Volatility Pulse - Perspective Matters
The Luckiest Generation Yet
Someone born in the 1980s has spent about 7% of their first 40 years in a recession. Someone born in 1900 spent 43%. Each generation has lived through dramatically less economic pain.
Recessions Got Scarce
The last 10 years have seen just one recession, lasting about two months. A generation ago, a typical 10-year stretch had three or four. Downturns have quietly become rare events.
$47 Billion of Leverage, Gone
Assets in leveraged tech ETFs fell from about $122 billion to $75 billion -- roughly $47 billion of borrowed-money exposure unwound, a big chunk of it in the semiconductor funds alone.
Crypto Enthusiasm Ran Dry
Crypto price sentiment just hit a four-year low -- the least excitement across the space since 2022, even with prices nowhere near those lows.
Google's $45 Billion Quarter
Alphabet's quarterly capex went from about $6.8 billion in mid-2022 to $44.9 billion -- a sixfold jump in four years, with no sign of the spending slowing.
AI Wants 194 Gigawatts
Data-center power demand is projected to reach 194 gigawatts by 2035, up from almost nothing in 2010. The AI build-out is turning into one of the largest power stories in decades.
Private Equity Pays the Premium
US private-equity buyouts are going through at about 17x EV/EBITDA while public microcaps trade near 10x. The 'cheap' private deals now cost more than the small stocks anyone can buy.
Buybacks: Made in Britain
The UK -- not the US -- is the buyback capital of the world, with the highest buyback yield of any major market at roughly 5.8%. The market everyone calls cheap and unloved is quietly returning the most cash.
Same Debt, Different Story
Japan and the UK carry similar debt loads but sit at opposite ends of the bond market -- one pinning yields down, the other letting them run. Two playbooks for the same problem.
Lobbying for the Moat
One leading AI lab doubled its political spending to $40 million for the midterms. As the models commoditize, some of the fiercest competition may be moving from the code to the capitol.
The Shopper Won't Quit
Same-store retail sales are still running up about 7.8% year over year even as broader growth cools. The American consumer keeps spending well above what a slowing economy would suggest.
Just Because
Earth's oceans look endless from space, but they're a rounding error: less than 0.1% of the planet's volume. Gather every drop of ocean, lake and river into a single ball and it would be a small sphere next to the Earth -- a marble beside a basketball.