Books by Christian Pfister
The paper explores to which extent narrative documentary records on wine production in Central Eu... more The paper explores to which extent narrative documentary records on wine production in Central Europe can be used as a proxy for summer temperatures. Here, we compiled 11 regional series spanning from the early 15th century to 1988. We detrended the data to adjust for long-term biases such as warfare-related population decline. The homogenised regional series were subsequently merged into three supra-regional series: (1) the Mosel series, starting in 1416 and consisting of data from the former city-republic of Metz (France) and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg; (2) the series for Germany, starting in 1511 and mainly originating from the former city-state of Heilbronn; and (3) the third series, starting in 1529 and representing production on the Swiss Plateau. The residuals of the supra-regional yield series were averaged, divided into seven classes, and multiplied by five quality classes. Yield quality indices (YQI) varying between 35 (large and excellent) and 1 (small and undrinkable) significantly correlated with temperatures between May and July. Regression analysis of the composite series revealed that yield and quality primarily depend on the climate conditions from May to July as well as on those in June of the previous year. Crops with a YQI > 28 (rated "good" by traditional winegrowers) were related to aboveaverage May-July temperatures, early grape harvest dates and high tree-ring maximum latewood density values resulting from frequent anticyclonic weather situations. Crops with YQI > 10 could not be uncritically assigned to cold summers since severe winter conditions, and spring frosts sometimes substantially reduced yields without affecting quality, particularly during the Little Ice Age in the marginal Mosel and German areas. Extreme yield fluctuations challenged winegrowing communities. Overproduction induced wastefulness, while crop failures sometimes triggered witch hunts.
The association between climate variability and grain harvest yields has been an important compon... more The association between climate variability and grain harvest yields has been an important component of food security and economy in European history. Yet, inter-regional comparisons of climate-yield relationships have been hampered by locally varying data types and use of different statistical methods. Using a coherent statistical framework, considering the effects of diverse serial correlations on significance, we assess the temperature and hydroclimate (precipitation and drought) signatures in grain harvest yields across varying environmental settings of early modern (c. 1500-1800) Europe. An unprecedentedly large network of yield records from northern (Sweden), central (Switzerland) and southern (Spain) Europe is compared with a diverse set of seasonally and annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions. Considering the effects of different crop types and time-series frequencies, we find within regions consistent climate-harvest yield patterns characterised by a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, a winter temperature and precipitation signal in Switzerland, and spring and annual mean temperature signals in Spain. The regional scale climate-harvest associations are weaker than the recently revealed signals in early modern grain prices, albeit similar to those observed in modern climate-harvest relationships on comparable spatial scales. extreme droughts (e.g., or floods (e.g., Kiss, 2019). However, a number of studies have also investigated the relationship between climate variability and grain yields over longer time periods (e.g.
Papers by Christian Pfister
Climate, History of
A survey on climate change over the last 10 000 years is provided in this article. It highlights ... more A survey on climate change over the last 10 000 years is provided in this article. It highlights natural (orbital elements, solar irradiance, volcanic explosions) and anthropogenic (greenhouse) forcing. The article introduces the reader to Historical Climatology, which reconstructs weather and climate from documentary evidence on daily to seasonal resolutions. Climate change over the last millennium in China, Europe, and the Mediterranean, South America, Japan and Africa is summarized. Dealing with the s ocietal impacts of climate requires the consideration of social and cultural factors, which underlie people's ongoing vulnerability. This article emphasizes the need for case studies combining quantitative and narrative approaches rather than demonstrating the deterministic synchrony of climate and historical events.
Fluctuaciones climáticas y cambio histórico: el clima en Europa Central desde el siglo XVI y su significado para el desarrollo de la población y la agricultura
Quaternary Science Reviews, 2011
A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth's ... more A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth's climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 962e2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European AprileJune precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55 N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.
