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Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food Prices: Evidence from Local Prices

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  • Lotanna E. Emediegwu

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)

Abstract

This paper uses time-varying smooth transition autoregressive model to investigate the asymmetric nature of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) —an exogenous climatic factor—with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in sub-Saharan Africa. Curating food price series from more than 1100 markets from 36 SSA countries, the study finds that ENSO (linearly or nonlinearly) affects roughly half of food prices considered, with most nonlinear models exhibiting strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of ENSO impact, I find a geographical and food product divide. Specifically, ENSO appears to be more efficacious on maize prices in Southern, Eastern, and some parts of Central Africa. Conversely, local rice, cassava, millet, and animal products are least affected. The policy implication of this dichotomy is that response to ENSO news should be subregion-specific rather than region-specific, depending on how the subregions absorb the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Lotanna E. Emediegwu, 2024. "Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food Prices: Evidence from Local Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(10), pages 2743-2772, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:87:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s10640-024-00901-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00901-x
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    2. Emediegwu Lotanna & Rogna Marco, 2026. "Food Price Dynamics under Global Climate Cycles," JRC Working Papers on Economic Analysis of Policies for Africa 2026-03-2, Joint Research Centre.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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