast Asian immigrant groups varies considerably, with the strongest negative reaction to Indonesian migrants. As Taiwan prides its progress on human rights among East Asian democracies, the results suggest the need for targeted policy efforts to overcome public biases towards Southeast Asian immigrants.

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Chinese Nationalism And Cross-strait Relations In The Post-war Era

Taiwan has played a prominent role in Chinese politics since the founding of the People's Rep... more Taiwan has played a prominent role in Chinese politics since the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. For decades, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) called for the "liberation" of the island, with the tone of the rhetoric changing but not the goal of unification. While cross-strait relations may have warmed under the Ma Ying-jeou administration and Sino-American relations beyond the Taiwan issue have greatly improved in the past decade, the role which Taiwan plays in Chinese nationalism may still lead to an undesired conflict. This article highlights the role of Taiwan within the Chinese nationalism and specifically how the island's democratisation challenges this narrative. While economic relations between both sides increase, these underlying tensions do not preclude future military confrontation

format_quoteTaiwan's democratization undermines PRC claims that democracy is unsuitable for Chinese culture, challenging the CCP's narrative.format_quote

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Why Help North Korea? Foreign Aid to North Korea and Its Determinants, 2002–2018*

Pacific Focus, 2021

Since North Korea solicited international assistance due to famine in 1995, the international com... more Since North Korea solicited international assistance due to famine in 1995, the international community has provided billions of dollars of aid to the country. Despite multiple challenges from donors' perspectives, bilateral donors continue to extend aid grants that play a significant role in sustaining North Korea's dysfunctional economy. Nevertheless, there are great variations among bilateral donors in terms of aid amounts to North Korea. This article investigates the determinants of donors' aid allocation decision to North Korea and finds that dyadic factors – diplomatic ties, foreign policy similarities, and bilateral trade volume – are significantly associated with some donors' aid allocation to this country. It shows that, consistent with their aid allocations elsewhere, Nordic Plus donors have different aid policies toward North Korea compared to those of non‐Nordic Plus donors. This article suggests the need for donors' concerted efforts to make changes ...

Evidence from abroad suggests that mixed legislative systems have much to commend them, but close attention must be paid to national contexts

Different countries use different electoral systems, with one key variant being the number of ele... more Different countries use different electoral systems, with one key variant being the number of elected representatives in each district or constituency. Timothy S. Rich argues that context is important in assessing the desirability of mixed legislative systems, which on paper have much to commend them to electoral reformers.

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Who is welcome? South Korean public opinion on North Koreans and other refugees

Japanese Journal of Political Science, 2021

What explains South Korean public opposition for refugees and does the public differentiate among... more What explains South Korean public opposition for refugees and does the public differentiate among groups? Although a sizable literature addresses perceptions of North Korean arrivals, few studies directly compare sentiment for this group to others. Using an original web survey with an embedded experimental design, we find clear greater support for accepting North Korean arrivals compared to both non-ethnic Korean refugees and Muslim refugees. Additional analysis finds clear majorities view Islam as incompatible with Korean values. Our results suggest the challenge of encouraging multiculturalism in the largely homogeneous country.

format_quoteBacklash against Yemeni refugees included 700,000-signature petition, reflecting extreme public opposition tied to ethnic and religious identity.format_quote

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Research note: Does the public support fact-checking social media? It depends who and how you ask

Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review, 2020

We analyze original survey data on support for social media companies’ fact-checking of politicia... more We analyze original survey data on support for social media companies’ fact-checking of politicians in general and President Trump in particular. We find overwhelming majorities of Democrats sup-port fact-checking in both instances, while a majority of Republicans support fact-checking of politicians in general but not of President Trump. Moreover, we find those concerned about contracting COVID-19 are more likely to support fact-checks. Rather than viewing fact-checks as a cure-all, we argue the importance of acknowledging their limitations and identifying when and on whom ef-forts may be effective.

format_quoteFact-checking has little evidence of changing support for candidates, potentially increasing partisan tensions instead.format_quote

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When the choice is made matters: voting in Japan’s 2012 House of Representatives election

Political Science, Jan 2, 2018

What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan's 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one's district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socio-economic factors.

