Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes
Top JEL
/ D: Microeconomics
/ / D8: Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
/ / / D84: Expectations; Speculations
2026
- Cole, Stephen J., 2026, "FOMC Forecasts, Constant-Gain Learning, and Optimism/Pessimism," Working Papers and Research, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics, number 2026-03, Jun.
- Ming Gu & David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh & Shijia Wu, 2026, "GIFfluence: A Visual Approach to Investor Sentiment and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 34636, Jan.
- Philip Bunn & Nicholas Bloom & Craig Menzies & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites & Ivan Yotzov, 2026, "State and Time-Dependent Pricing," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 34666, Jan.
- David Hirshleifer & Lin Peng & Qiguang Wang & Weichen Zhang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2026, "AI, Opinion Ecosystems, and Finance," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 34807, Feb.
- Daron Acemoglu & Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2026, "Multidimensional Signaling and the Rise of Cultural Politics," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 34909, Feb.
- Alexander Ugarov & Arya Gaduh & Peter McGee, 2026, "Preferences for Warning Signal Quality: Experimental Evidence," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 34992, Mar.
- Carola Binder & Dimitris Georgarakos & Pei Kuang & Li Tang, 2026, "Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 35090, Apr.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Simon G. Schröder & Andrei Shleifer & Maarten van Rooij, 2026, "The Psychology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 35214, May.
- Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi & Nils Wehrhöfer, 2026, "Lack of Trust and Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from a Firm Survey Experiment," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 35341, Jun.
- Neville Francis, 2026, "The Perceived Inflation Wedge," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 35354, Jun.
- Pawel Adrjan & Mária Balgova & Simon Jäger & Jonas Jessen & Jason Sockin, 2026, "Job Ads as Signals: Evidence from a Priced Amenity and Worker Beliefs," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 35457, Jul.
- Francesco D’Acunto & Michael Weber, 2026, "Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global Evidence," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 35511, Jul.
- Todor Borisov, 2026, "Inflation Expectations as an Indicator of Future Inflation in Bulgaria," Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 54-72, July.
- Philipp Roderweis & Alexander Toplitsch, 2026, "From traits to rates: How personality shapes inflation expectations (Philipp Roderweis, Alexander Toplitsch)," Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), number 272, Feb.
- Kehinde F Ajayi & Willa H Friedman & Adrienne M Lucas, 2026, "When Information is Not Enough: Evidence from a Centralised School Choice System," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 136, issue 673, pages 26-60.
- Jimenez Martinez, Antonio & Melguizo Lopez, Isabel, 2026, "Affecting Distributions of Opinions with Evidence," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 128334.
- Iwata, Yasuharu, 2026, "Public Signal Discounting: Fiscal Policy, Exchange Rates, and Firm-Level Decisions in Japan," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 129006, May.
- Lee, Sunwoo, 2026, "The Upward-Sloping Path of Fiscal Multipliers and Humped-Persistent Tail Effect: Evidence from a Behavioral New Keynesian Model of South Korea," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 129219, Feb.
- Tanisa Tawichsri & Suppawong Tuarob & Nuwat Nookhwun & Chinjuta Sangasaeng, 2026, "News-Based Inflation Expectations: LLM-Assisted Measurement and Forecasting," PIER Discussion Papers, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, number 252, May, revised Jul 2026.
- Fedor Minichev, 2026, "The potential of using textual data to estimate inflation expectations in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 81, pages 26-45.
- Debasis Rooj & Anurag Banerjee & Reshmi Sengupta, 2026, "COVID-19 and Consumer Confidence: Evidence from India," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , volume 25, issue 1, pages 7-34, June, DOI: 10.1177/09767479231197688.
- Dario Bonciani & Riccardo M. Masolo & Silvia Sarpietro, 2026, "How Food Prices Shape Inflation Expectations and the Monetary Policy Response," Working Papers in Public Economics, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome, number 274, Feb.
