Articles & Papers by Jacob Rugh
The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Nov 8, 2021
Latino youth housing conditions have transformed dramatically over the past 20 years. Rates of ho... more Latino youth housing conditions have transformed dramatically over the past 20 years. Rates of household crowding have plummeted, nearly all Latino children are U.S.-born citizens, and broadband Internet access is widespread. However, Latino youth remain disadvantaged and their housing conditions remain understudied as they come of age in an era of housing crises, from foreclosures, evictions, to the novel coronavirus pandemic. This article examines Latino youth housing conditions since 2000, including crowding and mixed nativity/status households. Multivariate analyses of national data show that eviction, foreclosure, and a representative zip code sample of COVID-19 case rates are strongly linked to the housing conditions of Latino youth. These links are illustrated by analyzing and mapping eviction rates, foreclosure rates, and zip code coronavirus cases in the census tracts of Maricopa County, Arizona. The results underscore the urgent need for policies that invest in housing Latino youth to ensure that progress of the last 20 years is lasting.
Race and Social Problems, 2020
Recent scholarship across various disciplines since the U.S. housing crisis of 2008 has deepened ... more Recent scholarship across various disciplines since the U.S. housing crisis of 2008 has deepened our understanding of racial wealth gaps, especially as it pertains to housing. This article focuses on two less-developed dimensions of Black and Latino home ownership, voting and immigration, respectively. The Black home ownership rate has fallen to 41% as of 2019, the lowest level since the 1968 Fair Housing Act. I contend that the continued decline of Black home ownership reduces voting turnout. A multivariate fixed effects analysis of state-level Black voter turnout in presidential elections since 2000 lends support to this contention. In contrast, the Latino home ownership rate has rebounded, climbing to nearly 48% in 2019. I argue that this rise is as much a mirage as sign of progress—an artifact of the deportation of millions of Latin Americans and the end of undocumented Mexican migration. Such changes inflate Latino ownership rates by reducing the denominator rather than increasing the numerator of homeowners. Examining state-level data, my multivariate analysis shows that the decline in the undocumented population and, to a lesser extent, the increase of DACA recipients explain the level and change in Latino ownership more than the change in the share of Latino citizens or documented non-citizens. I conclude that the color line has reinforced a new Black/non-Black divide in home ownership that undermines the social mobility and electoral representation of Black Americans. Meanwhile, a tri-racial divide by legal status and race stratifies Latino home ownership. Intra-Latino inequality masquerades as success because of the expulsion of vulnerable Latino immigrants and their US citizen children. The social consequences distort the home ownership rate calculation and pose another threat to multiracial democracy.
Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 2019
In this article, I explore how race, class, and migration influence Latino household wealth, and ... more In this article, I explore how race, class, and migration influence Latino household wealth, and uncover important implications for the close 2016 US presidential election outcome in Florida. I follow over 11,000 homeowners in the Orlando area of Orange County, Florida from 2004 to 2016. To proxy for immigrant incorporation, I leverage matched voter registration records and direct observation of borrower identification – driver’s license, green card/passport, or undocumented identification. Documented immigrants appear least vulnerable to foreclosure; multivariate analyses show that Latinos with undocumented identification are most vulnerable. Foreclosure and negative equity predict decreases in voter activity among Latino Democrats and Latino Independents, respectively, but not among Latino Republicans. I confirm this pattern at the precinct-level using data on all Orange County voters. Across Florida, county-level Latino foreclosures and lagging home prices correspond to a decline in the Democratic presidential vote from 2012 to 2016. My analysis reveals the mechanisms that erase Latino home equity and how the loss of wealth may have played a role in flipping Florida from a blue state to a red state.
A Decade of Aftershocks: November 2018: "The Great Recession and the Destruction of Minority Wealth"
Current History, 2018
“In the course of the Great Recession, already fragile black and Hispanic middle-class households... more “In the course of the Great Recession, already fragile black and Hispanic middle-class households lost huge amounts of wealth, which had often been painstakingly accumulated over many decades.”
Third in a series on social mobility around the world.
