Empirical research on forest vegetation characteristics and plant functional types, plant physiological parameters is required to improve model prediction of changes in forest extent, type and distribution in response to climate change...
moreEmpirical research on forest vegetation characteristics and plant functional types, plant physiological parameters is required to improve model prediction of changes in forest extent, type and distribution in response to climate change scenarios. Continued glacial retreat and increased variation in the pattern of monsoonal rainfall as a result of climate change will result in major alterations to regional hydrology. The scale and magnitude of the impacts of these changes on regulating and sustaining services of ecosystems (for example erosion and flood control and cropping regions) requires investigation in context of poverty distribution. At the river basin and catchment scale, there is a need to evaluate different and competing sectoral demands for water and develop frameworks that aid decision making to protect and improve ecosystems services for poverty alleviation. The drivers of ecosystem change, both direct and indirect, and interact with each other and affect the ecosystem in a synergistic way. The influences of macro-economic factors like trade, investment, fiscal and monetary reforms on local services like aquaculture, timber extraction and soil erosion is yet to be fully explored and require an interdisciplinary approach amongst social and bio-physical scientists. Among the direct drivers, climate change has important implications for human well-being in South Asia but there are key areas in which priority research needs have been found to exist. These are: Currently global and regional climate models provide regional monsoonal prediction with high uncertainty. There is a need to improve prediction of features (onset, duration breaks) of monsoonal rainfall on time scales relevant to the livelihoods of the poor (intra-and inter-seasonal and decadal). Simultaneously, there is a need to examine existing coping strategies of the poor to the consequences of monsoonal variation to aid in the design of future adaptation and mitigation strategies. Two processes that will be heavily influenced by climate change are desertification and coastal flooding. However, coastal flooding will have a lesser impact on the poor in the region as a whole than processes associated with reduced water availability leading to desertification. Desertification will be of greater significance in India and Pakistan in comparison to other countries in the region. There is a continuing need to monitor and improve prediction of coastal flooding events and changes to desertification patterns through the development of landscape mapping in the context of livelihood changes related to modifications to the flow of ecosystem services. Changes in the flow of ecosystem services affect the well-being of the poor, directly or indirectly, through multiple pathways. Very few studies identify the complete 'impact pathways' from drivers to responses in dynamic settings. Case studies from the region reveal an asymmetry in the distribution of benefits (damages) from ecological conservation (degradation) between the rich and the poor. The rich benefit more than poor from ecological conservation while the poor suffer more damages than the rich from degradation. Emerging policy responses in the South Asia region recognize the importance of stakeholder involvement, market-based incentives, and participatory monitoring. Building on such initiatives requires capacity building -both at institutional (governmental, policy and research) and community levels throughout the region -in the topics of ecosystem service identification, service quantification and valuation, mapping of poverty-ecosystem links, ecosystem management and monitoring. A comprehensive capacity audit is essential to enable a common regional capacity building strategy among donors to be identified, leading to evidence-based targeting of future capacity building initiatives and minimisation of effort duplication in specific areas of capacity building. Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research to assist in understanding the interactions among drivers as well as the links between ecosystem services and the different aspects of well-being. Improvement in research at this interface could be achieved by international workshops, summer schools and specific post-doctoral and PhD positions funded for specific trans/interdisciplinary activities. At the disciplinary level, there is a need to ensure that research activities relevant to ecosystem service understanding are reflected through existing or new research funding mechanisms. In this respect, it would be essential to recognise the fundamental importance of participatory research, such as indicators-based quantification of ecosystem-poverty links that will help in monitoring changes through participatory mechanisms at the community level to address all relevant stakeholder interests. Developing networks and fostering partnerships (e.g. among national governments, academic institutions, local ecosystem mangers and the international community) to address: (a) Data generation and sharing of information on ecosystem services within the region; and (b) Development of ecosystem management strategies in line with agreed conventions. Application of research outputs for decision-making: The databases, tools and frameworks generated through research initiatives and research capacity building need to be incorporated into decision-support systems (DSSs) and specific training given to decision-makers in the application of these DSSs. The following umbrella projects, which may encompass a number of specific sub-projects, could be developed under ESPA in order to address the priority research areas: Development of a spatially-based indicator system for delivery and utilisation of ecosystem services within the region. This would explicitly address the linkages between landscape mapping of ecosystem services and livelihood domains. Assessment of the relationships governing water cycling at regional, district and local scales. This would focus on the role of key ecosystems in regulating flow, including coastal inundation under climate change scenarios. Community-level vulnerability assessment for adaptation to climate change risks. This would lead to identification of important impact pathways from the climate change related drivers to changes in ecosystems and ecosystem services, and further to the risks that affect the well-being of the poor. Development of a 'Toolkit' for the valuation of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating and cultural) to enable the value of ecosystem services to be incorporated into cost-benefit analyses and other decision-making processes. Development of Decision Support Systems to support regional policy formulation. v ESPASSA Regional Situation Analysis i * This report is accompanied by an Annexure volume vi ESPASSA Regional Situation Analysis
www.espassa.org * UNEP-WCMC @ FAO, 2006. # UNEP-WCMC World Database on Protected Areas ** IUCN red list † Threatened species are those listed as Critically Endangered (CR), Endangered (EN) or Vulnerable (VU).