- Elton Beqiraj & Giuseppe Ciccarone & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, 2026, "The expectational pass-through in a generalized time-dependent price-setting model," Working Papers in Public Economics, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome, number 282, May.
- Pietro Dall’ Ara, 2026, "Coordination in complex environments," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, number 779, Apr.
- Paweł Galiński, 2026, "Beliefs That Move the Economy: Shocks to Firms’ and Households’ Inflation Expectations," KAE Working Papers, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, number 2026-120, Feb, DOI: 10.33119/kaewps2026120.
- Diego M. Hager & Samuel Reynard, 2026, "Forecasts, nowcasts and monetary policy lags," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2026-08.
- Julia de Sousa Pinheiro & Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2026, "Endogenously time-varying heterogeneity in unemployment expectations: A discrete choice approach in an agent-based modeling," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), number 2026_11, Mar.
- Wanderson Schmoeller Monteiro & Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2026, "Persistent Heterogeneity in Working Households` Expectations Regarding Economic Conditions and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), number 2026_04, Feb.
- Emanuele Citera & Francesco De Pretis, 2026, "Analyzing financial markets dynamics: a statistical equilibrium framework for stocks and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, volume 357, issue 1, pages 11-43, February, DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06451-1.
- Krishna Sharma & Pritam Basnet & Khem Raj Bhatt, 2026, "Social media discussion and short-horizon stock returns: evidence from a retail coordination episode," Digital Finance, Springer, volume 8, issue 1, pages 1-17, March, DOI: 10.1007/s42521-026-00184-5.
- Cosmas Dery & Nahiyan Faisal Azad, 2026, "Oil shocks and economic sentiment indicators in major emerging countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 70, issue 6, pages 1-46, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-026-02926-1.
- Serhan Cevik, 2026, "Far more than a shot in the arm: Vaccines and consumer spending," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), volume 27, issue 4, pages 791-800, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10198-025-01820-4.
- Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2026, "Modeling the Economy as a Watch or as a Cloud," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), volume 12, issue 2, pages 705-726, July, DOI: 10.1007/s40797-026-00377-2.
- Monique Reid & Dieter von Fintel & Anis Foresto, 2026, "From Deliberate Sample to Representative Sample: Pilot Study for the BER Inflation Expectations Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 22, issue 1, pages 157-186, April, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-026-00123-8.
- Doğuhan Sündal, 2026, "Investment–saving equilibrium in reliable markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, volume 36, issue 1, pages 1-20, April, DOI: 10.1007/s00191-025-00935-4.
- Lorenzo Biondi & Christian R. Proaño, 2026, "Nonlinear exchange rate dynamics and behavioral expectations: New evidence from selected emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, volume 36, issue 2, pages 1-48, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00191-026-00970-9.
- Georgy Lukyanov & Anastasia Makhmudova, 2026, "Public communication in regime change games," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, volume 55, issue 1, pages 1-20, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00182-026-00980-8.
- Carlos Madeira, 2026, "Predicting your children’s returns to schooling," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, volume 25, issue 1, pages 5-35, January, DOI: 10.1007/s10258-025-00275-y.
- Andrew C. Call & Mehmet C. Kara & Matt Peterson & Eric Weisbrod, 2026, "Social media discussion of sell-side analyst research: evidence from Twitter," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, volume 31, issue 2, pages 1088-1130, June, DOI: 10.1007/s11142-025-09929-w.
- Yuxi Chen & Luís Santos-Pinto, 2026, "Overconfidence and strategic behavior in elimination contests: implications for CEO selection," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, volume 30, issue 1, pages 1-44, February, DOI: 10.1007/s10058-025-00381-5.
- Yong Lu, 2026, "Magnitude effects in preference reversals: A meta-analysis," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, volume 30, issue 2, pages 169-202, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10058-025-00390-4.
- Alistair Macaulay, 2026, "The Causal Effects of Heterogeneous Expectation Formation in General Equilibrium," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 0326, Feb.
- Tjantana Barro & Michal Marencak & Giang Nghiem, 2026, "The Green Transition and Households’ Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment," Working and Discussion Papers, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia, number WP 4/2026, Mar.
