Bird Conservation Region 23

Future climate has the potential to affect species across the globe. Global projections for over 900 bird species call for greater than half their ranges to be reduced by the end of the century, with temperate regions impacted almost equally by changes in land-use and climate (Jetz et al.

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995-1998 and 2006-2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006-2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria <5) blue-winged warbler models accounted for 67% of the variability and suggested positive associations with forest edge and proportion of forest at the 8,000-ha scale, and negative associations with forest patch area (800 ha) and wetness (800 ha and 80,000 ha). The regional model performed best for blue-winged warbler predicted abundances from point counts conducted in Iowa during 1995-1996 (r s ¼ 0.57; P ¼ 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined (r s ¼ 0.58, P 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data (r s ¼ 0.03, P ¼ 0.92 for Iowa and r s ¼ 0.13, P ¼ 0.51 for all areas, 2006-2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by land managers, but we caution that the utility of such models may decrease over time for species preferring relatively ephemeral habitats if model inputs are not updated accordingly.

The Driftless Area Initiative unites organizations and individuals within the Driftless Area of the Upper Mississippi River Basin for collaborative action to enhance and restore this region's ecology, economy, and cultural resources in a balanced, integrated fashion.

The cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a small Neotropical migrant songbird that is currently experiencing population declines. We monitored the number of cerulean warblers, as well as size and spatial attributes of territories, before two methods of silvicultural treatments took place in six of nine study units involved in the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment within the Morgan-Monroe and Yellowwood State Forests in southern Indiana. Data were collected during the 2007 and 2008 breeding seasons. Relative abundance was apparently greater in 2008, but this increase was not consistent at each individual site. Territory sizes also increased from 2007 to 2008 and this trend was consistent across most study sites. Territories were spatially clustered in both years. These findings are similar to other research involving cerulean warblers in southern Indiana. There were no significant differences in the number of cerulean warbler detections or the size of territories among the three study groups (control, even-aged, and uneven-aged) for the two combined pre-treatment years. Future studies will examine how cerulean warblers respond to silvicultural prescriptions.

Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) have experienced one of the highest population declines of any neotropical-Nearctic migratory species in North America. We performed point counts and habitat assessments in areas used and unused by Cerulean Warblers in northern Alabama during the 2005 and 2006 breeding seasons to examine their avian associations and identify microhabitat features that best explained their occurrence. We detected on average ,50 Cerulean Warbler males (total) in three disjunct populations during each breeding season. Areas used by Cerulean Warblers were characterized by avian communities with significantly higher species richness, diversity, and abundance compared to areas where they were not detected. Correspondence analysis related Cerulean Warblers to inhabitants of riparian, bottomland deciduous forests (e.g., Kentucky Warbler [Oporornis formosus], Acadian Flycatcher [Empidonax virescens], and Northern Parula [Parula americana]) and two edge specialists (Blue-winged Warbler [Vermivora cyanoptera] and Indigo Bunting [Passerina cyanea]) suggesting Cerulean Warblers in our study areas may be tolerant of some habitat disturbance within an otherwise largely forested landscape. Information theoretic criteria and canonical correspondence analysis indicated Cerulean Warblers preferred bottomland forests containing tall (. 29 m), large diameter, well-spaced (. 27 m 2 /ha) deciduous trees with greater canopy cover ($ 90%), closer (, 20 m) canopy gaps, fewer snags (# 25/ha), and a moderately complex canopy structure.

The cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a small Neotropical migrant songbird that is currently experiencing population declines. We monitored the number of cerulean warblers, as well as size and spatial attributes of territories, before two methods of silvicultural treatments took place in six of nine study units involved in the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment within the Morgan-Monroe and Yellowwood State Forests in southern Indiana. Data were collected during the 2007 and 2008 breeding seasons. Relative abundance was apparently greater in 2008, but this increase was not consistent at each individual site. Territory sizes also increased from 2007 to 2008 and this trend was consistent across most study sites. Territories were spatially clustered in both years. These findings are similar to other research involving cerulean warblers in southern Indiana. There were no significant differences in the number of cerulean warbler detections or the size of territories among the three study...

Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) have experienced one of the highest population declines of any neotropical-Nearctic migratory species in North America. We performed point counts and habitat assessments in areas used and unused by Cerulean Warblers in northern Alabama during the 2005 and 2006 breeding seasons to examine their avian associations and identify microhabitat features that best explained their occurrence. We detected on average ,50 Cerulean Warbler males (total) in three disjunct populations during each breeding season. Areas used by Cerulean Warblers were characterized by avian communities with significantly higher species richness, diversity, and abundance compared to areas where they were not detected. Correspondence analysis related Cerulean Warblers to inhabitants of riparian, bottomland deciduous forests (e.g., Kentucky Warbler [Oporornis formosus], Acadian Flycatcher [Empidonax virescens], and Northern Parula [Parula americana]) and two edge specialists (Blue-winged Warbler [Vermivora cyanoptera] and Indigo Bunting [Passerina cyanea]) suggesting Cerulean Warblers in our study areas may be tolerant of some habitat disturbance within an otherwise largely forested landscape. Information theoretic criteria and canonical correspondence analysis indicated Cerulean Warblers preferred bottomland forests containing tall (. 29 m), large diameter, well-spaced (. 27 m 2 /ha) deciduous trees with greater canopy cover ($ 90%), closer (, 20 m) canopy gaps, fewer snags (# 25/ha), and a moderately complex canopy structure.

Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) have experienced one of the highest population declines of any neotropical-Nearctic migratory species in North America. We performed point counts and habitat assessments in areas used and unused by Cerulean Warblers in northern ...

We examined support for the hypothesis that abundance of Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea) increases with percentage of bottomland and upland forest, and decreases with percentage of developed land at a localhabitat scale (within a 250-m buffer) and increases with percentage of all forest at a landscape scale (within a 10-km buffer). We conducted surveys along 16 rivers in Missouri and Arkansas from 1999 to 2006 and related habitat and landscape factors to counts of Cerulean Warblers in 123 5-km segments on these rivers. We detected 576 singing male Cerulean Warblers and found support for both local and landscape effects on Cerulean Warbler abundance. Model fit was good with an average correlation of 0.841 between predicted and observed values based on an eight-fold cross-validation procedure. The abundance of Cerulean Warblers increased 390.7, 8.7, and 4.1 times across the observed range of forest within 10 km, bottomland forest within 250 m, and upland forest within 250 m, respectively. Conservation and research need to address large-scale forest patterns in addition to local habitat for Cerulean Warblers. Further research is needed on abundance patterns across riparian and upland forests and demographic rates in this part of their range.

Applying conservation in an effi cient manner is desirable in a constrained economic cli-mate. Mapped predictions of species abundance may allow the spatial targeting of focal areas for conservation, increasing the effi ciency of conservation application. We overlayed mapped patterns in predicted relative abundance, from hierarchical spatial count models for 11 species of conservation concern, against digital data layers describing federal-, tribal-, and state-managed lands to identify the relative contribution of governmental agencies in the conservation of rare bird habitat in the Prairie Hardwood Transition (Bird Conservation Region 23). The proportion of predicted popula-tions under direct governmental jurisdiction differed by habitat guild, with 0.5%, 1.3%, and 1.0% of grassland birds occurring on federal-, state-, and tribal-managed lands, respectively, and 2.8%, 17.9%, and 3.1% of forest birds occurring on federal-, state-, and tribal-managed lands, respectively. Irrespective...

Conservation design entails 1) characterization and assessment of a landscape's capacity to support wildlife, 2) predictive modeling and mapping of species population response to this landscape, 3) assessment of conservation opportunities given those predicted patterns in occurrence and abundance, 4) strategic enhancement of landscapes to achieve conservation goals, and then 5) subsequent monitoring and evaluation to ensure that the conservation actions that follow from this process truly lead to gains for wildlife and wildlands. Conservation design should recognize the dynamical nature of populations and the landscapes they inhabit. It should also balance needs of individual priority species against those of species aggregates. Ideally, aspects of this process should generate recommendations for management which recognize future trends in landscape conditions. Each of these endeavors is infl uenced by issues associated with scale: temporal, spatial, and thematic. The future of conservation design will likely include shifts from static, pattern-based models of specieshabitat response to dynamical projections of process-based models, with commensurate recognition of the uncertainty that accompanies those projections.

The cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a small Neotropical migrant songbird that is currently experiencing population declines. We monitored the number of cerulean warblers, as well as size and spatial attributes of territories, before two methods of silvicultural treatments took place in six of nine study units involved in the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment within the Morgan-Monroe and Yellowwood State Forests in southern Indiana. Data were collected during the 2007 and 2008 breeding seasons. Relative abundance was apparently greater in 2008, but this increase was not consistent at each individual site. Territory sizes also increased from 2007 to 2008 and this trend was consistent across most study sites. Territories were spatially clustered in both years. These findings are similar to other research involving cerulean warblers in southern Indiana. There were no significant differences in the number of cerulean warbler detections or the size of territories among the three study groups (control, even-aged, and uneven-aged) for the two combined pre-treatment years. Future studies will examine how cerulean warblers respond to silvicultural prescriptions. 1 Professor (KI) and former Graduate Students (MMM,

In the Midwestern United States, the General Land Office (GLO) survey records provide the only reasonably accurate data source of forest composition and tree species distribution at the time of pre-European settlement (circa late 1800 to early 1850). However, GIS and statistic inference methods to map GLO data and reconstruct historical vegetation are needed. In this study, we applied a

The cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea) is a Neotropic-Nearctic migratory passerine that breeds in eastern North America and winters in northwestern South America (Dunn and Garrett 1997, Hamel 2000a, 2000b). The northern two-thirds of Alabama historically represented ...

Bird populations are influenced by many environmental factors at both large and small scales. Our study evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on the Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Black Tern (Childonias niger), and Marsh Wren (Cistothorus palustris) in the prairie potholes of the upper Midwest of the United States. These species were chosen because their diverse habitat preference represent the spectrum of habitat conditions present in the Prairie Potholes, ranging from open prairies to dense cattail marshes. We evaluated land-use covariates at three logarithmic spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations and climatic influences. The strongest influences on the abundance of each of the three species were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales and precipitation in the year preceding that when bird surveys were conducted. Even among scales ranging over three orders of magnitude the influence of spatial scale was small, as models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. Examination of the effects of large-scale environmental variables on wetland birds elucidated relationships overlooked in many smaller-scale studies, such as the influences of climate and habitat variables at landscape scales. Given the spatial variation in the abundance of our focal species within the prairie potholes, our model predictions are especially useful for targeting locations, such as northeastern South Dakota and central North Dakota, where management and conservation efforts would be optimally beneficial. This modeling approach can also be applied to other species and geographic areas to focus landscape conservation efforts and subsequent small-scale studies, especially in constrained economic climates.

The tendency of animals that live at higher latitudes to have larger bodies than those living at lower latitudes is a widely documented but poorly understood pattern in ecogeography. This pattern is named Bergmann&#x27;s rule in honour of Carl Bergmann, one of the first to ...

Modeling the spatial distribution of animals can be complicated by spatial and temporal effects (i.e. spatial autocorrelation and trends in abundance over time) and other factors such as imperfect detection probabilities and observation-related nuisance variables. Recent advances in modeling have demonstrated various approaches that handle most of these factors but which require a degree of sampling effort (e.g. replication) not available to many field studies. We present a two-step approach that addresses these challenges to spatially model species abundance. Habitat, spatial and temporal variables were handled with a Bayesian approach which facilitated modeling hierarchically structured data. Predicted abundance was subsequently adjusted to account for imperfect detection and the area effectively sampled for each species. We provide examples of our modeling approach for two endemic Hawaiian nectarivorous honeycreepers: 'i'iwi Vestiaria coccinea and 'apapane Himatione sanguinea.

Modeling the spatial distribution of animals can be complicated by spatial and temporal effects (i.e. spatial autocorrelation and trends in abundance over time) and other factors such as imperfect detection probabilities and observation-related nuisance variables. Recent advances in modeling have demonstrated various approaches that handle most of these factors but which require a degree of sampling effort (e.g. replication) not available to many field studies. We present a two-step approach that addresses these challenges to spatially model species abundance. Habitat, spatial and temporal variables were handled with a Bayesian approach which facilitated modeling hierarchically structured data. Predicted abundance was subsequently adjusted to account for imperfect detection and the area effectively sampled for each species. We provide examples of our modeling approach for two endemic Hawaiian nectarivorous honeycreepers: 'i'iwi Vestiaria coccinea and 'apapane Himatione sanguinea.

