Prediction Markets Report

🎙️ New Episode Alert 🎙️ In this episode, Matt (Meir) Vegh speaks with Daniel Taylor, Professor at The Wharton School, Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, and a member of Kalshi's Independent Surveillance Audit Committee. Daniel discusses: 1. The similarities and differences between insider trading in equity markets and prediction markets. 2. Why the claim that insider trading leads to more informed prices is a myth. 3. Why Kalshi is uniquely positioned to set the standard for prediction market integrity. 4. The specific measures that should be implemented to combat insider trading in prediction markets. 🎧 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/gcSSFTDy

Spent some time talking about Prediction Markets and the EU with Matt (Meir) Vegh on his podcast, the Prediction Markets Report, last week. A few things we discussed: 1. Gibraltar. Not EU, but not something to ignore. What's interesting is they didn't just say they'd issue a licence, they built an entire dedicated regulatory regime for prediction markets. Still early days, but exciting to see. 2. ESMA's recent statement on event contracts, and why calling something a "prediction market" doesn't change how MiFID II sees it if the mechanics look like a binary option. 3. The EC's review of MiCA, and the question of whether prediction markets get pulled into its scope. 4. The split between financial instruments law, harmonised EU-wide, and gambling law, decided country by country. Two very different starting points. 5. The "offshore licence" myth. Link to the full episode is in the comments. #MiCA #MiFID #ESMA #OffshoreLicensing #PredictionMarkets

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s DMO has issued an advisory reminding DCMs (again) regarding the proper use of broad template certifications for event contracts. DMO expressed concern that the improper use of broad template certifications hampers its ability to determine whether a DCM has met its regulatory obligations. When used properly, the submission method is valuable because it streamlines the self-certification process for the CFTC and DCMs. Going forward, we will see whether any contracts are stayed because of the improper use of broad template certifications.

8 House Democrats sent a letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission urging the SEC to issue formal guidance regarding event contracts that reference securities and related financial metrics. The letter recognizes the value of event contracts while also expressing concerns about market manipulation and insider trading. One sentence from the letter that some may find surprising: "We appreciate the SEC’s efforts to provide clarity on the regulatory treatment of innovative, new financial products."

If you did not watch the House Subcommittee hearing, here are the four key points Chairman Johnson (R-SD) used to summarize the hearing: 1. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has important work before it. The CFTC is used to doing more with less, yet resource adequacy is a legitimate question that the Committee should continue to explore. 2. Everyone at the hearing agreed about the importance of market integrity and customer protection. 3. The Committee needs to continue exploring whether there are sufficient tools to ensure market integrity and customer protection. 4. Courts are acting in this space. The CFTC is acting in this space. The Committee and Congress should not be silent. (Lightly edited for length and clarity) Carl Kennedy, Rob Schwartz, and Asaf Meir provided thoughtful testimony on prediction markets, highlighting the market integrity safeguards and customer protections built into the current regulatory framework. Link to the hearing in the comments.

Tomorrow, the House Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development will hold a hearing titled “Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets.” The following witnesses will testify: Rob Schwartz, Partner, Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP David Z. Bean, Chairman, Indian Gaming Association Chris Cylke, Senior Vice President, Government Relations, American Gaming Association Carl Kennedy, Co-Chair, Financial Markets and Regulation Practice, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP Asaf Meir, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Solidus Labs Note: Carl Kennedy appeared on Prediction Markets Report in Episode 11 and discussed these topics. The link to the episode is in the comments.

🎙️ New Episode Alert 🎙️ In this episode, Matt (Meir) Vegh speaks with Marina D'Angelo, Head of Europe at DLT Law. Marina breaks down the European prediction market landscape, including: • Gibraltar's new prediction market regulatory regime • MiFID II and ESMA's recent statement • MiCA's potential role in regulating prediction markets • Country-specific gambling regulations • Myths surrounding "offshore licenses" 🎧 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/ddEdSSKC

🚨 The first wave of PREDICT 2026 agenda topics is here. We're kicking things off at the New York Marriott Marquis on October 6-7, and the sessions are shaping up to cover the full scope of where prediction markets are heading: 🗳️ Midterms on the Market: How Prediction Markets Are Forecasting the 2026 Elections 📈 Why Wall Street is Paying Attention: Understanding the Massive Opportunity 🎰 The Great Convergence: Sportsbooks, Exchanges & Prediction Markets Check out the full agenda: https://lnkd.in/e8vEQEE3

🚨 Breaking News: CFTC has taken extraordinary action.🚨 The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has stayed a Kalshi emergency rule change and exercised its authority to order the fulfillment of pending trades. Kalshi's emergency rule change was in response to a Michigan state court order to cancel certain previously executed trades. The CFTC is serious about defending its jurisdiction.

Kalshi announced Kalshi Pro. One statement in the announcement stood out: Kalshi described the desktop trading platform as the latest step in its “transformation from a retail app for prediction market trading into a full-service financial exchange for all types of investors.” To date, Kalshi has attracted primarily retail participants. But its broader success depends on expanding its user base and achieving meaningful institutional adoption. Kalshi Pro is an important step toward that vision.