Proxy Wars

Armenia is not simply a small state in a difficult neighborhood. It is an ancient civilization with a deep historical memory, a distinctive cultural inheritance, a global diaspora, and a strategic geography that is both valuable and dangerous. This paper develops a constructive response to Norayr A. Dunamalyan’s analysis of Armenia’s existential challenges as a small state amid great-power competition. It accepts his concern that Armenia faces a strategic squeeze generated by external pressure, weakening security shelters, infrastructure dependence, and the Turkey–Azerbaijan tandem. It adds a further argument: external danger cannot be separated from internal weakness. The paper proposes a small-state survival doctrine for Armenia based on anti-corruption reform, social trust, economic diversification, multi-vector diplomacy, careful management of relations even with adversaries, and refusal to become a proxy battlefield in conflicts designed by larger powers. The strategic goal is not passive neutrality, but selective autonomy: the ability to cooperate widely while preserving Armenian decision-making.

This consolidated research portfolio brings together five connected volumes from the Between Survival and Asylum research series, situated within the broader Third Generation of International Relations framework. The portfolio examines the movement from staying and leaving under war, through structural crisis and forced flight, toward asylum governance and the wider global power conditions that produce displacement. It argues that migration and asylum should not be understood as isolated demographic events or individual choices alone, but as layered political, historical, institutional, and existential processes shaped by memory, identity, structural violence, global power asymmetry, proxy wars, sanctions, authoritarian coercion, legal uncertainty, and failures of international governance. Across the five volumes, the work reframes staying and leaving as identity strategies shaped by autobiographical memory and collective belonging; extends migration analysis beyond war-centric explanations; conceptualises forced migration as an existential threshold between survival, borders, uncertainty, and responsibility; interprets asylum after arrival as a form of governance that may preserve life while delaying freedom and durable belonging; and positions migration and asylum as structural outcomes of international disorder. The portfolio is intended as a consolidated academic dossier for review, guidance, and further development within the Third Generation of International Relations project.

Değişen zaman ve değişen koşullar savaşların yapılarına da etki etmiştir. Başlangıcı Truva Savaşı'ndan başlatılan Şehir Savaşları daha doğru bir isimlendirme ile Meskun mahal savaşları günümüze kadar sayısı artarak devam etmiştir. Gelişen şehirlerin nüfus yoğunluğu, büyük ekonomik ve stratejik önemi ait bulunduğu otoritenin düşmanlarını, paramiliter grupları yada kontrgerilla grupları tarafından hedef seçilmesine neden olmaktadır. Meskun mahallerin saldıran ve savunan taraflar için belirli avantajları ve dezavantajları olsa da meskun mahal savaşları her iki taraf içinde son derce zorlu bir süreçtir. Bu nedenle Meskun mahal savaş stratejisi oluşturmak zafer için elzemdir. Meskun mahal savaş stratejisi üç ana aşamadan oluşmakta, ilk aşama Stratejik Bileşenlerin Tanımlanması , ikinci aşama Stratejinin Uygulanması ve son aşama ise Stratejik Kontrol Ve Değerlendirme aşamasıdır. Gelecekte var olma savaşı verecek olan otoriteler stratejilerini oluşturmalı ve ordularını değişen koşullara göre eğitmelilerdir. Makale bu konulara değinerek stratejileri açıklamaktadır.Bu makale Yüksek Lisans eğitiminde danışman öğretim görevlisi isteği ile hazırlanmıştır. Suat BEGEÇ'in Meskun Mahal Savaş Stratejileri kitabını temel almakta ve bir özet mahiyetindedir.

Este artigo analisa a trajetória do Hezbollah — Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya, o Movimento de Resistência Islâmico, comumente referido como Partido de Deus (Hizb Allah) — no período compreendido entre a Segunda Guerra do Líbano (2006) e o contexto em curso de 2026, propondo uma periodização tripartite: ascensão político-militar consolidada (2006–2013), apogeu como potência proxy regional dentro do denominado Eixo da Resistência (2013–2019) e declínio acelerado seguido de reconfiguração orgânica sob condições de crise múltipla (2019–2026). O trabalho parte da pesquisa original da autora, publicada pela Revista Fronteira (PUC-Minas) em 2018 sob o título Fortalecimento do Hezbollah após a Guerra de 2006, e incorpora desenvolvimentos posteriores de relevância histórica: o engajamento do grupo na Guerra Civil Síria a partir de 2013, que marcou sua transição de ator de resistência para proxy de projeção regional; as crises internas do Líbano — incluindo a Revolução de Outubro de 2019 (Thawra), o colapso financeiro da libra libanesa, a explosão do porto de Beirute em agosto de 2020 e o vácuo presidencial de 2022–2025 —; e, sobretudo, o conflito de outubro de 2023 a novembro de 2024 com Israel, que resultou na eliminação da quase totalidade da liderança histórica do grupo, no esgotamento de expressiva parte de seu arsenal e na marginalização política doméstica sem precedente desde a fundação da organização em 1982. O artigo encerra com a análise do contexto de 2026: a retomada das hostilidades em março, o cessar-fogo mediado pelos Estados Unidos em abril, as primeiras negociações diretas Israel-Líbano em décadas e o debate — ainda em aberto — sobre o desarmamento do grupo. O argumento central é que a trajetória do Hezbollah ilustra os limites estruturais dos atores híbridos não estatais quando as quatro condições que sustentam sua vantagem assimétrica — apoio externo estável, opacidade operacional, narrativa de resistência como capital político e ausência de contraposição estatal interna efetiva — são sistematicamente erodidas.

Keywords: Middle East, Geopolitics, Horn of Africa, Gulf Countries, Middle Power Competition

Abstract
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have a very unique strategic partnership whose relationship is often regarded as one of the most cohesive in the Middle East. Both monarchies share economic foundations rooted in oil wealth and share overlapping regional security concerns (Ikenberry 2020). The UAE and Saudi Arabia have frequently collaborated on major foreign policy initiatives, particularly in countering extreme Islamism, a threat to regional instability. However, there is now a rift between the monarchies on how to resolve geopolitical challenges and overarching security issues. The boiling Saudi-Emirati rivalry has become visible in the Horn of Africa and other close regions, where they are actively pursuing influence through diplomatic engagement, military partnerships, and economic investments (Brautigam 2009).
Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia are all countries that have emerged as a critically contested geopolitical region. These countries’ proximity to maritime chokepoints make them central to global trade and energy flows. A significant portion of the world’s shipping passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the Mediterranean, and Indian Ocean (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2023). Having strategic control or partnerships over this region provides both economic and security advantages.
Despite global neglect towards the Saudi-UAE rivalry, it is a major driver of tensions in Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia. Both states want to lead the Gulf regional order, carry favor in trade routes, shape security outcomes, and become economic hubs beyond oil consumption. These regional differences fragment governance and sustain breakaway actors, prolonging civil wars. An analysis of the dynamics across the Horn of Africa shows that the regional wars are not isolated but interconnected conflicts shaped by external interests (Ikenberry 2020; Brautigam 2009).

Bu makale, devletlerin dış politikada gerçekten demokrasiyi yaymak mı istedikleri yoksa kendi çıkarlarını mı korudukları sorusunu sade bir dille ele almaktadır. İki temel yaklaşım karşılaştırılmıştır: biri demokrasiyi önemseyen görüş, diğeri ise çıkarların her şeyden önce geldiğini savunan görüş. Sonuç olarak, devletlerin çoğu zaman çıkarlarını ön planda tuttuğu, ancak demokrasi söylemini bu politikaları desteklemek için kullandığı görülmektedir.

Tez çalışmam boyunca, bilgi ve tecrübelerini cömertçe paylaşan ve her aşamada yol gösteren danışmanım Doç. Dr. Serkan YENAL'e sonsuz teşekkür ederim. Tez sürecimde izleme komitelerde, mesai saatleri içinde veya dışında sağladıkları yönlendirme ve destekle çalışmamın şekillenmesinde katkı sağlayan Prof. Dr. Bilal Karabulut, Doç. Dr. Emrah ÖZDEMİR ve Doç. Dr. Osman ŞEN ve Doç. Dr. Emre ÇITAK'a; yüksek lisans ve doktora dönemimde yolumu aydınlatan değerli hocalarım ve amirlerim Prof. Dr. İbrahim Ethem ATNUR, Prof. Dr. Gültekin YILDIZ ve Prof. Dr. Arif SARI'ya şükranlarımı sunarım. Araştırmalarımı yürütürken, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin kurucusu Mustafa Kemal Atatürk'ün "Türk, çalışkandır; bilim ve akılla yükselir" sözü bana ilham kaynağı olmuş ve yol gösterici olmuştur. Türk milletinin yücelmesi için canını, kanını ve terini akıtan, gecesini gündüzüne katarak Türk devletinin bugünlere gelmesini sağlayan tüm büyüklerimize minnet ve saygılarımı sunarım. Hayatımın her anında yanımda olan aileme ve bana neşe, sevgi ve arkadaşlık sunan kedim Bıdık'a minnettarlığımı sunarım; onların sevgisi, anlayışı ve desteği olmasaydı bu tez tamamlanamazdı. Ayrıca bu tez yazım sürecinde beni motive eden, fikir veren ve desteklerini esirgemeyen başta Arş.Gör.İlayda YILDIRIM olmak üzere arkadaşlarıma da teşekkür ederim.

This article examines the recent conflict between the Ciise and Gadabuursi communities in western Somaliland and the government’s response through the nationalization of clan militias. It argues that the strategy adopted by the Somaliland Government reflects a broader effort to consolidate state authority, monopolize the use of force, and promote long-term stability. Drawing on state-building theory and conflict management frameworks, the study highlights both the opportunities and challenges of integrating non-state armed actors into formal security institutions. While the initiative offers a pathway toward reconciliation and institutional strengthening, its success depends on effective implementation, community trust, and sustained collaboration with traditional leaders. The article concludes that although progress has been made, the situation remains fragile and requires continued political commitment.

This assessment examines the 2026 conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran as a multi-layered system of controlled escalation rather than a conventional interstate war. The analysis focuses on the interaction between direct military action, proxy engagement, and economic pressure mechanisms, with particular emphasis on the role of fragmented regional environments such as Iraq. The paper argues that the conflict persists not primarily due to strategic deadlock, but due to distributed incentive structures across state and non-state actors that sustain low-intensity engagement. Proxy networks, deterrence signalling, and energy system vulnerability combine to produce a stabilised but volatile equilibrium in which escalation is frequent but strategically bounded. Using a structured predictive logic approach, the assessment identifies escalation drivers, stabilising constraints, and observable indicators that define the operational boundaries of the conflict system. The findings suggest that absent coordinated shifts across proxy control mechanisms, deterrence thresholds, and economic pressure regimes, the system will remain in a cycle of managed instability with episodic escalation spikes rather than transition toward resolution.

This article analyzes the structural transformation of the Islamic Republic following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the rapid succession of Mojtaba Khamenei. It argues that while the regime demonstrated institutional resilience by avoiding collapse, this continuity conceals a decisive shift in the internal balance of power. The post-Khamenei order is increasingly defined by the ascendancy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), marking a transition from clerically mediated authority to a security-dominated state. The succession reflects not the consolidation of personal legitimacy, but the system’s reliance on coercive institutions to maintain cohesion under wartime pressure. Situating this shift within a broader geopolitical context, the article highlights competing external strategies toward Iran and underscores how internal restructuring intersects with sustained external pressure. It concludes that Iran’s future trajectory will depend on the interaction between elite cohesion, societal strain, and long-term strategic containment.

The article is devoted to the issues of classification of military conflicts. First, the term military conflict and its types: war and armed conflicts are clarified. Then, a classification of military conflicts is carried out according to various criteria: the purpose of the conflict, theater, scale, forces and means involved, conflict spectrum, etc. The priority in the classification is given to typology, since the problem of systematics and taxonomy of conflicts remains undeveloped. Typology classifies conflicts according to their main characteristics. In modern times, the leadership in this direction undoubtedly belongs to Western, especially US researchers. This is explained by the fact that after the Cold War, the US Armed Forces used more military force in various hot regions of the world. Typology cannot be considered a completely stable type of classification. There are many controversial points. As an example, it is enough to note the differences in the views of Western and Russian researchers on the classification of war generations. In general, it is difficult to say that a perfect classification system will be created until the systematics and taxonomy of military conflicts are developed.