Climatic trends and anomalies in Europe 1675–1715
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 1996
Fluctuations climatiques et prix céréaliers en Europe du XVI<sup>e</sup>au XX<sup>e</sup>Siècle
Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales, Feb 1, 1988
Les économistes et les géographes, de Thomas W. Tooke à W. Stanley Jevons, Eduard Brückner, Ellsw... more Les économistes et les géographes, de Thomas W. Tooke à W. Stanley Jevons, Eduard Brückner, Ellsworth Huntington, Lord Beveridge et Eli Heckscher, des historiens tels que Jean Georgelin ou Michel Morineau, estiment que les cycles climatiques jouent un rôle important dans la vie économique par leurs répercussions sur les récoltes et leurs influences sur le niveau des prix. La théorie de Labrousse sur la conjoncture préindustrielle considère la récolte (et donc les problèmes climatiques sous-jacents à la production céréalière) comme l'élément déterminant par l'influence qu'elle exerce sur les prix des céréales et le niveau d'emploi rural, ces deux éléments fixant à leur tour les revenus urbains. Ainsi que l'a écrit Fernand Braudel : « rythme, qualité et insuffisance des récoltes régissent la vie matérielle ».
European climate of the past 500 years based on documentary and instrumental data
Climatic Change, May 4, 2010
... Editorial Rudolf Brázdil·Dennis Wheeler·Christian Pfister ... The oceans have also provided v... more ... Editorial Rudolf Brázdil·Dennis Wheeler·Christian Pfister ... The oceans have also provided valuable information through the ships' logbook studies undertaken in recent years (eg Wheeler and Suarez-Dominguez 2006; Wheeler and Garcia-Herrera 2008; Wheeler et al. 2010). ...
The Potential of Documentary Data for the Reconstruction of Past Climates. Early 16th to 19th Century. Switzerland as a Case Study
THE POTENTIAL OF DOCUMENTARY DATA FOR THE RECONSTRUCTION OF PAST CLIMATES. EARLY 16TH TO 19TH CEN... more THE POTENTIAL OF DOCUMENTARY DATA FOR THE RECONSTRUCTION OF PAST CLIMATES. EARLY 16TH TO 19TH CENTURY. SWITZERLAND AS A CASE STUDY. Christian Pfister Historical Institute and Geographical Institute, University of Berne The ...
Une rétrospective météorologique de l'Europe. Un système de reconstitution de l'évolution du temps et du climat en Europe depuis le Moyen Âge central
Histoire & Mesure, 1988
Christian Pfister. Une rétrospective météorologique de l'Europe. Un système de reconstitution... more Christian Pfister. Une rétrospective météorologique de l'Europe. Un système de reconstitution de l'évolution du temps et du climat en Europe depuis le Moyen Age central. L'historien et le climatologue ont besoin de données concernant le climat : à partir de l'exemple Suisse, on montre comment il est possible d'enregistrer et d'homogénéiser toutes les sources disponibles antérieures à la mise en place des stations de mesure au XIXe siècle. Les sources peuvent être d'origine naturelle (pollens, sédiments, cernes) ou créées par l'homme. Ces dernières peuvent être soit des témoignages directs sur les événements météorologiques, soit indirects (notation sur la présence de glace et sur la croissance de la végétation). Les sources écrites directes doivent être critiquées en particulier en ce qui concerne la datation. Ces sources sont très diverses : chroniques, annales, actes, registres, journaux. En Suisse, le matériau réuni pour la période 1525-1863 permet une précision d'autant plus grande qu'on se rapproche de la période contemporaine. Les données indirectes notées sont : les chutes de pluie et de neige, la durée de l'enneigement, la glace sur les lacs, le développement des plantes cultivées, le volume et la qualité de la production vinicole. Les données sont réunies dans une banque de données au niveau de la décade ainsi que sous forme d'indices mensuels. Ces données doivent pouvoir répondre aux questions de l'historien comme à celles d'autres disciplines.
Springer eBooks, Mar 6, 2006
Climate and Economy in Eighteenth-Century Switzerland
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 1978
Climate and Economy in Eighteenth-Century Switzerland Only recently have historians begun to anal... more Climate and Economy in Eighteenth-Century Switzerland Only recently have historians begun to analyze the relationship between climate and economy. Utterstroem's study represents one of the first attempts to examine systemati-cally the effects of climatic fluctuations upon ...
