Alan Gerber

Zero Credit Policymaking: Governmental Performance, Partisan Polarization and the Politics of Evidence-Based Medicine

by Alan Gerber and Eric Patashnik

papers.ssrn.com

... Why would a democracy fail to enact and implement policies that serve the interests of a very... more

Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods using a Large-Scale Field Experiment on Voter Mobilization

Please do not cite without authors' permission. Comments and suggestions welcome.

Download

Do Phone Calls Increase Voter Turnout? An Update

This article estimates the extent to which nonpartisan phone calls from commercial phone banks in... more This article estimates the extent to which nonpartisan phone calls from commercial phone banks increase voter turnout. Prior to the 1998 and 2002 elections, randomized field experiments were conducted in which more than 1 million subjects were randomly assigned to treatment and control conditions. The results indicate that this type of phone calling campaign is ineffective.

EQUAL VOTES, EQUAL MONEY: COURT-ORDERED REDISTRICTING AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES IN THE AMERICAN STATES

We examine the relationship between legislative representation and public finances. Baker v. Carr... more We examine the relationship between legislative representation and public finances. Baker v. Carr and subsequent court cases eradicated severe disparities in the population in U.S. state legislative districts. Most prior research, which has focused on the level of state aggregates, found little effect of equalization of representation on the distribution of public money. We examine the geographic distribution of money

The Illusion of Learning from Observational Research

Abstract: Theory-testing occupies a central place within social science, but what kinds of eviden... more Abstract: Theory-testing occupies a central place within social science, but what kinds of evidence count toward a meaningful test of a causal proposition? W eoffer two analytic results that have important implications for the relative merits of observationaland experimental inquiry. The first result addresses the optimal weight that should be assigned to unbiased experimental research and potentially biased observational research.

Testing for Publication Bias in Political Science

If the publication decisions of journals are a function of the statistical significance of re- se... more If the publication decisions of journals are a function of the statistical significance of re- search findings, the published literature may suffer from "publication bias." This paper describes a method for detecting publication bias. We point out that to achieve statisti- cal significance, the effect size must be larger in small samples. If publications tend to be biased against statistically

format_quotePublished treatment effects are always overestimated compared to true effects due to truncated normal distribution properties.format_quote

Download

Reassessing the Effects of Personality on Political Attitudes and Behaviors: Aggregate Relationships and Subgroup Differences

Alan S. Gerber Yale University Professor Department of Political Science Institution for Social a... more

Personality and Political Behavior

Using data from two recent surveys, we analyze the relationship between personality traits, as me... more Using data from two recent surveys, we analyze the relationship between personality traits, as measured by the Five-factor Model, and political participation, political ideology, partisanship, and vote choice. We confirm previous findings, including the strong positive association between the personality trait of Openness and liberalism and between Conscientiousness and conservatism, and also report several new results. We merged administrative records containing actual turnout and party registration status with our survey data. Using this novel approach, we confirm that the strong relationship between personality and politics holds when actual behavior is substituted for survey reports. We also measure the association of personality and several forms of political participation, including voting, contributing, and volunteering. The effect of personality on participation is often comparable to, or larger in magnitude than, the effect of factors that are central in earlier models of turnout, such as religious attendance, age, education, and income. 1 recent decades political science has only rarely taken note of, or contributed research on, the role of personality in political behavior.

Download

Rational Learning and Partisan Attitudes

ABSTRACT

Estimating the Effect of Campaign Spending on Election Outcomes Using Instrumental Variables

The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment

Download

Personal Income and Attitudes toward Redistribution: A Study of Lottery Winners

In order to estimate the effects of affluence on political attitudes, we conducted interviews wit... more In order to estimate the effects of affluence on political attitudes, we conducted interviews with 342 people who had won the lottery between 1983 and 2000 in an Eastern state. A parallel survey of the general public was also conducted. Comparing winners of varying amounts, we find that lottery-induced affluence increases hostility toward estate taxes, marginally increases hostility towards government

Download

Do Statistical Reporting Standards Affect What Is Published? Publication Bias in Two Leading Political Science Journals

We examine,the APSR and the AJPS for the presence of publication bias due to reliance on the 0.05... more We examine,the APSR and the AJPS for the presence of publication bias due to reliance on the 0.05 significance level. Our analysis employs a broad interpretation of publication bias, which we define as the outcome that occurs when, for whatever reason, publication practices lead to bias in the published parameter estimates. We examine the effect of the 0.05 significance

Does The Media Matter? A Field Experiment Measuring the Effect of Newspapers on Voting Behavior and Political Opinions

There is substantial evidence that media sources have identifiable political slants, but there ha... more There is substantial evidence that media sources have identifiable political slants, but there has been relatively little study until recently of the effects on political views and behaviors of media bias or access. This paper reports the results of a natural field experiment to measure the effect of exposure to newspapers on political behavior and opinion. The Washington DC area

format_quoteStatistically significant effects noted, with Post exposure linked to greater support for Democrats despite short intervention period.format_quote

Download

Can political science literatures be believed? A study of publication bias in the APSR and the AJPS

... Alan Gerber Yale University Neil Malhotra Stanford University Page 2. Abstract ... dependent ... more

Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections: Results from Six Door-to-Door Canvassing Experiments

The Journal of Politics, 2003

elections, randomized voter mobilization experiments were conducted in Bridgeport, Columbus, Detr... more elections, randomized voter mobilization experiments were conducted in Bridgeport, Columbus, Detroit, Minneapolis, Raleigh, and St. Paul. Names appearing on official lists of registered voters were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. A few days before Election Day, the treatment group received a face-to-face contact from a coalition of nonpartisan student and community organizations, encouraging them to vote. After the election, voter turnout records were used to compare turnout rates among people assigned to treatment and control groups. Consistent with the recent experimental results reported by , the findings here indicate that face-to-face voter mobilization was effective in stimulating voter turnout across a wide spectrum of local elections.

format_quoteThe intent-to-treat effect of canvassing is statistically significant at 2.1 percentage points, indicating its potential to increase aggregate turnout levels.format_quote

Download

The Effect of a Nonpartisan Get-Out-the-Vote Drive: An Experimental Study of Leafletting

The Journal of Politics, 2000

Download

African Americans' Congressional Careers and the Democratic House Delegation

The Journal of Politics, 1996

... This view is widely held but still a matter of Page 12. 842 Alan Gerber ... The future in the... more

The Mismeasure of Campaign Spending: Evidence from the 1990 U.S. House Elections

The Journal of Politics, 1994

... communication expenditures. If the share of money devoted to direct voter contact is unrelate... more

A Cautionary Note on the Use of Matching to Estimate Causal Effects: An Empirical Example Comparing Matching Estimates to an Experimental Benchmark

Sociological Methods & Research, 2010

... the Use of Matching to Estimate Causal Effects: An Empirical Example Comparing Matching Estim... more

Uploads

Papers by Alan Gerber

Log In