Country Risk Analysis

This study evaluates Hungary's equity market using Damodaran's country risk premium (CRP) framework to estimate its cost of equity and assess investment attractiveness within the Central and Southeast European context. The paper integrates Hungary's sovereign credit rating, default spread, and a volatility adjustment to compute an implied cost of equity of approximately 11.5%, placing it among the least risky regional markets. The methodology benchmarks Hungary against peers including Romania, Slovakia, Serbia, Bosnia, and North Macedonia using key structural indicators such as market capitalization, turnover, P/E ratios, and foreign ownership. Findings show that Hungary benefits from deeper market liquidity, broader investor participation, and stronger integration with global capital markets compared to its frontier neighbors. However, institutional and political risksparticularly EU governance disputescontinue to inflate its risk premium above fundamentals. The results underscore how sovereign risk, market structure, and integration interact to shape equity valuations. The study concludes that targeted reforms aimed at enhancing governance and investor protections could lower Hungary's risk premium and align it more closely with developed EU markets, offering a roadmap for peer economies undergoing similar transitions. Implications for Central European audience: The paper provides a replicable framework for evaluating equity risk in post-socialist economies. Hungary's example illustrates how institutional quality, liquidity, and policy credibility jointly influence investment outcomes. These insights can guide reforms and capital market strategies across Central and Eastern Europe.

Dado que en el país no existe un consenso sobre la crítica situación actual que atraviesa la economía boliviana, de sus causas y de las medidas para superarla, el documento tiene por objeto, en primer lugar, proponer un punto de partida mínimo común centrado en el corto plazo y en la caracterización de la crisis económica por la erupción de la crisis cambiaria en 2023 en el contexto de una crónica crisis fiscal, que se arrastra desde 2014 junto con una continua caída de las reservas internacionales, asociada inicialmente a un shock externo de precios, después a un shock interno de caída de la producción y la oferta exportable de hidrocarburos que derivó en una balanza negativa de combustibles y, finalmente, al cierre del mercado argentino como destino del gas natural boliviano. En segundo lugar, la idea es discutir la viabilidad de las medidas que actualmente circulan como el ajuste fiscal y monetario-cambiario y, en tercer lugar, proponer medidas de corto plazo consistentes en la creación de un Fondo de Estabilización y Reservas junto a un shock de confianza, requisito previo para la aplicación de medidas de ajuste fiscal y otras opciones de política cambiaria. Al final, se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones enfatizando que para enfrentar la crítica situación actual se requerirán no solo de buenas políticas económicas y un acuerdo político consensuado, sino también de la buena suerte con una alineación favorable de los astros.

This study investigates the documentary discrepancy risks within the letter of credit operations in the Nigerian crude oil export. The underlining principles of letter of credit transaction require the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to submit the full set of documents to the banks in accordance with the terms and conditions set in the letter of credit for payment. These conditions must reflect the underlying sales contract as well as the Uniform Customs and Practice (UCP 600) that governs the letter of credit transaction. Presenting non-compliant documents to the bank remains the global phenomenon among international traders, resulting in unnecessary delays, financial loss and refused payment when discrepancies are discovered. A survey by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) revealed an estimation of 60 to 70 percent discrepancy rate worldwide. A case study approach was used in this research and the data were analysed against the integrated export letter of cr...

are method of payment developed to facilitate the process of international trade by replacing the payment risk of importer with irrevocable payment guarantee of a bank to exporter. Instead, the exporter is supposed to present fully compliant set of documents required by the credit. Documentary nature of DLCs make them vulnerable to the risk of discrepancy. This risk is will affect exporter's business as he is the one who should absorb it. Therefore, it will be recommended to exporters to negotiate the minimum number of required documents while closing the underlying contract of sales with importer. The paper is divided into four parts: after the introductory section, the literature review will briefly analyses process of international DLC operation and latest version of INCOTERMS plus their role as delivery terms in international trade. Next section will discuss methodology and results of empirical study done on choice of delivery terms and third party produced documents on discrepancy rate in DLC operation in Estonian export trade. Last but not the least, final section will provide conclusions of the study.