The military has long been seen as an avenue for increasing racial equality for minorities, espec... more The military has long been seen as an avenue for increasing racial equality for minorities, especially black Americans. In this article, we examine to what extent military veterans also experience residential integration by looking at neighborhood residential outcomes for black and white men utilizing the popular Veterans Affairs (VA) loan program to purchase a home. We draw on data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to examine residential integration among white and black veteran homebuyers compared to homebuyers utilizing conventional loans over three major lending eras: 1990s, 2000–2007, and 2008–2015. By 2015, a quarter of all home purchase mortgages loans to black men were VA loans even though veterans made up only a tenth of the adult black male population. In our multivariate analyses, we uncover a sizeable combined swing toward neighborhood minority-white integration, 14.4% points, among black and white veterans who use VA loans. Compared to those with conventional loans, black veterans live in neighborhoods with 10.0% points fewer minorities and, white veterans, 4.4% points fewer whites. Our results illustrate how racial integration in the US military has the potential to foster lasting housing integration among veterans.
Subprime mortgage lending in the United States rose alongside home prices and lasted about fiftee... more Subprime mortgage lending in the United States rose alongside home prices and lasted about fifteen years, ending abruptly in late 2007, setting off a national foreclosure crisis. Between 2007 and 2012 there were 9 to 12 million foreclosures filings and 4 to 5 million completed foreclosures. The ensuing foreclosure crisis stemmed more from falling home prices but its unequal distribution across society by race and space was also the product of legacies of exclusion and a shared consensus on the expansion of mortgage credit and home ownership. Modest federal interventions to buffer communities and homeowners from the crisis likely reinforced the unequal impact.
Over the past decade, Latinos have been buffeted by two major forces: a record number of immigran... more Over the past decade, Latinos have been buffeted by two major forces: a record number of immigrant deportations and the housing foreclosure crisis. Yet, prior work has not assessed the link between the two. We hypothesize that deportations exacerbate rates of foreclosure among Latinos by removing income earners from owner-occupied households. We employ a quasi-experimental approach that leverages variation in county applications for 287(g) immigration enforcement agreements with Immigration and Customs Enforcement and data on foreclosure filings from 2005–2012. These models uncover a substantial association of enforcement with Hispanic foreclosure rates. The association is stronger in counties with more immigrant detentions and a larger share of undocumented persons in owner-occupied homes. The results imply that local immigration enforcement plays an important role in understanding why Latinos experienced foreclosures most often. The reduced home ownership and wealth that result illustrate how legal status and deportation perpetuate the racial stratification of Latinos.
In the decade leading up to the housing crisis, black and Latino borrowers disproportionately rec... more In the decade leading up to the housing crisis, black and Latino borrowers disproportionately received high-cost, high-risk mortgage loans—a lending disparity well documented by prior studies nationwide. Here we analyze qualitative data gathered from actors in the lending industry to identify the social structure under which this mortgage discrimination took place during the 1990s and 2000s. Our data consist of 220 depositions, declarations, and related exhibits submitted by borrowers, loan originators, and investment bank employees in recent fair lending cases. Our analyses reveal the specific mechanisms through which: 1) investors encouraged the origination of high-cost, high-risk loans and 2) loan originators placed black and Latino borrowers into higher-cost, higher-risk loans than similarly situated white borrowers. Profit and compensation structures encouraged the origination of high-cost, high-risk loans; the segmentation of actors vertically provided more powerful actors with an illusion of distance from problematic lending practices; and the segmentation of loan originators into separate prime and subprime markets facilitated disparities in loan cost by race. Institutional cultures within entities at various levels of the industry stifled criticism of both unethical and unsafe lending practices and the pressure for higher-profits led at least some originators and their supervisors to intentionally target black and Latino borrowers for high-cost loans and exploit intermediaries within local social networks, such as community or religious leaders, to gain the trust of potential borrowers.
Social Problems, May 5, 2015
In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities genera... more In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities generate racialized patterns of subprime lending and lead to financial loss among black borrowers in segregated cities. We conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage because of its direct and indirect effects on socioeconomic status at the individual and neighborhood levels, with consequences that reverberate across a borrower’s life and between generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case study setting, we combine data from reports filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed securities. We find that race and neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors explaining black disadvantage across successive stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, controlling for differences in borrower credit scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to-value ratios. We analyze the cumulative cost of predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of reduced disposable income and lost wealth. We find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers paid an estimated additional 5 to 11 percent in monthly payments and those that completed foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 million in home equity. These costs were magnified in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily concentrated in communities of color. By elucidating the mechanisms that link black segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to undermine black socioeconomic status in the United States today.
