Loop reposted this
UPS reported Q2 2026 earnings this morning. A few things shippers should pay attention to: 📦 Volume is still down - but the mix is shifting for good. ADV fell 3.3% Y/Y to 16.0M pieces. The 18-month Amazon glide-down is now complete, removing ~2M lower-yielding packages per day. UPS says incremental volume from here comes from higher-quality freight: SMB, Healthcare, Industrial, and Automotive. 💰 Revenue-per-piece is outpacing cost-per-piece - and by a real margin. In U.S. Domestic, RPP grew 130 bps faster than cost per piece Y/Y. Operating margin hit 8.0%, up 100 bps Y/Y and a full 400 bps sequentially from 1Q26. Consolidated revenue came in at $22.8B (+7.6% Y/Y), non-GAAP adj. operating profit $2.1B (+12.0%), EPS $1.76 vs $1.55. ⛽ Fuel is doing heavier lifting on RPP than shippers may realize. RPP grew 9.3% in the first half - roughly half from fuel, half from mix/rate improvements. Internationally, RPP was up 18.9%, with more than half of that coming from fuel. Notably, UPS is leaning into fuel as a growth lever right now, while FedEx talked it down on their last call. That divergence matters for how each carrier frames surcharge language heading into contract season. 🎯 The Amazon Shipping question got a non-answer. When asked directly about competition from Amazon's own shipping network, Tomé didn't name the competitor. Instead she leaned on relationship depth at the C-suite level with shippers and UPS's industry-leading on-time delivery performance. Reasonable talking points - but notably not an answer to the actual question. Worth watching how long "trust and reliability" holds as a strategy if Amazon Shipping keeps taking share at the low end of the market. 💵 Balance sheet remains solid. $3.1B in cash from operations YTD, $4.7B cash on hand, no outstanding commercial paper, $2.7B in dividends paid. 📅 Full-year guidance raised on the back of 1H strength. Revenue now guided to ~$91.2B and non-GAAP adj. EPS to ~$7.22 - both moved up from the prior outlook. What this means for shippers: → Fuel is a stated lever for UPS's revenue growth, not just a pass-through cost - scrutinize fuel mechanism language closely in your next negotiation. → RPP beating CPP by 130 bps is UPS's proof that price discipline is working. Don't expect broad-based discounting to return unless you have a solid negotiating strategy in place. → Low-yield, Amazon-style volume is gone (for now). If your profile looks like SMB, Healthcare, Industrial, or Automotive, you have more leverage than you think. → Watch the gap between UPS's fuel messaging and FedEx's more conservative tone - that divergence is a lever shippers can use at the table. → Amazon Shipping is the elephant in the room UPS won't name. If you have volume Amazon could plausibly take, that's your leverage - use it. Uncomfortable with that? Start small, and let Amazon prove it while sending the message to the legacy carriers.