En esta investigación,se llevó a cabo un análisis econométrico con el propósito de evaluar el efecto de la Tasa de Política Monetaria en el crecimiento económico de la República Dominicana durante el período 2011-2023. Se utilizaron datos suministrados por el Banco Central de la República Dominicana empleando un modelo de Vectores de Corrección de Errores (VECM), que es una extensión del modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR). Los resultados obtenidos evidencian que, en el largo plazo, un aumento en la tasa de política monetaria tiene un impacto negativo en el Índice Mensual de la Actividad Económica (IMAE). De igual forma, se observa que incrementos en el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) y en el tipo de cambio entre el peso dominicano (RD$) y el dólar estadounidense (US$) también generan disminuciones en el IMAE. En contraste, los resultados revelaron que un incremento unitario en las variables de depósitos y préstamos tiene un efecto positivo en el IMAE a largo plazo. Es importante destacar que se realizó un modelo alternativo, cuyos resultados fueron consistentes con el modelo principal. En conclusión, los resultados del análisis econométrico avalan la hipótesis principal de este estudio al confirmar que la Política Monetaria ejerce un impacto significativo en la actividad económica.

Starting from accelerated industrial development, industrial disasters (chemical spills, explosions, nuclear accidents, etc.), which fall under man-made (technological) disasters, increasingly threaten human lives, the environment, and property. Their complexity and far-reaching consequences, both at the local and global levels, require effective management of industrial risks and the disasters themselves (preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery). For these reasons, the review paper aims to provide a holistic description of the diverse causes, dynamics, and multidimensional consequences of disasters. Additionally, it highlights and explains the key factors that directly or indirectly contribute to their occurrence. Furthermore, it could be said that the paper analyzes existing strategies for managing risks from industrial disasters and systematizes recommendations for improving preventive and reactive measures in high-risk industries. On the other side, the paper utilizes a comprehensive literature review, which involves the systematic identification, review, analysis, and critical evaluation of existing scientific papers, studies, reports, and regulatory documents on industrial disasters. Besides that, it also includes a detailed analysis of well-known industrial disaster cases such as Seveso (Italy, 1976), Bhopal (India, 1984), Chernobyl (Ukraine, then USSR, 1986), and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). The paper emphasizes that industrial disasters are often the result of the combined influence and interaction of technical failures, human errors, and inadequately developed safety procedures. Moreover, it can be highlighted that the design and implementation of preventive measures, such as regular maintenance of technical systems and systematic training and education of employees, are crucial for reducing the likelihood of such catastrophic events. The implications of this review paper are multifaceted and point to the following: the need to reassess current safety practices in industries; reconsider the potential for introducing innovations in preventive technical-technological solutions; examine the thorough implementation of innovative early warning systems, safety procedures, and modern equipment in facilities; improve cooperation between engineers, safety managers, and regulatory workers; reassess the need for additional updates and tightening of regulations regarding the storage, transport, and use of hazardous materials in industry; and improve the management of risks from industrial disasters.

This paper explores the short and long run dynamics of inflation in Pakistan using Johansen Co-integration Technique covering data from 1972-73 to 2012-13. Consumer Price Index (CPI), Exchange Rate (ER), Government Borrowing (GB), Non-Government Borrowing (NGB), Real GNP (RGNP), Indirect Taxes (IT), Growth Rate of Money Supply (GMS), Import Price Index (IPI), Real Demand relative to Real Supply (RD/RS) and Wheat Support Price (WSP) Money Supply (MS) are taken as indicators. The result shows a long run relationship among the selected variables. It is found that the ER is the most significant factor of inflation in 2011-12, GB, IT, GMS, IPI, RD/RS. It represents the output gap consist of fiscal policy inflation is highly significant.

This study analyzes the sovereign debt market in Mexico, with a focus on public debt sustainability, market structure, risks associated with external financing and debt management strategies. Using projection models and scenario analysis, the government's ability to meet its obligations in different economic contexts is evaluated. In addition, the composition of creditors, the types of financial instruments used and the dependence on international financing are examined. Finally, strategies are proposed to diversify debt, strengthen the internal market and reduce vulnerability to external shocks, with the aim of guaranteeing macroeconomic stability and long-term debt sustainability.