Social Forces, Mar 1, 2015
Recent research has demonstrated that Latinos have been hit hardest by the US foreclosure crisis.... more Recent research has demonstrated that Latinos have been hit hardest by the US foreclosure crisis. In this article, I combine place stratification and spatial assimilation theory to explain why Latinos suffered a devastating double blow during the foreclosure crisis. Using a national sample of borrowers who received risky mortgage loans during the boom and following them through the crisis, I find that Latinos were most likely subject to high-cost subprime lending and especially risky low-/no-documentation lending as Latino suburbanization and immigration peaked along with national home prices. As a result, while Latino borrowers were no less likely to lose their homes to foreclosure than blacks prior to the crisis or in the Rust Belt, they were significantly more likely to lose their homes after the crisis began and in the Sand States of Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada. Taken together, the results demonstrate the risk of rising Latino immigration, suburbanization, and homeownership during the stages of the housing boom and foreclosure crisis.
2015 Annual Meeting of Urban Affairs Association Conference Paper
In the recent housing collapse Latino homeowners experienced the highest foreclosure rate and the... more In the recent housing collapse Latino homeowners experienced the highest foreclosure rate and the largest losses in home equity and household wealth. We ask a straightforward question: Does nativity or immigrant status help explain the elevated foreclosure rate among Latinos? We examine mechanisms that potentially explain disparities faced by Latinos in the Orlando, Florida region. We consider the role of nativity along with two other rival explanations, place stratification and cultural affinity. We introduce new variables and develop new approaches to assess the role of lender assignment of Latino officers, the combination of Latino borrower-officer dyads, and the recent immigrant status of Latino borrowers. We uncover important differences in the institutional representation of Latino officers in the prime vs. subprime division of each of bank. We also find that Latino borrowers with Latino officers are more likely than non-Latino borrowers with non-Latino officers to turn to (or be steered into) the subprime lending division, more likely to receive a high cost loan, and more likely to experience mortgage foreclosure. We detect a potentially potent effect of nativity among more recent immigrants using a proxy variable based on the type of identification used by borrowers to verify their identity at the time of closing the mortgage. Our study advances our understanding of how nativity may structure Latino disparities and raises questions worthy of future research.
Urban Geography (Forthcoming)
The United States experienced the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009 and many American cities ... more The United States experienced the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009 and many American cities and communities are still suffering from the legacy of this sharp economic decline. During the prior period of the early and mid 2000s, many inner city African American communities were experiencing gentrification driven, in part, by the real estate bubble that popped in 2007. While much has been written about the institutional and structural causes and consequences of the Great Recession, this article seeks to better understand its community-level implications by investigating the relationship between lending and property value patterns in three gentrifying African American communities just before, during and after this economic calamity. In particular, we investigate Bronzeville in Chicago, Harlem in New York City and Shaw/U Street in Washington, DC. Evidence suggests the Great Recession differentially influenced the development trajectories of these urban African- American neighborhoods. In Bronzeville severe and prolonged property decline resulted while much less economic stagnation was experienced in Harlem and Shaw/U Street. This study highlights that the Great Recession did not have uniform implications for urban African American neighborhoods and suggests that distinct community and city contexts, in particular racial and class neighborhood transitions and citywide unemployment and housing market conditions, mediate the influence of national economic decline and recovery.
Du Bois Review: Social Science Research on Race, Dec 27, 2014
In this paper we adjudicate between competing claims of persisting segregation and rapid integrat... more In this paper we adjudicate between competing claims of persisting segregation and rapid integration by analyzing trends in residential dissimilarity and spatial isolation for African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians living in 287 consistently defined metropolitan areas from 1970 to 2010. On average, Black segregation and isolation have fallen steadily but still remain very high in many areas, particularly those areas historically characterized by hypersegregation. In contrast, Hispanic segregation has increased slightly but Hispanic isolation has risen substantially owing to rapid population growth. Asian segregation has changed little and remains moderate, and although Asian isolation has increased it remains at low levels compared with other groups. Whites remain quite isolated from all three minority groups in metropolitan America, despite rising diversity and some shifts toward integration from the minority viewpoint. Multivariate analyses reveal that minority segregation and spatial isolation are actively produced in some areas by restrictive density zoning regimes, large and/or rising minority percentages, lagging minority socioeconomic status, and active expressions of anti-Black and anti-Latino sentiment, especially in large metropolitan areas. Areas displaying these characteristics are either integrating very slowly (in the case of Blacks) or becoming more segregated (in the case of Hispanics), whereas those lacking these attributes are clearly moving toward integration, often quite rapidly.
