Ermias Engida

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Papers by Ermias Engida

Ethiopia's Value Chains on the Move: The Case of Teff

Public investment in irrigation and training for agriculture-led development: a CGE approach for Ethiopia

Social Science Research Network, Apr 30, 2013

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Effect of mineral fertilizer on rain water and radiation use efficiencies for maize yield and stover biomass productivity in Ethiopia

Agricultural Systems, 2019

The impact of increasing rates of typically used mineral fertilizer on Rain water use efficiency ... more The impact of increasing rates of typically used mineral fertilizer on Rain water use efficiency (WUE) and Radiation use efficiency (RUE) of maize grain yield and stover biomass productivity was estimated across the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Ethiopia using the crop model LINTUL5 embedded into a general modeling framework, SIMPLACE (Scientific Impact Assessment and Modeling Platform for Advanced Crop and Ecosystem Management) with the hypothesis that WUE and RUE would increase with higher application rates of mineral fertilizer and vary for maize grain yield and stover biomass across the AEZs. The simulations were run using a long maturing cycle maize variety (BH660) and a medium maturing cycle maize variety (BH540) with historical weather data (2004-2010).There were strong effects of the application rate of mineral fertilizer on WUE and RUE of maize yield and stover biomass across the AEZs. The highest WUE of 11.5 kg mm −1 and 9.4 kg mm −1 in maize grain yield and stover biomass respectively was estimated with the application of 315 kg N ha −1 + 105 kg P ha −1 in AEZ 3 having the lowest amount of rainfall during the crop growth period as compared with AEZ 1 and 2.The findings of the current study indicate that WUE in grain and stover production can be increased to by 172% to 363%, and 230% to 352% respectively depending upon the AEZs, based on management intervention in terms of increased fertilizer application rates as compared with the WUE under unfertilized conditions. On the other hand, the highest RUE of 3.0 kg MJ −1 and 2.1 kg MJ −1 in maize grain yield and stover biomass respectively was estimated in AEZ 2 with the application of 315 kg N ha −1 + 105 kg P ha −1. RUE in grain yield and stover biomass can be increased to the tune of 177% to 362%, and 216% to 351% respectively depending upon the AEZs with the increased application of N and P compared with the RUE under unfertilized conditions. The economic analysis indicates optimal fertilizer application levels of 225 N + 75P kg ha −1 for maize production under average national conditions and prices and a slightly lower rate of 180 N + 60P kg ha −1 in regions where water availability tends to constrain grain yields in addition to the nutrient deficit.

format_quoteWUE in maize grain yields increased up to 11.5 kg mm -1 with 315 kg N ha -1 + 105 kg P ha -1 in Ethiopia's AEZ 3.format_quote

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Summary of ESSP Working Paper 30 (November 2011)

The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) has set higher growth and investment targets than those ... more The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) has set higher growth and investment targets than those of any of Ethiopia’s earlier national plans and its implementation requires faster growth in total factor productivity and large-scale mobilization of domestic and foreign savings. We analyzed these GTP targets using a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model to assess the implications of the plan on macro- and microeconomic variables. We hereby focused on two financing options: increased domestic savings and increased foreign savings.Non-PRIFPRI2; Subtheme 6.2; GRP32; ESSP IIDSG

Ethiopia's value chain on the move: the case of teff

We study the value chain of teff, Ethiopia’s most important staple food crop by area and value. B... more We study the value chain of teff, Ethiopia’s most important staple food crop by area and value. Based on large-scale primary surveys, we find significant changes in the last decade. First, there is increasing adoption of modern inputs (chemical fertilizer, improved varieties, and herbicides) by farmers, especially by those living close to urban centers. Second, quality demands are rising and there are important shifts from the cheap red varieties to the more expensive white ones. Third, we see an increasing willingness-to-pay for convenience in urban areas, as illustrated by the emer-gence of one-stop retail shops—that provide sales, cleaning, milling, and transport services—as well as by a sizable foodservice industry. Fourth, the share of rural–urban marketing, urban distribution, and milling margins in final retail prices is declining, indicating improved marketing efficiency over time.status: publishe

format_quoteHerbicide use among teff farmers rose from 31% to 63% in the past decade, while improved seed use increased from 7% to 35%.format_quote

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Options for Sustainable Intensification of Maize Production in Ethiopia

Sustainability, 2019

The agricultural intensification of farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa is a prerequisite to al... more The agricultural intensification of farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa is a prerequisite to alleviate rural poverty and to improve livelihood. In this modelling exercise, we identified sustainable intensification scenarios for maize-based cropping systems in Ethiopia. We evaluated Conventional Intensification (CI) as continuous maize monocropping using higher Mineral Fertilizer (MF) rates with and without the incorporation of Crop Residues (CR) in the soil. We also evaluated the effect of groundnut in rotation with the maize-based cropping system with the current Farmer’s Practice + Rotation (FP + Rotation) and increased MF application rates (CI + Rotation) combined with CR incorporation. The results suggest that, under CI, there was a positive effect of MF and CR. The incorporation of only CR in the field increased the maize yield by 45.3% compared to the farmer’s yield under current MF rates. CR combined with higher MF (60 kg N ha−1 + 20 kg P ha−1) increased the yield by 134.6%...