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the potential implications of economic freedom and competition for bank stability.Design/methodology/approachUsing system generalized method of moments and data from 139 banks across 11 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 2006–2012, this study considers whether the degree of economic freedom affects the relationship between competition and bank stability.FindingsThe results show evidence of the competition-fragility hypothesis in SSA banking, but suggests that beyond a setting threshold, increases in market power may also be damaging to bank stability. Financial freedom has a negative effect on bank stability, suggesting that banks operating in environments with greater financial freedom generally tend to be less stable or more risky. The authors also find evidence of a conditional effect of economic freedom on the competition–stability relationship, implying that bank failure is more likely to occur in countries with greater econo...

Este informe recoge los resultados económicos mundiales y latinoamericanos, en contraste con los de El Salvador, en términos de crecimiento, en general, y de los diferentes sectores, la evolución de los precios y salarios, el estado de la balanza de pagos o de los flujos de entrada y salida de divisas, y un panorama sobre los resultados fiscales y el presupuesto del año 2006.

Which foreign direct investments are most affected by political instability? Analysis of quarterly greenfield investment flows into countries in the Middle East and North Africa during the period from 2003 to 2012 shows that adverse political shocks are associated with significantly reduced investment inflows in the non-resource tradable sectors. By contrast, investments in natural resource sectors and non-tradable activities appear insensitive to such shocks. Political instability is thus associated with increased reliance on nontradables and aggravated resource dependence. JEL codes: F21, F23, O13, O16, P48 How does political instability affect the level and composition of foreign direct investment (FDI)? The answer to this question has important implications for countries' development trajectories since not all types of FDI are considered equally conducive to economic growth. Alfaro (2003) demonstrates that the growth spillovers associated with FDI vary across sectors, being positive in manufacturing, ambiguous in the services sector, and negative in the primary sector.

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) and empirically examine their effects on the growth of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) countries. This relationship has largely been analyzed in the economic literature. The results are mixed, some of the theoretical and empirical studies have shown that there is no positive relationship between FDI and economic growth, while others have found that FDI affect positively and significantly the longrun economic growth. Indeed, AMU countries have developed in recent years, an economic policy aimed at promoting the development of their economy. In these economies, FDI is considered as a key factor towards progress in economic sectors. This type of external funding has shown an increasing trend over time; however, the achievements of AMU countries in attracting FDI are still low compared to their potential and their performance to attract more foreign investments. In this paper, we use a dynamic panel system GMM estimator to study the determinants and the growth effects of FDI in three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) during the period 1980-2010. Our empirical investigation suggests that, under particular economic and financial conditions, such as the adoption of an export promotion trade regime, restoring international competitiveness and diversification of exports, foreign direct investment affects positively the growth rate in the long run and improves the economic situation in AMU countries.

The paper aims to test the existence of financial contagion between foreign stock markets of several emerging and developed countries during the U.S subprime crisis. It empirically attests for contagion through a DCC-MGARCH (1.1) and an adjusted correlation test over 63 emerging and developing stock markets during the period from 02/01/2003 to 31/12/2013. As a result of the model of DCC-MGARCH analysis, we find the evidence of contagion during U.S subprime crisis for most of the developed and emerging countries. Another finding is the emerging markets seem to be the most influenced by the contagion effects during U.S. subprime crisis. Since financial contagion is important for monetary policy, risk measurement, asset pricing and portfolio allocation, the findings of paper may be the interest of policy makers, investors, and portfolio managers.

La Guía de símbolos, próceres, heroínas y héroes patrios de
Honduras es un estudio que busca compartir con la comunidad
educativa, compuesta por docentes, educandos, padres y madres
de familia, conocimientos generales sobre los símbolos nacionales,
biografías de las heroínas y héroes nacionales a fin de fortalecer la
identidad nacional y servir como lineamiento para las actividades
cívicas del 15 de septiembre, día en que se celebra la Independencia
patria.

