Books by Dan (Daniel) W Williams
Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioners Guide to Government Revenue Analysis
Kavanagh, S., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitio... more Kavanagh, S., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioners Guide to Government Revenue Analysis. Chicago: Government Financial Officers Association.
Budget tools : financial methods in the public sector (Second edition).
Co-authors, Greg Chen and Lynne Weikart
Budget Tools: Financial Methods in the Public Sector
Papers by Dan (Daniel) W Williams
Budget Tools: Financial Methods in the Public Sector
Turning Around the City of Baltimore with Long-Term Forecasting and Scenario Analysis
Kavanagh, S. C., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Turning Around the City of Baltimore with Long-Term Fo... more Kavanagh, S. C., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Turning Around the City of Baltimore with Long-Term Forecasting and Scenario Analysis. National Civic Review, 105(4), 33-39. doi:10.1002/ncr.21295
Williams, D. W., & Kavanagh, S. (2016). Local Government Revenue Forecasting: Competition and Com... more Williams, D. W., & Kavanagh, S. (2016). Local Government Revenue Forecasting: Competition and Comparison. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting, and Financial Management, 28(4), 488-526.
The Status of Budget Forecasting
This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budg... more This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias). Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.
Daniel W. Williams, Thad D. Calabrese
Deja Vu All Over Again: Contemporary Traces of the "Budget Exhibit
The American Review of Public Administration, 2008
Criteria for evaluating revenue options: a comprehensive view
International Journal of Public Administration, 1999
We identify twenty-nine criteria that are proposed for decision makers to use when they consider ... more We identify twenty-nine criteria that are proposed for decision makers to use when they consider revenue measures and classify these criteria into four categories: adequacy, neutrality, consent and fairness. This discussion offers the decision maker help in deciding how to select revenue measures.
2015
Using data of ‘‘member items’’ inNew York State during 2007–2010,we investigate howpolitical fact... more Using data of ‘‘member items’’ inNew York State during 2007–2010,we investigate howpolitical factors
such as majority party affiliation, tenure of service, and legislative leadership affect the distribution of
state earmarked funds. The statistical results suggest that majority party affiliation and tenure of service
have significant effects on the total earmarked funding state legislators may receive each year. Senate
leaders or members of the Assembly Ways and Means Committee can also secure additional earmarks
to fund their community projects. This research fills the gap in literature on subnational earmarking.
This paper aims to show how applying system dynamics
methodology to performance management can pr... more This paper aims to show how applying system dynamics
methodology to performance management can provide a powerful modeling perspective enabling public sector organizations to prevent, detect, and counteract behavioral distortions associated with performance measurement. A dynamic performance management approach is able to support performance management system designers in outlining and implementing a consistent set of measures that can allow public sector decision-makers to pursue sustainable organizational learning and development. This perspective implies a major shift from a static to a dynamic picture of organizational processes and results. It means framing delays between causes and effects, feedback loops, and trade-offs in time and space associated with alternative scenarios. It also means understanding how different policy levers impact the accumulation and depletion of strategic resources over time, and determining how performance drivers affect end results. An exemplar application of this perspective is outlined in relation to municipal crime-control policies. Unintended behavioral consequences generated by the implementation of the CompStat program (New York Police Department) on reward and performance management systems are framed through the “lenses” of dynamic performance management.
Applying System Dynamics Modeling To Foster a Cause-and-Effect Perspective in Dealing with Behavioral Distortions Associated with a City’s Performance Measurement Programs
Public Performance & Management Review, Mar 25, 2015
This paper aims to show how applying system dynamics methodology to performance management can pr... more This paper aims to show how applying system dynamics methodology to performance management can provide a powerful modeling perspective enabling public sector organizations to prevent, detect, and counteract behavioral distortions associated with performance measurement. A dynamic performance management approach is able to support performance management system designers in outlining and implementing a consistent set of measures that can allow public sector decision-makers to pursue sustainable organizational learning and development. This perspective implies a major shift from a static to a dynamic picture of organizational processes and results. It means framing delays between causes and effects, feedback loops, and trade-offs in time and space associated with alternative scenarios. It also means understanding how different policy levers impact the accumulation and depletion of strategic resources over time, and determining how performance drivers affect end results. An exemplar application of this perspective is outlined in relation to municipal crime-control policies. Unintended behavioral consequences generated by the implementation of the CompStat program (New York Police Department) on reward and performance management systems are framed through the “lenses” of dynamic performance management.// please note co-author posted this see other entry. Also, this link provides access.
