Event history analysis

Two types of explanations of state government innovation have been proposed:internal determinantsmodels (which posit that the factors causing a state government to innovate are political, economic, and social characteristics of a state) andregional diffusionmodels (which point toward the role of policy adoptions by neighboring states in prompting a state to adopt). We show that the two are conceptually compatible, relying on Mohr's theory of organizational innovation. Then we develop and test a unified explanation of state lottery adoptions reflecting both internal and regional influences. The empirical results provide a great degree of support for Mohr's theory. For the empirical analysis, we rely onevent history analysis, a form of pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, which we believe may be useful in a wide variety of subfields of political science. Event history analysis may be able to explain important forms of political behavior (by individuals, organizations, ...

Research shows that at the global level, there has been an increased influx of women into the job market since 1970s, a phenomenon that may be called a kind of gender revolution. Since heterosexual marriage relies a lot on successful negotiation of additional responsibilities shouldered by the wife in a society marked by breadwinner-homemaker model of family, it seems a prudent exercise to study the impact of spousal employment on marital quality. This article tries to investigate the trend form an Indian perspective taking into account the various ways in which marital quality and its constituent dimensions are related to spousal employment. The key findings suggest that wives’ employment tends to increase both marital quality and marital stability among Indian couples.

UNE FORME DE COMMUNICATION DES TEMPS MODERNES ANABELA CARDOSO (ITC) est un domaine de la recherche psychique qui a capté l'attention de plusieurs milliers de personnes partout dans le monde, en particulier au cours des deux dernières décennies. Pourtant, étonnamment, beaucoup de gens n'en ont toujours pas entendu parler. Le terme lui-même-Transcommunication Instrumentale-sera déroutant pour beaucoup. Il peut littéralement être compris comme « communication au-delà » ou « plus loin au-delà », le mot « instrumental » faisant référence à l'implication d'appareils électroniques. L'ITC est donc une forme de communication par médiation électronique avec quelque chose (apparemment la prochaine dimension de l'existence) au-delà de notre réalité connue.

Migrant descendants in several European countries show increasingly lower fertility rates, sometimes even lower than native-born peers-a pattern defying conventional expectations that migrant descendants either maintain origin-country patterns or converge toward host-country norms. Using Finnish register data (1985-1994 birth cohorts), we analyze first-birth timing across six ancestry groups spanning three migrant generations: 1.5, second, and 2.5 (children of mixed or exogamous couples). Entry into parenthood occurs progressively later across these generations, with the 2.5 generation surpassing even native Finns in postponement. We tested four mechanisms-urban residence, educational investment, economic instability, and barriers to union formation-but none explained the delay. Our study contributes to the literature by, first, underscoring the limitations of the convergence narrative to account for the fertility behaviour of migrant descendants and, second, by drawing special attention to the 2.5G as a sui generis group whose behaviour requires further conceptual and empirical attention.

Cohabitation has become an increasingly common context for childrearing, yet children living with cohabiting parents often exhibit poorer academic outcomes than peers with married parents. This study examines whether these disparities stem from cohabitation itself, subsequent family transitions, or underlying mechanisms related to resources, stress, or selectivity. Using data from the Growing Up in Australia: Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), we follow 920 children born to cohabiting parents and track family structure changes alongside teacher-rated literacy and mathematics performance from ages 6 to 11 years. Generalized estimating equation models show that, although children whose parents transitioned to single-parent or other non-cohabiting arrangements initially appear to score lower academically, these differences are no longer significant once resource, stress, and selectivity variables are included. Instead, parental education, parental efficacy, homeownership, extracurricular participation, residential mobility, and parents' region of origin more consistently predicts educational outcomes. Children with stably cohabiting parents and those whose parents later married do not differ significantly. Findings suggest that among children born to cohabiting parents in Australia, differences in later educational outcomes are largely explained by differences in parental education, efficacy, housing stability, and related factors, rather than by cohabitation or family instability alone.

Previous research has investigated various factors that influence joint venture (JV) termination. Yet the majority of studies do not distinguish between different types of JVs, particularly whether a JV is related or unrelated to the parent firm. Due to their inherent differences, related and unrelated JVs are likely to evolve distinctly, and their tendency to terminate may also differ under various conditions. This study takes a contingency approach and argues the impact of various factors on JV termination depends upon relatedness. An event history analysis finds increases in environmental uncertainty and higher resource complementarity reduce the likelihood that a firm will terminate unrelated JVs as compared to related JVs. Conversely parent firm performance and wider JV scope increase the likelihood that the firm will terminate unrelated JVs as compared to related JVs. The findings suggest the need to consider JV relatedness in understanding of JV evolution and termination.

Popular belief suggests that poverty is the primary cause of terrorism. However, several prominent studies have found little or no empirical support for this notion. I argue that these studies often overlook specific terrorist groups that recruit individuals from economically disadvantaged backgrounds. I propose conceptual frameworks that connect poor economic conditions to four distinct political objectives of terrorist groups: ethnonationalist, left-wing, right-wing, and religious fundamentalist. To support my argument, I analyze a sample of 726 terrorist groups from 1970 to 2016. My findings indicate that poverty and inequality have a significant and positive effect on the activities of left-wing and right-wing terrorist groups, but do not have the same impact on ethnonationalist and religious fundamentalist terrorist groups. Interestingly, these significant relationships diminish when conventional statistical analysis is applied to assess the effect of poverty on all terrorist activities combined. I conclude that poverty alleviation measures can be effective counterterrorism strategies, as they may ameliorate a primary motivator of economically disadvantaged individuals engaging in left-wing and right-wing terrorism.

Short abstract (300 words) Previous research has shown that parental background is an important predictor of union dissolution, with the intergenerational transmission of divorce gaining the most attention. Next to parental divorce is parental socio-economic status (SES) also shown to be an important determinant for union dissolution decisions. Although the findings from previous studies are not consistent, most existing studies show that the higher the status of the parents, the more likely individuals are to dissolve their own union. However, all these studies are conducted in a single country, while it can be expected that the strength of the impact of parental status on union dissolution depends on the societal context and the specific opportunities this contexts offers. Therefore, the current study aims at better understanding the link between parental socioeconomic status (including both the educational and the occupational level of parents) and the risk on union dissolution f...

Neighbouring towns in urban clusters of Canada exhibit similar levels of socio-economic development. However, when measured by different development indicators, inter-town development association differs in both nature and degree. In core areas, for instance, only population and housing variables exhibit a strong spatial association, while that of employment-related variablesaverage income, and unemployment rateis weaker. This tendency reflects the fundamental difference between the two groups of variables. While population and housing variables are associated with the clustering of residents in socially homogenous areas, inter-town development similarity in respect to employment-related variables is weaker, apparently due to long-distance commuting. The paper discusses the importance of urban clustering as a factor in regional development policies and programs, and provides support for including cluster-related elements in a strategy to enhance urban growth in underdeveloped regions.

Something unprecedented happened in the May 2025 Philippine midterm elections: entire provincial races were dominated by women candidates. In Ilocos Norte, Guimaras, Zamboanga Del Sur and Samar, every candidate for provincial governor was female. 1 Nationwide, more women were elected governors than ever before. On the surface, it appeared to be a milestone for Philippine democracy. 2 In a nation where men had long shaped local politics, more doors appear to be opening for women. But are they? While the trend appears empowering, these women did not rise from grassroots movements or climb the ranks of strong, programmatic political parties. Their ascent was not driven by bold social policy reforms or ideological shifts among voters. Instead, they were convenient substitutes for male members of their dynasties or force multipliers of their political clan. For example, wives stepped in for term-limited husbands; daughters filled their fathers' shoes; mothers and sisters carried on the family name. Rather than

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Dans son audition à l’Assemblée nationale par la Mission d'information de la Conférence des présidents sur les causes et conséquences de la baisse de la natalité en France, Gérard-François Dumont après avoir situé scientifiquement le phénomène a recentré le débat parlementaire sur une vision holistique du phénomène de la baisse de la natalité : non seulement comme un chiffre statistique, mais comme l’expression d’interactions complexes entre choix individuels, politiques publiques et conditions socio-économiques. Il a proposé des axes d’analyse conceptualisés et des principes structurants pour envisager des réponses politiques adaptées à long terme.