In recent times, the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) into economies has been a major task embarked upon by many nations. Though much have been documented on the impact of foreign direct investment inflow to host nations at the macro level, less is known about the impact of foreign direct investment at the firm level, especially in Africa, despite the greater efforts put in place to woo in FDI. This study investigated the link between FDI and firm economic activities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study specifically answered the following questions: (1) to what extent does FDI inflow to firms enhance the value of the host firms? (2) Do firms with FDI spend more on CSR than non-FDI owned firms? (3) What impact has FDI got on firm innovation? The outcome of the study has been organized into three empirical essays. The first empirical essay investigates the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and firm value (measured using Tobin's Q and ROA) for selected African firms from Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa for the period of 2008 to 2012. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments, we established that FDI has a positive significant impact on firm value in all the three countries (South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana). This positive relationship between FDI and firm value in the selected countries can be attributed to technological transfer, managerial transfer, innovation transfer and skills transfer in favour of the host firms through inflows of FDI. The second essay investigates empirically the impact of inward FDI on host firm Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance in South Africa. The study employs Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) to estimate the effect of FDI on CSR and thus addresses contemporaneous cross-correlations across the panel cross sections as well as endogeneity between FDI and CSR. It is established from the study that FDI has a strong positive impact on firm CSR performance. When CSR is decomposed further into its major components, FDI positively impacts on social and environmental components but has no impact on governance components. The third empirical essay investigates the impact of inward FDI on host firm innovation in Nigeria and South Africa. In examining the relationship between FDI and firm innovation, two robust Instrumental Variable estimation techniques (Two Stage Least Squares and Limited Information Maximum Likelihood) have been employed so as to account for endogeneity problems. While FDI positively influences firm innovation in Nigeria, we found no evidence of any impact of FDI on Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za vi firm innovation in South Africa. This study does not only serve as a reference work for subsequent investigations on the impact of FDI on innovation in Sub-Saharan Africa, but it also serves as a guide to policy makers on trade and investment policies. The contribution of this thesis is in a number of ways. One, it accounts for endogeneity between FDI and firm value and FDI and innovation, an issue often neglected by most studies. It is also the first study to empirically examine the relationship between FDI and CSR in a more encompassing manner by using a unique and comprehensive measure of CSR from the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) Governance Survey in South Africa. Again, unlike previous studies where CSR is measured by using only governance, or only legal or only environmental or only philanthropic issues or the combination of them in a limited manner. In this way new evidence is presented on the FDI effect on CSR. For instance, although the effect of FDI on one dimension of CSR e.g. governance may be insignificant, it does not tell us anything about the importance of social and environmental CSR effects of FDI unless these are equally investigated. The study again presents new evidence that shows that context matters in investigating the innovation impact of FDI. Furthermore, unlike most studies which use R&D and patents to measure innovation we create an innovation index using a multiple correspondent analysis (MCA) approach which captures innovation holistically. This approach captures the time lag problems associated with previous methods.

Present study investigates the link between net capital inflows and the current account balance in Turkey. Using monthly data for the period of 2002-2014, we provide evidence that higher capital inflows are associated with larger deficits in the current account. We include two alternative measures of the net inflows – the financial account and foreign liabilities of the banks in Turkey. The paper analyzes this relationship under the different model specifications with a number of control variables that capture both domestic and external factors. We also show that imbalances in the current account are highly responsive to the fluctuations in the real exchange rates, mostly triggered by the changes in capital flows. The Granger causality test reveals one-directional causal link from the financial account to the external balance but not the reverse. Given exogenous character of the global capital and random nature of the developments in the financial account, high inflows to Turkey h...

En la actualidad es innegable la importancia del riesgo país y del riesgo soberano como indicadores para monitorear la percepción de riesgo de los inversionistas internacionales y para que empresarios extranjeros y locales evalúen su nivel de exposición a este riesgo total al invertir en mercados emergentes. Riesgo país y riesgo soberano son conceptos muy relacionados y por ello se les suele confundir a pesar de que no representan lo mismo. En este trabajo se ofrece una definición de ambos conceptos y se comentan los indicadores comúnmente utilizados para medirlos. Se sostiene que el riesgo país está asociado a la volatilidad de las variaciones no anticipadas en los niveles de inversión pública y privada (de origen doméstico o extranjero) y que puede ser financiada con capital propio o con préstamos del extranjero. Por su parte, el riesgo soberano es un subconjunto del riesgo país ya que sólo se refiere a la volatilidad de las variaciones no anticipadas en los niveles de inversión pública. Se concluye que ningún indicador comúnmente utilizado para medir el riesgo país y el riesgo soberano se ajusta a las definiciones ofrecidas y que el uso de uno u otro indicador dependerá de la utilidad que se le pretenda dar a l mismo.