In the Midwestern United States, the General Land Office (GLO) survey records provide the only reasonably accurate data source of forest composition and tree species distribution at the time of pre-European settlement (circa late 1800 to early 1850). However, GIS and statistic inference methods to map GLO data and reconstruct historical vegetation are needed. In this study, we applied a

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31-80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although finescale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.

we tested statistical models developed to predict abundances of grassland birds in the prairie hardwood transition bird conservation region of the upper midwestern united states. roadside surveys were used to estimate relative abundances of grassland birds in 800 ha areas in the iowa, minnesota, and wisconsin portions of the region in 2003-2005. we then compared observed abundances with predicted abundances from spatial hierarchical models for seven species. spearman's rho statistic for rank correlations suggested that observed abundances were positively correlated with predicted abundances for all species (r s = 0.21-0.60) except the henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii; r s = 0.01). observed abundances also were positively correlated with percent grassland in an area, and rank correlation values were similar to those obtained from the predictive models. model accuracy was positively related to species' abundance and niche breadth. our accuracy assessment suggested that the spatial hierarchical models would have limited use in guiding management at a regional scale; a measure of habitat quantity performed equally as well as the models at predicting observed abundances. future efforts to model grassland bird abundances would be improved by more accurate information on the distribution of grasslands in the region, more detailed information on grassland composition and structure, and a better understanding of the biological significance of environmental variables for grassland bird populations. evaluación de la exactitud de los modelos que predicen la Abundancia de Aves de pastizales en la región de conservación de Aves de transición pradera-bosque

Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts,

In the Midwestern United States, the General Land Office (GLO) survey records provide the only reasonably accurate data source of forest composition and tree species distribution at the time of pre-European settlement (circa late 1800 to early 1850). However, GIS and statistic inference methods to map GLO data and reconstruct historical vegetation are needed. In this study, we applied a

Bird populations are influenced by many environmental factors at both large and small scales. Our study evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on the Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Black Tern (Childonias niger), and Marsh Wren (Cistothorus palustris) in the prairie potholes of the upper Midwest of the United States. These species were chosen because their diverse habitat preference represent the spectrum of habitat conditions present in the Prairie Potholes, ranging from open prairies to dense cattail marshes. We evaluated land-use covariates at three logarithmic spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations and climatic influences. The strongest influences on the abundance of each of the three species were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales and precipitation in the year preceding that when bird surveys were conducted. Even among scales ranging over three orders of magnitude the influence of spatial scale was small, as models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. Examination of the effects of large-scale environmental variables on wetland birds elucidated relationships overlooked in many smaller-scale studies, such as the influences of climate and habitat variables at landscape scales. Given the spatial variation in the abundance of our focal species within the prairie potholes, our model predictions are especially useful for targeting locations, such as northeastern South Dakota and central North Dakota, where management and conservation efforts would be optimally beneficial. This modeling approach can also be applied to other species and geographic areas to focus landscape conservation efforts and subsequent small-scale studies, especially in constrained economic climates.

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995–1998 and 2006–2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006–2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria <5) blue-winged warbler models accounted for 67% of the variability and suggested positive associations with forest edge and proportion of forest at the 8,000-ha scale, and negative associations with forest patch area (800 ha) and wetness (800 ha and 80,000 ha). The regional model performed best for blue-winged warbler predicted abundances from point counts conducted in Iowa during 1995–1996 (rs = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined (rs = 0.58, P <
0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data (rs = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and rs = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006–2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by land managers, but we caution that the utility of such models may decrease over time for species preferring relatively ephemeral habitats if model inputs are not updated accordingly.

