Crime drop research

The 'crime drop' is the most important criminological phenomenon of modern times. In North America, Europe, and Australasia, many common crimes have fallen by half or more since the early 1990s, albeit with variation in the specifics. Seventeen explanations are examined here including demographics, policing, imprisonment, drug markets and lead poisoning. Some have been falsified, some lack evidence, some are inconsistent with the evidence, and some claim a minor contribution at most. Pioneering research that developed explanations only relevant to the United States now appears, with the benefit of hindsight, somewhat parochial. Sixteen of the seventeen hypotheses fail one or more of four evidence-based standardized tests on which they are assessed. The one that passes is the security hypothesis, underpinned by crime opportunity theories. Here there is strong evidence from four countries that vehicle theft fell due to more and better security, and mounting evidence that improved security was critical in reducing burglary and other acquisitive crime. Many crime types are inter-related, while most criminal careers are dominated by property crime, so removing these volume crimes might be expected to reduce violence. The policy implication of the security hypothesis is that governments should promote regulation and incentives to promote designing-out crime and crime-proofing for the remaining common crimes plus new and emerging crime types.

Domestic burglary is a widely studied crime not only because it is rather common, but also for its great impact on citizens’ security (Dugato et al. 2015).
The trend of this type of offence is quite difficult to predict due to its volatile nature. In Italy, for instance, between 2010 and 2014, home burglary rate has increased enormously (+108,3%) (Caneppele, Viganò, and Favarin 2015,51), but from 2015 it has started to decrease

In the latter quarter of the twentieth century, successive UK governments made burglary the focal point of policies aimed at harm reduction and crime prevention. This paper uses an adaptation of Christie's construction of the ideal victim is a useful way of explaining this. Three dimensions are distinguished: the ideal crime; the ideal victim; and the ideal offender. It is argued that burglary was the ideal crime, the burglary victim was the ideal victim, and the burglar constituted the ideal offender. More recently, a shift in government priorities has resulted in burglary no longer being accorded the same emphasis by policy makers. This is explained in terms of it no longer being considered the ideal crime. At the same time, burglary victims have been replaced by other victims considered more deserving, and other offenders who more starkly epitomise the evil outsider. While a change of direction may bring additional help for victims previously ignored, it is regrettable that t...

There has been a massive decline in the ability of prominent community stakeholders to police and solve burglary at residential premises at selected rural areas. The objective of this study was to explore rural policing of burglary at residential premises within the Ga-Molepo village, Limpopo Province, South Africa. This was supported by the application of the Broken Window Theory (BWT). The inductive Thematic Content Analysis (TCA) was followed for data analysis. About Thirty-Two [32] participants were purposively selected from Mankweng-selected rural areas. From a qualitative standpoint and adoption of exploratory research design, data was gathered through semi-structured In-Depth Interviews (IDIs). The inductive Thematic Content Analysis (TCA) was adopted for analysis. This study established that more training is required, and forensic investigators are urgently needed to support the local South African Police Service (SAPS), as they seem to be incapable of preventing this crime, but only respond after commission of this crime (Practicing reactive rural policing) and they even fail to deal with backlog of reported cases. For recommendations, the local SAPS members in a rural setting should prioritise this crime, irrespective of its nature, while using the 'Night Guards' to oppose threats and restore peace and order.

Starting with a review of the current theoretical approaches to victimisation, this article seeks to explore in greater detail an important absence in current victimological theorisingnamely the intersection between offending and victimisation. Using data from a national (UK) sample and data from a recently completed study of the offending and victimisation of probationers, the article illuminates the extent to which probationers are victimised and illustrates some of the processes by which people become both victims and offenders. In the closing sections of the article, the authors return to a discussion of the victimological literature and urge researchers working in this field to pay more attention to the victim-offender overlap.

Crime in Australia is not uniformly distributed. In practice a majority of crimes are committed by a minority of offenders, and by the same token, a small number of victims experience a disproportionate number of crimes. This report analyses, in great detail, the fact that half of property crimes are experienced by 28.7 per cent of victims while two-thirds of personal crimes are experienced by 41.3 per cent of victims. International research has focussed on repeat victimisation as a very important criminological phenomenon, and this pioneering Australian report analyses the most recently available Australian data. While the report is primarily statistical, it examines multiple victimisation among different demographic groups, household composition and employment status. As with a great deal of Australian Institute of Criminology work, this report shows that the policy responses lie beyond the boundaries of law enforcement, and that crime prevention strategies must be developed as intersectoral partnerships.

Crime Prevention Studies is an international book series dedicated to research on situational crime prevention and other initiatives to reduce opportunities for crime. Most volumes center on particular topics chosen by expert guest editors. The editors of each volume, in consultation with the series editor, commission the papers to be published and select peer reviewers.

