The July 29, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, approved by a 9–3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the likelihood of a rate increase this year. Elevated inflation pressures tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one tightening move before year-end, with September and December meetings now in focus. The new Fed chair’s emphasis on price stability without updated dot-plot guidance has added uncertainty, while incoming CPI and jobs data will serve as key swing factors for September policy expectations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$2,101,977 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
36%
October Meeting
48%
$2,101,977 Vol.
September Meeting
$736,219 Vol.
36%
October Meeting
$405,758 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The July 29, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, approved by a 9–3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the likelihood of a rate increase this year. Elevated inflation pressures tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one tightening move before year-end, with September and December meetings now in focus. The new Fed chair’s emphasis on price stability without updated dot-plot guidance has added uncertainty, while incoming CPI and jobs data will serve as key swing factors for September policy expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,101,977Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The July 29, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, approved by a 9–3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the likelihood of a rate increase this year. Elevated inflation pressures tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one tightening move before year-end, with September and December meetings now in focus. The new Fed chair’s emphasis on price stability without updated dot-plot guidance has added uncertainty, while incoming CPI and jobs data will serve as key swing factors for September policy expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,101,977Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The July 29, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, approved by a 9–3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the likelihood of a rate increase this year. Elevated inflation pressures tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one tightening move before year-end, with September and December meetings now in focus. The new Fed chair’s emphasis on price stability without updated dot-plot guidance has added uncertainty, while incoming CPI and jobs data will serve as key swing factors for September policy expectations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui