Market efficiency

This paper analyzes the structural mechanisms that produce and sustain the 74•89% client loss rate documented by European (ESMA/MiFID II), American (CFTC), and Australian (ASIC) regulators across the retail foreign exchange industry. We identify four layers of structural bias: (i) the B-book and hybrid dealer model, in which the broker's profit is inversely correlated with client performance; (ii) a quadruple opacity in execution infrastructure, comprising the MetaTrader Manager Terminal, the Bridge and LP rebate architecture, the voice execution channel reserved for institutional participants, and the cumulative friction calculation invisible to retail; (iii) a five-tier acquisition funnel • introducing brokers, digital affiliates, commercial educators, signal providers, and copytrading platforms • whose aggregate function is the continuous production of depositing accounts rather than profitable traders; and (iv) a pseudoscientific pedagogical corpus, centered on technical analysis, whose empirical status has been systematically rejected by five decades of academic literature.  Working paper adapted from: CrossVol Research (2026). FX Traders vs Brokers: Vanilla and Exotic Options, Forwards, and Other OTC Structures: What Retail Traders Never See. Amazon Kindle, ASIN: B0GX31WB5F. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GX31WB5F

The article analyses the role of public policies to correct market failures in order to foster eficiency, fairness, economic growth and stability, and the perils that may arise when public power increases excessively and may cause undesired disturbances in market with negative consequences for competitiviness well on production or on distribution, and diminishing the general well-being of population.

The Cable Is Anything But Calm GBP/USD -affectionately called "Cable" by veteran traders -has never been a pair for the faint-hearted. In 2026, it remains one of the most actively traded and emotionally demanding pairs in the forex market. From the Bank of England's ongoing rate-cutting cycle to the Federal Reserve's conditional easing posture, the macro backdrop is a minefield of conflicting signals. Since January 2026, the pair has swung from 1.38 highs to a correction near 1.32 in April, before recovering to the 1.35-1.36 range in May. That's a 600-pip round trip in under five months -and that's not a bug. That's Cable doing exactly what it always does. The question isn't whether the volatility will stop. It won't. The question is: are you positioned to profit from it, or are you being whipsawed by it? For traders who've made the shift to automation, the answer increasingly is the former.

This article focuses on the risk and security of investments in Islamic financial instruments compared to conventional financial instruments. It seeks to answer the question: Are Islamic financial instruments a safe haven for investors? To this end, the study employs time-series econometric modeling methodologies to analyze volatility, using monthly data from 2015 to 2024. The risk of Islamic and conventional financial markets has been modeled, followed by estimating the Value at Risk (VaR) of these instruments based on their return and variance patterns.

The findings indicate that Islamic financial instruments exhibit lower volatility compared to their conventional counterparts. In other words, the risk associated with Islamic financial instruments is lower than that of conventional instruments. This result aligns with the empirical literature reviewed for the period 2009 to 2024. The review of the empirical literature over this period reveals that during times of economic uncertainty, Islamic financial instruments had lower risk compared to conventional ones. However, during periods of economic stability, conventional instruments demonstrated lower risk than Islamic instruments.

Additionally, the results from the calculation of Value at Risk for three financial instruments—Islamic treasury bills (as a measure of Islamic financial instruments), foreign exchange, and stocks (as measures of conventional financial instruments)—show that the VaR for Islamic treasury bills has consistently been lower than that of the two conventional instruments. These findings can contribute to designing a better financial system that is both more resilient to unexpected financial shocks and supportive of a more stable financial framework.

This paper presents a constructive method to generate an infinite sequence of triples that contradict the finiteness assertion of the ABC conjecture. By employing a recursive framework (𝐴 𝑛 , 𝐵 𝑛 , 𝐶 𝑛) derived from the Odd Pythagorean Theorem, we demonstrate that the radical rad(𝐴 𝑛 𝐵 𝑛 𝐶 𝑛) exhibits a slower growth rate compared to 𝐶 𝑛 due to the repeated reuse of prime factors-a phenomenon defined as "Radical Collapse." We prove that for any odd integer base 𝑎 > 1, the quality factor 𝑄 𝑛 = log 𝐶 𝑛 / log rad(𝐴 𝑛 𝐵 𝑛 𝐶 𝑛) eventually exceeds unity and converges monotonically to 1 + as 𝑛 → ∞. This systematic production of high-quality triples provides a formal disproof of the conjecture's core limitation.