This paper traces the development of the notions of dispersion, in demography and in probability, distinguishing two main meanings for this term: the one first, to scatter, to cast here and there; in second, to separate the elements, to break the unity of a set. This development was initiated by the work of Pascal and Fermat for probability and Graunt

This study examines the narratives of returnee-migrant entrepreneurs to India, focusing on the reasons for their return and the challenges they encountered while resettling in India. Study has used content analysis on data collected through semistructured interviews of 40 returnee entrepreneurs to India. Exposure to diverse business environments, global best practice and family has been a driving force behind their return, but returnee entrepreneurs, in our study encountered significant hurdles influenced by various factors. These challenges, rooted in governmental bureaucracy, cultural adjustments, mentorship gaps, lack of trust, and networking disparities. These hurdles often impede the success of returnee ventures in the home country. The paper recommends concentrating on the reintegration plan that these returning entrepreneurs need to obtain the expertise they acquired while abroad, as well as the effect of their return on home country. Addressing these hurdles requires concerted efforts from various stakeholders, including governments, industry players, and support organizations. Streamlining regulatory processes, fostering cross-cultural understanding, providing targeted mentorship programs, combating biases, and facilitating networking opportunities can create a more conducive environment for returnee entrepreneurship, unlocking their potential to drive innovation and economic growth.

We like to thank the students in the MSc in Population Studies programme, who made extensive use of the Netherlands Fertility and Family Surveys 1993 and 1998 as part of the coursework for 'Life history data analysis' and 'Multistate Demography'. Special thanks goes to drs. José Dias, who developed the procedure used in this paper to infer the month of interview. The contribution of drs. Karen Haandrikman in the preparation of the English version of the original Public Use Data File is greatly appreciated. The draft report was submitted to Statistics Netherlands. We are grateful to drs. Arie de Graaf of Statistics Netherlands (CBS) for his careful reading, his comments and suggestions. The report also benefited from the extensive comments by dr. Sabu Padmadas, drs. José Dias and drs. Sarbani Banerjee.

The decision to educate our students via in-person or online learning environments while COVID-19 is unrestrained is a false choice, when the clear path to achieve our chief objective safely, the education of our students, can be done online. Our decision-making should be guided by the overriding principle that people matter more than money. We recognize that lost tuition revenue if students delay or defer education is an institutional concern, but we posit that many students and parents would prefer a safer online alternative to riskier in-person options, especially as we get closer to fall, and American death tolls rise. This Article argues the extra stress of trying to maintain safety from infection with a return to campus will make teaching and learning less effective. While high density classrooms promote virus transmission and potentially super-spreader events, we can take the lessons we learned during the spring and provide courses without the stressors of spreading the virus...

Ce numéro spécial de Matrix : une revue d'études matriculturelles examine la vie des hommes sous différents angles matriculturels. La matriculture est un concept issu de l'anthropologie interprétative de Clifford Geertz, qui a développé sa théorie des systèmes culturels à partir de la compréhension des éléments symboliques constitutifs des cultures humaines. Marie-Françoise Guédon, Linnéa Rowlatt, et Angela Sumegi ont précisé la définition de la matriculture comme l'ensemble des aspects d'un système culturel propres aux femmes. Les articles, les entrevues et les recensions du livres de ce numéro spécial illustrent deux tendances qui méritent d'être approfondies. Premièrement, les hommes jouent un rôle crucial dans la création, la mise en oeuvre et le maintien des matricultures. Deuxièmement, les entrevues publiées dans ce numéro spécial indiquent que les femmes des sociétés autochtones ont historiquement joué un rôle essentiel dans la préservation, la revitalisation et la décolonisation de leurs cultures. De plus, les femmes poursuivent ce travail essentiel dans le monde d'aujourd'hui, qu'elles soient issues de sociétés à système de parenté matrilinéaire, patrilinéaire ou bilatéral.