This paper analyses Turkey's country risk using a time-varying country beta market model incorporating various macroeconomic variables over the period January 2004 to August 2015. To our knowledge this is the first study exploring Turkey's country risk using country beta approach. We confirmed that Turkey's country beta is time-varying and demonstrates a huge amount of volatility especially between 2004 and 2007. We find that government and private sector external debt and market interest rates are the significant macroeconomic factors that have influenced Turkey's country beta during the analysis period. These findings reveal an important structural macroeconomic change in Turkish economy that is concerns about the sustainability of government debt and public finances have shifted to private sector related issues. Specifically, while private sector external debt, which increased rapidly during this period, has a significant positive impact on Turkey's country beta, substantially lowered levels of government external debt (as a percentage of GDP) acts as a risk-reducing macroeconomic factor.

El objetivo de este artículo, es ofrecer una visión general del deterioro del crecimiento económico de Bolivia, en el período 2013 al 2022, principalmente de estas variables macroeconómicas de estudio como son la exportación del gas natural, las reservas internacionales netas, la deuda externa y las importaciones de carburantes de diésel y gasolina, cada una de estas variables son dependientes de la moneda extranjera dólares. En este entendido, el deterioro se debe principalmente por la caída de la exportación de gas, las reservas y el incremento de la deuda externa y la importación de carburantes, tal como nos reflejan los datos históricos y donde identificamos las cuatro etapas de inflexión. En la última etapa, se caracterizó con una escasez de dólares y una alta demanda de esta por los ciudadanos y el gobierno, sumada la falta de transparencia en la divulgación de información de las reservas internacionales netas y depender de los recursos no renovables da como resultado un deter...

This paper uses quarterly data to examine the effect of global and domestic factors on the real effective exchange rates (REER) for 20 emerging market economies for 2000-2015. We find that GDP growth and the domestic policy interest rate are robustly associated with REER appreciation in emerging economies. Among global factors, an increase in global risk is negatively related to the real exchange rate, while the Brent crude oil price is positively related. The overall positive effect of crude oil price is more pronounced for the REER of oil-exporting countries, and negative for oil-importing countries. We also find that a relatively flexible exchange rate regime reduces the negative impact of global risk on REER, but capital account openness does not seem to play a role. These findings have implications for emerging market economies in developing policies to respond to commodity price fluctuations and changes in the global monetary and risk environment.

En este artículo se analiza la incidencia del consumo final e inversión bruta en el empleo formal de la economía nicaragüense (2009-2018), respaldado por la teoría keynesiana. Se utilizan datos oficiales del Banco Central de Nicaragua (BCN) y se realiza un análisis correlacional con modelización econométrica a través del método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO). La evolución de las variables muestra una tendencia creciente a lo largo del periodo, únicamente en 2018 que sufren un descenso debido a la crisis sociopolítica, a excepción de la inversión bruta, que tiene un comportamiento fluctuante y su mayor descenso fue en 2018. Las actividades económicas que demandaron mayor fuerza laboral fueron servicios comunales, sociales y personales y la industria manufacturera, y que a su vez fueron las actividades que fortalecieron el sector exportador.  Tanto el consumo final como la inversión bruta tienen un efecto positivo en el empleo formal; se evidencia el efecto multiplicador del co...

Financial leverage decision by firm continues to attract interest from managers, analysts, researchers, scholars as well as policymakers because of its implications for the firm and its stakeholders. This paper investigates how the complexity of business, firms’ dependence on external finance and growth opportunity affects the financial leverage decision among quoted diversified companies in Nigeria. The study took a census of six diversified firms quoted on the Nigerian capital market over the period of 10 years (2008-2017). Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix were employed with panel data analysis using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) robust model to analyse the data. The results from the study revealed that the complexity of business and growth opportunity is positive and significantly influencing the financial leverage of quoted diversified companies in Nigeria, while dependence on the external finance revealed a significantly negative effect on the financial leverage. It ...