American sociological review, 2010
The rise in subprime lending and the ensuing wave of foreclosures was partly a result of market f... more The rise in subprime lending and the ensuing wave of foreclosures was partly a result of market forces that have been well-identified in the literature, but it was also a highly racialized process. We argue that residential segregation created a unique niche of minority clients who were differentially marketed risky subprime loans that were in great demand for use in mortgage-backed securities that could be sold on secondary markets. We test this argument by regressing foreclosure actions in the top 100 U.S. metropolitan areas on measures of black, Hispanic, and Asian segregation while controlling for a variety of housing market conditions, including average creditworthiness, the extent of coverage under the Community Reinvestment Act, the degree of zoning regulation, and the overall rate of subprime lending. We find that black residential dissimilarity and spatial isolation are powerful predictors of foreclosures across U.S. metropolitan areas. To isolate subprime lending as the causal mechanism through which segregation influences foreclosures, we estimate a two-stage least squares model that confirms the causal effect of black segregation on the number and rate of foreclosures across metropolitan areas. We thus conclude that segregation was an important contributing cause of the foreclosure crisis, along with overbuilding, risky lending practices, lax regulation, and the bursting of the housing price bubble.
New evidence on racial and ethnic disparities in homeownership in the United States from 2001 to 2010
Social Science Research, 2013
Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos, 2010
Using data from Mexico's Matrícula Consular program, we analyze the geographic organization of un... more Using data from Mexico's Matrícula Consular program, we analyze the geographic organization of undocumented Mexican migration to the United States. We show that emigration has moved beyond its historical origins in west-central Mexico into the central region and, to a lesser extent, the southeast and border regions. In the United States, traditional gateways continue to dominate, but a variety of new destinations have emerged. California, in particular, has lost its overwhelming dominance. Although the geographic structure of Mexico-U.S. migration is relatively stable, it has nonetheless continued to evolve and change over time.
The Provision of Local Public Goods in Diverse Communities: Analyzing Municipal Bond Elections
The Journal of Politics, 2011
ABSTRACT Scholars have shown that diversity depresses public goods provision. In U.S. cities, rac... more ABSTRACT Scholars have shown that diversity depresses public goods provision. In U.S. cities, racial and ethnic divisions could seriously undermine investment. However, diverse cities spend significant amounts on public goods. We ask how these communities overcome their potential collective action problem. Using a new data set on more than 3,000 municipal bond elections, we show that strategic politicians encourage cooperation. Diversity leads officials to be more selective about requesting approval for investment and more attentive to coalition building. We show that diverse communities see fewer bond elections, but that the bonds proposed are larger and pass at higher rates. Diverse cities tend to offer voters bonds with more spending categories and are more likely to hold referenda during general elections. As a result, diverse cities do just as well as homogenous cities in issuing voter-authorized debt. Thus, political elites perform an important mediating function in the generation of public goods.
2015: Vol. 62, Issue 2 by Jacob Rugh
Race, Space, and Cumulative Disadvantage: A Case Study of the Subprime Lending Collapse
In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities genera... more In this article, we describe how residential segregation and individual racial disparities generate racialized patterns of subprime lending and lead to financial loss among black borrowers in segregated cities. We conceptualize race as a cumulative disadvantage because of its direct and indirect effects on socioeconomic status at the individual and neighborhood levels, with consequences that reverberate across a borrower’s life and between generations. Using Baltimore, Maryland as a case study setting, we combine data from reports filed under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act with additional loan-level data from mortgage-backed securities. We find that race and neighborhood racial segregation are critical factors explaining black disadvantage across successive stages in the process of lending and foreclosure, controlling for differences in borrower credit scores, income, occupancy status, and loan-to-value ratios. We analyze the cumulative cost of predatory lending to black borrowers in terms of reduced disposable income and lost wealth. We find the cost to be substantial. Black borrowers paid an estimated additional 5 to 11 percent in monthly payments and those that completed foreclosure in the sample lost an excess of $2 million in home equity. These costs were magnified in mostly black neighborhoods and in turn heavily concentrated in communities of color. By elucidating the mechanisms that link black segregation to discrimination we demonstrate how processes of cumulative disadvantage continue to undermine black socioeconomic status in the United States today.