As a result of the mandatory introduction in 1998 of electronic immobilisers in all new vehicles, car crime has evolved so that criminals resort to stealing vehicle keys during domestic burglaries in order to steal the vehicle subsequently. This new offence is referred to as ‘car key burglary’. Building upon previous research (Shaw, Smith, & Bond, 2010), car key burglary data provided by Northamptonshire Police from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2009 was analysed to identify the crime-scene characteristics that can differentiate a car key burglary from a regular domestic burglary. Significant differences were found between car key burglaries and regular domestic burglaries pertaining to the security of the property and the types of items stolen, with secure premises and items likely to be left in a vehicle overnight (such as satellite navigation systems, in-car DVD players and mobile telephones) being more indicative of car key burglary. The implications of these findings are consid...

Expected crime rates that enable police forces to contrast recorded and anticipated spatial patterns of crime victimisation offer a valuable tool in evaluating the under-reporting of crime and inform/guide crime reduction initiatives. Prior to this study, police forces had no access to expected burglary maps at the neighbourhood level covering all parts of England and Wales. Drawing on analysis of the Crime Survey for England and Wales and employing a population terrain modelling approach, this paper utilises household and area characteristics to predict the mean residential burglary incidences per 1000 population across all neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The analysis identifies distinct differences in recorded and expected neighbourhood burglary incidences at the Output Area level, providing a catalyst for stimulating further reflection by police officers and crime analysts.

Fear of crime as a subject has received increasing levels of attention from scholars over the years. The phenomenon has been explored across diverse crimes and cultures with varying results, the better part of the literature revolving around general fear of overall crime, serious offences and Western, English-speaking countries. Adopting a more focused approach to the subject, the present study considers a lower-level crime, namely personal theft, and its effects on students in Romania as well as the UK. The aims of the project were to explore the differences in fear of crime characteristics such as sensitivity to risk and perceived likelihood of victimisation at a country level, to compare physical and psychological responses to theft, and to assess the influence of external factors such as the media. It was found that Romanian students experience significantly more fear and awareness of possible threats in almost any context. Trust in the police and reporting attitudes were highly similar between the two countries. Romanian students' attitudes towards theft were affected by both media influences and exposure to theft information through the social network, while British students were only sensitive to the latter. Several other relationships between variables are explored throughout the study. Possibilities for future research as an expansion of this topic are proposed.

This article investigates the effect of police prevention visits to recently burgled households on revictimization risk, using data on 8984 burgled houses in Adelaide, South Australia. We compare burgled dwellings whose inhabitants got advice with burgled dwellings whose inhabitants did not accept the offer of a prevention visit, and with burgled dwellings that did not get an offer at all. Using survival analysis, we estimate the effect size of the impact of prevention visits on revictimization risk. More than one in five cases of revictimization has been prevented through the prevention visit scheme.

Crime is highly concentrated: Most crime is a rehearsal for further crime against the same or similar targets, at the same or similar locations, and perhaps theft of the same type of products. The study of repeat victimization has evolved into that on crime hotspots and other forms of near repeat, and led to predictive policing. The F-B-I theory of crime concentration notes how some targets have characteristics that Flag them as attractive, offenders learn some targets or places are attractive which Boosts the chances of further crime, while the Interaction of potential offenders and suitable targets creates high crime locations. There is strong evidence that targeting crime concentrations with prevention resources can succeed but that it is not necessarily easy to implement appropriate tactics. Hence while there is great potential, much research remains to be undertaken in this rapidly evolving and important area.

This chapter provides examples of the ways in which victimization surveys have been used in environmental criminology to identify spatial distributions of crime and to test and refine hypotheses that speak to these distributions. It first makes some initial remarks on the variations in victimization surveys, which clearly affect what can be concluded from them with what confidence about differing forms of spatial contribution. It then provides three examples showing how national victimization surveys have been used to develop, test, and refine hypotheses drawn from environmental criminology that relate to spatial distributions of various crimes that link back to individual activity patterns. This is followed by a discussion of the benefits and limitations of victimization surveys in environmental criminology.