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Coattails and Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from Taiwan's 2016 Election

Journal of East Asian Studies, 2018

To what extent do presidential candidates influence voting in mixed member legislative elections?... more To what extent do presidential candidates influence voting in mixed member legislative elections? A sizable literature addresses presidential–legislative coattail effects in the American context, with less attention given to this interaction in non-Western democracies. Nor is the role of past voting behavior adequately assessed in the literature. Taiwan's historic 2016 election allows for an analysis of the extent in which the popularity of presidential candidates influences coattail voting in the more complex electoral environment of two-vote mixed legislative systems. Evidence finds that, controlling for partisanship and previous voting behavior, voters who supported a presidential candidate were more likely to also support the party's legislative candidates, although this influence is stronger in regards to Democratic Progressive Party's Tsai Ing-wen.

format_quoteAnalysis found strong coattail effects for all three presidential candidates, particularly for Tsai and the DPP.format_quote

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Running Out of Time? The Evolution of Taiwan's Relations in Africa

Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 2015

This article highlights the precarious nature of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in Africa. Whe... more This article highlights the precarious nature of Taiwan's diplomatic relations in Africa. Whereas Cold War rationales initially benefitted Taiwan, economic interests now appear to incentivize African countries to establish relations with China. Through qualitative and quantitative data covering much of the post-World War II era, this analysis argues that economic factors have trumped political rationales for Taiwanese–African relations. In addition, this article problematizes both conceptions of diplomatic recognition and Taiwan's enduring relations with Africa.

format_quoteLikelihood of African countries recognizing Taiwan decreased from 7.89% during the Cold War to 4.75% post-Cold War.format_quote

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Assessing Losers Consent in Mixed Systems: Public Perceptions of Taiwan’s 2008 Legislative Yuan Election

Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia, 2016

A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning partie... more A large literature identifies perceptual differences between citizens that support winning parties versus losing parties. These analyses fail to capture the complexity of mixed member legi이ative systems where one can be a winner or loser at both the national and district level. This paper proposes a two-level framework for the analysis of mixed system. An analysis of Taiwan's first election under a mixed system provides evidence that both support for a national winner and district level winner produce boosts in positive perceptions of the electoral system. National success appears to be a larger motivator of perceptions. Elections are the foundation of representative democracy. Partisan differences in opinion naturally arise, yet until recently, few researchers analyzed the perceptions of democratic quality between those who win versus those who lose out in electoral competition. Losers' consent remains crucial for democratic stability and the variance in perceptions between winners and losers provides a means to assess the stability in democracies young and old. Despite the insight from this growing literature, researchers continue to focus primarily on Western democracies. Furthermore, what constitutes a winner requires greater clarity, particularly in mixed legislative system elections where voters choose both a district candidate and a party list. This paper intends to extend our understanding of losers' consent through a multilevel conception of electoral success, a conception more in tune with the dynamics of mixed systems. By definition mixed legislative systems employ at least two mechanisms to allocate seats in one chamber of a legislature. Most of these combinations are single member districts (SMDs) like those in the United States and United Kingdom, combined with seats by proportional representation (PR) allocated at the national or provincial level.1 Mixed systems were a rarity prior to 1990 with Germany as the only democracy to consistently employ a mixed legislative system. Since 1990 however, mixed systems have arisen in East and Southeast Asia, the former communist world, Latin America, Africa, and New Zealand. Just as pure PR systems were the electoral system of choice in the twentieth century, mixed systems have the potential to proliferate in a similar

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Lesotho’s 2015 Legislative Election: Providing or Undermining Stability?

