IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w202603.html

Do banks price firms’ climate transition risks?

Author

Listed:
  • Wildmer Daniel Gregori
  • Daniel Abreu
  • Laura Bartolomeu
  • Fotios Kalantzis

Abstract

This study examines whether banks incorporate climate transition risks into loan pricing for non-financial firms in Portugal, using loan-level data from 2018 to 2023. The results show that banks do price climate transition risks, with firms exhibiting greater emission intensity facing higher interest rates and smaller loan amounts, indicating both a pricing and credit rationing response to environmental risk. Public support measures influence how climate risk is transmitted, highlighting the potential relevance of policies with explicit environmental criteria. When accounting for the emission reduction efforts that firms are required to undertake under the current policies scenario, banks become more sensitive to firms’ emission levels when pricing interest rates. This suggests that banks incorporate, to some extent, expected future adjustment costs into their lending decisions. Coordinated government and prudential policies may help channel credit to low-emission and transformative projects, fostering the green transition while safeguarding financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Daniel Abreu & Laura Bartolomeu & Fotios Kalantzis, 2026. "Do banks price firms’ climate transition risks?," Working Papers w202603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-04/WP202603.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Márcio Mateus & Katja Neugebauer, 2025. "Stayin’ alive? Government support measures in Portugal during the Covid-19 pandemic," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 24(3), pages 335-372, September.
    2. Bihong Huang & Maria Teresa Punzi & Yu Wu, 2021. "Do Banks Price Environmental Transition Risks? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in a Chinese Province," IMF Working Papers 2021/228, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Fatica, Serena & Panzica, Roberto & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "The pricing of green bonds: Are financial institutions special?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Daniel Kim & Sébastien Pouget, 2026. "Do carbon emissions affect the cost of capital?," Post-Print hal-05470890, HAL.
    5. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Pagano, Marco & Polo, Andrea, 2023. "Climate Risk, Bank Lending and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18541, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Lee H. Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risk and Corporate Bonds," NBER Working Papers 29994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2021. "Do banks price environmental transition risks? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Beyer, Andreas & Schreiner, Lena, 2024. "The impact of ECB Banking Supervision on climate risk and sustainable finance," Working Paper Series 2952, European Central Bank.
    9. Mueller, Isabella & Sfrappini, Eleonora, 2025. "Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Brunella Bruno & Sara Lombini, 2023. "Climate transition risk and bank lending," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 59-106, December.
    11. Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Dunz, Nepomuk & Emambakhsh, Tina & Hennig, Tristan & Kaijser, Michiel & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Parisi, Laura & Salleo, Carmelo, 2021. "ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test," Occasional Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Hengzhen & Wang, Xinran, 2025. "Stranded asset risk and corporate capital structure: Evidence from China’s low-carbon transition," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Zhou, Peng & Mo, Lingyu & Tan, Changchun & Wu, Huaqing, 2025. "Carbon regulatory risk exposure in the bond market: A quasi-natural experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Cepni, Oguzhan & Şensoy, Ahmet & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2024. "Climate change exposure and cost of equity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Tommaso Oliviero & Sandro Rondinella & Alberto Zazzaro, 2024. "Are green firms more financially constrained? The sensitivity of investment to cash flow," CSEF Working Papers 700, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca, 2025. "Spotlight on physical risk: Assessing the banks' stock reaction to the ECB climate stress test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Xiaoyue Qiu & Yaming Zhuang & Xiaqun Liu, 2025. "Climate Risk and Corporate Debt Financing: Evidence from Chinese A-Share-Listed Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-27, April.
    7. Svetlana Popova & Natalia Turdyeva, 2024. "Environmental and Climate Factors of Corporate Lending in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps143, Bank of Russia.
    8. Zhao, Feng & Wang, Jinhai & Chen, Qian, 2025. "Climate change exposure and corporate strategic aggressiveness: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 26-53.
    9. Xiao, He, 2022. "Environmental regulation and firm capital structure dynamics," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 770-787.
    10. Aslan, Caglayan & Bulut, Erdem & Cepni, Oguzhan & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2022. "Does climate change affect bank lending behavior?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara, 2023. "Green preferences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3211-3253, April.
    12. Tianle Yang & Zhennan Sun & Min Du & Qunyang Du & Lei Li & Fatima Shuwaikh, 2025. "The impact of the degree of coupling coordination between green finance and environmental regulations on firms’ innovation performance: evidence from China," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 347(1), pages 173-195, April.
    13. Fourné, Marius & Li, Xiang, 2026. "Climate policy and international capital reallocation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Murè, P. & Giorgio, S. & Antonelli, V. & Bittucci, L., 2025. "Environmental credit products: Where do we stand? A response from an academic content analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Liu, Chunna & Ma, Shihan & Lu, Shiyi & Zhi, Jiaqi & Shen, Jian & Li, Xiaoyan & Shi, Changfeng, 2025. "Study on the time-frequency risk spillover network of “carbon-energy-stock” system under climate risk shock," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    17. Wei, Feng & Xie, Huixuan & Yip, Chi Man, 2026. "Environmental regulatory spillovers in conglomerates: Quasi-experimental evidence on subsidiary leverage in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Frank Kwabi & Samuel Fulgence & Gbenga Adamolekun, 2024. "CEO hubris and corporate carbon footprint: The role of gender diversity," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(8), pages 8102-8125, December.
    19. Haonan Wang & Lichao Zhou & Jinhui Xu & Jingqun Shan, 2025. "Can National ESG Inhibit the Impact of Extreme Climate on Global Financial Risks?," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 374-389, December.
    20. Chatzipetrou Evrikleia & Papanikolaou Glykeria‐Maria & Tiakas Eleftherios & Boskou Georgia, 2025. "Environmental Management Accounting for Sustainable Development in Greece," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(6), pages 7987-8010, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.