Annals of Statistics, Mar 29, 2012
Many methods for causal inference generate directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that formalize causal r... more Many methods for causal inference generate directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that formalize causal relations between n variables.
Given the joint distribution on all these variables, the DAG contains all information about how intervening on one variable
changes the distribution of the other n-1 variables.
However, quantifying the causal influence of one variable on another one remains a non-trivial question.
Here we propose a set of natural, intuitive postulates that a measure of causal strength should satisfy. We then introduce a communication scenario, where edges in a DAG play the role of channels that can be locally corrupted by interventions. Causal strength is then the relative entropy distance between the old and the new distribution.
Many other measures of causal strength have been proposed, including average causal effect, transfer entropy, directed information, and information flow. We explain how they fail to satisfy the postulates on simple DAGs of <= 3 nodes. Finally, we investigate the behavior of our measure on time-series, supporting our claims with experiments on simulated data.Here we propose a measure for causal strength that refers to direct effects and measure the "strength of an arrow" or a set of arrows. It is based on a hypothetical intervention that modifies the joint distribution by cutting the corresponding edge. The causal strength is then the relative entropy distance between the old and the new distribution.
We discuss other measures of causal strength like the average causal effect, transfer entropy and information flow and describe their limitations. We argue that our measure is also more appropriate for time series than the known ones.
Finally, we discuss conceptual problems in defining the strength of indirect effects.
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Papers by David Balduzzi
The backbone of almost all deep learning algorithms is backpropagation, which is simply a gradient computation distributed over a neural network. The main ingredients of the framework are thus, unsurprisingly: (i) game theory, to formalize distributed optimization; and (ii) communication protocols, to track the flow of zeroth and first-order information. The framework allows natural definitions of semantics (as the meaning encoded in functions), representations (as functions whose semantics is chosen to optimized a criterion) and grammars (as communication protocols equipped with first-order convergence guarantees).
Much of the essay is spent discussing examples taken from the literature. The ultimate aim is to develop a graphical language for describing the structure of deep learning algorithms that backgrounds the details of the optimization procedure and foregrounds how the components interact. Inspiration is taken from probabilistic graphical models and factor graphs, which capture the essential structural features of multivariate distributions.
We first decompose Backprop into a collection of interacting learning algorithms; provide regret bounds on the performance of these sub-algorithms; and factorize Backprop's error signals. Using these results, we derive a new credit assignment algorithm for nonparametric regression, Kickback, that is significantly simpler than Backprop. Finally, we provide a sufficient condition for Kickback to follow error gradients, and show that Kickback matches Backprop's performance on real-world regression benchmarks.
This note focuses on a specific question: How can neurons use vast quantities of unlabeled data to speed up learning from the comparatively rare labels provided by reward systems? As a partial answer, we propose randomized co-training as a biologically plausible meta-algorithm satisfying the above requirements. As evidence, we describe a biologically-inspired algorithm, Correlated Nystrom Views (XNV) that achieves state-of-the-art performance in semi-supervised learning, and sketch work in progress on a neuronal implementation.
Given the joint distribution on all these variables, the DAG contains all information about how intervening on one variable
changes the distribution of the other n-1 variables.
However, quantifying the causal influence of one variable on another one remains a non-trivial question.
Here we propose a set of natural, intuitive postulates that a measure of causal strength should satisfy. We then introduce a communication scenario, where edges in a DAG play the role of channels that can be locally corrupted by interventions. Causal strength is then the relative entropy distance between the old and the new distribution.
Many other measures of causal strength have been proposed, including average causal effect, transfer entropy, directed information, and information flow. We explain how they fail to satisfy the postulates on simple DAGs of <= 3 nodes. Finally, we investigate the behavior of our measure on time-series, supporting our claims with experiments on simulated data.Here we propose a measure for causal strength that refers to direct effects and measure the "strength of an arrow" or a set of arrows. It is based on a hypothetical intervention that modifies the joint distribution by cutting the corresponding edge. The causal strength is then the relative entropy distance between the old and the new distribution.
We discuss other measures of causal strength like the average causal effect, transfer entropy and information flow and describe their limitations. We argue that our measure is also more appropriate for time series than the known ones.
Finally, we discuss conceptual problems in defining the strength of indirect effects.