Research Reports by Philine Warnke
Papers by Philine Warnke
This paper presents the methodology and findings from a Foresight process on the advancement of s... more This paper presents the methodology and findings from a Foresight process on the advancement of social sustainability in global value production networks. A methodology was developed that combines exploratory scenario development with elements from backcasting and normative scenario building in order to develop transformative transition pathways. The approach was applied in two scenario workshops one focusing on smartphone production the other on the textile sector. In total seven transition pathways were developed, five for smartphones and two for textiles. After explaining the methodology we present in detail the findings from both workshops. We then discuss implications for fostering transition towards more socially sustainable value production networks. Finally, we assess the lessons learned in terms of methodology and suggest further avenues of development for the transformative scenario building approach.
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE
The study of cognitive mechanisms involved in human decision-making has been a central research t... more The study of cognitive mechanisms involved in human decision-making has been a central research topic for psychologists for the better part of the last century and remains in the research focus to date. In the foresight community, these cognitive mechanisms have also started
European Journal of Futures Research
In this contribution, we investigate how results produced in a large-scale participatory agenda s... more In this contribution, we investigate how results produced in a large-scale participatory agenda setting process differ from results of expert-based foresight studies with a similar aim of informing EU research and innovation (R&I) policy. After providing a theoretical positioning and an overview of the EU-wide participatory agenda setting process CIMULACT-Citizen and Multi-Actor Consultation on Horizon 2020, we describe our developed analytical approach that includes five analytical steps and calculation of three metrics. By comparative reading, analysis and scoring of 16 expert-based foresight reports, we produced data for the metrics that allow for discerning between (a) how many of the analyzed foresight reports cover a respective topic from CIMULACT, (b) how well this basic coverage aligns qualitatively, and (c) comprehensive comparison of each CIMULACT topic with respect to all surveyed reports. To discern differences, we chose those results (research topics) from CIMULACT that were also sufficiently covered by expert-based reports. Our findings suggest that such citizen-based, multi-actor co-created policy advice qualitatively differs considerably from that elicited by expert-based reports, in terms of direction and focus of the proposed R&I agenda.
New forms of innovation: critical issues for future pathways
Foresight, 2016
Purpose Although new forms of innovation such as open innovation, user innovation or crowdsourcin... more Purpose Although new forms of innovation such as open innovation, user innovation or crowdsourcing have been intensively discussed in the past decade, there is little systematic exploration of their wider positive and negative effects on economy, society and environment. Based on the recent debate in the literature and findings from a European foresight project, this paper aims to discuss the critical aspects of new forms of innovation such as increased participation, the use of information technologies and the increased pace of innovation and their challenges for innovation policy. Design/methodology/approach Based on a collection of international practice examples from industry and society, innovation visions have been generated and assessed by different experts across whole Europe. Findings A generic trend identified can be best described as open, distributed and networked innovation process. Although many new innovation models accelerate the innovation process, there are also so...
Computersimulation und Intervention
Page 1. Computersimulation und Intervention Eine Methode der Technikentwicklung als Vermittlungsi... more Page 1. Computersimulation und Intervention Eine Methode der Technikentwicklung als Vermittlungsinstrument soziotechnischer Umordnungen Vom Fachbereich Gesellschafts-und Geschichtswissenschaften der Technischen Universität Darmstadt ...
Ökologisches Wirtschaften - Fachzeitschrift, 2016
Innovationspolitik ist zumeist Industriepolitik. Dabei wird die hohe gesellschaftliche Bedeutung ... more Innovationspolitik ist zumeist Industriepolitik. Dabei wird die hohe gesellschaftliche Bedeutung von unspektakulären, nicht kommerziellen Alltagsinnovationen unterschätzt. Innovationspolitik muss daher auch diese kollaborativ geschaffenen Innovationen in den Blick nehmen.