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Ethiopiaâ€™s value chains on the move: The case of teff

Integrating livestock in the CAADP framework: Policy analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Ethiopia

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jan 15, 2012

Researchers and policy-makers increasingly recognize that the livestock sector supports the livel... more Researchers and policy-makers increasingly recognize that the livestock sector supports the livelihoods of a large proportion of rural households in most African countries and may have an important role to play in rural poverty reduction strategies. In order to develop this insight, economy-wide models should capture both the biological, dynamic relationships between the stocks and flows of livestock and the economic linkages between the sector and the rest of economy. We extend an existing dynamic recursive general equilibrium model for the Ethiopian economy which better models the livestock sector. A separate herd dynamics module enables us to specify stock-flow relationship, distinguishing between the capital role of livestock and the flow of livestock products. We also improve the underlying system of economic accounts, to better capture draft power and breeding stocks. We use this model to simulate separate, realistic Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks to three agricultural subsectors-cereals, cash crops, and livestockand compare them with a baseline scenario replicating the 1998 to 2007 productivity trends, following Dorosh and Thurlow (2009) who have examined CAADP productivity scenarios. The results we obtain reveal the important role of the livestock sector in increasing various measures of GDP and combating food insecurity. Agricultural GDP and overall GDP growth levels achieved in the livestock TFP shock scenario are very similar to those achieved in the cereal TFP shock scenario, unlike what previously thought. Importantly, as factors are dynamically re-allocated between agricultural activities, our analysis highlights the inefficiency of strategies focusing on cereal sector development alone. Moreover, livestock sector productivity growth leads to greater factor income growth, particularly labor income, than in the other simulations. Labor is the predominant asset of poor household and hence large income gains and food consumption growth are realized under the livestock-led scenario.

format_quoteLivestock productivity growth results in higher labor income growth than cereal sector development, contradicting previous beliefs about optimal agricultural strategies.format_quote

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The role of livestock in the Kenyan economy: Policy analysis using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model for Kenya

The major significance of this study is thus, to give the already existing dynamic CGE model the ... more

The Role of Livestock in the Tanzanian Economy: Policy Analysis Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Tanzania

In agricultural economies of Africa, livestock sub-sector supports livelihoods of large proportio... more In agricultural economies of Africa, livestock sub-sector supports livelihoods of large proportion of households and has important role on value addition and on insuring national food security. However, its importance has often been ignored by policymakers as well as researchers. Researchers neglect livestock sector mainly for methodological reasons. This study tries to overcome this problem. We extend an existing DCGE model for Tanzania with a separately built herd dynamics module which enables us to specify stock–flow relationship, distinguishing between the capital role of livestock and the flow of livestock products. The results from realistic TFP shocks on different agricultural sub-sectors clearly show that livestock sub-sector has better growth elasticity greater than the cereal and cash crop sub-sectors in contrast to previous literature. Factors reallocation among activities is observed which leads us to emphasize on livestock – cereal sub-sectors joint growth plan rather t...

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Using Evidence in Unraveling Food Supply Chains in Ethiopia: The Supply Chain of Teff from Major Production Areas to Addis Ababa

Urbanization is quickly increasing in Africa, raising important questions on how food value chain... more Urbanization is quickly increasing in Africa, raising important questions on how food value chains to cities function and what the implications of urban growth are for the local food trade and farm sector. We study the rural–urban value chain of teff in Ethiopia, by value its most important staple value chain. Relying on unique large-scale surveys at different levels in this value chain, we find—in contrast to conventional wisdom—that value chains are relatively short and that average farmers obtain a high share, of about 80 percent, of the final consumer price in the major terminal market, Addis Ababa. We further find that producer prices decline the further farmers live from the city. Stock release by farmers is smooth over the year and the importance of distress sales after harvest is lower than commonly assumed. As these are all signs of well-functioning markets and as room for improvements toward higher producer prices are small, policy interventions aiming to increase market e...

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The Role of Micro and Small Enterprises in Reducing Unemployment and Poverty in Ethiopia

Despite the country’s success in economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade, inco... more Despite the country’s success in economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade, income inequality and unemployment remain formidable challenges in Ethiopia. According to the 2014 Central Statistics Authority report, average urban unemployment was as high as 16.5%. Furthermore, unemployment remains disproportionally higher for women and youth. At 23%, the female unemployment rate is more than double that of men.

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Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan: A CGE Analysis of Alternative Financing Options: Summary of ESSP Working Paper 30 (November 2011)

Synopsis: How big are post-harvest losses? Evidence from teff

Based on a unique large-scale data set on teff production and marketing, Ethiopia’s most importan... more Based on a unique large-scale data set on teff production and marketing, Ethiopia’s most important cash crop, we study post-harvest losses in rural-urban value chains, specifically between producers and urban retailers in the capital, Addis Ababa. We analyze the structure of the value chain and rely on self-reported losses by different value chain agents (farmers, wholesale traders, and retailers). We estimate that post-harvest losses in the most prevalent pathway in the rural-urban value chain, amount to between 2.2 and 3.3 percent of total harvested quantities. The variation in this figure depends on the storage facilities used and on assumed losses during transport at the farm. These losses are significantly lower than is commonly assumed for staple foods, possibly because of the rather good storage characteristics of teff due to its low moisture content. These findings, nonetheless, point to the need to gather further solid evidence on post-harvest losses in staple foods in thes...