- Lena Draeger & Michal Marencak & Giang Nghiem & Maritta Paloviita, 2026, "Heterogeneity in consumers economic expectations across euro area countries," Working and Discussion Papers, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia, number WP 7/2026, Jun.
- Hanjo Odendaal, 2026, "Animal spirits or political risk? Separating confidence channels in an emerging economy," Working Papers, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, number 08/2026.
- Chaewon Baek & Vitaliia Yaremko, 2026, "The Puzzle of a Missing Wage‐Price Spiral: Experimental Evidence on Inflation Expectations and Labor Supply," Trinity Economics Papers, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, number tep0926, Apr.
- Olena Kostyshyna & Isabelle Salle & Hung Truong, 2026, "Heterogeneity in the Formation of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 26-036/VI, Jun.
- Kim Ristolainen, 2026, "Quantifying Minsky Cycles," Discussion Papers, Aboa Centre for Economics, number 173, Apr.
- Lukyanov, Georgy & Makhmudova, Anastasia, 2026, "Public Communication in Regime Change games," TSE Working Papers, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), number 26-1713, Feb.
- Lukyanov, Georgy & Safaryan, Samuel, 2026, "Public Persuasion with Endogenous Fact-Checking," TSE Working Papers, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), number 26-1714, Feb.
- Sally Dubach, 2026, "Tracing the History of Asset Price Bubble Theory," Diskussionsschriften, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft, number dp2604, May.
- Dirk Bergemann & Tibor Heumann & Stephen Morris, 2026, "Screening with Persuasion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, volume 134, issue 2, pages 570-625, DOI: 10.1086/738342.
- Christos Antonios Statheas & Iacovos Sterghides & Marios Zachariadis, 2026, "Household Inattention across the euro-area," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics, University of Cyprus Department of Economics, number 06-2025, Jul.
- Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Carlos Berrout-Amezaga & Thierry Betti, 2026, "The Cost of Political Instability: Fiscal Noise and Economic Fluctuations," Working Papers of BETA, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg, number 2026-10.
- Pham Thuy Tu, 2026, "Global Information Uncertainty and Real Estate Stock Valuation in Emerging Markets: an Integrated Behavioral - Theoretical and Machine Learning Framework," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, volume 34, issue 1, pages 63-83, DOI: 10.2478/remav-2026-0006.
- Harold Glenn A. Valera & Cymon Kayle Lubangco & Mark J. Holmes, 2026, "Does repeated cross-section data help explain consumer inflation expectations revisions?," Working Papers in Economics, University of Waikato, number 26/03, Feb.
- Alistair Macaulay & Chenchuan Shi, 2026, "Ambiguity Aversion, Portfolio Choice, and Life Expectancy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, volume 67, issue 2, pages 633-655, May, DOI: 10.1111/iere.70039.
- George A. Waters, 2026, "Differentiability of Excess Payoff Dynamics," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., volume 28, issue 02, pages 1-11, June, DOI: 10.1142/S0219198925500100.
- Ristolainen, Kim, 2026, "Quantifying Minsky cycles," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 3/2026.
- Dräger, Lena & Marenčák, Michal & Nghiem, Giang & Paloviita, Maritta, 2026, "Heterogeneity in consumers' economic expectations across euro area countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 6/2026.
- Assenza, Tiziana & Huber, Stefanie J. & Mogilevskaja, Anna & Schmidt, Tobias, 2026, "When wording changes what we find: The impact of inflation expectations on spending," Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 13/2026, DOI: 10.71734/DP-2026-13.
- Erkut, Hande & Kübler, Dorothea, 2026, "Double standards: When stakeholders disagree with spectators in repugnance judgments," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 188, pages 1-12, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105415.
- Leibing, Andreas, 2026, "Skill Substitution, Expectations, and the Business Cycle," EconStor Preprints, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 335943, DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2602.02483.