This link is free access for the first 50 uses: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GsHBWtv4pWynfr6jw9PW/full
Making the Best Use of Judgmental Forecasting
The Evolution of the Performance Model from Black Box to the Logic Model through Systems Thinking
From approximately 1900 through the early 1970s, the examination of organizational performance in... more From approximately 1900 through the early 1970s, the examination of organizational performance in the United States reflected the Input/Output construct, which is associated with, if not derived from, scientific management. Beginning in the mid-1950s and accelerating in the 1970s, this construct transformed through systems thinking to Input → Throughput → Output. In current language, this sort of model is known as the “logic model.” There is no single accepted variant of the logic model. This process could be improved by adopting more coherence, integration with more performance constructs, and use of more systems constructs.
The Rube Goldberg Machine of Budget Implementation, or Is There a Structural Deficit in the New York City Budget?
Public Budgeting & Finance, 2013
This paper examines the case of continuous budgeting both preadoption and postadoption in New Yor... more This paper examines the case of continuous budgeting both preadoption and postadoption in New York City and considers matters of forecast bias, rebudgeting, and the belief that New York City remains in structural deficit which has been cited as a continuing source of concern since New York City's 1970s fiscal crisis. The asserted structural deficit is a rationale for reducing spending in the prebudget and postbudget adoption periods. Williams (2012), shows that New York City's revenue forecasts are biased to underestimation, exacerbating over longer horizons. This paper examines expenditure estimates, reductions and within-year modifications over the first decade of the twenty-first century. If there is a structural deficit, expenditures would exceed revenues in forecasts by more than offsetting forecast biases. However, there are other reasons expenditures may exceed revenues in forecasts. Late term increases in expenditure estimates suggest deliberate choices, which cannot be termed “structural.” Expenditure changes follow changing revenue particularly in the postadoption period. This rebudgeting practice does not reflect fiscal stress; it is part of a complex method of producing a surreptitious budget stabilization fund, reallocations favored by the mayor, and possibly shifting of the budget towards capital uses with little broad public discussion. These observed effects are somewhat consistent with effective financial management, but are nontransparent and inconsistent with democratic participation. Policy recommendations aim at restoring transparency and democratic oversight.
The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting
This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing ... more This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.
Before Performance Measurement
Evolution of Performance Measurement Until 1930
Measuring Government in the Early Twentieth Century
This article discusses the early history of performance and productivity measurement. It finds so... more This article discusses the early history of performance and productivity measurement. It finds sophisticated development of these tools beginning in the first decade of the twentieth century, primarily at the New York Bureau of Municipal Research. These practices grew out of accounting, the social survey, work records, and municipal statistics. The bureau built government's capacity to measure. They advocated such basic empirical practices as making observations at all, doing so systematically and routinely, and recording data at the time of observation. By 1912, performance measurement exhibited many of the features associated with the modern practice: measuring of input, output, and results; attempting to make government more productive; making reports comparable among communities; and focusing on allocation and accountability. Performance measurement was developed in the context of shifting power between the elected executive and the legislature.
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Books by Dan (Daniel) W Williams
Papers by Dan (Daniel) W Williams
Daniel W. Williams, Thad D. Calabrese
such as majority party affiliation, tenure of service, and legislative leadership affect the distribution of
state earmarked funds. The statistical results suggest that majority party affiliation and tenure of service
have significant effects on the total earmarked funding state legislators may receive each year. Senate
leaders or members of the Assembly Ways and Means Committee can also secure additional earmarks
to fund their community projects. This research fills the gap in literature on subnational earmarking.
methodology to performance management can provide a powerful modeling perspective enabling public sector organizations to prevent, detect, and counteract behavioral distortions associated with performance measurement. A dynamic performance management approach is able to support performance management system designers in outlining and implementing a consistent set of measures that can allow public sector decision-makers to pursue sustainable organizational learning and development. This perspective implies a major shift from a static to a dynamic picture of organizational processes and results. It means framing delays between causes and effects, feedback loops, and trade-offs in time and space associated with alternative scenarios. It also means understanding how different policy levers impact the accumulation and depletion of strategic resources over time, and determining how performance drivers affect end results. An exemplar application of this perspective is outlined in relation to municipal crime-control policies. Unintended behavioral consequences generated by the implementation of the CompStat program (New York Police Department) on reward and performance management systems are framed through the “lenses” of dynamic performance management.
This link is free access for the first 50 uses: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GsHBWtv4pWynfr6jw9PW/full