Papers by Achilleas Tsantis
WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 2026
Direct connections between trading countries in container shipping can shorten transit times, and... more Direct connections between trading countries in container shipping can shorten transit times, and reduce risk, thereby enhancing global transportation, and supporting supply chain performance. While transhipment services offer strategic flexibility, cost efficiency and geographical reach, direct connections tend to be more suitable for time-sensitive, high-value, perishable, or specialised goods thus being critical for certain commodities and trade contexts. Therefore, understanding and estimating container shipping lines' decisions to establish or discontinue a connection is crucial when structuring and planning supply chains. This paper employs a causal framework and draws on a dataset that considers the UK and its trading partners from 2012 to 2020 to unravel the broader key determinants of direct container shipping connections. Following its validation through expert interviews and sensitivity analysis, the model is then used to simulate how direct connections may evolve under a significant trade flow disruption, achieving a 94% out-of-sample predictive performance. The model can support scenario analysis, inform contingency planning, and guide public-private initiatives aimed at strengthening the adaptability of global logistics under conditions of uncertainty. The results provide actionable insights for both policymakers and practitioners, offering a timely tool for anticipating changes in container shipping networks. Governments can integrate such models into national transport policies to proactively address potential disruptions in trade flows and enhance supply chain resilience.
Containerisation plays a critical role in global supply chains and their container flows. The Uni... more Containerisation plays a critical role in global supply chains and their container flows. The United Nations COMTRADE database provides data on trade flows across various product categories and time periods that are likely to be containerised. This paper undertakes a detailed analysis of the corresponding data, aiming to evaluate whether the data assumptions generally used provide a good approximation of actual containerised trade flows. An iterative and randomised assessment of different COMTRADE data subsets is undertaken. The analysis shows the assumption that the same product categories are likely to be containerised at a similar level for all countries is invalid. This paper seeks to provide accurate and tested insights on the nature of containerised freight.
Maritime economics and logistics, Nov 7, 2022
The establishment of direct connections between countries in container shipping is largely driven... more The establishment of direct connections between countries in container shipping is largely driven by the underlying trade dynamics. It is also the joint result of various other contributing factors, ranging from land infrastructure to carrier strategies. The literature to date has only partially focused on some of the factors that in theory may affect the establishment of direct connections but has mainly focused on the positive impact that a direct connection between two countries may have on bilateral trade development. However, there has been only limited research on the systematic identification of the factors that should be in place, to promote or prevent the establishment of a direct link between countries in container shipping. This paper attempts to fill this gap by undertaking a Systematic Literature Review that examines the issue from various perspectives and classifies the previous research under five themes: (1) Shipping Network, (2) Connectivity, (3) Port Selection Criteria, (4) Trade and (5) Alternative Transport Modes. A framework is subsequently developed which identifies the set of factors that determine the establishment of direct container shipping connections between trading countries and the expected impact (positive, negative or ambiguous) of each factor. The insights from our research and the framework developed can be of use to interested stakeholders across the research and policy domains who have an interest in both the establishment and continuation of direct container shipping connections between trading countries.
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Papers by Achilleas Tsantis