Mega structures for CO 2 storage, such as the Utsira formation in the North Sea, could theoretica... more Mega structures for CO 2 storage, such as the Utsira formation in the North Sea, could theoretically supply CO 2 storage capacity for several countries for a period of several decades. Their use could increase the cost-effectiveness of CCS in a region while minimizing opposition from the public to CO 2 storage. However, this will not only depend on their potential available capacity to store CO 2 flows but also on the cost effectiveness of such an option within national portfolios of mitigation measures. This article shows key results of a research project aiming to assess the potentials and costs of storing CO 2 in the Utsira formation for the time period 2015-2050. Countries included in the analysis are Denmark, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The starting point of the analysis are the national MARKAL and TIMES models developed for each country together with the 27 region Pan European TIMES model (PET). In the models scenarios, assumptions and parameters that are not country dependent (e.g. costs related with CO 2 capture technology development) have been harmonized. The results indicate that with stringent climate targets, CCS appears as a key mitigation option in the national portfolio of measures. Within the CCS portfolio, storage of CO 2 in the Utsira formation can indeed be a cost effective option for North Europe and it represents a valuable CO 2 storage option at the regional level. For instance, the United Kingdom will profit from the comparably short transport distance to Utsira while the Netherlands utilise the Utsira formation due to limited domestic low cost storage fields and the use of the country as a regional hub for CO 2. In Germany and Denmark, the competitiveness of CO 2 storage in Utsira is determined by the availability of domestic onshore saline aquifers. If these aquifers are not used, Utsira gains as competitive storage option. The main limitation for the common use of the Utsira formation appears, from a modeling point of view, to be the maximum annual injection rate for CO 2 that has been assumed in the project (150 Mt CO 2 /yr).
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Nov 1, 2011
The potential scale of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) under long-term decarbonisation s... more The potential scale of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) under long-term decarbonisation scenarios means that analysis on the contribution of large international CO 2 storage reservoirs is critical. This paper compares the potentially key role of CCS within cost-optimizing energy systems modelling at the national level (ensuring country-specific technical, economic and policy detail), and the regional level (ensuring transboundary electricity and CO 2 trade). Analysis at alternate model scales investigates the full range of drivers on the feasibility and trade-offs in using the Utsira formation as a common North Sea CO 2 storage resource. A robust finding is that low carbon electricity is a primary decarbonisation pathway and that CCS plays a key role (32-40%) within this portfolio. This paper confirms that the overall driver of the amount of CCS utilized is the climate policy, with by 2050 a total of 475-570 MtCO 2 captured and stored (of which 110-120 MtCO 2 is stored in Utsira) under an 80% CO 2 reduction target. Modelled country differences are much larger due to specific national policies and to regional (EU) commodity trading. From 2030 onwards, Utsira plays a key role within the CO 2 storage cost curve, with the Netherlands and the UK being the largest contributors, followed by transboundary flows of CO 2 from other countries. However, overall regional CCS flows may be larger (for example under low fossil fuel prices) than the estimated (and uncertain) maximum annual injection rates into Utsira which could potentially represent a significant constraint.
The transportation sector in Norway represents approximately 30 % of the CO 2-emissions. In order... more The transportation sector in Norway represents approximately 30 % of the CO 2-emissions. In order to significantly reduce CO 2-emissions, measures towards the transportation sector have to be addressed. This includes both efficiency and new vehicle fuels. The NorWays project has been aiming at providing decision support for introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the Norwegian energy system. Important objectives have been to analyze and evaluate scenarios, market segments as well as geographical regions for introduction of hydrogen. Regional MARKAL models were developed for the counties Oslo, Telemark and Rogaland. The MARKAL models have been used in order to analyze the entire energy system and compare hydrogen technologies to other possibilities, such as bio fuels, plug-in hybrids etc. The analysis focuses on how taxes, restrictions and energy prices have an impact on the production and use of hydrogen towards 2050. The main scenarios analyzed have been a scenario based on assumptions from the EU hydrogen roadmap project HyWays, a scenario with no taxes on transport energy and a scenario with 75 % reduction in CO 2-emissions by 2050. In the HyWays scenario all cars in Rogaland and Telemark use hydrogen in 2050. In Oslo, there are no hydrogen cars in this scenario, due to more expensive hydrogen in Oslo than in the other regions. Plug-in hybrids are introduced in Oslo from 2020, and in 2050 all cars are plug-in hybrids.