TITLE: Spatio-temporal dynamics of Northern Bobwhite (COLINUS VIRGINIANUS) in Illinois MAJOR PROFESSOR: Alan Woolf Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) are declining in abundance throughout their distribution. This decline is traditionally tied to degradation and loss of habitat. In Illinois, the bobwhite population has been rather stationary after a severe decline in the 1970s despite continued loss of habitat important to this species. Thus, objectives of my dissertation were to 1) estimate historical temporal and spatial patterns in bobwhite population dynamics and determine their contribution to current dynamics; 2) estimate bobwhite population distribution and abundance; 3) determine the spatial structure of current populations; and, 4) determine environmental and historical factors at multiple spatial scales contributing to the distribution, abundance, and persistence of bobwhite. I used multiple logistic and spatial linear regression to relate climatological and landscape variables to bobwhite presence and abundance in Illinois, respectively. The models were parameterized with counts from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and validated with data from annual Christmas Bird Counts and Illinois Department of Natural Resources surveys of bobwhite. The spatial linear model accounted for small scale iv spatial autocorrelation between nearby survey sites. I found that residual effects of historical winter weather influenced extant bobwhite distribution, resulting in a fairly contiguous distribution of suitable landscape-level habitat throughout the western and south-central portion of Illinois. Landscape variables positively associated with the likelihood of bobwhite presence included amount of small grain agriculture and forested land within a 5,000 ha landscape; Shannon's Evenness Index and the mean number of days in winter with >2.5 cm of snow were negatively associated with presence. At a habitat suitability index value of 0.5, the mean model predicted 71,294 km 2 (48.9% of the state) of potentially suitable habitat for bobwhite. Within these suitable landscapes, shape of small grain agriculture fields, proportion of the landscape in sedimentary soils, variation in row crop field size, and various aspects of wood patches influenced bobwhite abundance. Variables most important to bobwhite occurred at the 5,000 ha scale. Other major findings included identification of a strong association between bobwhite and the El Niño Southern, Arctic, and Pacific Decadal Oscillations (R 2 's $ 0.73), the importance of gross habitat area over number of suitable neighbors in determining metapopulation persistence, and 175 landscape patches deemed depauperate and suitable for translocation of birds from occupied habitat. Also, human habitation was found to be directly related to increased probability of population extirpation, and that increasing urbanization in Illinois will continue to degrade and remove suitable habitat. My results suggest if a focus in wildlife management in Illinois is directed at bobwhite, then there will need to be, in addition to appropriate field-or site-level features, a focus on surrounding landscapes. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Financial support for this dissertation was provided by Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration Project W-106-R, Graduate School, and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources. I am honored to have received both the Illinois Federation of Outdoor Resource Users Scholarship and the Hilda A. Stein Scholarship for the Study of Ornithology. I thank the Department of Zoology for employment in my final semester as a teaching assistant. Finally, I derived some additional monetary support from DCI Biologicals and Federal Direct Stafford loans. I would like to acknowledge members of my committee, David Gibson, Karen Lips, Matthew Nicholson, Alan Woolf, and John Roseberry for their oversight and guidance. My only regret is that I did not make a greater effort to engage John in more discussions regarding bobwhite and their ecology. Dr. Woolf was exceedingly supportive in allowing me to develop various fruitful (and sometimes not so fruitful) lines of research.

Conservation design entails 1) characterization and assessment of a landscape's capacity to support wildlife, 2) predictive modeling and mapping of species population response to this landscape, 3) assessment of conservation opportunities given those predicted patterns in occurrence and abundance, 4) strategic enhancement of landscapes to achieve conservation goals, and then 5) subsequent monitoring and evaluation to ensure that the conservation actions that follow from this process truly lead to gains for wildlife and wildlands. Conservation design should recognize the dynamical nature of populations and the landscapes they inhabit. It should also balance needs of individual priority species against those of species aggregates. Ideally, aspects of this process should generate recommendations for management which recognize future trends in landscape conditions. Each of these endeavors is infl uenced by issues associated with scale: temporal, spatial, and thematic. The future of conservation design will likely include shifts from static, pattern-based models of specieshabitat response to dynamical projections of process-based models, with commensurate recognition of the uncertainty that accompanies those projections.

Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna.

Conservation plans for grassland birds have included recommendations at the landscape level, but species’ responses to landscape structure are variable. We studied the relationships between grassland bird abundances and landscape structure in 800-ha landscapes in Wisconsin, USA, using roadside surveys. Of 9 species considered, abundances of only 4 species differed among landscapes with varying amounts of grassland and forest. Landscape variables explained ,20% of variation in abundances for 4 of the 5 rarest species in our study. Our results suggest landscape-based management plans for grassland birds might not benefit the rarest species and, thus, plans should incorporate species-specific habitat preferences for these species.

Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at three spatial scales. Our purpose was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create predictive abundance maps for purposes of conservation planning at a landscape scale given the constraint that the variables used in this exercise were derived from local-level studies. Our models indicated a substantial influence of landscape context for all species, many of which were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents. We found land cover composition provided the greatest contribution to the relative explained variance in counts for all three species; spatial structure was second in importance. No single spatial scale dominated any model, indicating that these species are responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. For purposes of conservation planning, areas of predicted high abundance should be investigated to evaluate the conservation potential of the landscape in their general vicinity. In addition, the models and spatial patterns of abundance among species suggest locations where conservation actions may benefit more than one species.