In this article, we focus on considering different risk factors influencing the cash flows of a group of companies. A methodology is suggested for approximated consideration of both seasonal and random fluctuations in the environment, which have some impact on the overall group activity and may be considered via modification of the risk-adjusted discount rates. The main steps of the suggested methodology are described, and the elements of the risk-adjusted discount rate are presented. Although it is the general convention to use the market rate as the discount rate in most cases, under certain circumstances—i.e., stochastic shocks related to the level of interest rates, shifts, and turnabouts in the social environment, as well as the market transformations due to annual/seasonal epidemics, the use of a risk-adjusted discount rate becomes essential. The influence of the seasonal and random changes in the general environment on the companies’ activity through modification of the disco...

Background: The paper contains the economic background for implementing the build-up approach as an alternative method to the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM). Research purpose: This study aims to consider company-specific risk premium that makes cost estimation unique, subjective, and different within the economic factors that may be considered and used for entity cost of equity estimation, valuation, or other economic metrics. Methods: The author analyzes the most recent literature on companies’ cost of equity and estimating specific risk premiums. Each component of the cost of capital in the build-up approach was analyzed and interpreted. The petroleum industry was analyzed between 2011 and 2021. The Mercer model for specific risk was used. Conclusions: The build-up approach seems the best choice to calculate equity costs in a turbulent economic environment. However, due to its mathematical structure, it could be criticized for the huge subjectivity in the assessment risk prem...

The objective of this paper is to analyse the information content of the term structure of interest rates in Belgium. It is, however, well known that the intermediate target of Belgian monetary policy is the stabilisation of the DM/BF exchange rate. This type of policy has produced close links between Belgian and German interest rates and therefore between both countries' term structures. Hence, the analysis of the Belgian term structure cannot be isolated from what happens in Germany and our analysis is therefore extended to include the information content of the term structure of German interest rates as well.

The banking industry in the entire world has experienced tremendous diversification levels spurred by the sector liberalization and deregulation in the last two decades. This is especially so because of the competitive pressure that has resulted from non-bank institutions entry into the sector as well as the resulting reductions in cost efficiencies and profit margins earlier associated with the intermediation business. While banks have resolved to creative diversification strategies to overcome the profit compression and competition pressure, a number of questions central to this practice still linger and which this paper seeks to address. First, what is diversification in banking? Though, it is clearly defined in strategic management literature, the true meaning of diversification in banking has remained elusive. Secondly, what is the theoretical motivation behind firms and managers pursuit of diversification? Lastly, what are the avenues through which banks can execute a diversif...

Economists argue that a relation between foreign direct investments (FDI) and economic growth exists. In many studies, it has been investigated the way FDI affect economic growth. In the literature, it has been concluded that foreign direct investment has a positive impact on economic growth. In some studies, it was determined that there was no causality between economic growth and direct foreign investments. This article differs from the other studies in terms of both its perspective and results. In this article, it is important to analyze how the per capita GDP growth affects FDI in opposition to the studies in the literature and it is thought that this study will contribute to the literature. Another feature that distinguishes this article from others is that the analyses are not linear analysis but nonlinear analysis. Obtained results will guide policy-makers. The results are of great importance for policymakers in underdeveloped countries in terms of saying that they need to ke...

This research aims at studying the effect of political changes on Egyptian economy by studying the direct and indirect effect of political risk index and its sub-indicators on number of important variables such as economic growth, employment, exchange rates, Egyptian Exchange main index (EGX30), foreign investment flows, domestic interest rates, and domestic public debt during the time period from 2006 to 2015 using parametric and nonparametric statistical methods. The study concluded that political risk index and its sub-indicators have had varying effects on financial and real investment and other macroeconomic variables in Egypt; and that achieving a successful economic development process cannot be reached without taking into account determinants of political risk.

This article examines the relationship between six macroeconomic variables and stock market returns of 13 emerging markets from Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia in the context of global financial crisis of 2008. The findings reveal some commonality in determination and variation of returns with macroeconomic variables from pre-crisis (1st January 2005–31st March 2009) to post-crisis period (1st April 2009–31st March 2016). Further, results show co-integration among most of the macroeconomic variables depicting significant implications for investors and policymakers.