- Ludolph, Melina & Nghiem, Giang & Tonzer, Lena, 2026, "Facts or feelings? The role of relatable narratives in shaping inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 10/2026, DOI: 10.18717/dpcam2-j667.
- Andre, Peter & Chopra, Felix & Michels, Luca & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2026, "Do people have economic expectations?," SAFE Working Paper Series, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, number 475, DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6535439.
- Roth, Felix, 2026, "Inflation and Public Support for the Euro," Hamburg Discussion Papers in International Economics, University of Hamburg, Department of Economics, number 21.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Stephen J. Terry, 2026, "Real Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, volume 116, issue 4, pages 1274-1308, April, DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211820.
- Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2026, "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 18, issue 1, pages 297-335, January, DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220128.
- Ina Hajdini, 2026, "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 18, issue 2, pages 188-226, April, DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230054.
- Taeyoung Doh & Dongho Song & Shu-Kuei Yang, 2026, "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 18, issue 3, pages 379-412, July, DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220312.
- Ran Eilat & Kfir Eliaz, 2026, "Rational Misspecification: Framework and Applications," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 18, issue 3, pages 285-316, August, DOI: 10.1257/mic.20250251.
- Benjamin Matta, 2026, "Sequential Protest Formation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 18, issue 3, pages 392-425, August, DOI: 10.1257/mic.20230241.
- Steve Bond & Agnes Norris Keiller & Áureo de Paula & John Van Reenen, 2026, "Leveraging Subjective Expectations for Production Functions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, volume 116, pages 469-474, May, DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261105.
- Shifrah Aron-Dine, 2026, "Natural Disaster Expectations and Household Adaptation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, volume 116, pages 527-531, May, DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261028.
- Steffen Altmann & Robert Mahlstedt & Malte Jacob Rattenborg & Alexander Sebald & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Wage Expectations and Job Search," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 386, Jan.
- Theresa Hübsch & Robert Mahlstedt & Pia Pinger & Sonja Settele & Helene Willadsen, 2026, "Mental Models of High School Success," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 392, Feb.
- Robert Mahlstedt & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Unemployment Narratives," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 399, Mar.
- Peter Andre & Felix Chopra & Luca Michels & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Do People Have Economic Expectations?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 402, Apr.
- Ralph Luetticke & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Macro Theory with Measured Expectations," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 414, Jun.
- Asger Lau Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Jens Brøndum Petersen & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Household Behavior Below the Zero Lower Bound," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany, number 418, Jun.
- Andreas Leibing, 2026, "Skill Substitution, Expectations, and the Business Cycle," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2602.02483, Feb, revised Jul 2026.
- Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Who Saw It Coming? Historical Experience and the 2021 Inflation Forecast Failure," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2604.14467, Apr.
- Firmin Ayivodji & Etienne Briand & Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Monetary Policy in the Media Spotlight: Sentiments, Signals, and Economic Impact," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2605.15092, May.
- Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Who Saw It Coming? Historical Experienceand the 2021 Inflation Forecast Failure," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 26-02, Apr.
- Firmin Ayivodji & Etienne Briand & Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Monetary Policy in the Media Spotlight: Sentiments, Signals, and Economic Impact," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 26-03, May.
- Christopher S. Sutherland, 2026, "Extraordinary Forward Guidance in Canada During the Pandemic," Staff Analytical Papers, Bank of Canada, number 2026-1, Feb, DOI: 10.34989/sap-2026-1.
- Guido Bulligan & Paolo Farroni, 2026, "Explaining the recent dynamics of the saving rate in the euro area: evidence from the Consumer Expectations Survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1046, Jul.
- Filippo Natoli & Sharath Sonti, 2026, "Overconfident forecasters and the impact of inflation information: evidence from a randomized survey experiment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1532, Apr.
- José Vicente Romero-Chamorro & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2026, "Deuda Pública, Expectativas sobre el Déficit Fiscal y su Transmisión al Componente Cíclico de las Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1355, May.
- Daron Acemoglu & Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2026, "Multidimensional Signaling and the Rise of Cultural Politics," Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics, number 2026-34.
