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Brent is nearing a three-month low, but the bigger question is how quickly Hormuz can return to normal. Markets are pricing in supply before the ships are moving. #MoneywebNews https://ow.ly/ibTf50ZcAUX

Hormuz Shuts Again Just when oil markets caught their breath and market looked a bit stable last week, Iran shut the tap again. Last week felt like relief. The US and Iran signed an MoU, Brent crude dropped to $79, and tankers started lining up to finally move through the Strait of Hormuz after months of chaos. Then Saturday happened. Iran's military declared the strait closed once more, pointing to Israel's continued presence in Lebanon as the trigger. Vance is now headed to Switzerland for fresh talks. Here's why this matters way beyond oil traders. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG moves through that 21-mile channel. Every time it gets "closed," even just for a period, shipping insurers reprice risk within hours, freight costs jump, and that flows straight into the cost of everything from petrochemicals to packaging to power. For Indian companies, the transmission is fast: crude spikes, the rupee comes under pressure, import bills swell, and treasury teams scramble to check if their hedges actually cover this scenario or just looked good on paper during calmer months. The bigger lesson for anyone in finance right now: stop building forecasts on the assumption that geopolitical risk premiums are temporary. We've seen this on-again-off-again pattern multiple times this year alone. Scenario planning isn't a once-a-year exercise anymore — it's a live input into how you run treasury. Watching the Switzerland talks closely. Markets are too. #Markets #OilPrices #Businessrisk #RiskManagement #FinanceLeadership #GeopoliticsAndMarkets #Stockmarket

Even with the Strait of Hormuz effectively constrained, oil is still finding a way out. Ron Bousso examines how an accelerating stream of shipments is resuming under the radar, as traders adopt increasingly opaque tactics to move crude. The result is some relief for trapped supply, but also a more fragmented, harder-to-read energy market. This is less a return to normalcy than a preview of what comes next. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dv8a8RPg

Strait of Hormuz 100-Day Blockade Analysis The world's most critical oil chokepoint has experienced a 95% reduction in crude shipments for over 100 days, yet Brent crude has dropped to $87.55 per barrel due to temporary market buffers: The Price Buffer: China is suppressing global demand by drawing down its 1.3-billion-barrel inventory by 1 million barrels daily. Meanwhile, the US, Canada, and Brazil have surged production to fill the immediate void. The "Dark Trade": Clandestine shipping (vessels turning off transponders under naval escort) is leaking some oil out. President Trump claimed a secret mission moved 100 million barrels, though analysts note this equals just five days of normal pre-conflict traffic. The Looming Deadlines: Supply buffers are hitting operationally critical lows. By late 2026, the US must pivot to prioritizing domestic winter heating, ending its role as a global swing producer. Recovery and Glut Risks: Damaged infrastructure means full transit won't fully recover until 2027. However, if the strait reopens suddenly while alternative supply chains are active, a massive oil glut could crash prices to $50 per barrel. #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #SupplyChainDisruption #Geopolitics #OPEC #CommodityTrading https://lnkd.in/eZivQeWQ

The current oil tanker market remains under the shadow of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. May marked a shift from peak panic to cautious adjustment, but damage remains deep. Oil demand weakened as high prices, softer industrial activity and restricted crude access cut refinery runs, with China relying on stocks and India losing diesel momentum. Supply was hit, less by capacity and more by logistics, as tanker restrictions, insurance issues and port limits kept barrels away from buyers. Inventories became the market’s shock absorber, but that cushion is thinning. Global stocks fell, US inventories moved closer to historic lows, and import-dependent Asian buyers remained exposed, while Gulf producers held unwanted barrels because exports were constrained. Tanker trade turned defensive, with Asian refiners seeking US, West African and Latin American barrels instead of relying on Gulf supply. Freight markets corrected from March-April highs as cargo resumed and vessel availability improved. The outlook remains fragile, the peace deal could reopen Hormuz gradually, but volatility will persist until terms are confirmed. Click on the link below to learn more about the report: https://lnkd.in/dXZK67rE #OilMarkets #TankerMarket #StraitOfHormuz #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #OilTrading #ShippingIndustry #MaritimeTrade #TankerShipping #FreightMarkets #GlobalTrade #EnergySecurity #SupplyChain #RefiningIndustry #OilAndGas #CommodityMarkets #MarketAnalysis #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics #ShippingEconomics #RLA #WadeMaritime #TrimSail 