Latency arbitrage-trading against a price quote that has not yet incorporated information already reflected in a faster reference market-is among the most frequently discussed and least formally documented phenomena in retail foreign exchange. While the academic literature on low-latency trading in equity markets is mature, the retail FX context differs in structurally important ways: prices are intermediated through a chain of liquidity providers, aggregators, and brokers; the reference market against which a quote may be judged stale is fragmented rather than consolidated; and the principal counterparty to a retail latency arbitrageur is frequently the broker itself rather than another trader. This paper surveys the mechanism of latency arbitrage in retail FX, organises the strategy space into a taxonomy, examines the infrastructure that determines feasibility, and analyses the detection methods and countermeasures that brokers deploy in response. We frame the broker-arbitrageur relationship as a coevolutionary dynamic and connect it to the established literature on toxic arbitrage and the economics of trading speed. The treatment is descriptive and integrative: it aims to render a phenomenon well understood by practitioners legible to a market-microstructure research audience, and to identify open questions amenable to empirical work.

This article is focused on the problem of the data acquisition and analysis of data about quality of life of hearing disabled people in the region. Data were obtained from disabled citizens of Pardubice region, Czech Republic. To obtain the data was used a questionnaire survey. For processing the obtained data were used the statistical methods, selected visualization techniques and data mining method. The achievements of this research are relations and links influencing quality of life of disabled people and basic characteristics of hearing disabled people. This is the basis for future social policy making in the Pardubice region. The methods used in solving the problem can be implemented also in other regions (in the level Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics 3).

The apparent conflict between the level of resources dedicated to technical analysis by practitioners and academic theories of market efficiency is a long-standing puzzle. We offer an alternative explanation for the value of technical analysis that is consistent with market efficiency -specifically, that it reveals information about liquidity provision. We find evidence consistent with the hypotheses that support and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth on the limit order book and that moving average forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. These results demonstrate that technical analysis can have value even in an efficient market, and provide a practical method for estimating the level of liquidity on the book.

The apparent conflict between the level of resources dedicated to technical analysis by practitioners and academic theories of market efficiency is a long-standing puzzle. We explore a previously unexamined feature of technical analysis -namely, its relation to liquidity provision. We demonstrate that support and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth on the limit order book and moving average forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. Furthermore, we show that these relationships stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the limit order book. There is an ongoing belief in the investment community that technical analysis, which involves the study of past price and volume data, can be used to infer the direction of future prices. A substantial segment of the investments industry is dedicated to this form of analysis, with virtually all investment banks and trading firms employing some technical trading strategies. 1 Many different types of technical indicators are used in practice, including candlestick charts, moving average forecasts, point and figure charts, and support and resistance levels. Technical analysts view these measures as a way to capitalize on identifiable price patterns that stem from investors' repetitive behaviors. Despite its popularity among practitioners, academics have historically dismissed technical analysis. They argue that it is inconsistent with the theory of market efficiency, which states that all available information must be reflected in security prices. Much of the finance literature relies on the assumption of market efficiency because, in its absence, investors could earn excess profits while assuming little or no risk, a state that is not sustainable in equilibrium. The traditional academic wisdom and investment community practices appear to be at odds. In hopes of resolving this conflict, many researchers have undertaken studies of technical analysis. Some have found results consistent with the practitioners' view by providing evidence that technical analysis can predict price movements or by developing models of (inefficient) markets in which investors benefit from conditioning on historical information. For example,

The aim of this paper is testing the efficiency of the future market of soy in Brazil through cointegration analysis for spot and future prices, using Johansen procedure, for the period of Jan 2005 to Dec 2005. The results showed that soy s pot and future prices are non stationary of first order integration. Statistical tests confirme d the existence