- Anahit Matinyan & Ardash Kilejian, 2026, "The role of information in shaping inflation expectations and perceptions: a survey experiment," IFC Bulletins chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements, "Statistics and beyond: new data for decision making in central banks".
- Elizaveta Zvezdina, 2026, "Narratives and the Household Inflation Expectations," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, volume 85, issue 1, pages 63-94, March.
- Kiyoyasu Tanaka & Yasushi Ueki, 2026, "Who Fears Job Losses From US Tariff Hikes? Evidence From Cambodia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, volume 64, issue 2, pages 171-186, June, DOI: 10.1111/deve.70027.
- Ignacio Belloc & José Alberto Molina, 2026, "How Inheritance Expectations Impact Household Savings," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, volume 72, issue 1, February, DOI: 10.1111/roiw.70044.
- Evangelos Charalambakis, 2026, "On inflation perceptions and expectations for Greek and euro area consumers: evidence from the consumer expectations survey," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 63, pages 85-100, July, DOI: 10.52903/econbull20266304.
- Takuji Kondo & Yuki Takahashi & Kosuke Takatomi, 2026, "Households' Wage Growth Expectations Formation: The Linkage with Price Inflation Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 26-E-9, May.
- Benjamin Born & Nora Lamersdorf & Jana-Lynn Schuster & Sascha Steffen, 2026, "From Tweets to Transactions: High-Frequency Inflation Expectations, Consumption, and Stock Returns," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, number crctr224_2025_724, Jan.
- Ursula Berresheim & David Koll, 2026, "Staying Together Forever? Life-Cycle Effects of Overoptimistic Couples," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, number crctr224_2025_734, Mar.
- Malmendier Ulrike, 2026, "Homo experiens: Thünen-Vorlesung 2025," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, volume 27, issue 2, pages 133-163, DOI: 10.1515/pwp-2026-0027.
- Luckner Katharina & Álvarez-Benjumea Amalia & Freund Lars & Winter Fabian, 2026, "When Public Information Backfires: Heterogeneous Groups (Un)coordinate on a Fairness Norm," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, volume 21, issue 4, pages 793-831, DOI: 10.1515/rle-2024-0037.
- Emin Dinlersoz & Yueyuan Ma, 2026, "Expectations versus Reality in Business Formation," Working Papers, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, number 26-11, Feb.
- Negar Khaliliaraghi & Petter Lundborg & Johan Vikström, 2026, "Gender Gaps Under Comparable Tasks: Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12413.
- Steffen Altmann & Robert Mahlstedt & Malte Rattenborg & Alexander Sebald & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Wage Expectations and Job Search," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12420.
- Lars Behlen & Raphael Brade & Oliver Himmler & Robert Jäckle, 2026, "Information Framing and Student Decisions: Evidence from an Opportunity Cost Intervention," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12487.
- Theresa Hübsch & Robert Mahlstedt & Pia Pinger & Sonja Settele & Helene Willadsen, 2026, "Mental Models of High School Success," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12497.
- Klaus Abberger & Arbërim Bibaj & Hans Gersbach & Alexis Perakis & Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz & Kieran Walsh, 2026, "Tariffs and Firm Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12510.
- Robert Mahlstedt & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Unemployment Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12591.
- Peter Andre & Felix Chopra & Luca Michels & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Do People Have Economic Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12603.
- Erdinc Akyildirim & Suzan Bekci & Giray Gozgor, 2026, "Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12653.
- Ralph Luetticke & Christopher Roth & Mirko Wiederholt & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Macro Theory with Measured Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12715.
- Lena Dräger & Michal Marenčák & Giang Nghiem & Maritta Paloviita, 2026, "Heterogeneity in Consumers' Economic Expectations Across Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12725.
- Asger Lau Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Jens Brøndum Petersen & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2026, "Household Behavior Below the Zero Lower Bound," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12732.
- Jonas Hennrich & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2026, "More Than Just a Game? Soccer Tournaments and Firm Sentiment," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12745.