The internationalization of intrastate conflicts has become a defining trend in 21st-century organized violence, marked by external actors providing militarily relevant support-such as troops, arms, or intelligence-to domestic warring parties. While research examines various dimensions of this phenomenon, systematic analysis of macro-level trends and their drivers remains limited. This article addresses this gap through three contributions. First, it introduces a network-based framework to conceptualize forms of internationalization and identify potential explanations. Second, it demonstrates empirically that intrastate conflicts have indeed become more internationalized across multiple measures. Third, it synthesizes research to identify and evaluate likely drivers of this trend. The study provides the first systematic framework for understanding internationalization as a network phenomenon and establishes a foundation for future research on external involvement in civil wars. By unifying fragmented research through a coherent analytical lens, the article advances both theoretical and empirical understanding of contemporary conflict dynamics.

This article analyzes the strategic turning point in U.S. policy toward Iran following the failure of initial decapitation assumptions. It argues that the Islamic Republic’s institutional depth has prevented collapse, transforming the conflict into a broader regional and global security challenge centered on energy flows and maritime stability. The piece outlines three strategic pathways—deescalation, escalation toward regime change, and prolonged attrition—highlighting the risks inherent in each. It further examines the emerging divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic priorities and warns against policy drift in the absence of a clear political end-state.

Fulfilling a campaign promise, on May 8, 2018, President Trump announced the United States will withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and begin reinstating economic sanctions on Tehran...

It is a first step in a policy to roll back, then a contain Iranian influence in the Middle East.

This objective was introduced in his statement withdrawing the United States from that agreement. President Trump declared: The deal lifted crippling economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for very weak limits on the regime’s nuclear activity, and no limits at all on its other malign behavior, including its sinister activities in Syria, Yemen, and other places all around the world."

İran İslam Cumhuriyeti'nin 1979 İslam Devrimi'nden bu yana kademeli olarak inşa ettiği, genişlettiği ve entegre ettiği vekalet savaşları ağı, modern uluslararası ilişkiler ve güvenlik çalışmaları alanındaki en karmaşık asimetrik savaş mekanizmalarından birini temsil etmektedir. Ortadoğu'nun geleneksel çatışma bölgelerinden küresel siber uzayın dijital cephelerine kadar uzanan bu devasa ağ, devlet dışı silahlı aktörlerin (DDSA) egemen bir devletin ulusal güvenlik doktrininin organik bir uzantısı olarak kullanılmasının zirve noktasıdır. Proxy (vekalet) savaşı, uluslararası ilişkilerde devletlerin doğrudan bir askeri çatışmaya girmeden hedeflerine ulaşmak amacıyla dolaylı yollardan çatışmaları başlatması ve yönlendirmesi olarak tanımlanmaktadır.1 Ancak İran örneğinde bu strateji, salt bir dış politika aracı olmanın çok ötesine geçerek; rejimin bekasını sağlayan, ideolojik ihracatı kolaylaştıran ve bölgesel hegemonya arayışını asimetrik bir düzlemde meşrulaştıran çok katmanlı bir hayatta kalma doktrinine dönüşmüştür.2

This report comprehensively analyzes the fundamental power shift in the Middle East during 2023-2025. It examines the permanent collapse of the proxy power model, the dismantling of Iran's Axis of Resistance network, and Israel's rise to active regional power status backed by unwavering U.S. support. The report argues that for Turkey to emerge as a winner from this transformation, it must pursue a simultaneous and integrated strategy across five axes: Africa strategy, Israel balancing policy, Syria and Iraq border security, and the Eastern Mediterranean. The core thesis: Turkey's security does not begin at its own borders but in Damascus, Baghdad, Jerusalem, Tabriz, and Nicosia.

Bu rapor, 2023-2025 döneminde Ortadoğu'da yaşanan köklü güç kayması sürecini kapsamlı biçimde analiz etmekte; bölgenin yeni mimarisinin temel parametrelerini ortaya koymakta ve Türkiye'nin bu dönüşümde üstlenebileceği stratejik rolü somut politika önerileriyle birlikte sunmaktadır.

Under what conditions do proxy wars spiral into direct interstate wars? This paper develops a fully solvable equilibrium model that predicts the precise tension threshold T* at which proxy-sponsored conflict transitions into interstate war, and validates the model against six historical cases from the Iran-Israel

This study investigates the economic dynamics of sanctions evasion through proxy networks, examining whether Iranian proxy groups—including Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and Ansar Allah (Houthis)—function as economic pressure release valves that systematically diffuse the impact of international sanctions. Despite decades of increasingly comprehensive economic sanctions culminating in the "maximum pressure" campaign of 2018, Iran has demonstrated remarkable economic resilience without making the comprehensive policy concessions that sanctioning powers have sought. This study employs a mixed-methods approach integrating interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), panel data regression with fixed effects, network analysis of U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designations, and qualitative policy analysis to examine the relationship between sanctions intensity, proxy presence, and economic outcomes across Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon from 2010 to 2024. Drawing on data from 898 OFAC sanctions designations, UN Comtrade trade statistics, IMF and World Bank economic indicators, and ACLED conflict data, the analysis reveals that major sanctions events produce significant immediate negative shocks to Iran's GDP growth—approximately 4 percentage points following the 2012 EU oil embargo and 10 percentage points following the 2018 maximum pressure campaign—yet evidence of subsequent adaptation suggests the development of resilience mechanisms. The sanctions-proxy interaction term, while not statistically significant due to sample size limitations, is consistently positive across model specifications, providing directional support for the pressure release valve hypothesis. Network analysis reveals that the 2018 campaign produced more sanctions designations (435) than all previous years combined, indicating unprecedented escalation. This dissertation contributes to theory by proposing a Pressure Diffusion Model that conceptualizes proxy networks as mechanisms for redistributing concentrated economic pressure across regional economies, thereby reducing the marginal political cost of sanctions on the target regime. The findings have significant implications for sanctions design, counter-proliferation policy, and understanding the economic dimensions of proxy warfare in contemporary international relations.

While grand strategy can be a useful instrument to organize the national security bureaucracy effectively, grand strategy can also be a poor guide for effective policy formation. Grand strategy is incredibly useful for organizing the national security apparatus because it clarifies conventional threats and mobilizes national security against a defined threat. However, grand strategy is a poor guide for policymaking because it concentrates too much on a militarized threat to the nation at the expense of other emerging domestic and international issues. Policy formation requires flexibility to meet other threats to the nation’s security during and after the “big threat” dissipates, making grand strategy a very important instrument with tradeoffs in mind. 18th century France and Cold War America will exemplify the benefits and issues with grand strategy to bolster the points mentioned.