Applying conservation in an effi cient manner is desirable in a constrained economic climate. Mapped predictions of species abundance may allow the spatial targeting of focal areas for conservation, increasing the efficiency of conservation application. We overlayed mapped patterns in predicted relative abundance, from hierarchical spatial count models for 11 species of conservation concern, against digital data layers describing federal-, tribal-, and state-managed lands to identify the relative contribution of governmental agencies in the conservation of rare bird habitat in the Prairie Hardwood Transition (Bird Conservation Region 23). The proportion of predicted populations under direct governmental jurisdiction differed by habitat guild, with 0.5%, 1.3%, and 1.0% of grassland birds occurring on federal-, state-, and tribal-managed lands, respectively, and 2.8%, 17.9%, and 3.1% of forest birds occurring on federal-, state-, and tribal-managed lands, respectively. Irrespective of habitat guild, the vast majority of most species were predicted to occur on private lands (with Cerulean Warbler [Dendroica cerulea] as a notable exception). This importance of private lands for the conservation of rare birds in the midwestern U.S. has profound consequences for how natural resource agencies should direct their effort if they are to be successful conservators of these trust resources. The maps of predicted abundances relative to governmentally managed lands that we provided may be used to prioritize and focus management on private lands in the Prairie Hardwood Transition. This spatial targeting of conservation effort represents an efficient, accountable, and scientifically justifi able approach to the management of species of conservation concern.

Efficient application of conservation measures is especially desirable in a constrained economic climate. Mapped predictions of a species’ abundance may allow the spatial targeting of focal areas for conservation, thereby increasing the efficiency of conservation efforts. Mapped predictions from a hierarchical spatial count model of the relative abundance of displaying male American woodcock (Scolopax minor, hereafter woodcock) during the breeding season provided an opportunity to identify focal areas for conservation in the midwestern and northeastern United States. We overlayed the mapped patterns in predicted relative abundance against digital data layers describing federal- and state-managed lands to identify the relative contribution of governmental agencies to the conservation of woodcock habitat. We found that governmental agencies, in a regional sense, have direct jurisdiction over woodcock habitat equal to that expected by chance. In total, 7% of predicted displaying male woodcock occurred on federally administered lands and 13% occurred on state-administered lands. Thus, the vast majority (80%) of the woodcock population occurs on private lands. We identified 10 peaks in relative woodcock abundance throughout the breeding range that may be focused on for future conservation action. Some of these peaks in predicted abundance, for instance, near Lake Superior State Forest in Michigan, are currently within the direct jurisdiction of governmental land management agencies, whereas other areas, such as peaks occurring in northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York, and northern Maine, largely occur in a private lands context. Thus, conservation of woodcock on their breeding grounds will require an array of management approaches largely dictated by their spatial context relative to current land ownership. With validation, these maps of predicted abundance relative to governmentally managed lands can be used to prioritize and focus management of woodcock in the United States portion of the breeding range.

Grassland birds are among the most imperiled groups of birds in North America. Unfortunately, little is known about the location of regional concentrations of these birds, thus regional or statewide conservation efforts may be inappropriately applied, reducing their effectiveness. We identified environmental covariates associated with the abundance of five grassland birds in the upper midwestern United States (Bobolink [Dolichonyx oryzivorus], Grasshopper Sparrow [Ammodramus savannarum], Henslow’s Sparrow [A. henslowii ], Sedge Wren [Cistothorus platensis], and Upland Sandpiper [Bartramia longicauda]) with a hierarchical spatial count model fitted with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are well suited to this task because they are able to incorporate effects associated with autocorrelated counts and nuisance effects associated with years and observers, and the resulting models can be used to map predicted abundance at a landscape scale. Environmental covariates were derived from five suites of variables: landscape composition, landscape configuration, terrain heterogeneity and physiognomy, climate, and human influence. The final models largely conformed to our a priori expectations. Bobolinks and Henslow’s Sparrows were strongly sensitive to grassland patch area. All of the species except Henslow’s Sparrows exhibited substantial negative relations with forest composition, often at multiple spatial scales. Climate was found to be important for all species, and was the most important factor influencing abundance of Grasshopper Sparrows. After mapping predicted abundance, we found no obvious correspondence in the regional patterns of the five species. Thus, no clearly defined areas exist within the upper midwestern United States where management plans can be developed for a whole suite of grassland birds. Instead, a larger, region-wide initiative setting different goals for different species is recommended.

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie–Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species’ population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g., nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.