Zsolt Kiss

University of Oxford, Department of Politics and International Relations, Alumnus

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Habit or Reasoned Decision? Electoral Campaigns and the Effect of Emotions on Vote Choice

Campaign professionals claim that campaigns have significant effects on vote choice; however, the... more Campaign professionals claim that campaigns have significant effects on vote choice; however, the academic literature is unable to corroborate their claims: it most often shows that the effects of campaigns are minimal, if at all present. I argue that this mismatch can potentially be mitigated if the indirect effect of campaigns, manifested through emotions, is taken into consideration. While previous research shows that campaigns induce emotions, this paper examines the effects distinct emotions have in the vote choice function. Using data collected before the 2012 British General Elections, the analyses show that, consistent with the expectations, emotions affect vote choice indirectly by altering the relative importance of the habitual (partisanship) versus reasoned (issue and leaders) components of the vote choice function. Consequently, I conclude that it is entirely possible that campaigns affect vote choice indirectly, by influencing whether the decision mechanism a voter relies on is dominated by habit or it is a reasoned evaluation of the political context.

The effect of higher education on graduates’ attitudes : secondary analysis of the British Social Attitudes Survey

You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, und... more

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The Emotional Voter: An Experimental Study of the Moderating Effects of Emotions on Partisan Behavior

ZSOLT KISS University of Oxford Department of Politics and International Relations Manor Road Bui... more

The effectiveness of probation supervision towards reducing reoffending: A Rapid Evidence Assessment

Probation Journal

In response to the lack of universal agreement about ‘What Works’ in probation supervision (Trott... more In response to the lack of universal agreement about ‘What Works’ in probation supervision (Trotter, 2013) we undertook a Rapid Evidence Assessment of the empirical literature. Our analysis of research into the effect of probation supervision reducing reoffending included 13 studies, all of which employed robust research designs, originating in the USA, UK, Canada and Australia, published between 2006 and 2016. We describe the papers included in our review, and the meta-analyses of their findings. Overall, we found that the likelihood of reoffending was shown to be lower for offenders who had been exposed to some type of supervision. This finding should be interpreted cautiously however, given the heterogeneity of the studies. We suggest future research and methodological considerations to develop the evidence base concerning the effectiveness of probation supervision.

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Paired Reading Evaluation report and Executive summary

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Negative campaigning, emotions and political participation

by Zsolt Kiss and Sara Hobolt

 This paper examines the role emotions play in mediating the effect of campaigns on electoral be... more  This paper examines the role emotions play in mediating the effect of campaigns on electoral behavior. We argue that election campaigns can shape voters' emotions about the parties which, in turn affect peoples likelihood of turning out. Specifically, we hypothesize that voters who receive campaign communications that make them feel enthusiastic about their preferred party are more likely to turn out, while those who experience anger towards the preferred party or out-parties are more likely to withdraw from politics and not vote. In the middle ground, we expect people who are anxious towards an out-party to increase their likelihood of turning out while anxiety towards the preferred party is not seen to affect turnout intentions. To test these propositions, we employ both experimental and panel data. We conduct a laboratory experiment, using the Dynamic Process Tracing Environment software, in the context of the 2010 British general elections. This experimental setup allows us to examine the role of emotions in the electoral process in a fully controlled environment, and thus offers a distinctive contribution to our understanding of the psychological mechanisms that drive turnout. Finally, by using panel data we replicate the results obtained in the experiment and increase external validity offering further support for the theory.

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Habit or reasoned decision? Electoral campaigns and the effect of emotions on vote choice.

 Campaign professionals claim that campaigns have significant effects on vote choice; however, t... more  Campaign professionals claim that campaigns have significant effects on vote choice; however, the academic literature is unable to corroborate their claims: it most often shows that the effects of campaigns are minimal, if at all present. I argue that this mismatch can potentially be mitigated if the indirect effect of campaigns, manifested through emotions, is taken into consideration. While previous research shows that campaigns induce emotions, this paper examines the effects distinct emotions have in the vote choice function. Using data collected before the 2012 British General Elections, the analyses show that, consistent with the expectations, emotions affect vote choice indirectly by altering the relative importance of the habitual (partisanship) versus reasoned (issue and leaders) components of the vote choice function. Consequently, I conclude that it is entirely possible that campaigns affect vote choice indirectly, by influencing whether the decision mechanism a voter relies on is dominated by habit or it is a reasoned evaluation of the political context.  This study was funded by the EU's 7th Framework Marie Curie Initial Training Network, ELECDEM: Training Network in Electoral Democracy. I am grateful to Ray Duch and the British CCAP project for providing the data for the empirical component of this study.

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The Emotional Voter. An Experimental Study of the Moderating Effect of Emotions on Partisan Behavior

 This paper examines the role emotions play in moderating partisan electoral behavior. We argue ... more  This paper examines the role emotions play in moderating partisan electoral behavior. We argue that election campaigns can shape voters' emotions about their preferred party in ways that moderate the extent to which they rely on party identification. Specifically, we hypothesize that voters who receive campaign communications that make them feel enthusiastic about their preferred party are more likely to vote on the basis of party identification, while those who experience anxiety or anger are more likely to defect from their preferred party. To test these propositions, we conduct a laboratory experiment, using the Dynamic Process Tracing Environment software, in the context of the 2010 British general elections. This experimental setup allows us to examine the role of emotions in the electoral process in a fully controlled environment, and thus offers a distinctive contribution to our understanding of the psychological mechanisms that drive vote choice. By disentangling the effect emotions have on the relationship between partisanship and vote choice, this paper contributes to our understanding of the effect of campaigns on voting behavior.

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