Iran’s employment of proxy militant organizations has profoundly shaped the geopolitical and economic dynamics of the Middle East, but a thorough analysis of its economic consequences has not been sufficiently addressed. This paper undertakes a systematic literature review to synthesize existing research on the economic effects of Iranian proxy militant groups, aiming to fill gaps in the present knowledge about how these entities influence regional economies. We focus on four key dimensions: Iran’s proxy warfare strategies and operations, its proxy networks and alliances, the impact of proxy activities on regional stability, and other emergent themes. By systematically analyzing peer-reviewed studies, policy reports, and gray literature, we identify patterns, contradictions, and unresolved questions in the discourse. The analysis indicates that Iranian proxy groups produce diverse economic impacts, such as the disruption of local markets, the redirection of resources into conflict, and the establishment of informal economies linked to illegal operations. However, the literature also highlights instances where these groups inadvertently foster economic resilience in certain communities through patronage networks. The results highlight the necessity for a more refined approach to evaluate the economic impacts of proxy conflicts, especially concerning sustained growth and regional cohesion. We conclude by proposing directions for future research and highlight the necessity of interdisciplinary methods to unravel the intricate relationship between proxy militancy and economic outcomes.

The Arab Spring significantly impacted North Africa and the Middle East, with uprisings continuing since 2010. While most countries have completed the process and implemented substantial changes in response to demands for freedom, democracy, and human rights, the Syrian uprisings have led to a prolonged civil war, devastating the nation. This conflict has drawn the involvement of global powers and regional states, transforming it into a multifaceted crisis with far-reaching implications for regional stability. This thesis seeks to investigate the complexities of the ongoing conflict in Syria by analyzing the political and economic interests of countries from non-regional state actors such as the United States and Russia. It also delves into the roles of regional state actors in the broader Middle East, including Turkey and Iran, while considering the impact of non-state actors such as the Free Syrian Army, Kurdish groups, and terrorist organizations like the Islamic State (ISIS). Through a comprehensive analysis of these policies based on national interests, the thesis aims to provide a thorough understanding of the conflict's various dimensions. The study aims to provide a more accurate analysis of the Syrian conflict by focusing on the turbulent period between 2014 and 2020, examining this era within the context of strategic competition between regional and non-regional state actors.

Keywords: Strategy, The United States, Russia, Competition, Middle East, Syria*

*This thesis was defended on November 25, 2024, two days before Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's start of its rapid operation, which led to the capture of Damascus and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's Syrian Regime within 12 days. This further underlined the evolving complex strategic factors of the Syrian conflict.

Maqaalkani Waxa uu is dultaagayaa abaabulkii saddexda bilood ee ka aloosnaa Awdal iyo Selel iyo halka uu salka ku hayo; iyo in uuna wax badan ka duwananayn abaabulkii dagaalkii Laascaanood. Waxa uu qoraalkani iftiiminayaa in ay kooxo wakaaladeed ay qalalaasaha Saylac iyo Boorama soo wadeen in muddo ah oo gaadhaysa illaa Isafgaradkii Hargeisa iyo Addis Ababa ee sannadkii hore (MoU 2024). Qoraalkani waxa uu 'Xiisadda Saylac' ka eegayaa dhawr weji oo ay ka mid yihiin in ayna ahayn dhacdooyin si kediso u dhacaya balse ay tahay wax abaabulan oo ujeeddaysan; in ay goobtani ahayd sooyaalka fog iyo kii dhawaa ee ay Somaliland soo martayba meel lagu loollamo oo la is damco, ayna ku jiraan jilayaal gudeed, kuwo dawladaha gobolka iyo kuwo adduunkaba leh; in Somaliland bilowgii ay muujisay ballamo, go'aanno iyo hakin aan sugnayn, taas oo u muuqatay in aan xog hufan lagu go'aan qaadanin. Ugu dambayn, qoraalkani waxa uu ku doodayaa in xiisadda Saylac ay tahay labadaran 'Dilemma' ay wajahayso Somaliland, sida oo kalena uu yahay caqabad hor leh oo teed ku noqon karta xasilloonida gudeed, ifafaalayaasha soo muuqday ee horumarinta kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha ee gobolka iyo guud ahaan geeddisocodka dawladnimo ee Somaliland.

Wprowadzenie: Cieszymy się, że możemy skierować do Państwa rąk kolejny numer periodyku „Bezpieczeństwo.Teoria i Praktyka”, tym razem poświęcony problematyce stabilizacji i odbudowy obszarów pokonfliktowych w XXI w. Podjęty temat jest niezwykle ważny, ponieważ żyjemy w czasach nieuporządkowanego świata, w którym liczba konfliktów zbrojnych o różnej skali i charakterze oraz wynikające z nich konsekwencje wpływają destrukcyjnie na ład międzynarodowy.Umiędzynarodowienie konfliktów wewnętrznych pełni często funkcję instrumentalną w grze, której stawką jest zajęcie przez dane państwo właściwego – z punktu widzenia jego decydentów – miejsca w nowym systemie ról międzynarodowych. Przykładem tego jest wojna domowa w Syrii, którą Jerzy Zdanowski w artykule rozpoczynającym tom traktuje jako „wojnę zastępczą”. Krótko przedstawia także istotę rekonstrukcji obszarów pokonfliktowych, czym jako badacz rozwija myśli pułkownika Piotra Gąstała, wieloletniego żołnierza i dowódcy Jednostki Wojskowej GRO...