- Jessica Piccolo & Alessia Russo & Eleonora Granziera & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2026, "Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12784.
- Pei Kuang & Li Tang & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2026, "Belief Disagreement, Instability, and Uncertainty under Stochastic Recall," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12849.
- Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & David Gstrein & Carla Krolage & Florian Neumeier, 2026, "The Price of Regulatory Risk in Housing Markets: Evidence from Berlin," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12851.
- Selva Demiralp & Orkun Saka & Michael Weber, 2026, "Polarized Media and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12854.
- Aurelien Baillon & Francesco Capozza & Vahid Moghani, 2026, "Disambiguating Information Interventions: Recovering Beliefs and Ambiguity Attitudes from Virtual Twins," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 12856.
- Carlos Madeira, 2026, "The Life Experience of Central Bankers and Monetary Policy Decisions: A Cross-country Dataset," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 1073, Mar.
- Dalibor Stevanovic, 2026, "Who Saw It Coming? Historical Experience and the 2021 Inflation Forecast Failure," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2026s-06, Apr.
- Josef Simpartl, 2026, "Social Media as a Monetary Policy Tool? Evidence from a Survey Experiment," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2026/04, Feb.
- Ajzenman, Nicolas & Dominguez, Patricio & Novaes, Lucas M., 2026, "Electoral Results Affect Beliefs About the Past: Evidence from Chile," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21065, Jan.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Egorov, Georgy & Sonin, Konstantin, 2026, "Multidimensional Signaling and the Rise of Cultural Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21133, Feb.
- Benhima, Kenza & Bolliger, Elio & Davenport, Margaret, 2026, "Granular Portfolios, Expectations, and International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21134, Feb.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Hubert, Paul, 2026, "The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21241, Mar.
- Abberger, Klaus & Bibaj, Arbërim & Gersbach, Hans & Perakis, Alexis & Rathke, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad & Walsh, Kieran James, 2026, "Tariffs and Firm Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21269, Mar.
- Reis, Ricardo, 2026, "Why did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021-24? Channels and Evidence from Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21277, Mar.
- Esteban Casanelles, Teresa & Gonçalves, Duarte, 2026, "Incentives and Strategic Behaviour: An Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21338, Mar.
- McMahon, Michael & Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2026, "Rounding Up: Complexity, Satisficing, and Bias in Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21374, Apr.
- Ghassibe, Mishel & Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus & Yotzov, Ivan, 2026, "Intertemporal Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21456, May.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2026, "Endogenous Fiscal Dominance: Expectations, Political Shocks and Sovereign Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21542, May.
- Gonçalves, Duarte, 2026, "Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21552, May.
- Bianchi, Francesco & Faccini, Renato & Melosi, Leonardo & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2026, "Lack of Trust and Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from a Firm Survey Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21595, Jun.
- Andersen, Asger Lau & Johannesen, Niels & Petersen, Jens & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2026, "Household Behavior Below the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21623, Jun.
- Piccolo, Jessica & Russo, Alessia & Granziera, Eleonora & Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2026, "Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 21641, Jun.
- Petter Lundborg & Johan Vikström & Negar Khaliliaraghi, 2026, "Gender Gaps Under Comparable Tasks: Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin), number 26028, Jan.
- Pamela Giustinelli & Edwin Leuven, 2026, "Getting In and Getting Through: Ex Ante Beliefs and Counterfactual Outcomes in Centralized College Admissions," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin), number 26066, Mar.
- Spyros Galanis, 2026, "Information Aggregation with AI Agents," Department of Economics Working Papers, Durham University, Department of Economics, number 2026_02, May.
- Diego Marino-Fages, 2026, "Partisan Bias in Economic Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers, Durham University, Department of Economics, number 2026_06, May.
- Dimou, Maria & Flaccadoro, Marco & Gareis, Johannes, 2026, "The household saving rate revisited: recent dynamics and underlying drivers," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 8.
