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Latest Polymarket News and Insights | Yellow

Trust Yellow.com for the latest and most reliable Polymarket news and insights. Stay informed with accurate updates, expert analyses, and comprehensive articles on Polymarket trends and market movements.

News

Two of the biggest prediction market venues carry no bet on the year's strongest storm, now packing 160 mph winds. (Image: Shutterstock)

Hurricane Genevieve Hits 160 MPH And No Prediction Market Prices It

Hurricane Genevieve reached Category 5 strength on Monday with 160 mph winds, yet no contract on Polymarket or Kalshi prices the storm directly. Key Points: Genevieve became a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning, the first eastern Pacific storm to reach that strength in two years. Polymarket list

Exchanges pricing Marvel's Comic-Con casting reveals carried the wrong names, or skipped the question entirely. (Image: Shutterstock)

Ghost Rider And Black Panther: Prediction Markets Whiffed On Marvel's Two Biggest Casting Reveals

Marvel cast David Jonsson as Black Panther and Ryan Gosling as Ghost Rider on Saturday, two reveals prediction markets priced wrong or not at all. Key Points: Marvel Studios named David Jonsson as T'Challa's son in Black Panther 3, dated for Dec. 15, 2028. Polymarket's casting market listed only Joh

A near-even flyweight market on the UFC Abu Dhabi card left Erceg and Temirov separated by roughly one cent. (Image: Shutterstock)

Polymarket And Kalshi Give Temirov A 52% Edge Over Steve Erceg

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi priced Saturday's Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov flyweight bout at 52 cents to 48 cents, the tightest market on the UFC Abu Dhabi card. Key Points: Erceg and Temirov opened near even money on both platforms, closer than any other fight on the Abu Dhabi main card. Po

Traders have poured hundreds of millions into contracts on LeBron James' next NBA team, with Miami now the clear favorite. (Image: Shutterstock)

Prediction Markets Turn LeBron James Free Agency Into A $245M Trade

Traders have pushed more than $245 million into prediction markets on LeBron James' next NBA team, with the Miami Heat now priced near 50 percent. Key Points: Combined trading on James' next team has topped $245 million across Kalshi and Polymarket. A Heat video posted and deleted Tuesday night lift

Michigan residents are shut out of trading Friday's Royals game in Detroit while the rest of the country prices it. (Image: Shutterstock)

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: Polymarket And Kalshi Go Dark

Michigan's $120,000 daily fine keeps Kalshi from selling contracts on Friday night's Kansas City Royals game at the Detroit Tigers' Comerica Park. Key Points: Kansas City visits Detroit at 6:40 p.m. ET Friday in the second game of a four-game series at Comerica Park. A state court order has kept Kal

Research

Polymarket Wants $1B At A $20B Valuation, The Timing Tells You Everything

Murtuza Merchant19 hours ago

Prediction markets have spent years being dismissed as a niche experiment for crypto-native degenerates and political junkies. The numbers coming out of 2026 suggest the dismissal is over. Polymarket is in talks to raise $1 billion at a $20 billion valuation, just four months after its last funding

How a first-round tennis match in Baja became a window into Robinhood's reliance on Kalshi for its event contract supply. (Image: Shutterstock)

Polymarket's Nine Anonymous Whales Control Billions In Prediction Bets

Murtuza MerchantMay 27, 2026

Nine anonymous crypto wallets have reportedly gained outsized sway over the outcomes of some of Polymarket's most hotly contested prediction markets. Retail traders are furious. Many of them believe the platform's central promise — crowd-sourced truth — has been quietly hollowed out. The claim comes

How Prediction Markets Became Crypto’s Fastest-Growing Capital Flow Machine

How Prediction Markets Became Crypto’s Fastest-Growing Capital Flow Machine

Alexey BondarevMay 15, 2026

Prediction markets spent most of the past decade as a niche curiosity. Then the 2024 U.S. presidential election arrived, and a single platform processed more volume on the outcome than some mid-cap stock exchanges moved in a day. Monthly notional volume for the sector has since surged past $24 billi

Prediction markets transform uncertainty into tradeable assets as industry volume surges past $44 billion (Image: Shutterstock)

The Prediction Market Economy: How Everything Became A Bet

Alexey BondarevApr 09, 2026

Prediction markets have surged from academic curiosity to a $44 billion industry in under three years. What began as simple election wagers on Wall Street in the 1860s now prices everything from Federal Reserve rate decisions to whether OpenAI will announce achieving AGI before 2027. The growth refl

A dark web seller's 300,000 record dump is dismissed by Polymarket as repackaged public data tied to its open bug bounty. (Image: Shutterstock)

From CFTC Fine To NYSE Partnership: The Unlikely Rise Of The World's Largest Prediction Market

Kostiantyn TsentsuraMar 13, 2026

A five-year-old blockchain startup with no trading fees and a $1.4 million regulatory fine on its record is now valued at $9 billion, backed by the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and routinely cited by Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal as a real-time barometer for finan

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A single book on Polymarket holds $2 billion as Kalshi scatters the same World Cup wager over 48 markets and collects the fees. (Image: Shutterstock)

How Polymarket And Kalshi Actually Price Real-World Events

Alexey BondarevAug 02, 2026

Polls ask people what they think. Prediction markets ask them to put money behind it. That single difference changes everything about how accurate the resulting probability turns out to be. When Kalshi listed odds on the 2026 World Cup alongside Polymarket, millions of dollars moved within minutes —

Prediction Markets Move $4B On World Cup, Know The Mechanics Now

Prediction Markets Move $4B On World Cup, Know The Mechanics Now

Murtuza MerchantJul 15, 2026

Prediction markets placed more than $4.2 billion on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner alone. That is not a bet with a bookmaker. No house set those odds. Every price you see on Polymarket or Kalshi was produced by real people trading shares against each other, and the mechanics behind that process are

Six exchange-traded funds from Roundhill, tied to U.S. election results, are scheduled to begin trading in brokerage accounts May 5. (Image: Shutterstock)

What Are Prediction Markets? How They Work, Who Uses Them, And Why They Matter In 2026

Alexey BondarevApr 26, 2026

Most people bet on sports. Prediction markets let you bet on almost anything else: elections, central bank decisions, tech product launches, even weather events. The twist is that the prices on these markets are not arbitrary. They behave like probabilities, and the crowd setting them is often more

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