Journal of Asian and African Studies, 2015

Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho’s newly found democratic stability. Observers focus o... more Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho’s newly found democratic stability. Observers focus on educating the public about the electoral system and encouraging pre-election coalition discussions. However, this analysis suggests that such remedies ignore the institutional influences of Lesotho’s electoral system that undermine both public understanding and stability. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of district competition finds the 2015 elections to be largely consistent with previous elections, but that the percentage of rejected ballots correlates with a district victory for the largest party. Although this may simply be a statistical anomaly, the findings highlight structural challenges and reconsideration of electoral reforms.

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Can Democratic Consolidation Make a Country Less Secure? The Case of Taiwan

Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia, 2009

format_quoteDemocratization in Taiwan increased domestic stability but risks heightened conflict with China due to divergent political stances.format_quote

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District Competition in Japan’s 2014 Election: The Roles of Nominations, Incumbency, and Dual Listing

Representation, 2016

Duverger's Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from... more Duverger's Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from mixed member systems is less consistent with these theoretical expectations. Rather than simply focusing on whether Japan's most recent House of Representatives election converges toward Duvergerian equilibrium, this article focuses on three factors within Japan. In particular, how do the roles of major party nominations, incumbency, and dual-listing shape district competition vis-a `-vis Duverger? Empirical results find that the lack of a Democratic Party of Japan candidate decreases the effective number of candidates, while the lack of a Liberal Democratic Party candidate, multiple incumbents, and duallisting correlates with an increased number of candidates. The results suggest that often ignored underlying effects of Japan's mixed system influences its consistency with theoretical expectations.

format_quoteThis analysis clarifies influences on district candidate numbers, revealing divergences between major parties' nominations.format_quote

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Losers’ and Non-voters’ Consent: Democratic Satisfaction in the 2009 and 2013 Elections in Germany

Government and Opposition, 2016

The literature on losers’ consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy betwe... more The literature on losers’ consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy between electoral losers and winners. However, little of the literature addresses the complexities of mixed member electoral systems or compares this winner–loser divergence to that of non-voters. An analysis of post-election surveys in Germany in 2009 and 2013 allows for a disaggregation of types of losers and non-voters. Results find that voting for a district candidate from a losing party has a greater effect on perceptions than voting for a losing party in the proportional representation tier, while losing in both appeared to slow the decline in positive evaluations of the system. Meanwhile clear distinctions between perceptions of different types of non-voters emerge.

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District level competition in Mexico’s chamber of deputies: an embedded analysis

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 2016

ABSTRACT Why does Mexico’s mixed legislative system diverge from Duverger’s Law? Rather than reha... more ABSTRACT Why does Mexico’s mixed legislative system diverge from Duverger’s Law? Rather than rehash cultural and historical explanations, we suggest two institutional factors – a fused ballot and compulsory voting laws – may explain this divergence. Cross-national evidence controlling for these factors suggests Mexico is not an outlier and that the fused ballot encourages multiparty district competition. The results also suggest ways reforms could bring competition closer toward Duvergerian expectations.

Understanding Sino-African Relations: Neocolonialism or a New Era?

Journal of International and Area Studies, Jun 30, 2013

format_quoteSino-African relations boost public revenues and export levels, suggesting an integrated economic reliance between China and Africa.format_quote

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Why invest in North Korea? Chinese foreign direct investment in North Korea and its implications

The Pacific Review, 2015

Abstract North Korea has been regarded as the least likely place to attract foreign investors due... more Abstract North Korea has been regarded as the least likely place to attract foreign investors due to its poor infrastructure, policy reversals, and totalitarian regime. However, the recent growth of Chinese direct investment in North Korea has drawn much attention due to its implications for the North Korean economy and regional stability. This research provides an analytical framework by considering two fundamental issues that any foreign investor takes into account when making an investment decision: property rights protection and profitability. It examines how recent changes have influenced these two issues, which, in turn, shaped the incentive structure of Chinese private investors.

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