En este artículo describimos cómo la segregación residencial y las desigualdades raciales individuales generan patrones raciales en la concesión y la ejecución de préstamos de alto riesgo entre los prestatarios negros en ciudades segregadas. Se presenta el concepto de raza como una desventaja acumulativa ya que tiene efectos económicos directos e indirectos a nivel individual y de barrio, y consecuencias que repercuten de por vida en el prestatario y sus descendientes. Se presenta el estudio de caso de la ciudad de Baltimore, en el estado de Maryland, con la utilización de los informes accesibles gracias a la Ley de Divulgación de Hipotecas y los datos de los instrumentos financieros derivados (CDO). Los resultados señalan que la raza y la segregación racial residencial son factores críticos que explican la desventaja de los afroamericanos en el proceso de préstamo y de ejecución hipotecaria, aún cuando controlamos las diferencias en las puntuaciones de crédito del prestatario, los ingresos, su ocupación y la proporción de valor del préstamo. También analizamos el costo acumulativo de los préstamos de alto riesgo en la reducción de ingreso disponible y en la perdida de riqueza de los prestatarios afroamericanos. Descubrimos que el costo acumulativo es sustancial. Los prestatarios negros pagaron entre el 5 al 11 por ciento más en pagos mensuales y aquellos que llegaron a la ejecución hipotecaria perdieron un exceso de $2 millones en equidad. Estos costos son más altos en barrios de mayoría afroamericana y en comunidades de color. Para explicar los mecanismos que enlazan la segregación afroamericana y la discriminación mostramos cómo, hoy en día, los procesos de desventaja acumulativa por razón racial siguen socavando la situación socioeconómica de la población negra en los Estados Unidos.
Papers by Jacob Rugh
Recent studies have used statistical methods to show that minorities were more likely than equall... more Recent studies have used statistical methods to show that minorities were more likely than equally qualified whites to receive high-cost, high-risk loans during the U.S. housing boom, evidence taken to suggest widespread discrimination in the mortgage lending industry. The evidence, however, was indirect, being inferred from racial differentials that persisted after controlling for other factors known to affect the terms of lending. Here we assemble a qualitative database to generate direct evidence of discrimination. Using a sample of 220 statements randomly selected from documents assembled in the course of recent fair lending lawsuits, we code texts for evidence of individual discrimination, structural discrimination, and potential discrimination in mortgage lending practices. We find that 76 percent of the texts indicated the existence of structural discrimination, with only 11 percent suggesting individual discrimination alone. We then present a sample of texts that were coded as discriminatory to reveal the way in which racial discrimination was embedded within the social structure of U.S. mortgage lending, and to reveal the specific microsocial mechanisms by which this discrimination was effected.
Riding the Stagecoach to Hell: A Qualitative Analysis of Racial Discrimination in Mortgage Lending
City & Community, 2016
Uploads
Articles & Papers by Jacob Rugh
Third in a series on social mobility around the world.
2015: Vol. 62, Issue 2 by Jacob Rugh
En este artículo describimos cómo la segregación residencial y las desigualdades raciales individuales generan patrones raciales en la concesión y la ejecución de préstamos de alto riesgo entre los prestatarios negros en ciudades segregadas. Se presenta el concepto de raza como una desventaja acumulativa ya que tiene efectos económicos directos e indirectos a nivel individual y de barrio, y consecuencias que repercuten de por vida en el prestatario y sus descendientes. Se presenta el estudio de caso de la ciudad de Baltimore, en el estado de Maryland, con la utilización de los informes accesibles gracias a la Ley de Divulgación de Hipotecas y los datos de los instrumentos financieros derivados (CDO). Los resultados señalan que la raza y la segregación racial residencial son factores críticos que explican la desventaja de los afroamericanos en el proceso de préstamo y de ejecución hipotecaria, aún cuando controlamos las diferencias en las puntuaciones de crédito del prestatario, los ingresos, su ocupación y la proporción de valor del préstamo. También analizamos el costo acumulativo de los préstamos de alto riesgo en la reducción de ingreso disponible y en la perdida de riqueza de los prestatarios afroamericanos. Descubrimos que el costo acumulativo es sustancial. Los prestatarios negros pagaron entre el 5 al 11 por ciento más en pagos mensuales y aquellos que llegaron a la ejecución hipotecaria perdieron un exceso de $2 millones en equidad. Estos costos son más altos en barrios de mayoría afroamericana y en comunidades de color. Para explicar los mecanismos que enlazan la segregación afroamericana y la discriminación mostramos cómo, hoy en día, los procesos de desventaja acumulativa por razón racial siguen socavando la situación socioeconómica de la población negra en los Estados Unidos.
Papers by Jacob Rugh