El presente informe analiza de manera sucinta las ponencias efectuadas tanto por las autoridades del gobierno de Honduras como por el representante del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) en la reunión mantenida por ambas partes el 24 de abril de 2007 en Tegucigalpa. En la exposición se han tomado en cuenta, asimismo, las conversaciones previas mantenidas por el consultor con las

With regard to the market structure and performance in Bangladesh banking industry, there are two competing hypotheses-the traditional structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis and the efficiency hypothesis (EH). Using pooled and annual data for the period 1999-2002, this study tests the validity of these two hypotheses. In general, the results of this study support the EH hypothesis as an explanation for market performances in Bangladesh, but for definitive policy purposes, the impact of the banking structure needs to be explored further. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk governance practice is gaining prominence as a result of its active role in addressing risk related issues within the banking sector. The study investigates the effect of risk governance on the performance of listed commercial banks in Sub Saharan African region. A sample of 50 banks from six (6) SSA countries were drawn between the periods of 2010-2018. Data were collected from the annual report of the banks while World Bank database supplements the data for the macroeconomic variables. The two-step system GMM technique was used to analyse the data collected and findings from the study revealed that, risk experience members have strong positive effect on the performance of banks. The study recommends among others to ensure adequate risk experience members in the risk committee of the banks. Moreover, recognizing the office of chief risk officer within the banking corporate governance contribute towards better banking performance.

La economía costarricense es una economía pequeña y muy abierta al exterior, por ello, lo que ocurre en el resto del mundo le afecta en menor o mayor grado. Cuando estalló la crisis en los Estados Unidos, sus repercusiones se hicieron notar rápidamente en el mundo. En un principio el principal efecto sobre Costa Rica se vio reflejado en la inflación, sin embargo, posteriormente los efectos saltaron al sector real de la economía: la producción y al empleo. Aquí se analizan los principales efectos macroeconómicos que tuvo la crisis económica mundial en la economía del país durante los años 2008 y 2009; entre ellos, la inflación, la reducción en la actividad económica de los sectores construcción, industria, comercio y hoteles, principalmente; la caída en el turismo, las remesas, la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), las exportaciones e importaciones y, por último, la pérdida de empleos

This paper examines the effects of government policies and institutions on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in sub-Saharan African context using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. On the quantitative approach, we analysed the effects of institutions on FDI using two statistical techniques: CCR and FMOLS over the period of 1984-2012. We find that political instability, democratic accountability and investment risk have significant impact on inward FDI in Nigeria. Using a trend analysis, our results provide evidence to suggest that liberal government investment policies have positive influence on FDI inflows. Our qualitative analysis over the 1962-2012 period supports the results of the quantitative analysis.

АЛБАНИ УЛСЫН ТУХАЙ 23 ФАКТ 1. Албани нь зүүн өмнөд Европт оршдог бөгөөд баруун хойд талаараа Монтенегро, зүүн хойд талаараа Косово, зүүн талаараа Хойд Македон, өмнөд талаараа Грек улстай хиллэдэг. 2. Албани улсын албан ёсны нэр нь Бүгд Найрамдах Албани Улс бөгөөд нийслэл бөгөөд хамгийн том хот нь Тирана юм. 3. Албани хэл нь тус улсын албан ёсны хэл бөгөөд хүн амын дийлэнх нь албани хэлээрээ ярьдаг.

con éxito a la economía e introdujo importantes reformas. Pese a ello, la economía de Bolivia se encuentra en una profunda crisis recesiva y estructural que pone en peligro inclusive al sistema democrático. En términos de desarrollo económico y social, este modelo fracasó. La estabilización se convirtió en un fin en sí mismo. La dolarización de la economía se mantuvo en altos niveles, el Boliviano no tiene capacidad contractual. La apreciación de la moneda fomentada por las importaciones de capital más una liberalización desmedida del comercio frenaron el desarrollo del aparato productivo. La pobreza, el desempleo y la informalidad crecieron. La redistribución del ingreso y la riqueza es catastrófica. Bolivia financió con ayuda y recursos externos una ilusión de desarrollo.

