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International order is not simply declining – it is changing in structure

Charting Global Futures

What will the world look like in a few years' time? How are the decline of global governance, the rise of new conflict lines and the fading of the liberal international order affecting international organizations? Are these developments simply due to the decline of hegemony or the waning appeal of the liberal narrative? Michael Zürn, Director of the unit Global Governance at the WZB, analyzes the relationship of these often-conflated concepts with the new NALFI framework (Normativity, Authority, Liberalism, Fragmentation, Inequality). 

In his study “Charting Global Futures: a Configurative Perspective on International Order” Zürn argues that the decline of global governance, the fading of the liberal international order, and growing pressure on international organizations are connected, but not identical. The author makes three core points: 

  • The “liberal international” order that emerged at the end of the 20th century was built on a global governance system – and already contained the seeds of contestation and decline. 

  • A systemic conflict then emerged, with liberal democracies and their allies defending the order against authoritarian challenges. 

  • Most recently, the rise of authoritarian forces within liberal democracies has changed the picture again, creating a more complex tripartite structure of power and ideology, in which liberal democracies are confronted with two separate authoritarian blocs. 

The study suggests that we are moving towards a world in which a purely bilateral hegemonic conflict between the USA and China is embedded in a tripartite ideological structure with populist authoritarians (e.g. Russia), bureaucratic authoritarians (e.g. China), and liberal democracies (most of them in the EU) as the major players. With Trump's second term, the US is increasingly moving into the populist authoritarian camp, making liberal democracies the militarily and technologically weakest of the three camps. Zürn concludes: “We live in an age of transformation. The current international order is in the making, determined by the liberal GG system as a background condition, the liberal democracies as defenders of this order, and different types of intense contestations”. 

“Challenges to International Orders: Causes and Consequences” is also the topic of our 2nd Annual Interdisciplinary Conference, which will take place from 7–9 October at the WZB. The scientific conference will bring together researchers from political science, sociology, economics, and law to examine how international orders are being challenged and reshaped ─ and what this means for states, societies, and global cooperation.  

11/6/26, kes