Why do some international conflicts diffuse and expand beyond its initiators? This dissertation answers this question by identifying the potential third party states to a conflict and focusing on their decisions to join (or not) in an ongoing conflict. Why do some third parties intervene in militarized conflicts, while others do not? The potential joiner's decision to join an ongoing dispute is influenced by two factors -(1) the degree of affinity i.e. the level of shared strategic, economic and political interests it shares with both sides of the dispute, and (2) the level and nature of its interactions with other potential joiners to the dispute, and other states in international politics, which provide opportunities or places constraints on its decision to join. This paper uses social network analysis to test its logic. Affinity is measured by the 'structural equivalence' between a potential joiner and the dispute initiators on both sides of the dispute. It is the extent to which they have the same allies, trade partners and are members of the same international government organizations (IGOs). This project posits that a potential joiner is constrained in its decision to join an ongoing dispute by its position in network spaces of rivalries, international trade, and IGO affiliations. The hypotheses are tested using data on potential joiners to Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) between 1816 and 2001. Empirical tests support many of the theoretical propositions. A potential joiner is highly likely to intervene in disputes when it has asymmetric levels of affinities induced by having common allies and shared international organizations with the dispute initiators. A potential joiner's decision to enter an ongoing dispute is constrained by their centrality in rivalry and international government organization networks. iii Scholarly literatures on diffusion of wars, and third party interventions, have tried answering these questions. The diffusion of wars scholarship treats war as a disease that 'infects' any country in contact with those fighting the war, thereby making them susceptible to joining the war as well (Most and Starr 1980, Yamamoto and Bremer 1980, Most et al 1989, Siverson and Starr 1991). "Warring alliances" and "warring borders" are the primary points of contact through which the disease spreads (Siverson and Starr 1991). Interventions literature shifts the focus of inquiry to the third party and seeks to identify the states that commonly join conflicts, and uncover their motivations for doing so (Altfeld and Bueno de Mesquita 1979; Werner and Lemke 1997; Gartzke and Gleditsch 2003). Both these literatures collectively suffer from some important conceptual and methodological flaws, which undermine the explanatory power of their findings. Scholars who study diffusion of wars conceptualize third party joining taking place through a contagious process in which those third parties have little choice to abstain from the conflicts. Those who examine third party interveners and their reasons for joining conflicts assumed that those states perceive wars and lower level disputes similarly and have the same decision-making calculus for both types of events. 5

Après une analyse des axes suim par les politiques en matière de population au Cameroun, tant dans le domaine de la fécondité que dans celui de la mortalité ou des migrations, les auteurs s'attachent à développer les principaux aspects de la planification des ressources humaines. L'accent est porté sur la scolarisation, l'emploi et la santé. La planification est très liée aux données statistiques de base disponibles et aux résultats de la recherche scientifique, dont un bilan succinct est présenté, accompagné d'un inventaire détaillé des différentes opérations de coUecte réalisées au Cameroun.

White, M., Muhidin, S., Stiff, C. and Knight, R. (2005). Migration and Fertility in Coastal Ghana: An Event History Analysis. In Samuel Agyei-Mensah, John B. Casterline and Dominic Kofi Agyeman (Ed.), Reproductive Change in Ghana: Recent Patterns and Future ...

This study investigates how differences in globalization exposure and national culture between international joint venture (IJV) partner firms influence the likelihood of IJV termination. Building on prior research that has largely treated inter-partner differences as composite constructs, we instead examine the specific dimensions of globalization exposure and cultural orientations, thereby offering a more granular understanding. Drawing from a comprehensive panel dataset of 24,957 IJVs formed across 55 countries between 1991 and 2016, we also consider the IJV host country's economic development as a contingency factor. Our findings indicate that certain inter-partner differences can be functional, reducing the rate of IJV termination, while others are dysfunctional and increase termination likelihood. Moreover, differences in specific dimensions become more or less functional depending on whether the IJV is hosted in an emerging versus a developed market context. Overall, our findings deepen the IJV literature and provide meaningful insights on strategic alliance formation.

Since its introduction by Graunt in 1662, the scientific study of population, initially called political arithmetick, has become possible not only for demography but also for epidemiology, political economy, and other fields. For more than 200 years, researchers adopted a cross-sectional approach in which social facts in a given period exist independently of the individuals who experience them, and can be explained by various characteristics of the society of that period. After the end of World War II, researchers examined social facts from a new angle, introducing individuals' life experience. This longitudinal approach holds that the occurrence of a given event, during the lifetime of a birth cohort, can be studied in a population that maintains all its characteristics as long as the phenomenon persists. However, this condition was too restrictive, triggering the development of new approaches that we shall discuss in greater detail here, with an emphasis on the scope for convergence or divergence. From the comparison of these new approaches, we shall try to identify the conditions that would allow a synthesis of these approaches by means of a Baconian inductive analysis. This induction method consists in discovering the principles of a social process by experiment and observation. It is therefore based on the fact that, without these principles, the observed properties would be different. It will enable us to draw a conclusion.