Prediction Frontier

In an industry first, NEXTPredict has used Kalshi's flight-cancellation market to hedge $3 million in conference risk ahead of its October summit in New York, with Susquehanna International Group serving as market maker. The position marks a notable shift for prediction markets, from forecasting outcomes to becoming practical corporate hedging infrastructure. https://lnkd.in/e6UHEU5q

Underdog has launched its own federally licensed prediction market exchange. The exchange will operate inside the existing Underdog app, allowing users to trade event contracts on sports, culture and other topics directly through Underdog. https://lnkd.in/dBnc-tqM

Today we're publishing the inaugural edition of the Prediction Frontier Weekly Data Brief; institutional-grade market intelligence on prediction markets, out every week from here on. This week's numbers, in three lines: → World Cup Winner volume fell 19% week-on-week to $165.6M — but order-book depth collapsed 46%, twice as fast. Capital held its positions while the casual flow left the market. → All-time cross-venue notional volume across the 9 venues we track: $300B. Kalshi and Polymarket are only ~82% of it — Robinhood’s and Susquehanna International Group’s Rothera crossed $2B in volumes, capturing ~7% of US prediction market volumes. → H1 2026 venture funding into prediction markets: $1.85B — more than exchanges, more than AI. Each week, we'll track what moved, what drove the repricing, where liquidity and capital are concentrating, how the venue landscape is shifting, and what's worth watching next. The first edition breaks down the World Cup's liquidity contraction, the widening venue map, where non-sports activity is emerging, and what current liquidity tells us about the market's institutional readiness. Impartial, data-led intelligence on a sector that is still taking shape. Key findings in the slides below. Full brief here https://lnkd.in/dHFJkR44 #PredictionMarkets #EventContracts #MarketIntelligence #Forecasting

Kalshi has launched a new Pro trading terminal as it expands further into regulated perpetual futures. The new tools add advanced charting, deeper market visibility and multi-market position management. Read the full article: [https://lnkd.in/dkPBGC_r]

Gibraltar has put what it describes as the world's first dedicated prediction-market regulatory regime into effect. On the same day, Eventus International announced Europe’s first dedicated prediction markets summit will take place in the jurisdiction this November. As European authorities continue to differ on how prediction markets should be classified, Gibraltar is taking a distinct regulatory approach. Read the full article: [https://lnkd.in/dKbKPFxP]

Kalshi has been denied a preliminary injunction in its Southern District of New York case before Judge Analisa Torres. The exchange had asked the court to stop New York gaming regulators from applying state gambling laws to its sports-event contracts while the case proceeds. Read the full story: [https://lnkd.in/da6yuNHb]

Prospect Markets is eyeing a U.S. launch for sports prediction markets through a proposed deal with Crypto.com-linked OG Broker. The non-binding LOI targets a Q3 2026 rollout, subject to definitive agreements and regulatory approvals. Read the full story: [https://lnkd.in/dvHNAH8q] #PredictionMarkets #SportsMarkets #EventContracts

A recent CNBC analysis by Ananya Chetia offers a useful reality check on one of prediction markets’ biggest promises: the wisdom of crowds. The theory is simple. Put real money behind competing views, bring enough independent participants into a market, and the resulting price can become a useful signal about an uncertain outcome. But CNBC’s review of Polymarket data suggests that condition is not yet met across much of the platform. Roughly seven in ten closed markets recorded less than $10,000 in total volume, while more than 45,000 saw no trading at all. That does not make thin markets useless, or mean the wisdom-of-crowds thesis is wrong. But it does mean that, across much of the long tail, a displayed probability may reflect a far smaller and less visible mix of participants than users assume. In our latest piece, Prediction Frontier builds on CNBC’s analysis to examine what thin, uneven participation means for the wisdom-of-crowds case behind prediction markets. Read the full article: [https://lnkd.in/dap7TF2j]