🛢️📉 Oil just had one of its sharpest drops in months — and the reason is geopolitical, not fundamental. Following the US-Iran initial agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, crude markets moved decisively: 🔹 Brent crude fell 4.1% to $83 🔹 WTI fell 4.7% to $80 🔹 Both contracts had already shed more than 3% on Friday The market is unwinding the geopolitical risk premium that was baked in during the conflict. Fast. The draft agreement outlines: ✅ Reopening of the Strait within 30 days ✅ End of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports ✅ Resumption of commercial traffic without tolls ✅ A broader 60-day negotiation period to follow But here's where it gets nuanced. 👇 The financial market has moved. The physical market hasn't — not yet. 🔸 Damaged infrastructure still requires repairs 🔸 Producers must restart and ramp up output 🔸 Tanker operators need confidence before returning 🔸 Insurance and freight costs are likely to remain elevated Analysts suggest Hormuz flows may only need to recover to 60–70% of prewar levels for the market to revert toward its prior oversupply outlook. That's a lower bar than most assume. The headline is peace. ☮️ The real trade is how quickly the barrels return. 🚢 For energy traders, macro investors, and supply chain strategists — the next 30 to 60 days will be far more telling than today's price action. What's your outlook on crude from here? 👇 #OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Brent #WTI #HormuzStrait #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets #Iran #USIran #MacroEconomics #Commodities #GlobalTrade #EnergyTransition #OilAndGas

One-fifth of the world's oil trade was blocked overnight. Here is what the Strait of Hormuz reopening actually means for energy markets. The strait closed to commercial traffic in late February 2026 following the outbreak of conflict. When it reopened in June 2026, markets reacted instantly, with Brent crude falling nearly 8% in a single week to around $80 per barrel. But the price move is only part of the story. The scale of the backlog is staggering. Around 93 million barrels of non-Iranian crude were stranded inside the Gulf, with about 54 supertankers waiting to exit and roughly 87 million barrels aboard those vessels alone. That volume is roughly equivalent to a full month of total U.S. crude imports. But this supply will not hit markets all at once. Port scheduling, tanker inspections, mine clearance, insurance disputes, and shipowner caution all slow the release. Full normalisation is expected to take 2 to 4 months at minimum. Three scenarios are now in play. Rapid clearance could push Brent toward the mid-$70s, gradual reopening could keep prices range-bound with a residual risk premium, and diplomatic collapse could reverse all recent price declines sharply. The risk asymmetry here is notable. The bullish price scenario requires multiple things to go right simultaneously, while the bearish scenario requires only one adverse event. Asian importers like China, India, Japan, and South Korea stand to benefit most as Gulf supply normalises. European LNG spot prices may soften as Qatar resumes full export schedules. The 2026 closure has exposed something energy markets can no longer treat as theoretical: a two-mile-wide channel remains the structural backbone of global energy supply. Want to know more? Read the full breakdown of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and what it means for crude prices, tanker markets, and LNG flows here: https://lnkd.in/g-RTwt3B

“…the scale of the supply shortfall is now well-known to markets…the timeline on which temporary buffers run out and how this interacts with prices is of critical importance. This interaction means non-linear outcomes in prices…sharp price spikes…are possible the longer the conflict continues… The potential for non-linear outcomes grows the longer oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely encumbered.” Please read the article for details.

📢 Three months since the Strait of Hormuz closed. Here's what US crude exports look like now.   📈 Loadings surged from 4.79 mbpd in February to 6.78 mbpd in May - a 42% lift, +2.0 mbpd step-change in three months.   🚢 VLCC near-doubled: 1.47 → 2.77 mbpd, now carrying 41% of all US crude loadings - long-haul, pointing east. 🔹 Aframax hit a fresh peak at 2.79 mbpd. 🔹 Suezmax lost ground throughout.   🛢️ Crude-in-transit up 88% - from ~120M to 225M barrels - breaking above the entire 2021–2025 historical envelope. Loadings +42%, transit +88%. The gap is voyage distance: implied average length is now roughly a third longer.   ⚠️ The driving season is the next test. Sustaining May's export rate through peak summer refinery runs implies gross crude imports rising to ~10 mbpd. June-July will reveal which margin gives first.   📊 You can find the full vessel class breakdown and data at https://lnkd.in/dGnHqbjc

There is likely to be continuing confusion amid intermittent closures and disruption through Hormuz. Ultimately, this is friction. Friction leads to price increases, yet intermediate termed futures are only 5% above where they were a year ago. https://lnkd.in/eQcbWesW