Bu çalışma, Sovyetler Birliği’nin Afganistan’ı işgalini vekalet savaşları, yabancı savaşçı olgusu ve mücahit kavramı üzerinden incelemektedir. Çalışmada, 1979-1989 yılları arası dönemi kapsayan Sovyet-Afgan Savaşı dahil yabancı savaşçıların katılım sağladığı geçmiş çatışmalar analiz edilmiş, ulusötesi mücahit gönüllülerin siyasal, dinsel ve sosyolojik motivasyonları araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın temel amacı, Afganistan Savaşı ve mücahitlerinin yabancı savaşçı hareketine kazandırdığı yeni nitelikleri ve sonraki çatışmalara olan etkisini ortaya koymaktır. Bu yönüyle araştırma hem tarihsel sürekliliği hem de modern dönemdeki dönüşümü birlikte değerlendirmesi bakımından önem taşımaktadır. Çalışmada nitel araştırma yöntemi benimsenmiş, karşılaştırmalı analiz teknikleri ile doküman ve vaka analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, Afganistan Savaşı’nın transnasyonel cihatçı ağların oluşumunda kritik bir rol oynadığını ve sonraki savaşlarda ideolojik, örgütsel ve lojistik açıdan model teşkil ettiğini göstermektedir. Afganistan, dünyanın birçok ülkesinden gelen radikal görüşlere sahip “mücahitler” için bir birleşme noktası olmuş ve El Kaide oluşumunun zeminini hazırlamıştır. Ayrıca bu dönemin Sovyetler Birliği ve ABD arasında gerçekleşen soğuk bir “vekalet savaşı” üzerinden de okunması gerektiği ortaya konmuştur. Sonuç olarak, Afgan mücahitlerle büyük bir dönüşüme uğrayan yabancı savaşçı olgusu yalnızca güvenlik politikalarıyla açıklanamayacak kadar çok boyutlu bir nitelik taşımakta; sosyo-politik, ekonomik ve dini unsurların kesişiminde şekillenmektedir.

This study examines the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan through the lens of proxy wars, the phenomenon of foreign fighters, and the concept of mujahideen. The study analysed past conflicts involving foreign fighters, including the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989, and investigated the political, religious, and sociological motivations of transnational mujahideen volunteers. The principal aim of the study is to reveal the new characteristics introduced by the Afghanistan War and its mujahideen into the foreign fighter movement, and to examine their impact on subsequent conflicts. In this respect, the research is notable for its combined evaluation of historical continuity and modern transformation. The qualitative research method was adopted in the study; comparative analysis techniques and document and case analysis methods were used. The findings demonstrate that the Afghanistan War played a crucial role in the formation of transnational jihadist networks and served as a model for subsequent wars in ideological, organizational, and logistical terms. Afghanistan became a meeting point for radical “mujahideen” from many countries around the world, and laid the groundwork for the formation of al-Qaeda. It has also been shown that this period should be interpreted through the lens of a cold “proxy war” between the Soviet Union and the United States. In conclusion, the phenomenon of foreign fighters, which has undergone a major transformation with Afghan mujahideen, is multidimensional and cannot be explained solely by security policies; it is shaped at the intersection of socio-political, economic, and religious elements.

RESENSI MODUL AGENDA I LATSAR CPNS
Merajut Jati Diri ASN: Sikap Perilaku Bela Negara
Oleh : Dewi Anjar Mastrin
Menjadi seorang Aparatur Sipil Negara (ASN) di era modern bukan sekadar urusan administrasi, status pekerjaan atau jaminan hari tua. Di balik tanggung jawab itu, terdapat fondasi filosofis dan praktis yang harus kokoh. Fondasi tersebut terangkum jelas dalam tiga modul utama Pelatihan Dasar CPNS Modul Agenda I yaitu : Wawasan Kebangsaan, Analisis Isu Kontemporer, dan Kesiapsiagaan Bela Negara.

1. Mengenali Akar: Wawasan Kebangsaan dan Nilai-Nilai Bela Negara
Perjalanan seorang ASN dimulai dengan memahami siapa dirinya sebagai bagian dari bangsa. Bab pertama ini mengajak kita kembali ke sejarah perjuangan bangsa Indonesia. Mulai dari berdirinya Boedi Oetomo (1908), Perhimpunan Indonesia, Sumpah Pemuda (1928) hinggga menjelaskan detik-detik Proklamasi Kemerdekaan. Wawasan Kebangsaan sendiri didefinisikan sebagai cara pandang yang dilandasi kesadaran akan sistem nasional yang bersumber dari empat konsensus dasar: Pancasila, UUD 1945, NKRI, dan Bhinneka Tunggal Ika.
Tanpa pemahaman yang kuat terhadap simbol-simbol negara seperti Bendera Merah Putih, Bahasa Indonesia, Lambang Negara dan Lagu Kebangsaan, seorang ASN akan kehilangan jati dirinya. Bab ini menegaskan bahwa Indonesia adalah tempat meleburnya berbagai perbedaan menjadi identitas tunggal yang kuat seperti dalam semboyan Bhinneka Tunggal Ika.
Di era modern, membela negara tidak selalu berarti berperang di medan laga. Bela Negara didefinisikan sebagai tekad, sikap, dan perilaku setiap warga negara dalam menjaga kedaulatan dan keselamatan bangsa yang dijiwai oleh cinta tanah air. Nilai-nilai dasarnya sangat aplikatif untuk kehidupan sehari-hari, meliputi:
1. Cinta Tanah Air: Mengetahui dan melestarikan kekayaan nusantara.
2. Sadar Berbangsa dan Bernegara: Menjalankan hak dan kewajiban sesuai peraturan yang berlaku.
3. Setia pada Pancasila: Mengamalkan nilai-nilai luhur dalam berpikir dan bertindak.
4. Rela Berkorban: Mendahulukan kepentingan bangsa di atas kepentingan pribadi atau golongan.
5. Kemampuan Awal Bela Negara : Aspek jasmani dan rohani sebagai modal dasar untuk mengabdi.

Wawasan Kebangsaan dan Nilai Dasar Bela Negara melahirkan sebuah Sistem Administrasi Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia (SANKRI) yang berlandasan idiil yaitu Pancasila landasan konstitusionil , UUD 1945 sebagai sistem yang mewadahi peran Aparatur Sipil Negara (ASN). Berdasarkan UU No.5 Tahun 2014 tentang Peran Aparatur Sipil Negara, yaitu:
1. Pelaksana Kebijakan Publik: Melaksanakan kebijakan yang ditetapkan oleh Pejabat Pembina Kepegawaian sesuai dengan ketentuan peraturan perundang-undangan.
2. Pelayan Publik: Memberikan pelayanan publik yang profesional dan berkualitas kepada masyarakat.
3. Perekat dan Pemersatu Bangsa: Mempererat persatuan dan kesatuan Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia (NKRI).