Small Seeds for Grand Challenges- Exploring Disregarded Seeds of Change in a Foresight Process for RTI Policy
Futures, 2015
Foresight-Bericht Band 1: Gesellschaftliche Veränderungen 2030
Investitionen in Maschinen, Anlagen und Informationstechnik haben eine dauerhaft große Bedeutung ... more Investitionen in Maschinen, Anlagen und Informationstechnik haben eine dauerhaft große Bedeutung für die Modernisierung der Produktion, auch wenn immer noch eine Mehrheit der Betriebe ihre Priorität bei organisatorischen Maßnahmen sieht. Die Verbreitung innovativer Fertigungstechniken erfolgt jedoch mit sehr unterschiedlicher Dynamik. Der Anwender sollte dies im Hin- blick auf Notwendigkeiten, zur Erhaltung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit neue Verfahren einzuführen, beobachten. Für Fertigungstechnikhersteller bestimmen
Contribution of the FOR-LEARN project to the study of foresight impacts on policy
Computersimulation und Intervention : eine Methode der Technikentwicklung als Vermittlungsinstrument soziotechnischer Umordnungen /
Darmstadt, Techn. Universiẗat, Diss., 2002 (Nicht für den Austausch).
Future studies and weak signals: A critical survey This special issue of Futures is one of the ou... more Future studies and weak signals: A critical survey This special issue of Futures is one of the outcomes of the European project ''Advancing Foresight Methodologies: Exploring new ways to explore the future'' sponsored by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) from 2004 to 2007. The starting point for COST A22 was the hypothesis that both the theory and practice of the field of futures studies were undergoing significant change. The aim was to explore how the different philosophical and applied aspects of future studies were evolving and how researchers and new research agendas might contribute to such evolution. The process ended with a conference in Athens in the Summer 2007 (http://www.costa22.dk/), providing significant inspiration for a variety of spin-off activities, projects and publications. 1 As it turned out COST A22 provided ample evidence of the vibrancy and creativity of the futures field. COST A22 catalogued and inspired new approaches to embracing complexity, applying foresight techniques to private and public sector challenges, linking the future to decision-making and leadership, as well as furthering many different directions for deeper research. The work of COST A22 was divided into four thematic working groups: Definition of Concepts; Identifying Seeds of Change; Integrating Narratives and Numbers; Interactions between Researchers, Decision Makers, and the Public. These themes corresponded well with the most pressing issues being faced by the future studies community and provided an excellent framework for a rich process of reflection and debate. 2 This Special Issue is the fruit of the second thematic working group that was charged with the task of exploring the broad topic ''seeds of change.'' For four years this international group of researchers, involving all of the authors in this Special Issue, used the COST A22 meetings and exchanges as a laboratory for an extended intellectual journey. Like with most intellectual journeys this one started with an initial review of the existing literature, (conducted by Portuguese, Finish and Estonian delegates). Particular attention was paid to the seminal contributions of Ansoff and those who followed in the Ansoffian tradition. Already at this early stage the conversation started to provide new perspectives on the relationship between weak signals and wild cards, on the semiotic and the systems' approaches to signals, as well as the influence of knowledge management on the capacity to detect signals early. Gradually discussion moved beyond an inventory of existing work on weak signals to reveal a number of opposing positions and unresolved questions. This provided fuel for exploring further. One of the key debates in second phase of our work on ''seeds of change'' was between those who took a predominantly deterministic view of the future-to-come versus those who adopted a more constructivist perspective. Partisans of a more predictive framework tended to take reality as factual, perceptible and therefore as immediate material for ''weak signal analysis'' and any equivalents like ''early warning'' for instance. Advocates of a more open and emergent view of what might happen 'later than now', including those taking a strong view on the indeterminate and novel nature of emergence in complex systems, envisaged reality as being mediated by, on the one hand our perceptual and cognitive modeling capabilities, and on the other hand, by the interactive and most often multi-differentiated activity of social groups trying to make sense of the reality they try to cope with. The first two sections of this Special Issue provide a good illustration of the contours of the debate between those who stress a predictive view of the nature and importance of weak signals versus those who put the emphasis on ambiguity and interpretation, regarding signals as constructive elements. Other interesting and related debates took place over the meaning of many key terms, in particular the ''present''. How thick or thin is the present? Is it only an ever fleeting ''thin'' Futures 44 (2012) 195-197 1 The way that COST actions work is by gathering together specialists from participating nations (21 for COST A22) in a succession of workshops in order to exchange ideas, share experiences and envisage new directions and implications for research. It is one of the longest-running joint European research activities, started as an ''inter-governmental framework for cooperation'' amongst European nations in 1971. (http://www.cost.esf.org/about_cost).
Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013
ABSTRACT The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and stru... more ABSTRACT The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations. Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www.innovation-futures.org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied in order to underpin the recognition of structural transformation:•Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends.•Visual inspiration, to mobilise tacit knowledge, support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among people with different disciplinary backgrounds.•Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes•Extended openness for diversity, to avoid the exclusive interpretation of weak signals only in the context of the existing structures.The findings of the project indicate interesting changes in the nexus of innovation demand and innovation supply. A wide variety of hybrid value creation models with novel configurations of innovation actors emerged. We explain the approach and findings of the project and discuss in particular the implications for foresight methodology. We argue that all four innovative methodological features contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes.
Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF-Zusammenfassung Fraunhofer ISI und IAO Foresight-Prozess-Im... more Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF-Zusammenfassung Fraunhofer ISI und IAO Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF-Zusammenfassung Fraunhofer ISI und IAO Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF-Zusammenfassung Fraunhofer ISI und IAO Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF 2 Hier: Hebel bei der Schaffung geeigneter (Förder)strukturen. Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF-Zusammenfassung Fraunhofer ISI und IAO Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF Mensch-Technik-Kooperationen Fraunhofer ISI und IAO Foresight-Prozess-Im Auftrag des BMBF 10 Zum Beispiel »Ambient Assisted Living« zur Bewältigung der Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels. 11 Siehe SFB 453, Wirklichkeitsnahe Telepräsenz und Teleaktion, http://www.sfb453.de/. 12 Ein Beispiel für Forschung einer globalen »Scientific Community« ist das Großprojekt der Teilchenbeschleuniger bei Genf der Europäischen Organisation für Kernforschung (CERN).
This paper aims at contributing to theoretical aspects of Foresight from the perspective of the i... more This paper aims at contributing to theoretical aspects of Foresight from the perspective of the interdisciplinary body of knowledge that has become known as STS-Science and Technology Studies (c.f. Jasanoff 1994). Drawing in particular on STS insights on the Social Shaping of Technology (SST) we would like to investigate the possibility of Foresight to support policy makers in influencing innovation trajectories according to societal needs. In this paper, we highlight four different modes of policy support Foresight is expected to deliver: Foresight as systemic innovation policy instrument fostering innovation capability, Foresight orienting innovation towards societal needs, Foresight as agenda setting process and Foresight a provider of anticipatory intelligence as a base for decision making. From these starting points, we turn to Social Shaping of Technology. Central to SST is the idea that technology co-evolves in a complex interaction with society which is reflected in both the design of individual artefacts and systems, and in the direction or trajectory of innovation programmes. Different routes are available, potentially leading to different technological outcomes. This paper discusses some relevant insights on the character of technologies, as well as their social implications, that are problematised and opened up for enquiry in SST; Contingency and constraint of variation, Role of expectations and visions, Importance of downstream phase of innovation, Importance of localisation and Insights on steering possibilities for technological trajectories These insights allow us to elaborate one the concepts of Foresight as a process moderator, Foresight as expectation management, Provision of anticipatory intelligence and Localisation through Foresight.
Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2008
The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project 1 , which aims to develop Fo... more The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project 1 , which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience ("mutual learning") in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on: 1. Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.
The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2009
... These topics should still be in the research or development phase during this time. ... But i... more ... These topics should still be in the research or development phase during this time. ... But in detail, there were differences when looking at the relevancy for economy, relevancy for the quality of life, relevancy for the environment, and so on... ...
Transition Pathways Towards User-Centric Innovation
International Journal of Innovation Management, 2008
Although various user-centric innovation concepts have proved successful in niche markets and spe... more Although various user-centric innovation concepts have proved successful in niche markets and specific industries, there is yet little understanding how these models may become more widely diffused in manufacturing industries. We apply an evolutionary economics perspective to explore possible transition pathways towards user-centric innovation paradigms. In order to understand not only the past but also possible future transition trajectories, we complement the co-evolution analysis with prospective elements such as scenario building and roadmapping. Using this combined approach, we identify possible future working configurations of user-centric innovation models and specify a number of diverse elements relevant on different levels of the transition arena. We argue that these insights can be used to define and set-up dedicated learning spaces for user-centric innovation. It is suggested that similar approaches may be useful for companies and policy actors to guide governance of chan...
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Research Reports by Philine Warnke
Papers by Philine Warnke