Volatility Pulse - When winners wobble
The Scary Selloff That Wasn't
Semiconductors just had their worst two-week stretch of the year, down about 25%. Zoom out and it barely dents a rally that ran for months. Perspective is the whole game.
Most Stocks are above their 200 day moving avg
70% of S&P 500 stocks sit above their 200-day average -- the best breadth since 2024. The headline mega-caps are bleeding, but the average stock is quietly holding its ground.
Momentum Broke, Index Didn't
High-beta momentum stocks dropped 20% while the S&P 500 kept climbing to new highs. It's the crowded winners unwinding beneath a calm surface -- the same leveraged, self-reinforcing machinery that makes 2x and 3x ETFs whip hard in both directions.
The Boring Portfolio Wins
The Permanent Portfolio -- equal parts stocks, bonds, gold and cash -- is up 16% this year, its best return in three decades. The strategy built to never excite is having its loudest year ever.
The 50 Days That Decide It All
One dollar in the S&P since 1990 grew to $40. Miss the 25 best days and you're left with $8; miss the 25 worst and you'd have $236. The catch: nobody can tell the two apart in advance.
Apple's Quietest Record
Apple tagged a fresh all-time high and almost nobody noticed. The most valuable company on earth set a record to a collective shrug.
The World Can't Stop Buying
Foreign investors bought a record $903.8 billion of US stocks over the past year. Everyone piling in at once has, historically, been the moment to at least check your seatbelt.
Second-Priciest in 160 Years
US stocks sit at their second-most-expensive valuation since the 1800s.
$960,000 Jacket, No Shares
Jensen Huang's signature black leather jacket sold at charity auction for $960,000. That buys you the exact look of a trillion-dollar CEO and precisely zero of the stock.
America Won't Stop Starting Up
Americans are filing to launch new businesses at a record pace. Whatever the mood on the tape, the garage-startup engine is redlining.
Worst July Start in 15 Years
The S&P is negative through July options expiration for the first time in 15 years. In 5 of the 6 closest historical matches, it finished the year green anyway.
Just Because
The Guugu Ymithirr people of Australia have no words for 'left' or 'right' -- they navigate purely by compass directions, even indoors. 'Pass the salt' becomes 'move it slightly to the northwest.' The result: they're dramatically better at orientation than the rest of us who think in 'lefts' and 'rights.'