Evaluation and demonstration of soybean technology was conducted at Karat zuria district of Konso zone in Southern Ethiopia in 2022/23 cropping season with the objectives of to analyze socioeconomic profitability, farmers' preference and acceptability under farmers' conditions. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate newly a released soybean variety with production technology. The district was purposively selected based on potentiality for Soybean production. Two kebele's were selected purposively based on potential of the crop.Farmers, development agents and kebele level administrative bodies were trained by the researchers. It was implemented on 20 farmer's field and 2 FTCs at 200m 2 areas of adjacent fields with 40cm*5cm spacing b/n row and plant respectively and 60 kg/ha seed rate and 100 kg/ha NPS. All recommended agronomic practices were applied equally to all fields and the fields were closely supervised and properly managed. The highest (1,858.5 kg/ha) and (1,862.5kg/ ha) grain yield were recorded from Nyala variety at farmers field and FTC respectively. The result showed that there is no that much statistically significant difference at 5% probability level between Nyala and Gazale. The cost benefit analysis results also showed that using Gazale (37,873.75 ETB/ ha) can make farmers' slightly profitable than Nyala (35,455 ETB/ ha). On both locations, even if Nyala performed better yield, farmers preferred Gazale variety in some important attributes, mainly in the attributes of seed size, seed color and marketability. Extension materials like banners, posters, brochures, leaflets were used during the field day to promote the technology. Therefore, Arba Minch Agricultural research centers and seed producer cooperatives should multiply the seeds of Gazale variety the extension system of the Konso zone, Karat zuria district office of Agriculture and similar agro-ecology should expand the soybean.

We analyse the temporal changes in the cross correlations of returns on the New York Stock Exchange. We show that lead-lag relationships between daily returns of stocks vanished in less than twenty years. We have found that even for high frequency data the asymmetry of time dependent cross-correlation functions has a decreasing tendency, the position of their peaks are shifted towards the origin while these peaks become sharper and higher, resulting in a diminution of the Epps effect. All these findings indicate that the market becomes increasingly efficient.

Dalam upaya mewujudkan swasembada pangan yang berkelanjutan, tidak cukup hanya berfokus pada peningkatan produksi di tingkat budidaya. Salah satu titik kritis dalam rantai pasok pangan, khususnya beras, adalah tahap pascapanen dan pengolahan. Di sinilah keberadaan Bangunan Rumah Rice Milling Unit (RMU) menjadi sangat strategis.

This paper develops a formal model of analyst earnings forecasts that discriminates between rational behavior and that induced by cognitive biases. In the model, analysts are Bayesians who issue sequential forecasts that combine new information with the information contained in past forecasts. The model enables us to test for cognitive biases, and to quantify their magnitude. We estimate the model and find strong evidence that analysts are overconfident about the precision of their own information and also subject to cognitive dissonance bias. But they are able to make corrections for bias in the forecasts of others. We show that our measure of overconfidence varies with book-to-market ratio in a way consistent with the findings of . We also demonstrate the existence of these biases in international data. 3 1 ,t t FV th analyst's forecast and past forecasts). The magnitude of the loss of accuracy in the forecast is large, ranging from around 10% for early forecasts to over 20% for late forecasts. The models developed in Sections III and IV provide an explanation for the observed inefficiency in terms of cognitive biases. Some research suggests that analyst forecasts exhibit an optimistic bias. That is, the average analyst earnings forecast exceeds actual earnings . The apparent optimistic bias may be due to incentive conflicts, 5 may be rational, 6 or may simply reflect measurement error. 7 The bias has been identified in consensus forecasts (Lim 2001) and is more pronounced at longer forecast horizons (e.g. one year) than at shorter horizons (e.g. one month) . We find evidence of an optimistic bias consistent with previous work but our primary focus is on biases of over-or underreaction. The second set of biases involves over-and underreaction to information. That is, when analysts incorporate new information into their forecasts, the new information does not receive the rational Bayesian weight. This phenomenon may be due to cognitive biases or incentive conflicts. 1

Liquidity providers on the NYSE make faster quote adjustments towards equilibrium spreads and depths than they do on NASDAQ. Liquidity providers in both markets make faster spread and depth adjustments for stocks with more frequent trading, greater return volatility, higher prices, smaller market capitalizations, and smaller trade sizes. We find that stocks with greater information-based trading and in more competitive trading environments exhibit faster quote adjustments. The speed of quote adjustment is faster after decimalization in both markets. These results are robust and not driven by differences in stock attributes between the two markets or time periods. Overall, our results indicate that stock attributes, market structure, and tick size exert a significant impact on the speed of quote adjustment.