- Battistini, Niccolò & Baumann, Adam & Gareis, Johannes & Rusinova, Desislava, 2026, "Has housing regained its allure? Insights from a new survey-based housing Sharpe ratio," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 8.
- Bodnár, Katalin & Botelho, Vasco & Lebastard, Laura & Weißler, Marco, 2026, "Holding on: labour hoarding and firms’ expectations," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 8.
- Bates, Colm & Kuik, Friderike & Wieland, Elisabeth & Zekaite, Zivile, 2026, "Inside the food basket: what is behind recent food inflation?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 8.
- Hibbert, Ann Marie & Yang, Shanxiang, 2026, "Racial differences in expected stock market performance and stock ownership," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, volume 49, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101133.
- Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Jiraporn, Pornsit & Au Yong, Hue Hwa, 2026, "From crisis to climate: Geopolitical turbulence, climate change exposure, and managerial ownership," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, volume 50, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101161.
- Hernández-Lagos, Pablo, 2026, "The transparency of AI and the profits of the firm," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, volume 99, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2026.103002.
- J․ Adams, Jonathan, 2026, "Equilibrium determinacy with behavioral expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 183, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2026.105255.
- Liu, Feng, 2026, "A simple higher-order rational email-game bubble model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 185, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2026.105284.
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- Shi, Aruhan Rui, 2026, "Can an AI agent hit a moving target?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 189, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2026.105349.
- Tramontana, Fabio, 2026, "Overconfidence and market instability in a Brock–Hommes asset pricing model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 264, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112955.
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- Méango, Romuald, 2026, "Is the distribution of resolvable uncertainty Type I extreme value? A test for random coefficient models using choice probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 267, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113064.
- Asencio, Felipe & Bernales, Alejandro & González, Daniel & Holowczak, Richard & Verousis, Thanos, 2026, "Decomposing informed trading in equity options," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 253, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106131.
- Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik & Tang, Li & Xie, Shihan, 2026, "Macroprudential policy and housing market expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 181, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105191.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Cross, Jamie L. & Kalstad, Helene O., 2026, "Unveiling inflation: Oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 181, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105192.
- Bhatiya, Apurav Yash & Chakravorty, Bhaskar & Imbert, Clément & Rathelot, Roland, 2026, "How do beliefs and preferences over jobs affect enrollment in vocational training: Experimental evidence from India," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 184, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105238.
- Eickmeier, Sandra & Petersen, Luba, 2026, "The ECB’s climate activities and public trust," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 187, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105319.
- Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2026, "Heart strings and purse strings: The impact of affect on consumer spending," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 187, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105383.
- Jiang, Danyang & Li, Haoyuan & Tian, Xiaoli, 2026, "IPO underwriting incentives and macroeconomic forecast optimism," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 87, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101704.
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- Singhal, Puja & Kaestner, Kathrin & Schwarz, Antonia & Pahle, Michael, 2026, "How do households react to a real cost shock? Evidence from the energy price crisis in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 155, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109142.
- Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2026, "Speculative price dynamics in a cobweb-type oil market model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 160, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109478.
- Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Ángel & Roig, Marta, 2026, "When presidents make the news, do crude oil markets listen? An LLM-driven analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 160, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109480.
- Naebi, Fatemeh, 2026, "Challenging the rare disaster model: An empirical analysis using the survey of professional forecasters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, volume 101, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.110049.
- Erkut, Hande & Kübler, Dorothea, 2026, "Repugnant transactions: The role of agency and severe consequences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, volume 157, issue C, pages 22-33, DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2026.01.001.
- Mitchell, James & Shiroff, Taylor & Braitsch, Hana, 2026, "Practice makes perfect: Learning effects with household point and density forecasts of inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 42, issue 2, pages 315-329, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.06.002.
- Bürgi, Constantin & Ortiz, Julio L., 2026, "Overreaction through anchoring," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 42, issue 2, pages 512-526, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.08.002.
- Gan, Quan & Wan, Wayne Xinwei & Xu, Ke, 2026, "Limits of arbitrage, idiosyncratic risk, and the role of flippers in the housing market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 187, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2026.107695.