Risk governance practice is gaining prominence as a result of its active role in addressing risk related issues within the banking sector. The study investigates the effect of risk governance on the performance of listed commercial banks in Sub Saharan African region. A sample of 50 banks from six (6) SSA countries were drawn between the periods of 2010-2018. Data were collected from the annual report of the banks while World Bank database supplements the data for the macroeconomic variables. The two-step system GMM technique was used to analyse the data collected and findings from the study revealed that, risk experience members have strong positive effect on the performance of banks. The study recommends among others to ensure adequate risk experience members in the risk committee of the banks. Moreover, recognizing the office of chief risk officer within the banking corporate governance contribute towards better banking performance.

Este informe recoge los resultados económicos mundiales y latinoamericanos, en contraste con los de El Salvador, en términos de crecimiento, en general, y de los diferentes sectores, la evolución de los precios y salarios, el estado de la balanza de pagos o de los flujos de entrada y salida de divisas, y un panorama sobre los resultados fiscales y el presupuesto del año 2006.

La coyuntura actual ha forzado a los países al confinamiento y consecuentemente la detención de la producción deteriorando la actividad productiva y los indicadores macroeconómicos como el crecimiento de la producción y el empleo. Por lo que, resulta importante analizar si los estímulos fiscales y monetarios en las economías como la hondureña son una realidad o una utopía, es decir, si logran mantener la estabilidad económica, para que el nivel productivo se mantenga y las familias no disminuyan sus ingresos a causa el desempleo. Para realizar el análisis metodológicamente se utilizó un enfoque cuantitativo con alcance descriptivo, que permitió observar que las políticas implementadas han sido insuficientes para mantener la estabilidad económica en Honduras debido a que según proyecciones del Banco Central de Honduras (BCH) la actividad productiva mostrará una tasa de crecimiento de -8%.

This research analyzes the evolution of the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) to the economy of Puerto Rico, in the period 2009-2014. The index assigns a score to the participating countries in terms of competitiveness, and is published annually by the World Economic Forum. The study results indicate that Puerto Rico has won 10 stages in the competitiveness ranking, from position 42 in 2009 to position 32 in 2014, while the Global Competitiveness Index has risen from 4.5 in 2009 to a value of 4.6 in 2014. The bureaucratic inefficiency and restrictive government regulations for employment are the factors that constitute the greatest obstacle to doing business on the island, and its weight has not changed significantly since 2009, when it totaled 42.8% compared to 2014 (41.2%). The GCI is a valid reference for the establishment of public policies, investment initiatives and implementing strategies for increasing productivity, aimed at generating prosperity on the island.

La economía costarricense es una economía pequeña y muy abierta al exterior, por ello, lo que ocurre en el resto del mundo le afecta en menor o mayor grado. Cuando estalló la crisis en los Estados Unidos, sus repercusiones se hicieron notar rápidamente en el mundo. En un principio el principal efecto sobre Costa Rica se vio reflejado en la inflación, sin embargo, posteriormente los efectos saltaron al sector real de la economía: la producción y al empleo. Aquí se analizan los principales efectos macroeconómicos que tuvo la crisis económica mundial en la economía del país durante los años 2008 y 2009; entre ellos, la inflación, la reducción en la actividad económica de los sectores construcción, industria, comercio y hoteles, principalmente; la caída en el turismo, las remesas, la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), las exportaciones e importaciones y, por último, la pérdida de empleos.

This paper provides an analysis of contagion by measuring disequilibria in risk premium dynamics. We propose to test financial contagion using an econometric procedure where we first estimate the preference parameters of the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) to measure the equilibrium risk premia in different countries and then we consider the difference between empirical and equilibrium risk premia to test crosscountry disequilibrium episodes due to contagion. Disequilibrium in financial markets is modeled by the multivariate DCC-GARCH model including a deterministic crisis variable. Our approach allows to identify the disequilibria generated by increases in volatility that is not explained by fundamentals but is endogenous to financial markets and to evaluate the existence of contagion effects defined by exogenous shifts in crosscountry return correlations during crisis periods. Our results show evidence of contagion from the U.S. to U.