In this study, we use a simple 2-period game theoretic model to determine a mutually acceptable interest rate for a construction loan. This mutually acceptable interest rate is the rate that makes a developer indifferent between using 100% equity financing and a construction loan. It is also the highest interest rate that a developer is willing to pay and a bank is willing to lend. The three risk factors identified in the model are the loss, leverage and first-phase loan ratios. Our analytical and numerical analyses indicate that the derived mutually acceptable interest rate has desirable properties as the rate increases with an increase in the three identified risk factors.

This paper provides evidence that involuntary unemployment, and the segmentation of labor markets into firms offering "good" and "bad" jobs, may both arise as a consequence of contractual incompleteness. We provide a simple model that illustrates how unemployment and market segmentation may jointly emerge as part of a market equilibrium in environments where work effort is not third-party verifiable. Using experimental labor markets that differ only in the verifiability of effort, we demonstrate empirically that contractual incompleteness can cause unemployment and segmentation. Our data are also consistent with the key channels through which the model explains the emergence of both phenomena.

This study examines whether small sample bias affects the standard inference about the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis. Our findings indicate that the bias is large enough to result in rejection of the efficient market hypothesis even when it is true. We use bootstrapping to adjust for the bias and find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for the Swiss franc and French franc. We also find that the bias plays a significant role in the inference that expectation error causes inefficiency in the foreign exchange markets. After bias adjustment, the rational expectation hypothesis holds even at one month-horizon.

A ex istência de dependência nos retornos de ativos financeiros tem recebido considerável atenção na literatura de finanças, a fim de auxiliar na formulação de estratégias de retorno esperado positivo e na gestão do risco de portfólios. No entanto, a hipótese de eficiência de mercado pressupõe que as novas informações são incorporadas de forma imediata ao ativo e a dependência entre os retornos é nula ou não significativa. Tendo por base essa ideia, o objetivo desse trabalho é analisar o comportamento da dependência serial dos retornos das ações do Ibovespa, fazendo uso do modelo autorregressivo quantílico (QAR). São utilizados log-retornos diários do índice Bovespa, de 02 de janeiro de 2008 a 13 de junho de 2012. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que os quantis extremos estão associados a rendimentos positivos ou negativos e apresentam dependência forte e distinta entre si. Já nos quantis centrais a dependência é próxima à zero, semelhante ao modelo de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO). Também se identificou um efeito assimétrico dos investidores, associado ao estado de mercado e à localização no quantil. Além disso, observou-se que altos coeficientes autorregressivos quantílicos, positivos ou negativos, resultaram em coeficientes de mesmo sinal nos próximos quantis. Percebe-se, assim, que o Ibovespa se comporta de maneira distinta dos pressupostos da hipótese de eficiência de mercado na forma fraca. Palavras-chave: modelo autorregressivo quantílico, eficiência de merca do, dependência.

The objective of this paper was to verify the interrelationships between the stock returns of 33 Brazilian companies that make up the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA), from January 2006 to June 2018, using the principal components analysis (PCA), applied on the residuals of the VAR-GARCH model. In general, the results of this study revealed the presence of interrelation between the stock returns which compose the IBOVESPA, and that the interdependence and the correlation pattern vary over time, which can directly impact the investment decisions of economic and financial agents, especially concerning the diversification of their asset portfolios.

Psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood. This paper examines the relation between morning sunshine at a country's leading stock exchange and market index stock returns that day at 26 stock exchanges internationally from 1982-97. Sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with daily stock returns. After controlling for sunshine, rain and snow are unrelated to returns. There were positive net-of-transaction costs profits to be made from substantial use of weather-based strategies, but the magnitude of the gains was fairly modest. These findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price-setting. I need to laugh, and when the sun is out, I've got something I can laugh about. I feel good in a special way; I'm in love and it's a sunny day. Good Day Sunshine, Good Day Sunshine, Good Day Sunshine We take a walk, the sun is shining down, Burns my feet as they touch the ground.