Climate and Society in Europe. The last thousand years. Digital Appendix
Weather and climate and their human impacts during the Thirty Years’ War in Central Europe
The Thirty Years’ War in 1618–1648 CE was an armed military conflict in Europe resulting from cul... more The Thirty Years’ War in 1618–1648 CE was an armed military conflict in Europe resulting from culminating contradictions between advocates of Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches during reformation time of the 17th century on the one hand and power fight for European political hegemony on the other. This war meant for Europe a time of its great wide-ranging devastation. Based on documentary evidence, the paper characterises climate, weather extremes, economic and socio-political events of that time in Central Europe (nowadays Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Switzerland, Austria and Hungary). Natural climate forcing indicates a gradual climate deterioration during the first half of the 17th century, related to a decrease in solar activity towards the Maunder Minimum and increased volcanic activity starting in the early 1640s. More variable temperature, precipitation and drought patterns (with respect to the 1961–1990 reference period) were typical for 1618–1648 in Centra...
General Introduction: Weather, Climate, and Human History
The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, 2018
This chapter introduces the field of climate history, the study of past climates and weather, and... more This chapter introduces the field of climate history, the study of past climates and weather, and their role in human history. Climate history builds on the insights of paleoclimatology (the reconstruction of past climates from the archives of nature) and historical climatology (the reconstruction of past climates and weather from the archives of societies), as well as the methods of conventional history. European climate history emerged as a distinct field of study during the mid-twentieth century and has since developed into a more expansive, global field of study. The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History presents the state of the field with respect to climate history methods, regional results, themes, case studies, and the history of climate science.
Extreme heat and drought in 1473 and their impacts in Europe in the context of the early 1470s
Regional Environmental Change, 2020
Droughts and heatwaves are both dangerous natural hazards with a potential significant impact on ... more Droughts and heatwaves are both dangerous natural hazards with a potential significant impact on human societies. In order to understand these hazards, it is important to examine such extreme events in the past. During the years 1471 to 1474, warm and dry weather conditions are described in most parts of Europe. Until now, these extraordinary years have not been examined in depth. Moreover, in spring 1473, a great drought and heat occurred in Europe. This heatwave facilitated a fast phenological development. During the summer and the autumn, temperatures were unusually high, and extremely dry weather conditions continued. In many places, the harvest began remarkably early, and there was abundant wine of a good quality. Fruit trees even bloomed for the second time in autumn. The heat and drought had a considerable impact on the environment and also caused damage to agriculture and society, including water shortages, harvest failures and rising food prices. The weather conditions of the years from 1471 to 1474 were outstanding during the fifteenth century and the heatwave and drought, as well as impacts on environment, economy, and society in the year 1473, were comparable to—if not more severe—than those in the year 1540. Learning from past climate anomalies like the 1473 drought in Europe is important for evaluating more recent and future climate extremes under increasing anthropogenic pressure.
Fluctuaciones climáticas y cambio histórico: el clima en Europa Central desde el siglo XVI y su significado para el desarrollo de la población y la agricultura
Climate, History of
International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2015
A survey on climate change over the last 10 000 years is provided in this article. It highlights ... more A survey on climate change over the last 10 000 years is provided in this article. It highlights natural (orbital elements, solar irradiance, volcanic explosions) and anthropogenic (greenhouse) forcing. The article introduces the reader to Historical Climatology, which reconstructs weather and climate from documentary evidence on daily to seasonal resolutions. Climate change over the last millennium in China, Europe, and the Mediterranean, South America, Japan and Africa is summarized. Dealing with the s ocietal impacts of climate requires the consideration of social and cultural factors, which underlie people's ongoing vulnerability. This article emphasizes the need for case studies combining quantitative and narrative approaches rather than demonstrating the deterministic synchrony of climate and historical events.
1540-Climatic Change Supplementaries 10584 2014 1184 MOESM1 ESM
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Books by Christian Pfister
Papers by Christian Pfister