2. Menghadapi Badai: Analisis Isu Kontemporer
Setelah memahami jati diri, ASN dihadapkan pada realitas perubahan lingkungan strategis yang penuh ketidakpastian. Bab kedua ini membedah "isu-isu" modern yang mengancam kedaulatan bangsa, mulai dari korupsi, narkoba, hingga terorisme dan radikalisme.
Menariknya, bab ini tidak hanya menyajikan masalah, tetapi juga membekali ASN dengan "modal insani" seperti modal intelektual, emosional, sosial, ketabahan, moral, dan kesehatan jasmani, untuk melakukan analisis mendalam. ASN dituntut memiliki kemampuan berpikir kritis dan mampu menggunakan teknik analisis isu guna memberikan solusi terbaik bagi publik di tengah gempuran proxy war dan tantangan globalisasi. Isu-isu strategis kontemporer diantaranya;
1. Korupsi : Korupsi sering kali muncul dalam bentuk gratifikasi, suap, hingga penyalahgunaan wewenang demi keuntungan pribadi atau golongan.
2. Narkoba : Narkoba dipandang sebagai ancaman terhadap keberlangsungan generasi bangsa (lost generation).
3. Paham Radikalisme/Terorisme : Radikalisme adalah paham yang menginginkan perubahan sosial-politik dengan cara kekerasan dan ekstrem
4. Money Laundry : Upaya menyembunyikan atau menyamarkan asal-usul harta kekayaan yang diperoleh dari tindak pidana agar seolah-olah berasal dari kegiatan yang sah. Modusnya semakin canggih, melibatkan transaksi keuangan lintas negara (transnasional) dan penggunaan teknologi finansial.
5. Proxy War : Konfrontasi antar dua kekuatan besar melalui pihak ketiga (non-negara atau negara kecil). Di Indonesia, perang ini tidak menggunakan senjata api, melainkan melalui isu separatisme, demonstrasi anarkis, provokasi media, hingga persaingan ekonomi untuk menguasai sumber daya alam.
6. Kejahatan Komunikasi Masal
Kejahatan ini memanfaatkan teknologi informasi dan media sosial sebagai senjata utamanya:
• Cyber Crime: Serangan terhadap sistem komputer atau pencurian data secara ilegal.
Terdapat beberapa jenis cyber crime yang dapat kita
golongkan berdasarkan aktivitas yang dilakukannya seperti
dijelaskan berikut ini yang dirangkum dari berbagai sumber.
a. Unauthorized Access
Ini merupakan kejahatan memasuki atau menyusup ke dalam suatu sistem jaringan komputer secara tidak sah, tanpa izin, atau tanpa sepengetahuan dari pemilik sistem jaringan komputer yang dimasukinya.
b. Illegal Contents
Kejahatan ini dilakukan dengan cara memasukkan data atau informasi ke internet tentang suatu hal yang tidak benar, tidak etis, dan dapat dianggap sebagai melanggar hukum atau menggangu ketertiban pada masyarakat umum, contohnya adalah penyebaran pornografi atau berita yang tidak benar.
c. Penyebaran virus
Penyebaran virus pada umumnya dilakukan dengan menggunakan sebuah email atau media lainnya guna melakukan penyusupan, perusakan atau pencurian data.
d. Cyber Espionage, Sabotage, and Extortion
Cyber Espionage merupakan sebuah kejahatan dengan cara memanfaatkan jaringan internet untuk melakukan kegiatan mata-mata terhadap pihak lain, dengan memasuki system jaringan komputer pihak sasaran. Sabotage and Extortion merupakan jenis kejahatan yang dilakukan dengan membuat gangguan, perusakan atau penghancuran terhadap suatu data, program komputer atau sistem jaringan komputer yang terhubung dengan internet.
e. Carding
Carding merupakan kejahatan yang dilakukan untuk mencuri nomor kartu kredit milik orang lain dan digunakan dalam transaksi perdagangan di internet.
f. Hacking dan Cracker
Hacking adalah kegiatan untuk mempelajari sistem computer secara detail sampai bagaimana menerobos sistem yang dipelajari tersebut. Aktivitas cracking di internet memiliki lingkup yang sangat luas, mulai dari pembajakan account milik orang lain, pembajakan situs web, probing, menyebarkan virus, hingga pelumpuhan target sasaran.
g. Cybersquatting and Typosquatting
Cybersquatting merupakan sebuah kejahatan yang dilakukan dengan cara mendaftarkan domain nama perusahaan orang lain dan kemudian berusaha menjualnya kepada Perusahaan tersebut dengan harga yang lebih mahal. Sedangkan typosquatting adalah kejahatan dengan membuat domain plesetan yaitu domain yang mirip dengan nama domain orang lain.
h. Cyber Terorism
Tindakan cybercrime termasuk cyber terorism yang mengancam pemerintah atau kepentingan orang banyak, termasuk cracking ke situs resmi pemerintah atau militer.
• Hate Speech (Ujaran Kebencian): Provokasi atau hinaan terhadap suku, agama, ras, dan antargolongan (SARA).
• Hoax (Berita Bohong): Informasi yang direkayasa untuk menutupi informasi sebenarnya dengan tujuan memicu kepanikan atau kebencian.