This paper examines the time-series relations among expected return, risk, and bookto-market (B/M) at the portfolio level. I "nd that B/M predicts economically and statistically signi"cant time-variation in expected stock returns. Further, B/M is strongly associated with changes in risk, as measured by the Fama and French (1993) (Journal of Financial Economics, 33, 3}56) three-factor model. After controlling for risk, B/M provides no incremental information about expected returns. The evidence suggests that the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than a characteristics-based model.

This paper studies some properties of stochastic dominance (SD) for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors, especially for the third order SD (TSD). We call the former ascending stochastic dominance (ASD) and the latter descending stochastic dominance (DSD). We first discuss the basic property of ASD and DSD linking the ASD and DSD of the first three orders to expected-utility maximization for riskaverse and risk-seeking investors. Thereafter, we prove that a hierarchy exists in both ASD and DSD relationships and that the higher orders of ASD and DSD cannot be replaced by the lower orders of ASD and DSD. Furthermore, we study conditions in which third order ASD preferences will be 'the opposite of' or 'the same as' their counterpart third order DSD preferences. In addition, we construct examples to illustrate all the properties developed in this paper. The theory developed in this paper provides investors with tools to identify first, second, and third order ASD and DSD prospects and thus they could make wiser choices on their investment decision.

We use machine learning with a cross-sectional research design to predict governance controversies and to develop a measure of the governance component of the environmental, social, governance (ESG) metrics. Based on comprehensive governance data from 2,517 companies over a period of 10 years and investigating nine machine-learning algorithms, we find that governance controversies can be predicted with high predictive performance. Our proposed governance rating methodology has two unique advantages compared with traditional ESG ratings: it rates companies' compliance with governance responsibilities and it has predictive validity. Our study demonstrates a solution to what is likely the greatest challenge for the finance industry today: how to assess a company's sustainability with validity and accuracy. Prior to this study, the ESG rating industry and the literature have not provided evidence that widely adopted governance ratings are valid. This study describes the only methodology for developing governance performance ratings based on companies' compliance with governance responsibilities and for which there is evidence of predictive validity.

This article investigates the tail risk-return trade-off in African stock markets using panel data from 741 companies in 12 countries spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The Generalized Least Square (GLS) and Fixed Effects (FE) methods are used to analyze the direct effect of tail risk on expected returns. We further apply Fama and Macbeth's sequential estimation technique to determine whether the risk is priced. Unlike kurtosis, most tail risk factors positively and significantly explain expected returns on African stock markets. Additionally, we find that, among the variables considered, monthly loss and skewness are the ones with significant risk prices. These results are robust to alternative model specifications and the consideration of region and country specificities.

Recent empirical research on the microstructure of the foreign exchange market has documented increased exchange rate volatility for periods of higher trader participation. Ito, Lyons, and Melvin (1998) find that lunch-hour exchange rate variance doubles in 1994 when Tokyo traders were permitted to participate in the market making between 12:00 P.M. and 1:30 P.M. The evidence poses a wide range of questions: Why does greater market participation increase volatility? Do competitive financial markets like the foreign exchange market provide the right incentives for market entry of speculative traders? And if not, can a I thank Dirk Bergemann, Ulrich Hege, David Hirshleifer (the editor), Charles

This study examines the influence of behavioral biases on retail forex trading performance using a structured dataset of 500 simulated trades. The research integrates behavioral finance theory with empirical-style analysis to explore how emotions, risk management, and trader characteristics affect outcomes. The findings suggest that psychological biases significantly reduce trading efficiency and consistency.

This paper reports the results of regression analysis of the day of the week effects using daily observations on the five indexes representing the European emerging stock markets, the Czech PX Index, the Hungarian Budapest SE Index, the Polish Warsaw SE WIG Index, the Slovak SAX Index, and the Turkish Istanbul SE National 100 Index. In order to investigate 2008 financial crisis of the weekday effect anomaly, the period is divided into sub-periods. The first sub-period is covering from Monday 3rd January 2005 to Friday 30th May 2008 while the second sub-period is from Monday 2nd June 2008 to Friday 26th November 2010. The paper new reports anomalies on the examined stock markets appear only during the period of financial crisis.