This study examines the role of household security devices in producing the domestic burglary falls in England and Wales. It extends the study of the security hypothesis as an explanation for the 'crime drop'. Crime Survey for England and Wales data are analysed from 1992 to 2011/12 via a series of data signatures indicating the nature of, and change in, the relationship between security devices and burglary. The causal role of improved security is strongly indicated by a set of interlocking data signatures: rapid increases in the prevalence of security, particularly in the availability of combinations of the most effective devices (door and window locks plus security lighting); a steep decline in the proportion of households without security accompanied by disproportionate rises in their burglary risk; and the decline being solely in forced rather than unforced entries to households. The study concludes that there is strong evidence that security caused the decline in burglary in England and Wales in the 1990s. Testing the security hypothesis across a wider range of crime types, countries and forms of security than examined to date, is required both to understand the crime drop and to derive lessons for future crime prevention practice and policy.

rime is a devastating social problem, which is seen in every society. Burglary is a property crime and it is widespread in almost every country. Burglary is the most frequent property crime in Turkey. 146,238 burglary cases happened in 2006. Burglaries cause property loss for their victims and hurt the victims' feelings. To thwart these damages and provide a safe and secure community, burglary cases should be reduced to the minimum. The reasonable way to fulfill this is to understand the facts of burglary well. Crime and delinquent theories are the best tool for this purpose. Although the routine activity theory (RAT) is a relatively new one, it can successfully explain burglary. When examined, it is clearly seen that the facts of burglary fit perfectly with the definitions of the RAT about the crime. Therefore, the theory can guide policy makers, practitioners and police organizations to develop and generate effective policies and applications to reduce burglary rates.

The main objective of this paper was to explore the nature and extent of burglary at residential grounds in the Namakgale policing area, after realisation of higher manifestations and uncontrollable nature of this crime. This paper utilised a qualitative research approach, supported by the phenomenological research design. Altogether, 30 participants were purposively selected from diverse target groups, which consists of the South African Police Service Detectives, uniform police officers, Community Policing Forum (CPF) members and managers, Community Leaders and Faith-based organisation leaders, and local community members. The objectives of the paper were realised by the use of one-on-one semi-structured interviews for data collection, and thematic analysis, in order to analyse the gathered data. Research findings of this paper revealed that the current strategies of traditional policing, such as a) foot patrolling offered by the selected stakeholders, and b) the vehicle patrollin...

Crime is highly concentrated: Most crime is a rehearsal for further crime against the same or similar targets, at the same or similar locations, and perhaps theft of the same type of products. The study of repeat victimization has evolved into that on crime hotspots and other forms of near repeat, and led to predictive policing. The F-B-I theory of crime concentration notes how some targets have characteristics that Flag them as attractive, offenders learn some targets or places are attractive which Boosts the chances of further crime, while the Interaction of potential offenders and suitable targets creates high crime locations. There is strong evidence that targeting crime concentrations with prevention resources can succeed but that it is not necessarily easy to implement appropriate tactics. Hence while there is great potential, much research remains to be undertaken in this rapidly evolving and important area.

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In the latter quarter of the twentieth century, successive UK governments made burglary the focal point of policies aimed at harm reduction and crime prevention. This paper uses an adaptation of Christie's construction of the ideal victim is a useful way of explaining this. Three dimensions are distinguished: the ideal crime; the ideal victim; and the ideal offender. It is argued that burglary was the ideal crime, the burglary victim was the ideal victim, and the burglar constituted the ideal offender. More recently, a shift in government priorities has resulted in burglary no longer being accorded the same emphasis by policy makers. This is explained in terms of it no longer being considered the ideal crime. At the same time, burglary victims have been replaced by other victims considered more deserving, and other offenders who more starkly epitomise the evil outsider. While a change of direction may bring additional help for victims previously ignored, it is regrettable that the burglary victim may be returning to obscurity.

The National Crime Victims Survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 1975 includes data on the criminal victimisation of 18,694 Australians by ten different types of crime. Unlike earlier Australian victimisation surveys by Wilson and Brown (1973) and Congalton and Najman (1974), which were restricted to specific regions and relatively small samples, the Bureau of Statistics survey provides data on a large, representative, and national * This paper was made possible by the generous assistance and cooperation given to the Australian Institute of Criminology by the staff of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Gloria Laycock and Graham Farrell dence to tackle problems. The implications for repeat victimization in particular, and problem-oriented policing in general, are discussed. INTRODUCTION Herman Goldstein's (1990) original conception of problem-oriented policing (POP) was that it ...

In 1985, the international community agreed tackle the causes of crime to prevent victimisation. Since then, that community has identified the reduction of crime and violence as integral to achieving the sustainable development goals. Contrary, factors associated with globalisation and the pandemic have led to increases in certain crimes, thus increases in criminal victimisation. Preventing crime is necessary to prevent victimisation. Prioritising people’s safety, so they do not become victims, is crucial, and given should be a greater priority internationally and domestically. Drawing on findings from crime prevention programmes designed to prevent victimisation, the author argues that victim assistance must be a key element of preventive activities. However, while crime prevention and preventing victimisation, on the one hand, are ‘same, same’, on the other hand, they are ‘different’.