Dalam memecahkan isu tersebut dilakukan dengan analisis teknik tapisan, selanjutnya dilakukan analisis secara mendalam isu yang telah memenuhi kriteria AKPK atau USG atau teknik tapisan lainnya dengan menggunakan alat bantu dengan teknik berpikir kritis, misalnya menggunakan system berpikir seperti : mind mapping, fishbone, SWOT, tabel frekuensi, analisis kesenjangan, atau sekurangnya-kurangnya menerapkan kemampuan berpikir hubungan sebab-akibat untuk menggambarkan akar dari isu atau permasalahan, aktor dan peran aktor, dan alternatif pemecahan isu yang akan diusulkan.
Berikut penjelasan alat bantu analisis isu :
1. Mind Mapping: Memetakan "Hutan" Pikiran
Mind mapping adalah teknik visualisasi yang meniru cara kerja otak kita: menyebar ke segala arah. Cara kerja: Tulis isu utama di tengah kertas, lalu tarik cabang-cabang untuk ide atau kategori terkait. Keunggulan: Sangat efektif untuk brainstorming awal. Anda bisa melihat gambaran besar (big picture) sekaligus detail terkecil tanpa kehilangan fokus.
2. Fishbone Diagram: Mencari "Siapa" Biang Keroknya
Disebut juga diagram Ishikari atau tulang ikan. Teknik ini digunakan untuk mencari hubungan sebab-akibat. Cara kerja: Kepala ikan berisi "Masalah Utama". Tulang-tulangnya berisi kategori penyebab, biasanya menggunakan kerangka 6M (Manpower, Method, Machine, Material, Measurement, Mother Nature). Keunggulan: Membantu Anda berhenti menyalahkan permukaan dan mulai menemukan akar masalah (root cause).
3. Analisis SWOT: Kompas Strategi
SWOT adalah singkatan dari Strengths (Kekuatan), Weaknesses (Kelemahan), Opportunities (Peluang), dan Threats (Ancaman). Cara kerja: Anda membagi faktor menjadi dua dimensi: Internal (S & W) dan Eksternal (O & T). Keunggulan: Membantu Anda mengambil keputusan strategis. Strategi yang baik adalah menggunakan Kekuatan untuk mengambil Peluang, sambil memitigasi Kelemahan agar tidak dimakan oleh Ancaman.
4. Tabel Frekuensi: Berbicara dengan Data
Jika alat lain bersifat kualitatif (narasi), tabel frekuensi bersifat kuantitatif (angka). Cara kerja: Menyusun data mentah ke dalam kategori tertentu untuk melihat seberapa sering suatu kejadian muncul. Keunggulan: Memberikan bukti nyata. Misalnya, jika Anda ingin membuktikan bahwa isu "Hoax" lebih gawat dibanding "Cyber Crime", tabel frekuensi akan menunjukkan angka kejadian yang bicara.
5. Analisis Kesenjangan (Gap Analysis): Jembatan Menuju Ideal
Analisis ini membandingkan antara kondisi saat ini (Where we are) dengan kondisi yang diharapkan (Where we want to be). Cara kerja: Identifikasi celah (...

Researchers conducting investigations in the U.S. archives are aware of the immense scale of documents. T hanks to the ongoing and significant endeavor to declassify information in conjunction with the implementation of the Freedom of Information Act, new information arose about the U.S. role in coups worldwide. Matthew Connelly’s study, The Declassification Engine: What History Reveals about America’s Top Secrets, explores the intricacies of how this procedure is executed with delicate balances.

En una Libia ninguneada por la prensa internacional, el asesinato de Ghaniwa, señor de la guerra libio, ha generado una nueva situación. Aunque el magnicidio aparenta el principio del fin del reinado del «Cártel de Trípoli», el país sigue dividido en dos mitades: Dbeibah
controla Tripolitania y Hafter Cirenaica. El entramado de intereses ha creado una situación de una complejidad extrema.

En un Oriente Próximo convulso e inestable, las potencias globales y regionales ocupan las posiciones principales en el tablero geopolítico. Sin embargo, entre las sombras de gigantes como Turquía, Irán, Arabia Saudí o Israel, se esconde el sigiloso y pragmático Egipto de Abdelfatah el-Sisi. 
Además de su enorme peso demográfico y su poderío militar, Egipto posee una de las economías más grandes de África y controla el estratégico canal de Suez, un punto clave para el comercio global. Su capacidad de mediación internacional se ve reforzada por su habilidad para mantener relaciones con actores enfrentados, como Estados Unidos y Rusia o Israel y Palestina. Asimismo, ha incrementado su influencia en conflictos regionales como los de Libia, Sudán y Somalia. No obstante, enfrenta desafíos significativos, como la amenaza del islamismo de los Hermanos Musulmanes, un elevado nivel de endeudamiento con el FMI, la disputa con Etiopía por el control del río Nilo y una crisis económica que alimenta el descontento social.

In light of the latest wave of anti-regime protests in Iran and the intensifying debate among policymakers, security analysts, and regional specialists, in this article I offer a provocative re-examination of a core assumption in contemporary strategic studies: that stability in authoritarian contexts necessarily precedes democratization. Drawing on historical patterns from the broader Middle East, I argue that without an authentic democratic transition, the collapse of Iran’s current regime could precipitate fragmentation, protracted conflict, and greater vulnerabilities for Western interests — outcomes that may surpass the strategic burden posed by the status quo. By reframing a democratic Iran not as an idealistic aspiration but as a potential strategic asset, I raise critical questions about legitimacy, regional order, and the long-term balance of power. I’m sharing this with the community to invite expert perspectives on the viability of democratic transition in authoritarian contexts, the risks of post-regime fragmentation, and the implications for regional and global security architecture. What frameworks should inform our understanding of “order” versus “legitimacy” in such high-stakes geopolitical crossroads? Please share your thoughts.

In dit PWS onderzoeken we de rol van grootmachten in proxy-oorlogen van drie ‘koude oorlog’ oorlogen. Hierin analyseren we de rol van de grootmacht en waaruit de rol bestaat. Ook onderzoeken we een hedendaags conflict en de rol van grootmachten in dat conflict. Deze uitslagen van deze casussen zijn in een modelweergave afgebeeld, die in dit onderzoek ontwikkeld is. Het model is gebaseerd op de definitie: “Proxy oorlog is de indirect betrokkenheid in een conflict door een derde partij die hopen de strategische uitkomst hiervan te beïnvloeden. Proxy oorlogen bestaan uit een relatie tussen een benefactor, die een staat of niet-statelijke partij buiten de oorspronkelijke dynamiek van het conflict is, en hun gekozen proxy’s die dienen als doorvoer route voor wapens, training en financiering”.                                                                              De motieven voor de grootmachten bestaat meestal uit één van de twee motieven:                          1. Als er in een specifieke oorlog wel vitale belangen op het spel staan, worden de risico’s van direct militair ingrijpen als te hoog ingeschat.                                                                                                            2. Door gebruikt te maken van een proxy kan een crisis correct worden beheerd zodat directe militaire interventie kan worden vermeden.                                                                                                            De casussen bestaan uit: Koreaoorlog, Vietnamoorlog, Afghaanse oorlog en als hedendaags conflict nemen we het Oekraïne conflict vanaf de 2022 invasie. Hieruit blijkt dat in de Koreaoorlog en de Vietnamoorlog de Sovjet-Unie – voornamelijk – als benefactor werkte. Terwijl in de Afghaanse oorlog en Oekraïense oorlog de Sovjet-Unie direct op het front betrokken was. Voor de VS was de rol in deze conflicten juist het antoniem. De VS was in Korea en Vietnam direct betrokken, en juist in Afghanistan en Oekraïne alleen als benefactor. De rollen zijn dus zeker veranderd, en zelfs volledig omgedraaid – binnen de onderzochten casussen