This report represents the national case study of Norway for the EIEproject "Monitoring of energy... more This report represents the national case study of Norway for the EIEproject "Monitoring of energy efficiency in EU-15 and Norway-ODYSSEE-MURE". It presents the recent energy efficiency trends in Norway on the basis of indicators extracted from the ODYSSEE database. Total energy consumption (not including energy as feedstock) has increased from 192 TWh in 1990 to a present maximum of 219 TWh in 1999. From then it has been a slight decrease and in 2005 the final energy consumption was 215 TWh. Energy consumption in manufacturing industry has increased by 11 % from 1990 to 2004, and in the period 1998-2004 it seems to be steadying at approximately 78 TWh. Final energy use in households has increased from 41 TWh in 1990 to a maximum of 46.6 TWh in 1996 and 2002. In 2005 44.1 TWh was used, which is almost the same as the consumption in 1994. It seems to be an interrupt in the increase of energy use in households, despite the growth of all common used drivers in this sector. Energy efficiency policies and measures implemented since 1990 have contributed to improve the efficiency by 10 %, or 0.7 % per year; this means that if these policies and measures would not have been implemented, the final energy consumption would have been 10 % higher in 2004 (or approximately 19 TWh).
Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservatio... more Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export.
Modelling the interaction between the energy system and road freight in Norway
Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment, 2023
Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Urban Areas: The Case of Oslo
Lecture notes in energy, 2018
In the Nordic region, about 85% of the population already lives in urban settlements. Meeting the... more In the Nordic region, about 85% of the population already lives in urban settlements. Meeting the future energy demand in cities and urban areas in a sustainable way is an important challenge for the future. Sustainability has been integrated in the planning of many Nordic cities, and the Nordic capitals have the potential to lead the low-carbon transition by example. Oslo is a small city in a global context, but it wants to show how cities can take the responsibility for the development of sustainable energy systems with innovative ideas and solutions for the future. A technology-rich optimization model has been developed to analyze how various energy and climate policies and measures can transform the city of Oslo into a low-carbon city. One of the key findings from these scenarios is that the majority of the emissions from the stationary sector can be removed at a low abatement cost, and most of these actions are relatively easy to implement. The phase-out of fossil-fuels in buildings occurs in all climate mitigation scenarios explored. The transport sector completes its full transition to non-fossil fuels only when fossil fuels are banned by specific policies. In all cases, support to fuel and technology innovation appears essential to the low-carbon transition of Oslo.
Charging and refueling demand for heavy-duty zero emission trucks in Norwegian transport corridors
More than half of the world's population are living in cities today, and by 2050 almost 75% of th... more More than half of the world's population are living in cities today, and by 2050 almost 75% of the population will live in urban areas. Thus, meeting the energy demand in urban areas in a sustainable way is an important challenge for the future. Oslo wants to show how cities can take leadership in the green change and contribute with innovative ideas and solutions for development of sustainable energy systems. A technology-rich optimisation model has been developed in order to analyse how various energy and climate measures can transform Oslo into a low-carbon city. Consequently, the main focus of this work has been to find optimal ways of reducing the CO2 emissions, and secondly, the energy consumption.
Hybrid PV‐systems and co‐localization of charging and filling stations for electrification of road transport sector
Solar RRL, Jan 27, 2022
Electrification of the road transport sector likely includes both battery electric (BEV) and hydr... more Electrification of the road transport sector likely includes both battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). Integration of energy carriers is described as a route forward for efficient integration of renewable energy. The objective of this work is to determine cost‐efficiency improvements with co‐localization of BEV and FCEV stations, and how this impacts optimal sizing of the photovoltaic (PV) production and battery storage. Grid‐connected co‐localized charging/filling stations, situated north of Oslo, Norway, are modeled in HOMER Pro and HOMER Grid. PV production is modeled using PVsyst and a snow loss model to analyze the effect of snow shading on PV production. Demand data for BEV and FCEV are synthesized based on historical traffic data (year 2015–2019) to represent three different cases of BEV/FCEV distribution. Results indicate that co‐localization, i.e., the integration of energy carriers for BEV and FCEV, leads to a marginal cost‐efficiency improvement of 0.1–1.4%, depending on BEV/FCEV distribution and cost assumptions. Co‐localization shows greater benefits for the integration of locally produced renewable power. Due to co‐localization, the cost‐optimal PV capacity is either increased or PV power export is reduced. Stationary batteries are also observed to cost‐efficiently perform peak shaving in a future scenario.
CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050 - Reference path
35, 2015
As opposed to most other European countries, Norway has no official, public energy projection. We... more As opposed to most other European countries, Norway has no official, public energy projection. We have therefore developed an energy projection towards 2050, with openness to data and detailed discussions of parameters and resulting energy demand. It is not a prediction, but a projection, with assumptions based on discussions among the CenSES partners. The objective is to have a platform for further analyses within CenSES and other interested users, where assumptions can be openly presented. The intention is to develop alternative paths based on future discussions, as a way of improving the knowledge of how to achieve a sustainable future energy system. The analysis gives an understanding of the high uncertainties about future energy demand. Four scenarios are presented, all presenting a possible future, and the total energy use differs with about 65 TWh in 2050. The electricity consumption differs with approximately 45 TWh from the lowest to the highest use in the four scenarios. Main parameters varying in the scenarios are the levels of industry activity and energy efficiency implementation as presented in Table 1. The reference scenario is based on an industry activity at the present level and minor implementation of energy efficiency. thodology is used where the demand of energy services is calculated first. This is input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway that calculates the energy consumption. The calculated use of total energy and different energy carriers highly depend on the assumptions used in the analyses. The demand calculations are based on the development of drivers and indicators of each demand sector. A major driver is the population projection that is based on the medium national growth of Statistics Norway 2012. The assumptions are discussed with CenSES-partners, and the authors have full responsibility for the results and conclusions presented in this paper. n the reference path, final energy consumption increases by 30 TWh to about 250 TWh in 2050. The increased electricity consumption is 21 TWh to 134 TWh in 2050. Implementation of profitable energy efficiency measures can reduce the final energy consumption by 4 TWh in total while the electricity use increase by 7 TWh (-2% and +6% respectively). In total, profitable energy efficiency measures including heat pumps can reduce the energy consumption in 2050 by about 23 TWh. Illustrations of some of these scenarios are included in this paper as “stories” describing literary how possible futures might become
Heading Towards Sustainable Energy Systems: Evolution or Revolution?,15th IAEE European Conference,Sept 3-6, 2017, Sep 3, 2017
Models are useful and widespread tools in energy and climate policy analyses. Two main families o... more Models are useful and widespread tools in energy and climate policy analyses. Two main families of models have been developed over the decades. One is the energy system models, based on optimization of technology choices in production, distribution and consumption of energy. The other is economic computable general equilibrium models, based on optimizing economic agents whose interaction in markets (including energy markets) determines equilibrium prices and quantities. Over time, the two traditions have adopted features from each other and included more of the real-world complexities (such as behavioural and market barriers). The purpose of our analysis is to study the similarities and differences between the two modelling approaches in the context of energy efficiency policies. We have analysed the same policy-energy efficiency targets in households-using two models of different modelling traditions. The models generate fairly different results, particularly in the electricity market. Methods We study energy efficiency policies in households in an energy system model, TIMES-Norway (Lind and Rosenberg, 2013) and in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Norwegian economy, SNOW-NO (Bye et al., 2015).
The role of hydrogen in the transition from a petroleum economy to a low-carbon society
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Jul 1, 2021
Abstract A radical decarbonization pathway for the Norwegian society towards 2050 is presented. T... more Abstract A radical decarbonization pathway for the Norwegian society towards 2050 is presented. The paper focuses on the role of hydrogen in the transition, when present Norwegian petroleum export is gradually phased out. The study is in line with EU initiatives to secure cooperation opportunities with neighbouring countries to establish an international hydrogen market. Three analytical perspectives are combined. The first uses energy models to investigate the role of hydrogen in an energy and power market perspective, without considering hydrogen export. The second, uses an economic equilibrium model to examine the potential role of hydrogen export in value creation. The third analysis is a socio-technical case study on the drivers and barriers for hydrogen production in Norway. Main conclusions are that access to renewable power and hydrogen are prerequisites for decarbonization of transport and industrial sectors in Norway, and that hydrogen is a key to maintain a high level of economic activity. Structural changes in the economy, impacts of new technologies, and key enablers and barriers in this transition are discussed.
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Jun 1, 2016
The selection of the social discount rate and the consideration of hurdle rates in energy systems... more The selection of the social discount rate and the consideration of hurdle rates in energy systems optimisation models affect the creation of sound and comprehensive scenarios useful for energy modellers. Due to the lack of studies about the use of different discounting options in energy optimisation models, the goal of this paper is to fill that gap by establishing the foundations for a debate among energy modellers, policy-makers and stakeholders in this regard. So firstly, we introduced the concept of discount rates both social and technology-specific including a thorough literature review concerning figures, scopes and approaches. Secondly, two models, ETSAP-TIAM and TIMES-Norway, were used to assess the behaviour of the energy systems at different regionalisation levels, Europe and Norway respectively. Thirdly, we analysed the evolution of the electricity production mixes and system costs for both models and considering several values for the discount rates. Finally, results showed that the energy system is strongly affected by changes in the social discount rate. The lower the social discount rate is, the higher the renewable contribution. The social discounting exerts influence on capital intensive investments so it is quite important to look at the energy carriers pathways (fossil-renewable transition). This is what happens in the case of ETSAP-TIAM for Europe. Reversely, in the case of TIMES-Norway, as the electricity system is almost 100% renewable, it is important to take into account the hurdle rates of the technologies to enrich the competition by including their particular risks and barriers. In summary, we recommend using a value not higher than 4-5% for the social discount rate for the European countries as well as to include an exhaustive portfolio of hurdle rates for all the technologies included in the energy optimisation model.
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Papers by Kari Espegren