Spatial and intertemporal integration of food markets in developing countries are important for the price system to efficiently allocate resources and products across regions and time. India's liberalisation of food crop marketing in the early 1990's has renewed interest in evaluating the consequences for market integration. Not surprisingly, this interest is widespread because structural change and liberalisation have occurred in the agricultural sectors of many developing countries. Given the importance of this topic there have been many international studies on agricultural market integration. The influential research in the 1990's criticised the early reliance o n correlation analysis due to the prevalence of temporal trends in agricultural commodity prices. These studies commonly used Engle-Granger type cointegration techniques to overcome the statistical inference problems. The finding of cointegration was presented as evidence of market integration. This paper provides a critique of the reliance of these studies on the analysis of pairwise price relationships using correlation and cointegration techniques. It is shown by a simple example using Indian wholesale w heat prices that analyses which ignore the effects of simultaneity are flawed and any conclusions about market integration based on this methodology, will be invalid. A conceptual framework is developed which formally models market price interdependencies in a simultaneous system of temporal price equations. Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to estimate the minimum amount of information needed to identify the market system. This procedure derives significant long run cross-price, own-price, non-price and short run equilibrating price elasticity measures which are used to indicate the degree of market integration. Evidence is provided on market integration for Indian wheat, jower, paddy rice, groundnut, rapeseed and mustard seed. Comparisons are made before and after agricultural marketing liberalisation.

This Research paper is about the "Impact of Merger Announcement on Selected Scripts of CNX Nifty". The report begins with its Main Concept of Study which is Efficient Market Hypothesis. The study looks at the Impact of Merger Announcement on stock price of selected scripts of NSE over a period from January 2007 to June 2015. The study is significant in the way it tries to statistically measure actual volatility in the Indian market. The step-by-step analysis of volatility in Nifty using students'-test with-30 days to +30 days window, will give a clear picture about the possible extent of volatility from similar events in the future. The Findings and Conclusion, is from the whole study what the final word is, is there any impact of dividend Announcement and whether the Indian Stock market is semi strong efficient market or not.

This work was carried out in collaboration among all authors. Author SM conceptualized and designed the study, collected the data, performed the analysis, and prepared the first draft of the manuscript. Author MRS provided methodological guidance in study design, data collection, and analysis, and critically edited all versions of the manuscript. Authors AP, NRCD and SVM supervised the study, reviewed the analysis and offered critical intellectual inputs and suggestions. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

The study examined the structure, conduct and performance of pig marketing in Abia State, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to determine the socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents, ascertain the market structure, conduct and market performance pig marketing, and determine the factors influencing marketing margins and efficiency among respondents in the study area. A purposive sampling technique was used in selecting three major markets involved in pig marketing in the study area (Umuahia North Local Government Area of Abia State). Sixty pig entrepreneurs involved in pig marketing were randomly selected for the study. Primary data were collected using a well-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistical tools such as frequency distributions, means, percentages, Gini coefficient, and regression models. The result showed that most of the respondents studied were male, married, educated, young, and well-experienced in pig marketing. More so, there was price discrimination within the markets and a high level of inefficiency in the market structure of the marketers, with a Gini coefficient of 0.539. This implies a high concentration of pig marketing in the hands of few marketers. In addition, 93% of the pig marketers indicated that their pricing behaviour was determined by forces of demand and supply, while 100% of the marketers indicated price bargaining and about 87% indicated marketing cost and margin. The result of the marketers' conduct was evidence of buyers' ability to bargain well in price determination and an incidence of price discrimination. The pig marketers made a marketing margin of N 500 per kg and a profit of N 276.02. The return on investment was 0.26 meaning that for every one naira invested 0.26 kobo is returned indicating that pig marketing is lucrative and worth undertaking in the study area. Cost of transportation, the amount spent on labour, and quantity of pigs sold were significant factors influencing marketing margin while age, years of experience, access to credit, and income were significant factors influencing marketing efficiency. The study therefore recommended that males, married, educated, and young with the necessary experience should be financially supported to go into pig marketing. Government and other stakeholders in the pig market should implement necessary policies that will encourage the right pricing behaviour among entrepreneurs involved in pig marketing.