- Brouwer, Nils & De Haan, Jakob, 2026, "The impact of public knowledge about central bank independence on trust and inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 241, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107329.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Brunne, Jennifer & Heinrich, Timo, 2026, "Inflation expectations and cognitive uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 244, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107437.
- Chao, Matthew & Shin, Euncheol, 2026, "Culture-specific social constructs and their implications for cross-cultural experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 245, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107491.
- Angelico, Cristina & Di Giacomo, Federica, 2026, "Heterogeneous inflation expectations and forecast errors across the income distribution: The role of memory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 246, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107552.
- Enders, Zeno & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2026, "Macroeconomic expectations: Formation, measurement, and consequences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 247, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107620.
- Duan, Jieyi & Hanaki, Nobuyuki, 2026, "An experimental analysis on cross-asset arbitrage opportunity and the law of one price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 248, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107640.
- Xiao, Wei & Ji, Yangyang, 2026, "Heuristic macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 248, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107669.
- Jeworrek, Sabrina & Tonzer, Lena, 2026, "Inflation concerns and green product consumption: Evidence from a nationwide survey and a framed field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 248, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107673.
- Cao, Jinze & Fan, Mingxuan, 2026, "The illusion of free electricity: Household responses to solar panel program in Singapore," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, volume 138, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103312.
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- Muramoto, Akitoshi & Sogo, Takeharu, 2026, "Asymmetric optimal auction design with loss-averse bidders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, volume 235, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2026.106186.
- Chen, Heng & Liu, Yicheng, 2026, "Expectation and confusion: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, volume 235, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2026.106189.
- Liu, Haoyang & Palmer, Christopher, 2026, "Implicit extrapolation and the beliefs channel of investment demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, volume 175, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104172.
- Andersen, Steffen & Dimmock, Stephen G. & Nielsen, Kasper Meisner & Peijnenburg, Kim, 2026, "Extrapolators and contrarians: Forecast bias and individual investor stock trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, volume 181, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2026.104291.
- Pang, Hao, 2026, "Forecast bias across horizons: Inflation expectations and the Treasury yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, volume 183, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2026.104327.
- Acuña Armenta, Carolina, 2026, "Central bank transparency under adaptive learning empirical evidence from Mexico," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 88, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2026.103751.
- Matinyan, Anahit & Kilejian, Ardash & Minasyan, Gevorg & Shirkhanyan, Aleksandr, 2026, "The role of information in shaping inflation expectations and perceptions: A survey experiment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 88, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2026.103754.
- Saulītis, Andris, 2026, "Strategic misreporting on tax evasion: Uncovering social desirability bias through integrated list-vignette experiments," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, volume 115, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2026.102906.
- Zarifhonarvar, Ali, 2026, "Generating inflation expectations with large language models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 157, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859.
- Gemmi, Luca & Valchev, Rosen, 2026, "Biased surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 157, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868.
- Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2026, "A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 157, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103882.
- Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Rafael, 2026, "Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 158, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103885.
- Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2026, "Biased expectations and labor market outcomes: Evidence from German survey data and implications for the East–West wage gap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 159, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103917.
- Lei, Xun & Huang, Jiexiang & Ruan, Xinfeng, 2026, "Sentiment and uncertainty: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, volume 96, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102993.
- Lee, Seohyun, 2026, "Forecast disagreement about firm-level profitability and uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, volume 97, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103092.
- Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu, 2026, "Ballots, budgets and bricks: Brexit and the polarisation of individual economic behaviours," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 259, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105666.
- Perera-Tallo, Fernando, 2026, "The role of the central bank in managing expectations, backing up public debt, and controlling public deficits," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 107, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102127.
- Knapp, Boris & Stelzeneder, Dominik, 2026, "The impact of misinformation on consumer choices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, volume 122, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2026.102576.
- Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2026, "Monitoring Macroeconomic Prospects with a Meta VAR-E Dashboard," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2026-10, Feb.
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