Circle Shares Rise 7% as Arc Mainnet Launch and Regulatory Wins Near

Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) rallied more than 7% in New York trading on Monday ET, as investors priced in a mix of regulatory wins and a looming blockchain infrastructure rollout that could broaden the company’s revenue base beyond stablecoin reserve income.

Shares closed at $66.67 on the New York Stock Exchange after touching an intraday high of $68.40, extending gains after Bernstein reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating and reaffirmed a $140 price target. The move came as Circle highlighted progress on multiple fronts, including new banking-related approvals, an expansion of its payments network, and plans to launch its Arc public mainnet on Sept. 16.

In its note, Bernstein argued that the market is still largely valuing Circle as a pure-play stablecoin issuer—tethered to interest income on reserves—while underappreciating what it framed as the company’s longer-term monetization potential through payments and infrastructure. The firm pointed to three main drivers: Circle’s national trust bank approval, the scaling of the Circle Payments Network, and Arc’s mainnet debut.

Circle’s latest quarterly results offered a mixed picture financially but underscored accelerating network activity. The company reported second-quarter revenue of about $701 million, up 7% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.18, below consensus expectations of $0.26, a shortfall that some analysts attributed to the still-evolving economics of stablecoin distribution and competitive pricing pressure.

Operational metrics, however, were notably stronger. Circle said USDC’s circulating supply rose 19% year-over-year to $73.3 billion, while onchain transaction volume jumped 151% to $14.8 trillion. Market participants see the combination—rising supply alongside surging throughput—as a signal of widening institutional and enterprise usage, with USDC increasingly used for settlement, treasury movement, and cross-border flows rather than simply as a trading collateral instrument.

Regulatory developments have also become a centerpiece of the bull thesis. Circle recently secured approvals tied to trust banking, including authorization from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and a New York State trust charter, strengthening its compliance posture in a market where regulatory clarity is often treated as a prerequisite for deeper institutional adoption. Legal and regulatory analysts commonly view trust bank status as a credibility lever, potentially enabling closer integration with traditional financial institutions and providing a clearer pathway for new product lines under tighter supervisory oversight.

At the same time, Circle is attempting to reposition itself as an infrastructure provider. The company’s Arc blockchain initiative has drawn attention after Circle named BlackRock ($BLK) and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) as early validators for the network. Arc’s public mainnet is scheduled to go live on Sept. 16, with Circle describing the project as an ‘institutional-grade’ chain designed to support regulated financial workflows and interoperability with existing market plumbing.

Circle has also indicated it is pursuing patent-related collaboration with IBM ($IBM), though details have not been disclosed. Investors have linked the relationship to potential upgrades in blockchain infrastructure, security, or enterprise integrations—areas that could complement Circle’s ambition to scale transaction-driven revenue streams.

The Circle Payments Network, meanwhile, is being positioned as a global settlement layer for businesses using USDC, targeting B2B transfers and cross-border payments. If adoption increases, the network could help diversify Circle’s business model through fees and infrastructure services—an outcome aligned with Bernstein’s view that ‘long-term earnings power’ may not be fully reflected in current valuations.

Despite Monday’s rally, $CRCL remains well below its 52-week high of $189.92, and above its 52-week low of $49.90, highlighting continued volatility. Trading volume rose to roughly 12 million shares, above average levels, suggesting renewed investor engagement ahead of Arc’s launch and further updates on Circle’s regulatory and product roadmap.

Circle operates in an increasingly competitive stablecoin market, where Tether’s USDT remains the dominant asset by circulating supply. Circle’s strategy has leaned on ‘regulatory compliance’ and transparency to court institutions, but sustaining share gains may depend on whether Arc and the payments network can translate headline growth in supply and onchain volume into durable, higher-margin revenue. The coming months—particularly around the Sept. 16 mainnet release—are likely to test whether Circle’s infrastructure push can shift market perceptions from stablecoin issuer to broader financial rails provider.