This study examined whether the share prices of companies listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange follow the Random Walk Hypothesis. The research was motivated by the fact that investors are interested in knowing whether past share prices have a propensity to forecast future share prices. The period covered by the research was January 2014 to December 2014. The main objective of the study investigated the possibility that share prices follow the Random Walk Hypothesis. The data was analysed using the Chisquare Test, the Runs Test and the Auto-correlation Test. The findings showed that changes in share prices on the ZSE refute the Random Walk Hypothesis. The study concluded that share price shifts follow some pattern or trend and that historical price changes can be used to predict future price movements. The study also concluded that the ZSE provides an opportunity for investors to create wealth as they take advantage of its weak-form inefficiency.

The unmediated call auction is a useful trading mechanism to aggregate dispersed information. Its ability to incorporate information of a single informed insider, however, is less well understood. We analyse this question by presenting a simple call auction game where both auction prices and limit prices of uninformed traders re?ect potential insider information. The predictions of the model are tested

This paper reports the results of tests on the weak-form market efficiency applied to the PSI-20 index prices of the Lisbon Stock Market from January 1993 to December 2006. As an emerging stock market, it is unlikely that it is fully information-efficient, but we show that the level of weak-form efficiency has increased in recent years. We use a serial correlation test, a runs test, an augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the multiple variance ratio test proposed by for the hypothesis that the stock market index follows a random walk. The tests are performed using daily, weekly and monthly returns for the whole period and for five sub-periods which reflect different trends in the market. We find mixed evidence, but on the whole, our results show that the Portuguese stock market index has been approaching a random walk behavior since year 2000, with a decrease in the serial dependence of returns. (JEL G14; G15)

This paper examines day of the week and month of the year effects in seventeen European stock market indexes in the period 1994-2007. We discuss the shortcomings of model specifications and tests used in previous work, and propose a simpler specification, usable for detecting all types of calendar effects. Recognizing that returns are non-normally distributed, autocorrelated and that the residuals of linear regressions are variant over time, we use statically robust estimation methodologies, including bootstrapping and GARCH modeling. Although returns tend to be lower in the months of August and September, we do not find strong evidence of across-the-board calendar effects, as the most favorable evidence is only country-specific. Additionally, using rolling windows regressions, we find that the stronger country-specific calendar effects are not stable over the whole sample period, casting additional doubt on the economic significance of calendar effects. We conclude that our results are not immune to the critique that calendar effects may only be a "chimera" delivered by intensive data mining.

This paper reports the results of tests on the weak-form market efficiency applied to the PSI-20 index prices of the Lisbon Stock Market from January 1993 to December 2006. As an emerging stock market, it is unlikely that it is fully information-efficient, but we show that the level of weak-form efficiency has increased in recent years. We use a serial correlation test, a runs test, an augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the multiple variance ratio test proposed by for the hypothesis that the stock market index follows a random walk. The tests are performed using daily, weekly and monthly returns for the whole period and for five sub-periods which reflect different trends in the market. We find mixed evidence, but on the whole, our results show that the Portuguese stock market index has been approaching a random walk behavior since year 2000, with a decrease in the serial dependence of returns. (JEL G14; G15)

Widely-cited research by argues that changes in mood resulting from Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) drive changes in investor risk aversion and cause seasonal patterns in aggregate stock returns around the world. In this paper we reexamine the so-called SAD effect by replicating and extending . We study the psychological underpinnings of the SAD hypothesis and show that the time-series predictions of the SAD model do not correspond to the seasonal patterns in depression found in the general population. We also investigate the cross-sectional prediction that SAD has a greater effect on stock markets in countries where SAD is more prevalent and find no relation between the prevalence of SAD and stock returns. Finally, we document that the SAD effect is mechanically driven by an overlapping dummy-variable specification and higher returns around the turn of the year.