How big are post-harvest losses in Ethiopia? Evidence from teff

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Food processing, transformation, and job creation: The case of Ethiopia’s enjera markets

Given the importance of agriculture in developing economies, food processing industries often dom... more Given the importance of agriculture in developing economies, food processing industries often dominate the industrial sector when considering employment and value addition in these settings. For example, it is estimated that the food processing industry in Ethiopia employs 1 million people, around 2 percent of the economically active population. However, the way this food processing industry is changing and how it functions is little understood. Based on a unique survey, we study the case of markets in urban Ethiopia for commercial ready-to-eat enjera, the traditional staple pancake of the country. We find that commercial enjera markets are quickly growing, employing more than 100,000 people in urban Ethiopia. Moreover, enjera is now being prepared by mixing flour from locally produced teff with that of imported rice, thus absorbing an important part of the rapidly growing rice imports (almost 200 million USD in 2015) in the country, and leading to higher profits for those enterpris...

The Teff Value Chain on the Move Summary of ESSP Working Paper 52, "Ethiopia's Value Chains on the Move: The Case of Teff

We study the value chain of teff, Ethiopia’s most important staple food crop by area and value. B... more We study the value chain of teff, Ethiopia’s most important staple food crop by area and value. Based on large-scale primary surveys, we find significant changes in the last decade. First, there is increasing adoption of modern inputs (chemical fertilizer, improved varieties, and herbicides) by farmers, especially by those living close to urban centers. Second, quality demands are rising and there are important shifts from the cheap red varieties to the more expensive white ones. Third, we see an increasing willingness-to-pay for convenience in urban areas, as illustrated by the emergence of one-stop retail shops—that provide sales, cleaning, milling, and transport services—as well as by a sizable foodservice industry. Fourth, the share of rural–urban marketing, urban distribution, and milling margins in final retail prices is declining, indicating improved marketing efficiency over time. The purpose of the study is to understand to what extent domestic agricultural value chains are...

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Does Electricity Supply Strategy Matter? Shortage and Investment:Reflections based on CGE Analysis

by Ermias Engida and Eyasu Tsehaye

Ethiopia?s fast growing economy has brought about an unprecedented rise in power demand. Unfortun... more Ethiopia?s fast growing economy has brought about an unprecedented rise in power demand. Unfortunately, the demand could not be met in the last three years because of delays in capacity expansion and shortage of rainfall which resulted in power shortage. The government followed a rationing strategy to solve the problem in the short run while for the long run it has been investing heavily in power generation capacity with further intention to export. Using a Static CGE model, this study analyzed the impact of the electricity shortage on the economy. The analysis is based on IFPRI?s standard CGE model and the 2005/06 Ethiopian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The paper assesses government?s measure of electricity rationing (rationing that favors export sectors and disfavors selected sectors) and compares it with other alternative strategies (uniform rationing, rationing that favors export sectors, and rationing that favors activities of high electricity productivity). The study found t...

format_quoteElectricity shortage led to a 3% GDP loss in 2009/10, severely affecting manufacturing with a 10.3% output loss.format_quote

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The Role of Micro and Small Scale Enterprises in the Ethiopian Economy, Government Intervention and Alternative Strategies: A CGE Analysis

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

The role of micro and small scale enterprises in the Ethiopian economy, government intervention a... more

format_quoteMSEs contribute 31.8% of non-agricultural value addition and 18.5% of labor in Ethiopia, highlighting their economic significance.format_quote

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Public Investment In Irrigation And Training, Growth And Poverty Reduction In Ethiopia

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2015

This paper analyzes the impacts of public investment in small-scale irrigation and farmer trainin... more This paper analyzes the impacts of public investment in small-scale irrigation and farmer training on growth and agriculture-led development, on food security, and on poverty in Ethiopia. We use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model linked to a microsimulation model based on the latest household income and expenditure survey, in a topdown approach. All public investments are assumed to increase total factor productivity through increased supply of skilled labor and/or irrigated land. We find that investing in farmer training alone has great potential to increase growth, food security and poverty reduction, given that the economy is labor-intensive. Investing in training combined with irrigation has even greater impacts. An irrigation only approach will not yield the expected results if agricultural labor does not have the required skills. The irrigated agriculture sector has great potential despite its small size. However, for the impact to be notable, important investments are required in the first place to increase the share of irrigated agriculture versus the rain-fed. An agriculture-led development is less likely to occur because: i) of weak forward and backward production linkages between agriculture and manufacturing sectors; ii) a significant share of manufacturing inputs is imported; iii) the resulting contraction in private investment which restrains expansion of the manufacturing and

format_quoteContradictory findings on public investment's effects show that while central government investment can enhance growth, it may negatively impact when financed through cuts.format_quote

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