This paper explores the dynamics of proxy warfare in the 21st century through the lens of political economy, emphasizing the intersection between local conflicts and global strategic interests. As major powers increasingly avoid direct military confrontation, they turn to indirect engagement by supporting local actors/militias, insurgents, and governments in various conflict zones. Using case studies from Syria, Yemen, Libya, Ukraine, and the Sahel region, the study critically examines the motivations behind proxy warfare, including geopolitical rivalry, access to natural resources, ideological influence, and strategic deterrence. It further analyses the economic mechanisms that sustain these conflicts, such as arms trading, illicit financing, and war economies. By revealing the often-hidden global stakes in local conflicts, the paper underscores the urgent need for stronger international accountability, regional peacebuilding frameworks, and citizen awareness. Understanding the political economy of proxy warfare is vital not only for policymakers and scholars but for all global citizens committed to peace, justice, and responsible international engagement.

Askeri savaşlar; yüksek maliyetleri, toplum üzerinde yarattıkları derin travmalar ve uzun vadeli demografik etkileri nedeniyle günümüzde son seçenek hâline gelmiştir. Hâlen bir caydırıcılık unsuru olarak varlıklarını sürdürseler de, zorunlu olmadıkça askeri müdahaleye başvurulmamaktadır. Buna karşılık, kökleri geçmişe dayanan ancak son yıllarda dünya genelinde sistematik biçimde test edilen askeri olmayan savaş yöntemleri, yani sessiz savaşlar, yeni çağın en etkili mücadele araçlarından biri hâline gelmiştir.

İsrail’in, 1976 ve 2016 yıllarında sınır ötesinde yürüttüğü iki stratejik angajmanın adlarının Mending Wall’un “İyi çitler, (insanları) iyi komşular yapar!” önermesini hatırlatır şekilde seçilmesi pek de tesadüf gibi görünmemektedir. Keza İsrail’in 1976 yılında Lübnan iç savaşına müdahalesi sırasında yürüttüğü “İyi Çit Politikası”nın stratejik arka planı ile 2016 sonrasında Suriye’de yürüttüğü “İyi Komşuluk Operasyonu” dâhilindeki faaliyetler arasında yöntem ve strateji açısından net bir paralellik olduğunu ifade etmek mümkündür. Esasen İsrail’in Suriye dosyası, “sınır güvenliği”nin merkezî teşkil ettiği dar bir teknik alanın ötesinde, ulusal güvenliğini temin çabalarının insani yardımlar ve kendi azınlıkları üzerinden Suriye’nin güneyine ihracı üzerine kurgulanan çok katmanlı bir sınır-ötesi mühendislik projesidir. 2011 sonrasında ortaya çıkan, örtülü angajmandan hedefe yönelik düşük görünürlüklü saldırılara, insani yardımlar üzerinden müzahir topluluklar inşa ederek olası bir askerî müdahaleye meşruiyet üretme çabasından devrim sonrasında uygulanan açık askerî baskıya uzanan dalgalanmalar, aynı stratejik çizginin farklı yoğunluklarda icra edilmiş halkalarıdır.

bu halka açık konferansında, savaş meselelerinde artık büyüklerimizin bilmediği tuhaf bir dünyada yaşadığımızı öne sürüyor. 20. yüzyılın Soğuk Savaşı'ndan ve yakın zamanda konuşulan 2. Soğuk Savaş'tan son derecede farklı bir dünyadayız. Tahrip edici meta savaşlar çağındayız. Günümüzde dijital iletişim teknolojileri, yalnızca Hellfire hassas güdümlü havadan yere füzeler ve düşman uydularının kontrolünü ele geçirebilen karmaşık siber silahlar gibi savaş yöntemlerini ve silahlarını ürkütücü bir şekilde geliştirmekle kalmıyor; aynı zamanda, paradoksal bir şekilde, savaşın medyadaki temsillerini de biçimlendiriyor. Hükümetlerin, askeri halkla ilişkiler propagandacılarının, son dakika habercilerinin, askerlerin ve vatandaşların oluşturduğu bu değişen medya temsilleri, savaşları adeta bir "oyun" gibi sunarak, savaşın dehşetini estetize etmekte ve milyonlarca insanı, kan, zulüm ve soykırım boyutundaki yıkımlardan arındırılmış gibi görünen bu savaşlara karşı kayıtsızlığa itmektedir. Özellikle Atlantik bölgesinin eski demokrasilerinde bu yeni meta savaşları, toplumsal kayıtsızlık, duygusal kopukluk ve kendi meşguliyetleriyle boğulmuş insanların umursamazlık hislerini beslemektedir. Ancak bu toplumsal kayıtsızlığın karşısında meta savaşlar çağına özgü bir karşı çıkış da mevcuttur. Bu karşı çıkış, isyancı gazetecilerin bu savaşların korkunç gerçeklerini dijital olarak açığa çıkardığı, onların ahlaki ve pratik gerekliliklerini sorguladığı ve dünyanın her yerindeki sivillere meta savaşlara maruz kalmak zorunda olmadıklarını, hatta bir gün savaşın her türünün ortadan kaldırılmasının zorunlu olacağı bir zamanın geleceğini öğrettiği yeni medya platformlarının doğuşudur. Prof. Keane'in bu dersini Özümsu Alagöz'ün çevirisiyle Türk iletişim akademisinin ilgisine sunmaktan memnuniyet duyarız.

The need for regional alignments or alliances between large and small states has continued to influence international politics in recent decades. It has also given rise to the Gulf regional crisis which has largely become an increasingly important aspect of contemporary international political relations. The purpose of this article is to interrogate Iran-Qatar relations and the Gulf regional crisis, using the concept of balance of power as an analytical framework, and data from secondary sources. It argues that despite the economic blockade on Qatar, there has been improved relations between Qatar and Iran and more direct communication between officials of the two countries. However, the article concludes that the blockade imposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) might further strengthen Iran-Qatar relations in the long run through the foreign policy taken by Qatar to normalize relations with Iran. This paper recommends that Qatar should constantly ensure proper manupacturing between countries in the Gulf region for Qatar to survive and ensure its national interests are secured