Turkey is facing a slight but remarkable reversal in population flows between settlements, a movement known as 'counterurbanisation'. The aim of this paper is to investigate the new patterns of population flows linked to changes in employment. To explore these patterns, the paper focuses on the causality linkages between urban-rural migration and rural employment, with a special focus on entrepreneurship, at the NUTS II level. Data used in this study are obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. To determine the link between counterurbanisation and entrepreneurship, a multivariate statistical technique, viz. linear regression analysis, was used. This paper is the first attempt to explore the new trends in migration and employment in Turkey while offering a contemporary context for the different patterns of causal relations between counterurbanisation and entrepreneurship. The results suggest that, in Turkey, the major motivation still remains the pursuit of employment.

Salah satu persoalan pertanian adalah sistem penjualan yang masih konvensial  dimana jual beli hasil panen berupa dari petani ke konsumen masih menggunakan sistem konvensial. Petani menjual hasil panen ke agen,  lalu kepihak grosir kemudian ke padagang eceran dan terakhir konsumen yang membutuhkan beras. Ini  yang  mengakibatkan hasil panen di jual dengan harga yang mahal dipihak konsumen akhir . Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk  membuat perancangan sebuah sistem e-commerce untuk jual beli hasil pertanian berupa beras, yang mana nantinya sistem ini akan membantu petani beras untuk memudahkan dalam hal jual beli beras dari petani kepada konsumen secara langsung tanpa ada perantara pihak ke tiga atau sering dikenal dengan istilah ‘tengkulak’. Dengan adanya perancangan sistem e-commerce hasil pertanian berupa beras ini maka sistem penjualan yang masih konvensial bisa langsung di implemantasikan sehingga konsumen bisa langsung membeli beras tanpa perantara lagi

This study estimates the term structure of interest rates with treasury bills. A transformed model is used for this measurement. In the empirical model, volatility of 12 month maturity treasury bills are used for dependent variable, and volatility of 1, 3, 6 ...

We investigate profit-maximizing versioning plans for an information goods monopolist. The analysis employs data obtained from a web-based field experiment in which potential buyers were offered information goods in varied price-quality configurations. Maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) methods are used to estimate parameters describing the distribution of utility function parameters across potential buyers of the good. The resulting estimates are used to examine the impact of versioning on seller profits and market efficiency.

We analyze the impact of risk-aversion on the trading activity of a strategic insider in an asset market with explicit trading rules. As she finds it optimal to trade more aggressively and reveal her private information at a faster pace than her risk-neutral counterpart, risk-aversion is beneficial to the efficiency of the market. Because her optimal trading strategy is identified by a min-max choice mechanism, so that in any round of trading she first identifies the worst market conditions and then selects the optimal market order against such conditions, we establish an equivalence with an alternative formulation in which an ambiguity-averse insider faces Knightian uncertain over market conditions and seeks to implement a robust trading strategy.

This study measured the effect of increased concentration on industry market power and cost efficiency, using a bilateral oligopoly model. Cost efficiency gains dominate market power effects from increase in industry concentration. This result is consistent with previous finding that consolidation in the U.S. beef industry is efficiency driven.

While it is commonly believed that derivative instruments are a recent invention, we document the existence of forward contracts for the sale of wool in medieval England around 700 years ago. The contracts were generally entered into by English monasteries, who frequently sold their wool for up to twenty years in advance to mostly foreign and particularly Italian merchants. Employing a unique source of data collected by hand from the historical records, we determine the interest rates implied in these transactions and we also examine the efficiency of the forward and spot markets. The calculated interest rates average around 20%, in accordance with available information concerning the interest rates used in other types of transactions at that time. Perhaps surprisingly, we also find little evidence of informational inefficiencies in these markets.

While it is commonly believed that derivative instruments are a recent invention, we document the existence of forward contracts for the sale of wool in medieval England around 700 years ago. The contracts were generally entered into by English monasteries, who frequently sold their wool for up to twenty years in advance to mostly foreign and particularly Italian merchants. Employing a unique source of data collected by hand from the historical records, we determine the interest rates implied in these transactions and we also examine the efficiency of the forward and spot markets. The calculated interest rates average around 20%, in accordance with available information concerning the interest rates used in other types of transactions at that time. Perhaps surprisingly, we also find little evidence of informational inefficiencies in these markets.